| 1. |
- Koster, R., et al.
(författare)
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Contribution of land surface initialization to subseasonal forecast skill: First results from a multi-model experiment
- 2010
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Ingår i: Geophysical Research Letters. - 0094-8276. ; 37
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The second phase of the Global Land-Atmosphere Coupling Experiment (GLACE-2) is aimed at quantifying, with a suite of long-range forecast systems, the degree to which realistic land surface initialization contributes to the skill of subseasonal precipitation and air temperature forecasts. Results, which focus here on North America, show significant contributions to temperature prediction skill out to two months across large portions of the continent. For precipitation forecasts, contributions to skill are much weaker but are still significant out to 45 days in some locations. Skill levels increase markedly when calculations are conditioned on the magnitude of the initial soil moisture anomaly.
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| 2. |
- Koster, R. D., et al.
(författare)
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The Second Phase of the Global Land–Atmosphere Coupling Experiment: Soil Moisture Contributions to Subseasonal Forecast Skill
- 2011
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Ingår i: Journal of Hydrometeorology. - : American Meteorological Society. - 1525-755X .- 1525-7541. ; 12:5, s. 805-822
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The second phase of the Global Land–Atmosphere Coupling Experiment (GLACE-2) is a multi-institutional numerical modeling experiment focused on quantifying, for boreal summer, the subseasonal (out to two months) forecast skill for precipitation and air temperature that can be derived from the realistic initialization of land surface states, notably soil moisture. An overview of the experiment and model behavior at the global scale is described here, along with a determination and characterization of multimodel “consensus” skill. The models show modest but significant skill in predicting air temperatures, especially where the rain gauge network is dense. Given that precipitation is the chief driver of soil moisture, and thereby assuming that rain gauge density is a reasonable proxy for the adequacy of the observational network contributing to soil moisture initialization, this result indeed highlights the potential contribution of enhanced observations to prediction. Land-derived precipitation forecast skill is much weaker than that for air temperature. The skill for predicting air temperature, and to some extent precipitation, increases with the magnitude of the initial soil moisture anomaly. GLACE-2 results are examined further to provide insight into the asymmetric impacts of wet and dry soil moisture initialization on skill.
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| 3. |
- Vanderkelen, I., et al.
(författare)
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Global Heat Uptake by Inland Waters
- 2020
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Ingår i: Geophysical Research Letters. - 0094-8276 .- 1944-8007. ; 47:12
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Heat uptake is a key variable for understanding the Earth system response to greenhouse gas forcing. Despite the importance of this heat budget, heat uptake by inland waters has so far not been quantified. Here we use a unique combination of global‐scale lake models, global hydrological models and Earth system models to quantify global heat uptake by natural lakes, reservoirs, and rivers. The total net heat uptake by inland waters amounts to 2.6 ± 3.2 ×1020 J over the period 1900–2020, corresponding to 3.6% of the energy stored on land. The overall uptake is dominated by natural lakes (111.7%), followed by reservoir warming (2.3%). Rivers contribute negatively (‐14%) due to a decreasing water volume. The thermal energy of water stored in artificial reservoirs exceeds inland water heat uptake by a factor ∼10.4. This first quantification underlines that the heat uptake by inland waters is relatively small, but non‐negligible.
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| 4. |
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| 5. |
- Aemisegger, F., et al.
(författare)
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Deuterium excess as a proxy for continental moisture recycling and plant transpiration
- 2014
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Ingår i: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1680-7324. ; 14:8, s. 4029-4054
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Studying the evaporation process and its link to the atmospheric circulation is central for a better understanding of the feedbacks between the surface water components and the atmosphere. In this study, we use 5 months of deuterium excess (d) measurements at the hourly to daily timescale from a cavity ring-down laser spectrometer to characterise the evaporation source of low-level continental water vapour at the long-term hydrometeorological monitoring site Rietholzbach in northeastern Switzerland. To reconstruct the phase change history of the air masses in which we measure the d signature and to diagnose its area of surface evaporation we apply a Lagrangian moisture source diagnostic. With the help of a correlation analysis we investigate the strength of the relation between d measurements and the moisture source conditions. Temporal episodes with a duration of a few days of strong anticorrelation between d and relative humidity as well as temperature are identified. The role of plant transpiration, the large-scale advection of remotely evaporated moisture, the local boundary layer dynamics at the measurement site and recent precipitation at the site of evaporation are discussed as reasons for the existence of these modes of strong anticorrelation between d and moisture source conditions. We show that the importance of continental moisture recycling and the contribution of plant transpiration to the continental evaporation flux may be deduced from the d-relative humidity relation at the seasonal timescale as well as for individual events. The methodology and uncertainties associated with these estimates of the transpiration fraction of evapotranspiration are presented and the proposed novel framework is applied to individual events from our data set. Over the whole analysis period (August to December 2011) a transpiration fraction of the evapotranspiration flux over the continental part of the moisture source region of 62 % is found albeit with a large event-to-event variability (0 % to 89 %) for continental Europe. During days of strong local moisture recycling a higher overall transpiration fraction of 76 % (varying between 65 % and 86 %) is found. These estimates are affected by uncertainties in the assumptions involved in our method as well as by parameter uncertainties. An average uncertainty of 11 % results from the strong dependency of the transpiration estimates on the choice of the non-equilibrium fractionation factor. Other uncertainty sources like the influence of boundary layer dynamics are probably large but more difficult to quantify. Nevertheless, such Lagrangian estimates of the transpiration part of continental evaporation could potentially be useful for the verification of model estimates of this important land-atmosphere coupling parameter.
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| 6. |
- Chen, Deliang, 1961, et al.
(författare)
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Summary of a workshop on extreme weather events in a warming world organized by the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences
- 2020
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Ingår i: Tellus Series B-Chemical and Physical Meteorology. - : Stockholm University Press. - 1600-0889 .- 0280-6509. ; 72:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Climate change is not only about changes in means of climatic variables such as temperature, precipitation and wind, but also their extreme values which are of critical importance to human society and ecosystems. To inspire the Swedish climate research community and to promote assessments of international research on past and future changes in extreme weather events against the global climate change background, the Earth Science Class of the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences organized a workshop entitled 'Extreme weather events in a warming world' in 2019. This article summarizes and synthesizes the key points from the presentations and discussions of the workshop on changes in floods, droughts, heat waves, as well as on tropical cyclones and extratropical storms. In addition to reviewing past achievements in these research fields and identifying research gaps with a focus on Sweden, future challenges and opportunities for the Swedish climate research community are highlighted.
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