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Sökning: WFRF:(Roberts Bayard)

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1.
  • Naghavi, Mohsen, et al. (författare)
  • Global, regional, and national age-sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
  • 2015
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 385:9963, s. 117-171
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specifi c all-cause and cause-specifi c mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specifi c all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specifi c causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65.3 years (UI 65.0-65.6) in 1990, to 71.5 years (UI 71.0-71.9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47.5 million (UI 46.8-48.2) to 54.9 million (UI 53.6-56.3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute diff erences between countries decreased but relative diff erences increased. For women aged 25-39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20-49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative diff erences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10.7%, from 4.3 million deaths in 1990 to 4.8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specifi c mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade.
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  • Stickley, Andrew, et al. (författare)
  • Binge drinking among adolescents in Russia : Prevalence, risk and protective factors
  • 2013
  • Ingår i: Addictive Behaviours. - 0306-4603 .- 1873-6327. ; 38:4, s. 1988-1995
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Despite evidence that alcohol misuse has been having an increasingly detrimental effect on adolescent wellbeing in Russia in recent years this phenomenon has been little researched. Using data from 2112 children from the Arkhangelsk Social and Health Assessment (SAHA) 2003, this study examined which factors acted as 'risk' or 'protective' factors for adolescent binge drinking within three domains we termed the 'family environment', the 'alcohol environment' and 'deviant behaviour'. The results showed that in the presence of comparatively moderate levels of binge drinking among both boys and girls, being able to access alcohol easily, being unaware of the risks of binge drinking and having peers who consumed alcohol increased the risk of adolescent binge drinking - as did playing truant, smoking and marijuana use, while parental warmth was protective against binge drinking for girls. Our finding that risk and protective factors occur across domains suggests that any interventions targeted against adolescent binge drinking may need to simultaneously focus on risk behaviours in different domains, while at the same time, broader social policy should act to limit the availability of alcohol to adolescents in Russia more generally.
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  • Wang, Haidong, et al. (författare)
  • Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
  • 2016
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 388:10053, s. 1459-1544
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • BACKGROUND: Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures.METHODS: We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER).FINDINGS: Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61·4-61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5-72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7-17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5-70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1% (2·6-5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0% (15·8-18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1% (12·6-16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1% (11·9-14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1%, 39·1-44·6), malaria (43·1%, 34·7-51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8%, 24·8-34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1%, 19·3-37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000-183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000-532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death.INTERPRETATION: At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems.
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  • Footman, Katharine, et al. (författare)
  • Smoking cessation and desire to stop smoking in nine countries of the former soviet union
  • 2013
  • Ingår i: Nicotine & tobacco research. - 1462-2203 .- 1469-994X. ; 15:9, s. 1628-1633
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Introduction: Smoking rates and corresponding levels of premature mortality from smoking-related diseases in the former Soviet Union (fSU) are among the highest in the world. To reduce this health burden, greater focus on smoking cessation is needed, but little is currently known about rates and characteristics of cessation in the fSU. Methods: Nationally representative household survey data from a cross-sectional study of 18,000 respondents in Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russia, and Ukraine were analyzed to describe patterns of desire and action taken to stop smoking, quit ratios (former ever-smokers as a percent of ever-smokers, without a specified recall period), and help used to stop smoking. Multivariate logistic regression was used to analyze characteristics associated with smoking cessation and desire to stop smoking. Results: Quit ratios varied from 10.5% in Azerbaijan to 37.6% in Belarus. About 67.2% of respondents expressed a desire to quit, and 64.9% had taken action and tried to stop. The use of help to quit was extremely low (12.6%). Characteristics associated with cessation included being female, over 60, with higher education, poorer health, lower alcohol dependency, higher knowledge of tobacco's health effects, and support for tobacco control. Characteristics associated with desire to stop smoking among current smokers included younger age, poorer health, greater knowledge of tobacco's health effects, and support for tobacco control. Conclusions: Quit ratios are low in the fSU but there is widespread desire to stop smoking. Stronger tobacco control and cessation support are urgently required to reduce smoking prevalence and associated premature mortality.
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7.
