| 1. |
- Atkinson, Jo-An, et al.
(författare)
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Harnessing advances in computer simulation to inform policy and planning to reduce alcohol-related harms
- 2018
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Ingår i: International Journal of Public Health. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1661-8556 .- 1661-8564. ; 63:4, s. 537-546
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Alcohol misuse is a complex systemic problem. The aim of this study was to explore the feasibility of using a transparent and participatory agent-based modelling approach to develop a robust decision support tool to test alcohol policy scenarios before they are implemented in the real world. A consortium of Australia's leading alcohol experts was engaged to collaboratively develop an agent-based model of alcohol consumption behaviour and related harms. As a case study, four policy scenarios were examined. A 19.5 +/- 2.5% reduction in acute alcohol-related harms was estimated with the implementation of a 3 a.m. licensed venue closing time plus 1 a.m. lockout; and a 9 +/- 2.6% reduction in incidence was estimated with expansion of treatment services to reach 20% of heavy drinkers. Combining the two scenarios produced a 33.3 +/- 2.7% reduction in the incidence of acute alcohol-related harms, suggesting a synergistic effect. This study demonstrates the feasibility of participatory development of a contextually relevant computer simulation model of alcohol-related harms and highlights the value of the approach in identifying potential policy responses that best leverage limited resources.
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| 2. |
- Babor, Thomas F., et al.
(författare)
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Alcohol : No Ordinary Commodity - a summary of the third edition
- 2022
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Ingår i: Addiction. - : NLM (Medline). - 0965-2140 .- 1360-0443. ; 117:12, s. 3024-3036
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background and Aims: This article summarizes the findings and conclusions of the third edition of Alcohol: No Ordinary Commodity. The latest revision of this book is part of a series of monographs designed to provide a critical review of the scientific evidence related to alcohol control policy from a public health perspective.Design: A narrative summary of the contents of the book according to five major issues.Findings: An extensive amount of epidemiological evidence shows that alcohol is a major contributor to the global burden of disease, disability and death in high-, middle- and low-income countries. Trends in alcohol products and marketing are described, indicating that a large part of the global industry has been consolidated into a small number of transnational corporations that are expanding their operations in Asia, Africa and Latin America. The main part of the book is devoted to a review of strategies and interventions designed to prevent or minimize alcohol-related harm. Overall, the most effective strategies to protect public health are taxation that decreases affordability and restrictions on the physical availability of alcohol. A total ban on alcohol marketing is also an effective strategy to reduce consumption. In addition, drink-driving counter-measures, brief interventions with at-risk drinkers and treatment of drinkers with alcohol dependence are effective in preventing harm in high-risk contexts and groups of hazardous drinkers.Conclusion: Alcohol policy is often the product of competing interests, values and ideologies, with the evidence suggesting that the conflicting interests between profit and health mean that working in partnership with the alcohol industry is likely to lead to ineffective policy. Opportunities for implementation of evidence-based alcohol policies that better serve the public good are clearer than ever before as a result of accumulating knowledge on which strategies work best.
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| 3. |
- Bodin, M., et al.
(författare)
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Predictors of abstinence and nonproblem drinking after 12-step treatment in Sweden
- 2006
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Ingår i: Journal of Studies on Alcohol. - : Alcohol Research Documentation, Inc.. - 0096-882X .- 1934-2683. ; 67:1, s. 139-146
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- OBJECTIVE: The aims of this study were to identify individual predictors of 12 months continuous abstinence and nonproblem drinking after Swedish inpatient Minnesota Model treatment and to evaluate the outcome variance explained by pretreatment, within-treatment, and posttreatment factors for each outcome, separately and in conjunction. METHOD: One-hundred and twenty-nine men and 47 women were interviewed on admission to Swedish Minnesota Model treatment and after 12 months. Two interviewers who were not involved in treatment delivery performed structured interviews. Statistical analyses included bivariate and multivariate logistic regression models applied to pair-wise contrasts of three types of treatment outcome. RESULTS: The final multivariate models for the three pair-wise contrasts explained 71% (abstinence vs problem drinking), 44% (nonproblem drinking vs problem drinking), and 25% (abstinence vs. nonproblem drinking) of outcome variance. Abstention and nonproblem drinking were both differentiated from problem drinking by the completion of aftercare, satisfaction with treatment, and number of public addiction care contacts. When contrasted with nonproblem drinking, abstention was predicted by the endorsement of a baseline goal to stop drinking and a higher degree of posttreatment affiliation with mutual-help groups. CONCLUSIONS: Results from this study support the fact that treatment is only one of many factors that contributes to an outcome and suggests issues that may need consideration in similar treatment settings.
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| 4. |
- Callinan, Sarah, et al.
