| 1. |
- AbdusSalam, Shehu S., et al.
(författare)
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Simple and statistically sound recommendations for analysing physical theories
- 2022
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Ingår i: Reports on progress in physics (Print). - : IOP Publishing. - 0034-4885 .- 1361-6633. ; 85:5
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Physical theories that depend on many parameters or are tested against data from many different experiments pose unique challenges to statistical inference. Many models in particle physics, astrophysics and cosmology fall into one or both of these categories. These issues are often sidestepped with statistically unsound ad hoc methods, involving intersection of parameter intervals estimated by multiple experiments, and random or grid sampling of model parameters. Whilst these methods are easy to apply, they exhibit pathologies even in low-dimensional parameter spaces, and quickly become problematic to use and interpret in higher dimensions. In this article we give clear guidance for going beyond these procedures, suggesting where possible simple methods for performing statistically sound inference, and recommendations of readily-available software tools and standards that can assist in doing so. Our aim is to provide any physicists lacking comprehensive statistical training with recommendations for reaching correct scientific conclusions, with only a modest increase in analysis burden. Our examples can be reproduced with the code publicly available at Zenodo.
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| 2. |
- Akrami, Yashar, et al.
(författare)
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A Profile Likelihood Analysis of the Constrained MSSM with Genetic Algorithms
- 2010
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Ingår i: Journal of High Energy Physics (JHEP). - 1126-6708 .- 1029-8479. ; :4, s. 057-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Constrained Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (CMSSM) is one of the simplest and most widely-studied supersymmetric extensions to the standard model of particle physics. Nevertheless, current data do not sufficiently constrain the model parameters in a way completely independent of priors, statistical measures and scanning techniques. We present a new technique for scanning supersymmetric parameter spaces, optimised for frequentist profile likelihood analyses and based on Genetic Algorithms. We apply this technique to the CMSSM, taking into account existing collider and cosmological data in our global fit. We compare our method to the MultiNest algorithm, an efficient Bayesian technique, paying particular attention to the best-fit points and implications for particle masses at the LHC and dark matter searches. Our global best-fit point lies in the focus point region. We find many high-likelihood points in both the stau co-annihilation and focus point regions, including a previously neglected section of the co-annihilation region at large m 0. We show that there are many high-likelihood points in the CMSSM parameter space commonly missed by existing scanning techniques, especially at high masses. This has a significant influence on the derived confidence regions for parameters and observables, and can dramatically change the entire statistical inference of such scans.
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| 3. |
- Akrami, Yashar, 1980-, et al.
(författare)
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How well will ton-scale dark matter direct detection experiments constrain minimal supersymmetry?
- 2011
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Ingår i: Journal of Cosmology and Astroparticle Physics. - : IOP Publishing. - 1475-7516. ; :4, s. 012-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Weakly interacting massive particles (WIMPs) are amongst the most interesting dark matter (DM) candidates. Many DM candidates naturally arise in theories beyond the standard model (SM) of particle physics, like weak-scale supersymmetry (SUSY). Experiments aim to detect WIMPs by scattering, annihilation or direct production, and thereby determine the underlying theory to which they belong, along with its parameters. Here we examine the prospects for further constraining the Constrained Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (CMSSM) with future ton-scale direct detection experiments. We consider ton-scale extrapolations of three current experiments: CDMS, XENON and COUPP, with 1000 kg-years of raw exposure each. We assume energy resolutions, energy ranges and efficiencies similar to the current versions of the experiments, and include backgrounds at target levels. Our analysis is based on full likelihood constructions for the experiments. We also take into account present uncertainties on hadronic matrix elements for neutralino-quark couplings, and on halo model parameters. We generate synthetic data based on four benchmark points and scan over the CMSSM parameter space using nested sampling. We construct both Bayesian posterior PDFs and frequentist profile likelihoods for the model parameters, as well as the mass and various cross-sections of the lightest neutralino. Future ton-scale experiments will help substantially in constraining supersymmetry, especially when results of experiments primarily targeting spin-dependent nuclear scattering are combined with those directed more toward spin-independent interactions.
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| 4. |
- Akrami, Yashar, 1980-, et al.