  • Murphy, Adrianna, et al. (författare)
  • A country divided? : Regional variation in mortality in Ukraine
  • 2013
  • Ingår i: International Journal of Public Health. - 1661-8556 .- 1661-8564. ; 58:6, s. 837-844
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • We set out to identify the contribution of various causes of death to regional differences in life expectancy in Ukraine. Mortality data by oblast (province) were obtained from the State Statistical Committee of Ukraine. The contribution of various causes of death to differences in life expectancy between East, West and South Ukraine was estimated using decomposition. In 2008, life expectancy for men in South (61.8 years) and East Ukraine (61.2 years) was lower than for men in West Ukraine (64.0 years). A similar pattern was observed among women. This was mostly due to deaths from infectious disease and external causes among young adults, and cardio- and cerebro-vascular deaths among older adults. Deaths from TB among young adults contribute most to differences in life expectancy. Deaths due to infectious disease, especially TB, play an important role in the gap in life expectancy between regions in Ukraine. These deaths are entirely preventable-further research is needed to identify what has 'protected' individuals in Western Ukraine from the burden of deaths experienced by their Southern and Eastern counterparts.
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  • Murphy, Adrianna, et al. (författare)
  • Social Factors Associated with Alcohol Consumption in the Former Soviet Union : A Systematic Review
  • 2012
  • Ingår i: Alcohol and Alcoholism. - 0735-0414 .- 1464-3502. ; 47:6, s. 711-718
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Aims: Alcohol consumption is a major cause of premature mortality in countries of the former Soviet Union (fSU). Despite the unique social profile of the region, we could find no published systematic review of studies of social factors and alcohol consumption in formerly Soviet countries. We aim to critically review the current evidence for social factors associated with alcohol consumption in the fSU and to identify key gaps in the literature. Methods: We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE and Global Health databases for cross-sectional, case-control, longitudinal or qualitative studies of demographic, socio-economic, psycho-social and contextual factors associated with alcohol consumption, in any language, published from 1991 until 16 December 2011. Additional studies were identified from the references of selected papers and expert consultation. Our review followed PRISMA guidelines for the reporting of systematic reviews. Results: Our search strategy resulted in 26 articles for review. Although there is strong evidence in the literature that males and smokers in the fSU are more likely to engage in hazardous alcohol consumption, findings regarding other social factors were mixed and there were almost no data on the association of contextual factors and alcohol consumption in this region. Conclusion: This review highlights the extremely limited amount of evidence for social factors associated with heavy alcohol consumption in the fSU. Given the unique social environment of countries of the fSU, future research should take these factors into account in order to effectively address the high levels of alcohol-related mortality in this region.
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  • Murphy, Adrianna, et al. (författare)
  • Using multi-level data to estimate the effect of an 'alcogenic' environment on hazardous alcohol consumption in the former Soviet Union.
  • 2014
  • Ingår i: Health and Place. - : Elsevier. - 1353-8292 .- 1873-2054. ; 27, s. 205-211
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • PURPOSE: The purpose of this study was to assess whether alcohol-related community characteristics act collectively to influence individual-level alcohol consumption in the former Soviet Union (fSU).METHODS AND RESULTS: Using multi-level data from nine countries in the fSU we conducted a factor analysis of seven alcohol-related community characteristics. The association between any latent factors underlying these characteristics and two measures of hazardous alcohol consumption was then analysed using a population average regression modelling approach. Our factor analysis produced one factor with an eigenvalue >1 (EV=1.28), which explained 94% of the variance. This factor was statistically significantly associated with increased odds of CAGE problem drinking (OR=1.40 (1.08-1.82)). The estimated association with EHD was not statistically significant (OR=1.10 (0.85-1.44)).CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that a high number of beer, wine and spirit advertisements and high alcohol outlet density may work together to create an 'alcogenic' environment that encourages hazardous alcohol consumption in the fSU.
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10.
  • Roberts, Bayard, et al. (författare)
  • Changes in household access to water in countries of the former Soviet Union
  • 2012
  • Ingår i: Journal of Public Health. - 2198-1833 .- 1613-2238. ; 34:3, s. 352-359
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background Evidence from the Early 2000s quantified limited coverage of household water supplies in countries of the former Soviet Union. The study objectives were to measure changes in access to piped household water in seven of these countries between 2001 and 2010 and examine how these varied by household economic status. Methods Cross-sectional household sample surveys were conducted in 2010 in Armenia, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Moldova, Russia and Ukraine. Data on household piped water were compared with a related 2001 study and descriptive, regression and relative risk analyses applied. Results Increases in access to piped water in the home between 2001 and 2010 were recorded in urban and rural areas of all countries, except Kazakhstan. Access remains lower in rural areas. The relative risk of urban households not having piped water in 2010 compared with 2001 diminished by one-third for households with a bad/very bad economic situation [rate ratio (RR): 0.66] and by half for wealthier households (RR: 0.48). In rural areas, the declines were 15% for households with a bad/very bad economic situation (RR: 0.85) and 30% for wealthier households (RR: 0.69). Conclusions Despite encouraging increases in access to piped water, there remain significant gaps for rural and poorer households.
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