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1.
  • Lozano, Rafael, et al. (författare)
  • Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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  • Stanaway, Jeffrey D., et al. (författare)
  • Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1923-1994
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk- outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.
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3.
  • Choudhary, Anita, et al. (författare)
  • Effect of Yoga versus Light Exercise to Improve Well-Being and Promote Healthy Aging among Older Adults in Central India : A Study Protocol for a Randomized Controlled Trial
  • 2019
  • Ingår i: GERIATRICS. - : MDPI. - 2308-3417. ; 4:4
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background: Aging is a natural process associated with many functional and structural changes. These changes may include impaired self-regulation, changes in tissues and organs. Aging also affects mood, physical status and social activity. There are adverse changes in cognitive behavior, perceived sensation and thinking processes. Regular physical activity can alleviate many health problems; yet, many older adults are inactive. Yoga is one of the scientific and popular lifestyle practice considered as the integration of mind, body and soul. Results of previous studies reported positive effects of yoga on multiple health outcomes in elderly. However, there is scarcity of scientific information where yoga's effect is examined on over well-being and on multiple health outcomes simultaneously in elderly. This protocol describes methods for a 12-week yoga-based intervention exploring the effects of yoga on well-being in physically inactive elderly living in community.Methods and analysis: This two group parallel single blind randomized controlled trial that will be conducted at a designated facility of R.D. Gardi Medical College, Ujjain, Madhya Pradesh, Central India. A 12-week 60-min yoga intervention three times weekly is designed. Comparison group participants will undergo a 60-min program comprising light exercise focusing on conventional stretching to improve mobility. After screening, 144 participants aged 60-80 years will be recruited. The primary outcome is subjective well-being. Secondary outcomes include mobility, fall risk, cognition, anxiety and depression, mood and stress, sleep quality, pain, physical activity/sedentary behavior and cardio-metabolic risk factors. Assessments will be conducted at baseline (0 week), after the intervention (12+1 week) and at follow-up (36+1 week). Intention-to-treat analyses with mixed linear modeling will be applied.Discussion: Through this trial, we aim to determine whether elderly people in the intervention group practicing yoga show more favorable primary (well-being) and secondary outcomes than those in the light exercise focusing on conventional stretching group. We assume that yoga may be practiced to maintain health, reduce particular symptoms commonly associated with skeletal pain, assist in pain relief and enhance well-being. We anticipate that practicing yoga will improve well-being and mental health and may lead to significant improvement in depression, pain and sleep quality.Ethics and dissemination: This study is approved by the Institutional Ethics Committee of R.D. Gardi Medical College, Ujjain, IEC Ref No. 09/2018. All participants would be provided with written and verbal information about the purpose of the project and would be free to withdraw from the study at any time. Refusal to participate in the study would not have any negative consequences. Confidentiality of the information of each participant would be ensured. Knowledge obtained would be disseminated to stakeholders through workshops, meetings and relevant scientific conferences.Trial Registration: The trial is prospectively registered with the Indian Council of Medical Research Trial Registry CTRI/2018/07/015051.
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  • Gurung, Rejina, et al. (författare)
  • Predictors for timely initiation of breastfeeding after birth in the hospitals of Nepal- a prospective observational study.
