| 1. |
- Frieler, K, et al.
(författare)
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Assessing the impacts of 1.5° C global warming - simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b)
- 2017
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Ingår i: Geoscientific Model Development. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1991-959X .- 1991-9603. ; 10, s. 4321-4345
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In Paris, France, December 2015, the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Con- vention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the Inter- governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to provide a “special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 â—ŠC above pre-industrial levels and related global green- house gas emission pathwaysâ€. In Nairobi, Kenya, April 2016, the IPCC panel accepted the invitation. Here we de- scribe the response devised within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) to provide tailored, cross-sectorally consistent impact projections to broaden the scientific basis for the report. The simulation protocol is de- signed to allow for (1) separation of the impacts of histori- cal warming starting from pre-industrial conditions from im- pacts of other drivers such as historical land-use changes (based on pre-industrial and historical impact model simula- tions); (2) quantification of the impacts of additional warm- ing up to 1.5 â—ŠC, including a potential overshoot and long- term impacts up to 2299, and comparison to higher lev- els of global mean temperature change (based on the low- emissions Representative Concentration Pathway RCP2.6 and a no-mitigation pathway RCP6.0) with socio-economic conditions fixed at 2005 levels; and (3) assessment of the cli- mate effects based on the same climate scenarios while ac- counting for simultaneous changes in socio-economic con- ditions following the middle-of-the-road Shared Socioeco- nomic Pathway (SSP2, Fricko et al., 2016) and in particu- lar differential bioenergy requirements associated with the transformation of the energy system to comply with RCP2.6 compared to RCP6.0.With the aim of providing the scientific basis for an aggregation of impacts across sectors and anal- ysis of cross-sectoral interactions that may dampen or am- plify sectoral impacts, the protocol is designed to facilitate consistent impact projections from a range of impact mod- els across different sectors (global and regional hydrology, lakes, global crops, global vegetation, regional forests, global and regional marine ecosystems and fisheries, global and regional coastal infrastructure, energy supply and demand, temperature-related mortality, and global terrestrial biodiver- sity).
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| 2. |
- Frieler, Katja, et al.
(författare)
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Scenario setup and forcing data for impact model evaluation and impact attribution within the third round of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3a)
- 2024
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Ingår i: Geoscientific Model Development. - : Copernicus Publications. - 1991-959X .- 1991-9603. ; 17:1, s. 1-51
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper describes the rationale and the protocol of the first component of the third simulation round of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3a, http://www.isimip.org, last access: 2 November 2023) and the associated set of climate-related and direct human forcing data (CRF and DHF, respectively). The observation-based climate-related forcings for the first time include high-resolution observational climate forcings derived by orographic downscaling, monthly to hourly coastal water levels, and wind fields associated with historical tropical cyclones. The DHFs include land use patterns, population densities, information about water and agricultural management, and fishing intensities. The ISIMIP3a impact model simulations driven by these observation-based climate-related and direct human forcings are designed to test to what degree the impact models can explain observed changes in natural and human systems. In a second set of ISIMIP3a experiments the participating impact models are forced by the same DHFs but a counterfactual set of atmospheric forcings and coastal water levels where observed trends have been removed. These experiments are designed to allow for the attribution of observed changes in natural, human, and managed systems to climate change, rising CH4 and CO2 concentrations, and sea level rise according to the definition of the Working Group II contribution to the IPCC AR6.
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