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Sökning: WFRF:(Sánchez Maria José) > Umeå universitet

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1.
  • Bentham, James, et al. (författare)
  • A century of trends in adult human height
  • 2016
  • Ingår i: eLIFE. - 2050-084X. ; 5
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Being taller is associated with enhanced longevity, and higher education and earnings. We reanalysed 1472 population-based studies, with measurement of height on more than 18.6 million participants to estimate mean height for people born between 1896 and 1996 in 200 countries. The largest gain in adult height over the past century has occurred in South Korean women and Iranian men, who became 20.2 cm (95% credible interval 17.522.7) and 16.5 cm (13.319.7) taller, respectively. In contrast, there was little change in adult height in some sub-Saharan African countries and in South Asia over the century of analysis. The tallest people over these 100 years are men born in the Netherlands in the last quarter of 20th century, whose average heights surpassed 182.5 cm, and the shortest were women born in Guatemala in 1896 (140.3 cm; 135.8144.8). The height differential between the tallest and shortest populations was 19-20 cm a century ago, and has remained the same for women and increased for men a century later despite substantial changes in the ranking of countries.
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  • Murray, Christopher J. L., et al. (författare)
  • Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1995-2051
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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  • Stanaway, Jeffrey D., et al. (författare)
  • Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1923-1994
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk- outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.
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  • Hudson, Lawrence N, et al. (författare)
  • The database of the PREDICTS (Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems) project
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Ecology and Evolution. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 2045-7758. ; 7:1, s. 145-188
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The PREDICTS project-Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems (www.predicts.org.uk)-has collated from published studies a large, reasonably representative database of comparable samples of biodiversity from multiple sites that differ in the nature or intensity of human impacts relating to land use. We have used this evidence base to develop global and regional statistical models of how local biodiversity responds to these measures. We describe and make freely available this 2016 release of the database, containing more than 3.2 million records sampled at over 26,000 locations and representing over 47,000 species. We outline how the database can help in answering a range of questions in ecology and conservation biology. To our knowledge, this is the largest and most geographically and taxonomically representative database of spatial comparisons of biodiversity that has been collated to date; it will be useful to researchers and international efforts wishing to model and understand the global status of biodiversity.
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7.
  • Patel, Pinal S, et al. (författare)
  • The prospective association between total and type of fish intake and type 2 diabetes in 8 European countries : EPIC-InterAct Study
  • 2012
  • Ingår i: American Journal of Clinical Nutrition. - : Elsevier BV. - 0002-9165 .- 1938-3207. ; 95:6, s. 1445-1453
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background: Epidemiologic evidence of an association between fish intake and type 2 diabetes (T2D) is inconsistent and unresolved. Objective: The objective was to examine the association between total and type of fish intake and T2D in 8 European countries. Design: This was a case-cohort study, nested within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study, with 3.99 million person-years of follow-up, 12,403 incident diabetes cases, and a random subcohort of 16,835 individuals from 8 European countries. Habitual fish intake (lean fish, fatty fish, total fish, shellfish, and combined fish and shellfish) was assessed by country-specific dietary questionnaires. HRs were estimated in each country by using Prentice-weighted Cox regression models and pooled by using a random-effects meta-analysis. Results: No overall association was found between combined fish and shellfish intake and incident T2D per quartile (adjusted HR: 1.00; 95% Cl: 0.94, 1.06; P-trend = 0.99). Total fish, lean fish, and shellfish intakes separately were also not associated with T2D, but fatty fish intake was weakly inversely associated with T2D: adjusted HR per quartile 0.97 (0.94, 1.00), with an HR of 0.84 (0.70, 1.01), 0.85 (0.76, 0.95), and 0.87 (0.78, 0.97) for a comparison of the second, third, and fourth quartiles with the lowest quartile of intake, respectively (P-trend = 0.06). Conclusions: These findings suggest that lean fish, total fish, and shellfish intakes are not associated with incident diabetes but that fatty fish intake may be weakly inversely associated. Replication of these findings in other populations and investigation of the mechanisms underlying these associations are warranted. Meanwhile, current public health recommendations on fish intake should remain unchanged. Am J Clin Nutr 2012;95:1445-53,
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8.