  • 2021
  • Ingår i: International breastfeeding journal. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1746-4358. ; 16:1
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Timely initiation of breastfeeding can reduce neonatal morbidities and mortality. We aimed to study predictors for timely initiation of breastfeeding (within 1 h of birth) among neonates born in hospitals of Nepal.A prospective observational study was conducted in four public hospitals between July and October 2018. All women admitted in the hospital for childbirth and who consented were included in the study. An independent researchers observed whether the neonates were placed in skin-to-skin contact, delay cord clamping and timely initiation of breastfeeding. Sociodemographic variables, obstetric and neonate information were extracted from the maternity register. We analysed predictors for timely initiation of breastfeeding with Pearson chi-square test and multivariate logistic regression.Among the 6488 woman-infant pair observed, breastfeeding was timely initiated in 49.5% neonates. The timely initiation of breastfeeding was found to be higher among neonates who were placed skin-to-skin contact (34.9% vs 19.9%, p - value < 0.001). The timely initiation of breastfeeding was higher if the cord clamping was delayed than early cord clamped neonates (44.5% vs 35.3%, p - value < 0.001). In multivariate analysis, a mother with no obstetric complication during admission had 57% higher odds of timely initiation of breastfeeding (aOR 1.57; 95% CI 1.33, 1.86). Multiparity was associated with less timely initiation of breastfeeding (aOR 1.56; 95% CI 1.35, 1.82). Similarly, there was more common practice of timely initiation of breastfeeding among low birthweight neonates (aOR 1.46; 95% CI 1.21, 1.76). Neonates who were placed skin-to-skin contact with mother had more than two-fold higher odds of timely breastfeeding (aOR 2.52; 95% CI 2.19, 2.89). Likewise, neonates who had their cord intact for 3 min had 37% higher odds of timely breastfeeding (aOR 1.37; 95% CI 1.21, 1.55).The rate of timely initiation of breastfeeding practice is low in the health facilities of Nepal. Multiparity, no obstetric complication at admission, neonates placed in skin-to-skin contact and delay cord clamping were strong predictors for timely initiation of breastfeeding. Quality improvement intervention can improve skin-to-skin contact, delayed cord clamping and timely initiation of breastfeeding.
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6.
  • Holloway, Bronwen, et al. (författare)
  • Antibiotic use before, during and after seeking care for acute febrile illness at a hospital outpatient department : a cross-sectional study from rural India
  • 2022
  • Ingår i: Antibiotics. - : MDPI AG. - 0066-4774 .- 2079-6382. ; 11:5
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Antibiotic resistance is a naturally occurring phenomenon, but the misuse and overuse of antibiotics is accelerating the process. This study aimed to quantify and compare antibiotic use before, during, and after seeking outpatient care for acute febrile illness in Ujjain, India. Data were collected through interviews with patients/patient attendants. The prevalence and choice of antibiotics is described by the WHO AWaRe categories and Anatomical Therapeutic Chemical classes, comparing between age groups. Units of measurement include courses, encounters, and Defined Daily Doses (DDDs). The antibiotic prescription during the outpatient visit was also described in relation to the patients’ presumptive diagnosis. Of 1000 included patients, 31.1% (n = 311) received one antibiotic course, 8.1% (n = 81) two, 1.3% (n = 13) three, 0.4% (n = 4) four, 0.1% (n = 1) five, and the remaining 59.0% (n = 590) received no antibiotics. The leading contributors to the total antibiotic volume in the DDDs were macrolides (30.3%), combinations of penicillins, including β-lactamase inhibitors (18.8%), tetracyclines (14.8%), fluoroquinolones (14.6%), and third-generation cephalosporins (13.7%). ‘Watch’ antibiotics accounted for 72.3%, 52.7%, and 64.0% of encounters before, during, and after the outpatient visit, respectively. Acute viral illness accounted for almost half of the total DDDs at the outpatient visit (642.1/1425.3, 45.1%), for which the macrolide antibiotic azithromycin was the most frequently prescribed antibiotic (261.3/642.1, 40.7%). 
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8.
