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1.
  • Abbott, Benjamin W., et al. (författare)
  • Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire : an expert assessment
  • 2016
  • Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters. - : IOP Publishing. - 1748-9326. ; 11:3
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • As the permafrost region warms, its large organic carbon pool will be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition, combustion, and hydrologic export. Models predict that some portion of this release will be offset by increased production of Arctic and boreal biomass; however, the lack of robust estimates of net carbon balance increases the risk of further overshooting international emissions targets. Precise empirical or model-based assessments of the critical factors driving carbon balance are unlikely in the near future, so to address this gap, we present estimates from 98 permafrost-region experts of the response of biomass, wildfire, and hydrologic carbon flux to climate change. Results suggest that contrary to model projections, total permafrost-region biomass could decrease due to water stress and disturbance, factors that are not adequately incorporated in current models. Assessments indicate that end-of-the-century organic carbon release from Arctic rivers and collapsing coastlines could increase by 75% while carbon loss via burning could increase four-fold. Experts identified water balance, shifts in vegetation community, and permafrost degradation as the key sources of uncertainty in predicting future system response. In combination with previous findings, results suggest the permafrost region will become a carbon source to the atmosphere by 2100 regardless of warming scenario but that 65%-85% of permafrost carbon release can still be avoided if human emissions are actively reduced.
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2.
  • Mayor, Jordan R., et al. (författare)
  • Nitrogen Isotope Patterns in Alaskan Black Spruce Reflect Organic Nitrogen Sources and the Activity of Ectomycorrhizal Fungi
  • 2012
  • Ingår i: Ecosystems. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1432-9840 .- 1435-0629. ; 15:5, s. 819-831
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Global patterns in soil, plant, and fungal stable isotopes of N (delta N-15) show promise as integrated metrics of N cycling, particularly the activity of ectomycorrhizal (ECM) fungi. At small spatial scales, however, it remains difficult to differentiate the underlying causes of plant delta N-15 variability and this limits the application of such measurements to better understand N cycling. We conducted a landscape-scale analysis of delta N-15 values from 31 putatively N-limited monospecific black spruce (Picea mariana) stands in central Alaska to assess the two main hypothesized sources of plant delta N-15 variation: differing sources and ECM fractionation. We found roughly 20% of the variability in black spruce foliar N and delta N-15 values to be correlated with the concentration and delta N-15 values of soil NH4 (+) and dissolved organic N (DON) pools, respectively. However, N-15-based mixing models from 24 of the stands suggested that fractionation by ECM fungi obscures the N-15 signature of soil N pools. Models, regressions, and N abundance data all suggested that increasing dependence on soil DON to meet black spruce growth demands predicates increasing reliance on ECM-derived N and that black spruce, on average, received 53% of its N from ECM fungi. Future research should partition the delta N-15 values within the soil DON pool to determine how choice of soil delta N-15 values influence modeled ECM activity. The C balance of boreal forests is tightly linked to N cycling and delta N-15 values may be useful metrics of changes to these connections.
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Schuur, Edward A. G. (2)
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