  • Peters, Tricia, et al. (författare)
  • Validity of a short questionnaire to assess physical activity in 10 European countries
  • 2012
  • Ingår i: European Journal of Epidemiology. - Dordrecht : Springer Netherlands. - 0393-2990 .- 1573-7284. ; 27:1, s. 15-25
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • To accurately examine associations of physical activity (PA) with disease outcomes, a valid method of assessing free-living activity is required. We examined the validity of a brief PA questionnaire (PAQ) used in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC). PA energy expenditure (PAEE) and time spent in moderate and vigorous physical activity (MVPA) was measured in 1,941 healthy individuals from 10 European countries using individually-calibrated combined heart-rate and movement sensing. Participants also completed the short EPIC-PAQ, which refers to past year's activity. Pearson (r) and Spearman (sigma) correlation coefficients were calculated for each country, and random effects meta-analysis was used to calculate the combined correlation across countries to estimate the validity of two previously- and one newly-derived ordered, categorical PA indices ("Cambridge index", "total PA index", and "recreational index") that categorized individuals as inactive, moderately inactive, moderately active, or active. The strongest associations with PAEE and MVPA were observed for the Cambridge index (r = 0.33 and r = 0.25, respectively). No significant heterogeneity by country was observed for this index (I-2 = 36.3%, P = 0.12; I-2 = 0.0%, P = 0.85), whereas heterogeneity was suggested for other indices (I-2 > 48%, P < 0.05, I-2 > 47%, P < 0.05). PAEE increased linearly across self-reported PA categories (P for trend < 0.001), with an average difference of approximately 460 kJ/d for men and 365 kJ/d for women, between categories of the Cambridge index. The EPIC-PAQ is suitable for categorizing European men and women into four distinct categories of overall physical activity. The difference in PAEE between categories may be useful when estimating effect sizes from observational research.
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9.
  • Butt, Julia, et al. (författare)
  • Antibody Responses to Fusobacterium nucleatum Proteins in Prediagnostic Blood Samples are not Associated with Risk of Developing Colorectal Cancer
  • 2019
  • Ingår i: Cancer Epidemiology, Biomarkers and Prevention. - : American Association for Cancer Research. - 1055-9965 .- 1538-7755. ; 28:9, s. 1552-1555
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background: There is a lack of prospective data on the potential association of Fusobacterium nucleatum (F. nucleatum) and colorectal cancer risk. In this study, we assessed whether antibody responses to F. nucleatum are associated with colorectal cancer risk in prediagnostic serum samples in the European Prospective Investigation into Nutrition and Cancer (EPIC) cohort.Methods: We applied a multiplex serology assay to simultaneously measure antibody responses to 11 F. nucleatum antigens in prediagnostic serum samples from 485 colorectal cancer cases and 485 matched controls. Conditional logistic regression models were used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CI).Results: We observed neither a statistically significant colorectal cancer risk association for antibodies to individual F. nucleatum proteins nor for combined positivity to any of the 11 proteins (OR, 0.81; 95% CI, 0.62–1.06).Conclusions: Antibody responses to F. nucleatum proteins in prediagnostic serum samples from a subset of colorectal cancer cases and matched controls within the EPIC study were not associated with colorectal cancer risk.Impact: Our findings in prospectively ascertained serum samples contradict the existing literature on the association of F. nucleatum with colorectal cancer risk. Future prospective studies, specifically detecting F. nucleatum in stool or tissue biopsies, are needed to complement our findings.
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10.
  • Dik, Vincent K, et al. (författare)
  • Prediagnostic intake of dairy products and dietary calcium and colorectal cancer survival - results from the EPIC cohort study.
  • 2014
  • Ingår i: Cancer Epidemiology Biomarkers & Prevention. - 1538-7755 .- 1055-9965. ; 23:9, s. 1813-1823
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background We investigated whether prediagnostic reported intake of dairy products and dietary calcium are associated with colorectal cancer (CRC) survival. Methods Data from 3,859 subjects with CRC (42.1% male, mean age at diagnosis 64.2 ± 8.1 years) in the European Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort were analyzed. Intake of dairy products and dietary calcium was assessed at baseline (1992-2000) using validated, country-specific dietary questionnaires. Multivariable Cox regression models were used to calculate hazard ratios (HR) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (95%-CI) for CRC specific death (n=1,028) and all-cause death (n=1,525) for different quartiles of intake. Results The consumption of total dairy products was not statistically significantly associated with risk of CRC-specific death (adjusted HR Q4 vs. Q1: 1.17 95%-CI 0.97-1.43) nor of all-cause death (Q4 vs. Q1: 1.16 95%-CI 0.98-1.36). Multivariable adjusted HRs for CRC-specific death (Q4 vs. Q1) were 1.21 (95%-CI 0.99-1.48) for milk, 1.09 (95%-CI 0.88-1.34) for yoghurt and 0.93 (95%-CI 0.76-1.14) for cheese. The intake of dietary calcium was not associated with the risk of CRC-specific (adjusted HR Q4 vs. Q1: 1.01 95%-CI 0.81-1.26) nor of all-cause death (Q4 vs. Q1: 1.01 95%-CI 0.84-1.21). Conclusions The prediagnostic reported intake of dairy products and dietary calcium are not associated with disease-specific or all-cause risk of death in patients diagnosed with CRC. Impact The impact of diet on cancer survival is largely unknown. This study shows that despite it's inverse association with CRC risk, the prediagnostic intake of dairy and dietary calcium do not affect CRC survival.
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