(författare)
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Statistical coverage for supersymmetric parameter estimation : a case study with direct detection of dark matter
- 2011
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Ingår i: Journal of Cosmology and Astroparticle Physics. - : IOP Publishing. - 1475-7516. ; :7, s. 002-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Models of weak-scale supersymmetry offer viable dark matter (DM) candidates. Their parameter spaces are however rather large and complex, such that pinning down the actual parameter values from experimental data can depend strongly on the employed statistical framework and scanning algorithm. In frequentist parameter estimation, a central requirement for properly constructed confidence intervals is that they cover true parameter values, preferably at exactly the stated confidence level when experiments are repeated infinitely many times. Since most widely-used scanning techniques are optimised for Bayesian statistics, one needs to assess their abilities in providing correct confidence intervals in terms of the statistical coverage. Here we investigate this for the Constrained Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (CMSSM) when only constrained by data from direct searches for dark matter. We construct confidence intervals from one-dimensional profile likelihoods and study the coverage by generating several pseudo-experiments for two benchmark sets of pseudo-true parameters. We use nested sampling to scan the parameter space and evaluate the coverage for the two benchmarks when either flat or logarithmic priors are imposed on gaugino and scalar mass parameters. We observe both under- and over-coverage, which in some cases vary quite dramatically when benchmarks or priors are modified. We show how most of the variation can be explained as the impact of explicit and implicit priors, where the latter are indirectly imposed by physicality conditions. For comparison, we also evaluate the coverage for Bayesian credible intervals, and (predictably) observe significant under-coverage in those cases.
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| 5. |
- Allanach, Benjamin C., et al.
(författare)
-
Simple and statistically sound strategies for analysing physical theories
- 2022
-
Ingår i: Reports on progress in physics (Print). - : Institute of Physics Publishing (IOPP). - 0034-4885 .- 1361-6633. ; 85:5
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Physical theories that depend on many parameters or are tested against data from many different experiments pose unique challenges to statistical inference. Many models in particle physics, astrophysics and cosmology fall into one or both of these categories. These issues are often sidestepped with statistically unsound ad hoc methods, involving intersection of parameter intervals estimated by multiple experiments, and random or grid sampling of model parameters. Whilst these methods are easy to apply, they exhibit pathologies even in low-dimensional parameter spaces, and quickly become problematic to use and interpret in higher dimensions. In this article we give clear guidance for going beyond these procedures, suggesting where possible simple methods for performing statistically sound inference, and recommendations of readily-available software tools and standards that can assist in doing so. Our aim is to provide any physicists lacking comprehensive statistical training with recommendations for reaching correct scientific conclusions, with only a modest increase in analysis burden. Our examples can be reproduced with the code publicly available at Zenodo.
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| 6. |
- Asplund, Martin, et al.
(författare)
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The Chemical Composition of the Sun
- 2009
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Ingår i: Annual Review of Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : Annual Reviews. - 0066-4146 .- 1545-4282. ; 47, s. 481-522
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- The solar chemical composition is an important ingredient in our understanding of the formation, structure, and evolution of both the Sun and our Solar System. Furthermore, it is an essential reference standard against which the elemental contents of other astronomical objects are compared. In this review, we evaluate the current understanding of the solar photospheric composition. In particular, we present a redetermination of the abundances of nearly all available elements, using a realistic new three-dimensional (3D), time-dependent hydrodynamical model of the solar atmosphere. We have carefully considered the atomic input data and selection of spectral lines, and accounted for departures from local thermodynamic equilibrium (LTE) whenever possible. The end result is a comprehensive and homogeneous compilation of the solar elemental abundances. Particularly noteworthy findings are significantly lower abundances of C, N, O, and Ne compared to the widely used values of a decade ago. The new solar chemical composition is supported by a high degree of internal consistency between available abundance indicators, and by agreement with values obtained in the Solar Neighborhood and from the most pristine meteorites. There is, however, a stark conflict with standard models of the solar interior according to helio-seismology, a discrepancy that has yet to find a satisfactory resolution.
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| 7. |
- Athron, Peter, et al.
