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| 2. |
- Boustras, Georgios, et al.
(författare)
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Fires: fund research for citizen safety
- 2017
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Ingår i: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 551:7680, s. 300-300
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
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| 3. |
- Gwynne, Steve M.V., et al.
(författare)
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Roxborough Park Community Wildfire Evacuation Drill : Data Collection and Model Benchmarking
- 2023
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Ingår i: Fire Technology. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0015-2684 .- 1572-8099. ; 59:2, s. 879-901
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Wildfires are increasing in scale, frequency and longevity, and are affecting new locations as environmental conditions change. This paper presents a dataset collected during a community evacuation drill performed in Roxborough Park, Colorado (USA) in 2019. This is a wildland–urban interface community including approximately 900 homes. Data concerning several aspects of community response were collected through observations and surveys: initial population location, pre-evacuation times, route use, and arrival times at the evacuation assembly point. Data were used as inputs to benchmark two evacuation models that adopt different modelling approaches. The WUI-NITY platform and the Evacuation Management System model were applied across a range of scenarios where assumptions regarding pre-evacuation delays and the routes used were varied according to original data collection methods (and interpretation of the data generated). Results are mostly driven by the assumptions adopted for pre-evacuation time inputs. This is expected in communities with a low number of vehicles present on the road and relatively limited traffic congestion. The analysis enabled the sensitivity of the modelling approaches to different datasets to be explored, given the different modelling approaches adopted. The performance of the models were sensitive to the data employed (derived from either observations or self-reporting) and the evacuation phases addressed in them. This indicates the importance of monitoring the impact of including data in a model rather than simply on the data itself, as data affects models in different ways given the modelling methods employed. The dataset is released in open access and is deemed to be useful for future wildfire evacuation modelling calibration and validation efforts.
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| 4. |
- Kalogeropoulos, Nikolaos, et al.
(författare)
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Design of stochastic trigger boundaries for rural communities evacuating from a wildfire
- 2023
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Ingår i: Fire Safety Journal. - 0379-7112. ; 140
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Well-planned evacuation is an effective and often necessary tool to protect life in communities threatened by wildfire. In previous incidents, community evacuations have been called too late resulting in entrapment, such as in Mati, Greece in 2018. The most reliable method to determine the safe time to call an evacuation is through trigger boundaries, perimeters on the landscape surrounding a community where the approaching wildfire is an amount of time away from the community equal to the evacuation time. This paper presents a new tool, k-PERIL, that calculates stochastic trigger boundaries, based on the variability of wildfire behaviour around a community due to the influence of historic wind, weather and vegetation variations on the wildfire. k-PERIL is applied to the rural community of Roxborough Park, Colorado, USA, producing probabilistic trigger boundaries and showing the model's ability to find and quantify areas of elevated uncertainty of evacuation. The concept of uncertainty rosettes is introduced, which show the areas where incoming wildfires cause larger variation to the boundary location because of higher sensitivity to changes in fuel, wind or evacuation. The k-PERIL tool can be used to inform effective evacuation preparation and enhance long term planning, improving community safety and wildfire resilience.
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| 5. |
- Kinateder, Max, et al.
(författare)
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Virtual Reality for Fire Evacuation Research
- 2014
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Ingår i: Federated Conference on Computer Science and Information Systems. - 2300-5963. ; 2, s. 313-321
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Virtual reality (VR) has become a popular approach to study human behavior in fire. The present position paper analyses Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats (SWOT) of VR as a research tool for human behavior in fire. Virtual environments provide a maximum of experimental control, are easy to replicate, have relatively high ecological validity, and allow safe study of occupant behavior in scenarios that otherwise would be too dangerous. Lower ecological validity compared to field studies, ergonomic aspects, and technical limitations are the main weaknesses of the method. Increasingly realistic simulations and other technological advances provide new opportunities for this relatively young method. In this position paper, we argue that VR is a promising complementary laboratory tool in the quest to understand human behavior in fire and to improve fire safety.
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| 6. |
- Kuligowski, E., et al.
(författare)
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Evacuation modelling for bushfire : the WUI-NITY simulation platform
- 2022
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Ingår i: Australian Journal of Emergency Management. - 1324-1540. ; 37:4, s. 40-43
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The number of people who live in bushfire-prone areas around the world is growing. In Australia, in the states of Victoria and New South Wales, over 1.5 million people live in areas rated as high to extreme bushfire risk in (SGS Economics and Planning 2019). As effects of climate change increase the size and severity of bushfires, and a greater number of people move into these at-risk areas, there is a growing imperative to understand the likely evacuation outcomes of bushfireprone communities under various fire scenarios. This paper introduces a freely available simulation platform called WUI-NITY that can be used by evacuation planners and decisionmakers to forecast evacuation behaviour within affected areas, and in turn, better prepare for and respond to future bushfire events.