(författare)
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Age-based differences in quantity and frequency of consumption when screening for harmful alcohol use
- 2022
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Ingår i: Addiction. - : Wiley. - 0965-2140 .- 1360-0443. ; 117:9, s. 2431-2437
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background and aims: Survey questions on usual quantity and frequency of alcohol consumption are regularly used in screening tools to identify drinkers requiring intervention. The aim of this study was to measure age-based differences in quantity and frequency of alcohol consumption on the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) and how this relates to the prediction of harmful or dependent drinking.Design: Cross-sectional survey.Setting: Australia.Participants: Data were taken from 17 399 respondents who reported any alcohol consumption in the last year and were aged 18 and over from the 2016 National Drug Strategy Household Survey, a broadly representative cross-sectional survey on substance use.Measurement: Respondents were asked about their frequency of consumption, usual quantity per occasion and the other items of the AUDIT.Findings: In older drinkers, quantity per occasion [β = 0.53, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.43, 0.64 in 43–47-year-olds as an example] was a stronger predictor of dependence than frequency per occasion (β = 0.24, 95% CI = 0.17, 0.31). In younger drinkers the reverse was true, with frequency a stronger predictor (β = 0.54, 95% CI = 0.39, 0.69 in 23–27-year-olds) than quantity (β = 0.26, 95% CI = 0.18, 0.34 in 23–27-year-olds). Frequency of consumption was not a significant predictor of dependence in respondents aged 73 years and over (β = −0.03, 95% CI = −0.08, 0.02). Similar patterns were found when predicting harmful drinking. Despite this, as frequency of consumption increased steadily with age, the question on frequency was responsible for at least 65% of AUDIT scores in drinkers aged 53 years and over.Conclusions: In younger drinkers, frequent drinking is more strongly linked to dependence and harmful drinking subscale scores on the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) than quantity per occasion, yet quantity per occasion has a stronger influence on the overall AUDIT score in this group. In older drinkers, frequency of consumption is not always a significant predictor of the AUDIT dependence subscale and is a weak predictor of the harmful drinking subscale.
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| 5. |
- Callinan, Sarah, et al.
(författare)
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How much alcohol is consumed outside of the lifetime risk guidelines in Australia?
- 2018
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Ingår i: Drug and Alcohol Review. - : Wiley. - 0959-5236 .- 1465-3362. ; 37:1, s. 42-47
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Introduction and Aims. This study aims to estimate the prevalence of long-term risky drinking within the Australian population and the proportion of standard drinks that is consumed outside of the long-term risk (LTR) guidelines of two Australian standard drinks (ASD) per day.Design and Methods. Recruited by phone, 2020 Australian adults with an oversampling of risky drinkers were asked detailed questions about how much alcohol they consumed at a range of locations in 2013. Descriptive statistical analyses of data weighted to be representative of the Australian adult population were undertaken, with a focus on the ASD consumed above the LTR guidelines.Results. Although 28% of respondents drink at levels above the LTR drinking guidelines, 56% of all ASD consumed are above the two per day recommended to reduce LTR. Three-quarters of cask wine and liqueurs were consumed outside of the LTR guidelines, as were 58% of all ASD consumed in the home, similar to the proportion of ASD consumed above the guidelines in pubs (55%).Discussion and Conclusions. While the minority of Australians drink to LTR levels, the majority of alcohol is consumed by long-term risky drinkers. More research and policy focus on the patterns of alcohol consumption that lead to long-term risk, particularly outside of licensed premises, is required.
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| 6. |
- Callinan, Sarah, et al.
(författare)
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Purchasing, consumption, demographic and socioeconomic variables associated with shifts in alcohol consumption during the COVID-19 pandemic
- 2021
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Ingår i: Drug and Alcohol Review. - : Wiley. - 0959-5236 .- 1465-3362. ; 45, s. 24A-24A
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Introduction and Aims: Restrictions introduced to reduce the spread of COVID-19 have had major impacts on the living circumstances of Australians. This paper aims to provide insight into shifts in alcohol consumption and associated factors during the epidemic. Design and Methods: A cross-sectional convenience sample of 2307 Australians aged 18 and over who drank at least monthly was recruited through social media. Respondents were asked about their alcohol consumption and purchasing in 2019 prior to the epidemic plus similar questions about their experiences in the month prior to being surveyed between 29 April and 16 May 2020. Results: Reports of average consumption before (3.53 drinks per day [3.36, 3.71 95% confidence interval]) and during (3.52 [3.34, 3.69]) the pandemic were stable. However, young men and those who drank more outside the home in 2019 reported decreased consumption during the pandemic, and people with high levels of stress and those who bulk-bought alcohol when restrictions were announced reported an increase in consumption relative to those who did not. Discussion and Conclusions: A reported increase in consumption among those experiencing more stress suggests that some people may have been drinking to cope during the epidemic. Conversely, the reported decrease in consumption among those who drank more outside of their home in 2019 suggests that closing all on-trade sales did not result in complete substitution of on-premise drinking with home drinking in this group. Monitoring of relevant subgroups to assess long-term changes in consumption in the aftermath of the epidemic is recommended.
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| 7. |
- Forouzanfar, Mohammad H, et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.
- 2015
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 386:10010, s. 2287-2323
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution.METHODS: Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk-outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990-2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol.FINDINGS: All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8-58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1-43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5-89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa.INTERPRETATION: Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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| 8. |
- Griswold, Max G., et al.
