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Sökning: WFRF:(Schaefer Kevin)

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1.
  • Abbott, Benjamin W., et al. (författare)
  • Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire : an expert assessment
  • 2016
  • Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters. - : IOP Publishing: Open Access Journals / IOP Publishing. - 1748-9326 .- 1748-9326. ; 11:3
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • As the permafrost region warms, its large organic carbon pool will be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition, combustion, and hydrologic export. Models predict that some portion of this release will be offset by increased production of Arctic and boreal biomass; however, the lack of robust estimates of net carbon balance increases the risk of further overshooting international emissions targets. Precise empirical or model-based assessments of the critical factors driving carbon balance are unlikely in the near future, so to address this gap, we present estimates from 98 permafrost-region experts of the response of biomass, wildfire, and hydrologic carbon flux to climate change. Results suggest that contrary to model projections, total permafrost-region biomass could decrease due to water stress and disturbance, factors that are not adequately incorporated in current models. Assessments indicate that end-of-the-century organic carbon release from Arctic rivers and collapsing coastlines could increase by 75% while carbon loss via burning could increase four-fold. Experts identified water balance, shifts in vegetation community, and permafrost degradation as the key sources of uncertainty in predicting future system response. In combination with previous findings, results suggest the permafrost region will become a carbon source to the atmosphere by 2100 regardless of warming scenario but that 65%-85% of permafrost carbon release can still be avoided if human emissions are actively reduced.
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2.
  • de Jong, Simone, et al. (författare)
  • Applying polygenic risk scoring for psychiatric disorders to a large family with bipolar disorder and major depressive disorder
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: Communications Biology. - : Nature Publishing Group. - 2399-3642. ; 1
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Psychiatric disorders are thought to have a complex genetic pathology consisting of interplay of common and rare variation. Traditionally, pedigrees are used to shed light on the latter only, while here we discuss the application of polygenic risk scores to also highlight patterns of common genetic risk. We analyze polygenic risk scores for psychiatric disorders in a large pedigree (n ~ 260) in which 30% of family members suffer from major depressive disorder or bipolar disorder. Studying patterns of assortative mating and anticipation, it appears increased polygenic risk is contributed by affected individuals who married into the family, resulting in an increasing genetic risk over generations. This may explain the observation of anticipation in mood disorders, whereby onset is earlier and the severity increases over the generations of a family. Joint analyses of rare and common variation may be a powerful way to understand the familial genetics of psychiatric disorders.
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3.
  • Natali, S. M., et al. (författare)
  • Large loss of CO2 in winter observed across the northern permafrost region
  • 2019
  • Ingår i: Nature Climate Change. - : Nature Research. - 1758-678X .- 1758-6798. ; 9:11, s. 852-857
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Recent warming in the Arctic, which has been amplified during the winter(1-3), greatly enhances microbial decomposition of soil organic matter and subsequent release of carbon dioxide (CO2)(4). However, the amount of CO2 released in winter is not known and has not been well represented by ecosystem models or empirically based estimates(5,6). Here we synthesize regional in situ observations of CO2 flux from Arctic and boreal soils to assess current and future winter carbon losses from the northern permafrost domain. We estimate a contemporary loss of 1,662 TgC per year from the permafrost region during the winter season (October-April). This loss is greater than the average growing season carbon uptake for this region estimated from process models (-1,032 TgC per year). Extending model predictions to warmer conditions up to 2100 indicates that winter CO2 emissions will increase 17% under a moderate mitigation scenario-Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5-and 41% under business-as-usual emissions scenario-Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5. Our results provide a baseline for winter CO2 emissions from northern terrestrial regions and indicate that enhanced soil CO2 loss due to winter warming may offset growing season carbon uptake under future climatic conditions.
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4.
