| 1. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 2. |
- Hudson, Lawrence N, et al.
(författare)
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The database of the PREDICTS (Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems) project
- 2017
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Ingår i: Ecology and Evolution. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 2045-7758. ; 7:1, s. 145-188
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The PREDICTS project-Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems (www.predicts.org.uk)-has collated from published studies a large, reasonably representative database of comparable samples of biodiversity from multiple sites that differ in the nature or intensity of human impacts relating to land use. We have used this evidence base to develop global and regional statistical models of how local biodiversity responds to these measures. We describe and make freely available this 2016 release of the database, containing more than 3.2 million records sampled at over 26,000 locations and representing over 47,000 species. We outline how the database can help in answering a range of questions in ecology and conservation biology. To our knowledge, this is the largest and most geographically and taxonomically representative database of spatial comparisons of biodiversity that has been collated to date; it will be useful to researchers and international efforts wishing to model and understand the global status of biodiversity.
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| 3. |
- Hudson, Lawrence N., et al.
(författare)
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The PREDICTS database : a global database of how local terrestrial biodiversity responds to human impacts
- 2014
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Ingår i: Ecology and Evolution. - : Wiley. - 2045-7758. ; 4:24, s. 4701-4735
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Biodiversity continues to decline in the face of increasing anthropogenic pressures such as habitat destruction, exploitation, pollution and introduction of alien species. Existing global databases of species' threat status or population time series are dominated by charismatic species. The collation of datasets with broad taxonomic and biogeographic extents, and that support computation of a range of biodiversity indicators, is necessary to enable better understanding of historical declines and to project - and avert - future declines. We describe and assess a new database of more than 1.6 million samples from 78 countries representing over 28,000 species, collated from existing spatial comparisons of local-scale biodiversity exposed to different intensities and types of anthropogenic pressures, from terrestrial sites around the world. The database contains measurements taken in 208 (of 814) ecoregions, 13 (of 14) biomes, 25 (of 35) biodiversity hotspots and 16 (of 17) megadiverse countries. The database contains more than 1% of the total number of all species described, and more than 1% of the described species within many taxonomic groups - including flowering plants, gymnosperms, birds, mammals, reptiles, amphibians, beetles, lepidopterans and hymenopterans. The dataset, which is still being added to, is therefore already considerably larger and more representative than those used by previous quantitative models of biodiversity trends and responses. The database is being assembled as part of the PREDICTS project (Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems - ). We make site-level summary data available alongside this article. The full database will be publicly available in 2015.
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| 4. |
- Rosalino, Luís M., et al.
(författare)
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Three decades of research on Iberian wild Carnivora : trends, highlights, and future directions
- 2023
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Ingår i: Mammal Review. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 0305-1838 .- 1365-2907. ; 53:4, s. 254-270
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Mammalian carnivores (Carnivora) are crucial components of landscapes, because of both their top-down effects on lower trophic level species and their sensitivity to bottom-up processes, such as limited food resources (e.g. due to climate instability). To understand their functional role in Iberian ecosystems more clearly, and to define effective plans for their management and conservation, it is crucial to sum up the available regional knowledge that can inform decision-making processes.We review bio-ecological research on wild Iberian carnivores over 30 years (1990–2020) and identify key knowledge gaps and priority avenues for future research. Based on a systematic review of the scientific literature, we aimed to: 1) summarise current knowledge; 2) assess species and ecoregion representativeness; 3) identify key research topics addressed and those lacking investment and 4) suggest key future research priorities.We examined 920 peer-reviewed articles involving wild Iberian mammalian carnivores, focusing on different bio-ecological issues. We found considerable heterogeneity in the topics and species investigated, as well as in the study areas (ecoregions) explored, with a mismatch between the research priorities identified by researchers and the knowledge gaps.We suggest that future research should prioritise: 1) rear-edge populations that are at the southwestern limits of the species' Eurasian range, thus being particularly sensitive to the increasing fragmentation and aridity of Iberian ecosystems, and that were less studied (e.g. brown bear Ursus arctos, stoat Mustela erminea, European mink Mustela lutreola and pine marten Martes martes); 2) less-studied topics, such as morphometry and body condition, ecophysiology, and reproductive biology, all of which provide essential information for species' management and conservation and 3) specific ecoregions for which studies on species' adaptations to environmental and anthropic contexts are lacking (e.g. northern ecoregions of Iberia, Iberian conifer forests and Northwest Iberian montane forests). Our review provides the necessary background to support future research on carnivore populations in Iberia.