(författare)
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A global fit of the MSSM with GAMBIT
- 2017
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Ingår i: European Physical Journal C. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1434-6044 .- 1434-6052. ; 77:12
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We study the seven-dimensional Minimal Super-symmetric Standard Model (MSSM7) with the new GAMBIT software framework, with all parameters defined at the weak scale. Our analysis significantly extends previous weak-scale, phenomenological MSSM fits, by adding more and newer experimental analyses, improving the accuracy and detail of theoretical predictions, including dominant uncertainties from the Standard Model, the Galactic dark matter halo and the quark content of the nucleon, and employing novel and highly-efficient statistical sampling methods to scan the parameter space. We find regions of the MSSM7 that exhibit co-annihilation of neutralinos with charginos, stops and sbottoms, as well as models that undergo resonant annihilation via both light and heavy Higgs funnels. We find high-likelihood models with light charginos, stops and sbottoms that have the potential to be within the future reach of the LHC. Large parts of our preferred parameter regions will also be accessible to the next generation of direct and indirect dark matter searches, making prospects for discovery in the near future rather good.
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| 8. |
- Athron, Peter, et al.
(författare)
-
GAMBIT : the global and modular beyond-the-standard-model inference tool
- 2017
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Ingår i: European Physical Journal C. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1434-6044 .- 1434-6052. ; 77:11
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We describe the open-source global fitting package GAMBIT: the Global And Modular Beyond-the-Standard-Model Inference Tool. GAMBIT combines extensive calculations of observables and likelihoods in particle and astroparticle physics with a hierarchical model database, advanced tools for automatically building analyses of essentially any model, a flexible and powerful system for interfacing to external codes, a suite of different statistical methods and parameter scanning algorithms, and a host of other utilities designed to make scans faster, safer and more easily-extendible than in the past. Here we give a detailed description of the framework, its design and motivation, and the current models and other specific components presently implemented in GAMBIT. Accompanying papers deal with individual modules and present flrst GAMBIT results. GAMBIT can be downloaded from gambit.hepforge.org.
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| 9. |
- Athron, Peter, et al.
(författare)
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GAMBIT : the global and modular beyond-the-standard-model inference tool
- 2018
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Ingår i: European Physical Journal C. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1434-6044 .- 1434-6052. ; 78:2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In Ref. (GAMBIT Collaboration: Athron et. al., Eur. Phys. J. C. arXiv: 1705.07908, 2017) we introduced the global-fitting framework GAMBIT. In this addendum, we describe a new minor version increment of this package. GAMBIT 1.1 includes full support for Mathematica backends, which we describe in some detail here. As an example, we backend SUSYHD (Vega and Villadoro, JHEP 07: 159, 2015), which calculates the mass of the Higgs boson in the MSSM from effective field theory. We also describe updated likelihoods in PrecisionBit and DarkBit, and updated decay data included in DecayBit.
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| 10. |
- Athron, Peter, et al.
(författare)
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Global analyses of Higgs portal singlet dark matter models using GAMBIT
- 2019
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Ingår i: European Physical Journal C. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1434-6044 .- 1434-6052. ; 79:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present global analyses of effective Higgs portal dark matter models in the frequentist and Bayesian statistical frameworks. Complementing earlier studies of the scalar Higgs portal, we use GAMBIT to determine the preferred mass and coupling ranges for models with vector, Majorana and Dirac fermion dark matter. We also assess the relative plausibility of all four models using Bayesian model comparison. Our analysis includes up-to-date likelihood functions for the dark matter relic density, invisible Higgs decays, and direct and indirect searches for weakly-interacting dark matter including the latest XENON1T data. We also account for important uncertainties arising from the local density and velocity distribution of dark matter, nuclear matrix elements relevant to direct detection, and Standard Model masses and couplings. In all Higgs portal models, we find parameter regions that can explain all of dark matter and give a good fit to all data. The case of vector dark matter requires the most tuning and is therefore slightly disfavoured from a Bayesian point of view. In the case of fermionic dark matter, we find a strong preference for including a CP-violating phase that allows suppression of constraints from direct detection experiments, with odds in favour of CP violation of the order of 100:1. Finally, we present DDCalc2.0.0, a tool for calculating direct detection observables and likelihoods for arbitrary non-relativistic effective operators.
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