  • Schuster, Paul F., et al. (författare)
  • Permafrost Stores a Globally Significant Amount of Mercury
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: Geophysical Research Letters. - 0094-8276 .- 1944-8007. ; 45:3, s. 1463-1471
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Changing climate in northern regions is causing permafrost to thaw with major implications for the global mercury (Hg) cycle. We estimated Hg in permafrost regions based on in situ measurements of sediment total mercury (STHg), soil organic carbon (SOC), and the Hg to carbon ratio (R-HgC) combined with maps of soil carbon. We measured a median STHg of 43 +/- 30 ng Hg g soil(-1) and a median R-HgC of 1.6 +/- 0.9 mu g Hg g C-1, consistent with published results of STHg for tundra soils and 11,000 measurements from 4,926 temperate, nonpermafrost sites in North America and Eurasia. We estimate that the Northern Hemisphere permafrost regions contain 1,656 +/- 962 Gg Hg, of which 793 +/- 461 Gg Hg is frozen in permafrost. Permafrost soils store nearly twice as much Hg as all other soils, the ocean, and the atmosphere combined, and this Hg is vulnerable to release as permafrost thaws over the next century. Existing estimates greatly underestimate Hg in permafrost soils, indicating a need to reevaluate the role of the Arctic regions in the global Hg cycle.
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5.
  • Andresen, Christian G., et al. (författare)
  • Soil moisture and hydrology projections of the permafrost region-a model intercomparison
  • Ingår i: Cryosphere. - : Copernicus Gesellschaft mbH. - 1994-0416. ; 14:2, s. 445-459
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • This study investigates and compares soil moisture and hydrology projections of broadly used land models with permafrost processes and highlights the causes and impacts of permafrost zone soil moisture projections. Climate models project warmer temperatures and increases in precipitation (P) which will intensify evapotranspiration (ET) and runoff in land models. However, this study shows that most models project a long-term drying of the surface soil (0-20 cm) for the permafrost region despite increases in the net air-surface water flux (P-ET). Drying is generally explained by infiltration of moisture to deeper soil layers as the active layer deepens or permafrost thaws completely. Although most models agree on drying, the projections vary strongly in magnitude and spatial pattern. Land models tend to agree with decadal runoff trends but underestimate runoff volume when compared to gauge data across the major Arctic river basins, potentially indicating model structural limitations. Coordinated efforts to address the ongoing challenges presented in this study will help reduce uncertainty in our capability to predict the future Arctic hydrological state and associated land-atmosphere biogeochemical processes across spatial and temporal scales.
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6.
  • Haycock, Philip C., et al. (författare)
  • Association Between Telomere Length and Risk of Cancer and Non-Neoplastic Diseases A Mendelian Randomization Study
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: JAMA Oncology. - : American Medical Association. - 2374-2437 .- 2374-2445. ; 3:5, s. 636-651
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • IMPORTANCE: The causal direction and magnitude of the association between telomere length and incidence of cancer and non-neoplastic diseases is uncertain owing to the susceptibility of observational studies to confounding and reverse causation. OBJECTIVE: To conduct a Mendelian randomization study, using germline genetic variants as instrumental variables, to appraise the causal relevance of telomere length for risk of cancer and non-neoplastic diseases. DATA SOURCES: Genomewide association studies (GWAS) published up to January 15, 2015. STUDY SELECTION: GWAS of noncommunicable diseases that assayed germline genetic variation and did not select cohort or control participants on the basis of preexisting diseases. Of 163 GWAS of noncommunicable diseases identified, summary data from 103 were available. DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS: Summary association statistics for single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that are strongly associated with telomere length in the general population. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for disease per standard deviation (SD) higher telomere length due to germline genetic variation. RESULTS: Summary data were available for 35 cancers and 48 non-neoplastic diseases, corresponding to 420 081 cases (median cases, 2526 per disease) and 1 093 105 controls (median, 6789 per disease). Increased telomere length due to germline genetic variation was generally associated with increased risk for site-specific cancers. The strongest associations (ORs [ 95% CIs] per 1-SD change in genetically increased telomere length) were observed for glioma, 5.27 (3.15-8.81); serous low-malignant-potential ovarian cancer, 4.35 (2.39-7.94); lung adenocarcinoma, 3.19 (2.40-4.22); neuroblastoma, 2.98 (1.92-4.62); bladder cancer, 2.19 (1.32-3.66); melanoma, 1.87 (1.55-2.26); testicular cancer, 1.76 (1.02-3.04); kidney cancer, 1.55 (1.08-2.23); and endometrial cancer, 1.31 (1.07-1.61). Associations were stronger for rarer cancers and at tissue sites with lower rates of stem cell division. There was generally little evidence of association between genetically increased telomere length and risk of psychiatric, autoimmune, inflammatory, diabetic, and other non-neoplastic diseases, except for coronary heart disease (OR, 0.78 [ 95% CI, 0.67-0.90]), abdominal aortic aneurysm (OR, 0.63 [ 95% CI, 0.49-0.81]), celiac disease (OR, 0.42 [ 95% CI, 0.28-0.61]) and interstitial lung disease (OR, 0.09 [ 95% CI, 0.05-0.15]). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: It is likely that longer telomeres increase risk for several cancers but reduce risk for some non-neoplastic diseases, including cardiovascular diseases.