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| 5. |
- Ascensão, Fernando, et al.
(författare)
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Disentangle the Causes of the Road Barrier Effect in Small Mammals through Genetic Patterns.
- 2016
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Ingår i: PLOS ONE. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1932-6203. ; 11:3
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Road barrier effect is among the foremost negative impacts of roads on wildlife. Knowledge of the factors responsible for the road barrier effect is crucial to understand and predict species' responses to roads, and to improve mitigation measures in the context of management and conservation. We built a set of hypothesis aiming to infer the most probable cause of road barrier effect (traffic effect or road surface avoidance), while controlling for the potentially confounding effects road width, traffic volume and road age. The wood mouse Apodemus sylvaticus was used as a model species of small and forest-dwelling mammals, which are more likely to be affected by gaps in cover such as those resulting from road construction. We confront genetic patterns from opposite and same roadsides from samples of three highways and used computer simulations to infer migration rates between opposite roadsides. Genetic patterns from 302 samples (ca. 100 per highway) suggest that the highway barrier effect for wood mouse is due to road surface avoidance. However, from the simulations we estimated a migration rate of about 5% between opposite roadsides, indicating that some limited gene flow across highways does occur. To reduce highway impact on population genetic diversity and structure, possible mitigation measures could include retrofitting of culverts and underpasses to increase their attractiveness and facilitate their use by wood mice and other species, and setting aside roadside strips without vegetation removal to facilitate establishment and dispersal of small mammals.
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| 6. |
- Coutinho, Nuno, et al.
(författare)
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Dynamic Dual-Reinforcement-Learning Routing Strategies for Quality of Experience-aware Wireless Mesh Networking
- 2015
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Ingår i: Computer Networks. - : Elsevier. - 1389-1286 .- 1872-7069. ; 88:269
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The impact of transmission impairments such as loss and latency on user perceived quality(QoE) depends on the service type. In a real network, multiple service types such as audio,video, and data coexist. This makes resource management inherently complex and difficultto orchestrate. In this paper, we propose an autonomous Quality of Experience managementapproach for multiservice wireless mesh networks, where individual mesh nodes apply rein-forcement learning methods to dynamically adjust their routing strategies in order to maxi-mize the user perceived QoE for each flow. Within the forwarding nodes, we develop a novelpacket dropping strategy that takes into account the impact on QoE. Finally, a novel sourcerate adaptation mechanism is designed that takes into account the expected QoE in order tomatch the sending rate with the available network capacity. An evaluation of our mechanismsusing simulations demonstrates that our approach is superior to the standard approaches,AODV and OLSR, and effectively balances the user perceived QoE between the service flows.
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| 7. |
- Curveira-Santos, Goncalo, et al.
(författare)
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Broad aggressive interactions among African carnivores suggest intraguild killing is driven by more than competition
- 2022
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Ingår i: Ecology. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 0012-9658 .- 1939-9170. ; 103:2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Theory on intraguild killing (IGK) is central to mammalian carnivore community ecology and top-down ecosystem regulation. Yet, the cryptic nature of IGK hinders empirical evaluations. Using a novel data source - online photographs of interspecific aggression between African carnivores - we revisited existing predictions about the extent and drivers of IGK. Compared with seminal reviews, our constructed IGK network yielded 10 more species and nearly twice as many interactions. The extent of interactions increased 37% when considering intraguild aggression (direct attack) as a precursor of killing events. We show that IGK occurs over a wider range of body-mass ratios than predicted by standing competition-based views, with highly asymmetrical interactions being pervasive. Evidence that large species, particularly hypercarnivore felids, target sympatric carnivores with a wide range of body sizes suggests that current IGK theory is incomplete, underestimating alternative competition pathways and the role of predatory and incidental killing. Our findings reinforce the potential for IGK-mediated cascades in species-rich assemblages and community-wide suppressive effects of large carnivores.