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| 7. |
- McNamee, Margaret, et al.
(författare)
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IAFSS agenda 2030 for a fire safe world
- 2019
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Ingår i: Fire Safety Journal. - : Elsevier BV. - 0379-7112. ; 110
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The International Association of Fire Safety Science (IAFSS) is comprised of members from some 40 countries. This paper presents the Association's thinking, developed by the Management Committee, concerning pressing research needs for the coming 10 years presented as the IAFSS Agenda 2030 for a Fire Safe World. The research needs are couched in terms of two broad Societal Grand Challenges: (1) climate change, resiliency and sustainability and (2) population growth, urbanization and globalization. The two Societal Grand Challenges include significant fire safety components, that lead both individually and collectively to the need for a number of fire safety and engineering research activities and actions. The IAFSS has identified a list of areas of research and actions in response to these challenges. The list is not exhaustive, and actions within actions could be defined, but this paper does not attempt to cover all future needs.
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| 8. |
- Mitchell, Harry, et al.
(författare)
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Integrating wildfire spread and evacuation times to design safe triggers : Application to two rural communities using PERIL model
- 2023
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Ingår i: Safety Science. - : Elsevier BV. - 0925-7535. ; 157
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The hazards posed by a wildfire increase significantly when it approaches the wildland–urban interface. Evacuation of rural communities is frequently considered by local authorities and residents. In this context, evacuation triggers are locations that when reached by the wildfire indicate it is time to evacuate. Triggers are often arbitrarily defined via identifiable landmarks, do not include a safety factor, and do not account for fire spread or how long the evacuation takes. Ill-designed triggers may not safely inform decision making. It is necessary to create evacuation triggers that take into account both how a fire spreads towards the community, and how a community evacuates. This paper outlines a framework for developing triggers through the coupling of wildfire and evacuation models. We implement the previous theory of Cova et al. (2005) and others on triggers into a tool known as PERIL for generating trigger perimeters around a community, using the fire spread model FARSITE. A safety factor is included to address uncertainties in the wildfire or evacuation calculations. PERIL was applied to two real communities for the Swinley forest community (UK), and Roxborough Park community (USA). These communities were chosen because of previous work studying their actual evacuations. PERIL, which is available in open source, can be applied to inform safer strategies for to protect rural communities threatened by wildfires.
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| 9. |
- Ronchi, Enrico, et al.
(författare)
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An open multi-physics framework for modelling wildland-urban interface fire evacuations
- 2019
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Ingår i: Safety Science. - : Elsevier BV. - 0925-7535. ; 118, s. 868-880
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Fire evacuations at wildland-urban interfaces (WUI) pose a serious challenge to the emergency services, and are a global issue affecting thousands of communities around the world. This paper presents a multi-physics framework for the simulation of evacuation in WUI wildfire incidents, including three main modelling layers: wildfire, pedestrians, and traffic. Currently, these layers have been mostly modelled in isolation and there is no comprehensive model which accounts for their integration. The key features needed for system integration are identified, namely: consistent level of refinement of each layer (i.e. spatial and temporal scales) and their application (e.g. evacuation planning or emergency response), and complete data exchange. Timelines of WUI fire events are analysed using an approach similar to building fire engineering (available vs. required safe egress times for WUI fires, i.e. WASET/WRSET). The proposed framework allows for a paradigm shift from current wildfire risk assessment and mapping tools towards dynamic fire vulnerability mapping. This is the assessment of spatial and temporal vulnerabilities based on the wildfire threat evolution along with variables related to the infrastructure, population and network characteristics. This framework allows for the integration of the three main modelling layers affecting WUI fire evacuation and aims at improving the safety of WUI communities by minimising the consequences of wildfire evacuations.
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| 10. |
- Ronchi, Enrico, et al.
(författare)
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e-Sanctuary: open multi-physics framework for modelling wildfire urban evacuation
- 2017
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- The number of evacuees worldwide during wildfire keep rising, year after year. Fire evacuations at the wildland-urban interfaces (WUI) pose a serious challenge to fire and emergency services and are a global issue affecting thousands of communities around the world. But to date, there is a lack of comprehensive tools able to inform, train or aid the evacuation response and the decision making in case of wildfire. The present work describes a novel framework for modelling wildfire urban evacuations. The framework is based on multi-physics simulations that can quantify the evacuation performance. The work argues that an integrated approached requires considering and integrating all three important components of WUI evacuation, namely: fire spread, pedestrian movement, and traffic movement. The report includes a systematic review of each model component, and the key features needed for the integration into a comprehensive toolkit.
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