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7.
  • Huang, Kun, et al. (författare)
  • Enhanced peak growth of global vegetation and its key mechanisms
  • Ingår i: Nature Ecology and Evolution. - : Nature Publishing Group. - 2397-334X. ; 2:12, s. 1897-1905
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The annual peak growth of vegetation is critical in characterizing the capacity of terrestrial ecosystem productivity and shaping the seasonality of atmospheric CO2 concentrations. The recent greening of global lands suggests an increasing trend of terrestrial vegetation growth, but whether or not the peak growth has been globally enhanced still remains unclear. Here, we use two global datasets of gross primary productivity (GPP) and a satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) to characterize recent changes in annual peak vegetation growth (that is, GPPmax and NDVImax). We demonstrate that the peak in the growth of global vegetation has been linearly increasing during the past three decades. About 65% of the NDVImax variation is evenly explained by expanding croplands (21%), rising CO2 (22%) and intensifying nitrogen deposition (22%). The contribution of expanding croplands to the peak growth trend is substantiated by measurements from eddy-flux towers, sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence and a global database of plant traits, all of which demonstrate that croplands have a higher photosynthetic capacity than other vegetation types. The large contribution of CO2 is also supported by a meta-analysis of 466 manipulative experiments and 15 terrestrial biosphere models. Furthermore, we show that the contribution of GPPmax to the change in annual GPP is less in the tropics than in other regions. These multiple lines of evidence reveal an increasing trend in the peak growth of global vegetation. The findings highlight the important roles of agricultural intensification and atmospheric changes in reshaping the seasonality of global vegetation growth.
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8.
  • Jingying, Xu, 1984-, et al. (författare)
  • Mercury methylating microbial communities of boreal forest soils
  • 2019
  • Ingår i: ; 9
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The formation of the potent neurotoxic methylmercury (MeHg) is a microbially mediated process that has raised much concern because MeHg poses threats to wildlife and human health. Since boreal forest soils can be a source of MeHg in aquatic networks, it is crucial to understand the biogeochemical processes involved in the formation of this pollutant. High-throughput sequencing of 16S rRNA and the mercury methyltransferase, hgcA, combined with geochemical characterisation of soils, were used to determine the microbial populations contributing to MeHg formation in forest soils across Sweden. The hgcA sequences obtained were distributed among diverse clades, including Proteobacteria, Firmicutes, and Methanomicrobia, with Deltaproteobacteria, particularly Geobacteraceae, dominating the libraries across all soils examined. Our results also suggest that MeHg formation is linked to the composition of also non-mercury methylating bacterial communities, likely providing growth substrate (e.g. acetate) for the hgcA-carrying microorganisms responsible for the actual methylation process. While previous research focused on mercury methylating microbial communities of wetlands, this study provides some first insights into the diversity of mercury methylating microorganisms in boreal forest soils.
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9.
  • Knight, Kevin, et al. (författare)
  • The Copiale Cipher
  • 2011
  • Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The Copiale cipher is a 105-page enciphered book dated 1866. We describe the features of the book and the method by which we deciphered it.
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10.
  • Knight, Kevin, et al. (författare)
  • The Secrets of the Copiale Cipher
  • 2011
  • Ingår i: Research into Freemasonry and Fraternalism. - 1757-2460. ; 2:2, s. 314-324
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The Copiale Cipher is a 105-page, hand-written encrypted manuscript from the mid-eighteenth century. Its code was cracked and the text was deciphered by using modern computational technology combined with philological methods. We describe the book, the features of the text, and give a brief summary of the method by which we deciphered it. Finally, we present the content and the secret society, namely the Oculists, who were hiding behind the cipher. 
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