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| 8. |
- Householder, John Ethan, et al.
(författare)
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One sixth of Amazonian tree diversity is dependent on river floodplains
- 2024
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Ingår i: NATURE ECOLOGY & EVOLUTION. - 2397-334X.
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Amazonia's floodplain system is the largest and most biodiverse on Earth. Although forests are crucial to the ecological integrity of floodplains, our understanding of their species composition and how this may differ from surrounding forest types is still far too limited, particularly as changing inundation regimes begin to reshape floodplain tree communities and the critical ecosystem functions they underpin. Here we address this gap by taking a spatially explicit look at Amazonia-wide patterns of tree-species turnover and ecological specialization of the region's floodplain forests. We show that the majority of Amazonian tree species can inhabit floodplains, and about a sixth of Amazonian tree diversity is ecologically specialized on floodplains. The degree of specialization in floodplain communities is driven by regional flood patterns, with the most compositionally differentiated floodplain forests located centrally within the fluvial network and contingent on the most extraordinary flood magnitudes regionally. Our results provide a spatially explicit view of ecological specialization of floodplain forest communities and expose the need for whole-basin hydrological integrity to protect the Amazon's tree diversity and its function.
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| 9. |
- Kehoe, Laura, et al.
(författare)
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Make EU trade with Brazil sustainable
- 2019
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Ingår i: Science. - : American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). - 0036-8075 .- 1095-9203. ; 364:6438, s. 341-
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Tidskriftsartikel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)
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| 10. |
- Luize, Bruno Garcia, et al.
(författare)
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Geography and ecology shape the phylogenetic composition of Amazonian tree communities
- 2024
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Ingår i: JOURNAL OF BIOGEOGRAPHY. - 0305-0270 .- 1365-2699.
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Aim: Amazonia hosts more tree species from numerous evolutionary lineages, both young and ancient, than any other biogeographic region. Previous studies have shown that tree lineages colonized multiple edaphic environments and dispersed widely across Amazonia, leading to a hypothesis, which we test, that lineages should not be strongly associated with either geographic regions or edaphic forest types. Location: Amazonia. Taxon: Angiosperms (Magnoliids; Monocots; Eudicots). Methods: Data for the abundance of 5082 tree species in 1989 plots were combined with a mega-phylogeny. We applied evolutionary ordination to assess how phylogenetic composition varies across Amazonia. We used variation partitioning and Moran's eigenvector maps (MEM) to test and quantify the separate and joint contributions of spatial and environmental variables to explain the phylogenetic composition of plots. We tested the indicator value of lineages for geographic regions and edaphic forest types and mapped associations onto the phylogeny. Results: In the terra firme and v & aacute;rzea forest types, the phylogenetic composition varies by geographic region, but the igap & oacute; and white-sand forest types retain a unique evolutionary signature regardless of region. Overall, we find that soil chemistry, climate and topography explain 24% of the variation in phylogenetic composition, with 79% of that variation being spatially structured (R-2 = 19% overall for combined spatial/environmental effects). The phylogenetic composition also shows substantial spatial patterns not related to the environmental variables we quantified (R-2 = 28%). A greater number of lineages were significant indicators of geographic regions than forest types. Main Conclusion: Numerous tree lineages, including some ancient ones (>66 Ma), show strong associations with geographic regions and edaphic forest types of Amazonia. This shows that specialization in specific edaphic environments has played a long-standing role in the evolutionary assembly of Amazonian forests. Furthermore, many lineages, even those that have dispersed across Amazonia, dominate within a specific region, likely because of phylogenetically conserved niches for environmental conditions that are prevalent within regions.
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