(författare)
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Alcohol use and burden for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2016 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 392:10152, s. 1015-1035
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for death and disability, but its overall association with health remains complex given the possible protective effects of moderate alcohol consumption on some conditions. With our comprehensive approach to health accounting within the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016, we generated improved estimates of alcohol use and alcohol-attributable deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 195 locations from 1990 to 2016, for both sexes and for 5-year age groups between the ages of 15 years and 95 years and older.Methods: Using 694 data sources of individual and population-level alcohol consumption, along with 592 prospective and retrospective studies on the risk of alcohol use, we produced estimates of the prevalence of current drinking, abstention, the distribution of alcohol consumption among current drinkers in standard drinks daily (defined as 10 g of pure ethyl alcohol), and alcohol-attributable deaths and DALYs. We made several methodological improvements compared with previous estimates: first, we adjusted alcohol sales estimates to take into account tourist and unrecorded consumption; second, we did a new meta-analysis of relative risks for 23 health outcomes associated with alcohol use; and third, we developed a new method to quantify the level of alcohol consumption that minimises the overall risk to individual health.Findings: Globally, alcohol use was the seventh leading risk factor for both deaths and DALYs in 2016, accounting for 2.2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1.5-3.0) of age-standardised female deaths and 6.8% (5.8-8.0) of age-standardised male deaths. Among the population aged 15-49 years, alcohol use was the leading risk factor globally in 2016, with 3.8% (95% UI 3.2-4-3) of female deaths and 12.2% (10.8-13-6) of male deaths attributable to alcohol use. For the population aged 15-49 years, female attributable DALYs were 2.3% (95% UI 2.0-2.6) and male attributable DALYs were 8.9% (7.8-9.9). The three leading causes of attributable deaths in this age group were tuberculosis (1.4% [95% UI 1. 0-1. 7] of total deaths), road injuries (1.2% [0.7-1.9]), and self-harm (1.1% [0.6-1.5]). For populations aged 50 years and older, cancers accounted for a large proportion of total alcohol-attributable deaths in 2016, constituting 27.1% (95% UI 21.2-33.3) of total alcohol-attributable female deaths and 18.9% (15.3-22.6) of male deaths. The level of alcohol consumption that minimised harm across health outcomes was zero (95% UI 0.0-0.8) standard drinks per week.Interpretation: Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for global disease burden and causes substantial health loss. We found that the risk of all-cause mortality, and of cancers specifically, rises with increasing levels of consumption, and the level of consumption that minimises health loss is zero. These results suggest that alcohol control policies might need to be revised worldwide, refocusing on efforts to lower overall population-level consumption.
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| 9. |
- Jarl, Johan, et al.
(författare)
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The societal cost of alcohol consumption: an estimation of the economic and human cost including health effects in Sweden, 2002
- 2008
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Ingår i: European Journal of Health Economics. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1618-7601 .- 1618-7598. ; 9:4, s. 351-360
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This article estimates the societal cost of alcohol consumption in Sweden in 2002, as well as the effects on health and quality of life. The estimation includes direct costs, indirect costs and intangible costs. Relevant cost-of-illness methods are applied using the human capital method and prevalence-based estimates, as suggested in existing international guidelines, allowing cautious comparison with prior studies. The results show that the net cost (i.e. including protective effects of alcohol consumption) is 20.3 billion Swedish kronor (SEK) and the gross cost (counting only detrimental effects) is 29.4 billon (0.9 and 1.3% of GDP). Alcohol consumption is estimated to cause a net loss of 121,800 QALYs. The results are within the range found in prior studies, although at the low end. A large number of sensitivity analyses are performed, indicating a sensitivity range of 50%.
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| 10. |
- Kraus, Ludwig, et al.
(författare)
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Long waves of consumption or a unique social generation? Exploring recent declines in youth drinking
- 2020
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Ingår i: Addiction Research and Theory. - : Informa UK Limited. - 1606-6359 .- 1476-7392. ; 28:3, s. 183-193
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: There is growing evidence for recent declines in adolescent alcohol use in the Western world. While these changes have been subject to scientific debate, the reasons for this downward trend are not yet understood.Method: We consider broader theoretical framings that might be useful in understanding declines in youth drinking. In particular, we reflect on the historical observations of ‘long waves of alcohol consumption’, the ‘Total Consumption Model’, and the ‘Theory of Social Generations’. Based on this, we explore some of the main hypotheses that are presently discussed as possible explanations for changes in youth drinking.Results: We suggest there may have been a change in the social position of alcohol as a social reaction to the negative effects of alcohol, but also emphasize the importance of changes in technology, social norms, family relationships and gender identity, as well as trends in health, fitness, wellbeing and lifestyle behavior. As a result of the interplay of these factors, the ‘devaluation’ of alcohol and the use of it may have contributed to the decrease in youth drinking.Conclusions: For interrupting the recurrent cycle of the ‘long waves of alcohol consumption’, we need to take advantage of the present change in sentiment and “lock in” these changes by new control measures. The model of change presented here hinges on the assumption that the observed change in the position the present young generation takes on alcohol proceeds through the life course, eventually reducing alcohol use in the whole population.
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