  • Lindsjö, Cecilia, et al. (författare)
  • Surgical site infections, occurrence, and risk factors, before and after an alcohol-based handrub intervention in a general surgical department in a rural hospital in Ujjain, India
  • 2015
  • Ingår i: American Journal of Infection Control. - : Elsevier BV. - 0196-6553 .- 1527-3296. ; 43:11, s. 1184-1189
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background: This study set out to determine occurrence of and risk factors for surgical site infections (SSIs) before and after implementation of an alcohol-based handrub (ABHR) intervention in general surgery wards in a rural, tertiary care hospital in India. Methods: Patients who underwent surgery between October 2010 and August 2011 (preintervention period) or September 2011 and August 2013 (intervention period) in the department of surgery were included. ABHR was introduced in September 2011. SSI was defined as per the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention guidelines. Comparison of SSI rate between the 2 periods was performed using analysis of variance. Risk factors were determined using multiple logistic regression models. Results: Incidence of SSI was 5% (36/720) and 6.5% (103/1,581) respectively, showing nonsignificant difference (P = .5735). The risk factor common for SSI in both periods was the duration of surgery (OR = 2.6 vs OR = 1.96, pre- and intervention periods, respectively). Risk factors in the intervention period were being a woman (OR = 2.18), renal disease (OR = 3.61), diabetes (OR = 4.43), smoking (OR = 2.14), preoperative hospitalization (<3 vs >15 days; OR = 3.22), and previous hospitalization (OR = 3.5). Compared with other studies, the amount of ABHR used in our study was low. Conclusion: The amount of ABHR used might not be sufficient to interrupt the chain of contamination of microorganisms; therefore, continuation of the intervention and surveillance is recommended.
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9.
  • Murray, Christopher J. L., et al. (författare)
  • Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1995-2051
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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10.
  • Pathak, Ashish, 1973-, et al. (författare)
  • Characterization of drug resistance associated genetic polymorphisms among Plasmodium falciparum field isolates in Ujjain, Madhya Pradesh, India.
  • 2014
  • Ingår i: Malaria Journal. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1475-2875 .- 1475-2875. ; 13, s. 182-
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • BACKGROUND: Since 2011, artesunate + sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine (ASP), instead of chloroquine, has been recommended for treatment of uncomplicated malaria in India. In Ujjain, central India, with an annual parasite index <0.1, the prevalence of drug-resistant Plasmodium falciparum is unknown. In other parts of India chloroquine and sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine-resistant P. falciparum is prevalent. The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence of anti-malarial drug resistance-associated genetic polymorphisms in P. falciparum collected in Ujjain in 2009 and 2010, prior to the introduction of ASP.METHODS: Blood samples from 87 patients with P. falciparum mono-infection verified by microscopy were collected on filter-paper at all nine major pathology laboratories in Ujjain city. Codons Pfcrt 72-76, pfmdr1 1034-1246, pfdhfr 16-185, pfdhps 436-632 and pfnhe1 ms4760 haplotypes were identified by sequencing. Pfcrt K76T and pfmdr1 N86Y were identified by restriction fragment length polymorphism, and pfmdr1 gene copy number by real-time PCR.RESULTS: Sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine resistance-associated pfdhfr 108 N and 59R alleles were found in 75/78 (96%) and 70/78 (90%) samples, respectively, and pfdhps 437G was found in 7/77 (9%) samples. Double mutant pfdhfr 59R + 108 N were found in 62/76 (82%) samples. Triple mutant pfdhfr 59R + 108 N and pfdhps 437G were found in 6/76 (8%) samples. Chloroquine-resistance-associated pfcrt 76 T was found in 82/87 (94%). The pfcrt 72-76 haplotypes found were: 80/84 (95%) SVMNT, 3/84 (4%) CVMNK and 1/84 (1%) CVMNT. Pfmdr1 N86 and 86Y were identified in 70/83 (84%) and 13/83 (16%) samples, respectively. Pfmdr1 S1034 + N1042 + D1246 were identified together in 70/72 (97%) of successfully sequenced samples. One pfmdr1 gene copy was found in 74/75 (99%) successfully amplified samples.CONCLUSION: This is the first characterization of key anti-malarial drug resistance-associated genetic markers among P. falciparum collected in Ujjain, Madhya Pradesh, India. The results indicate that the efficacy of standard dose chloroquine at the time of the study was likely to be poor, whereas ASP was likely to be efficacious, supporting the changed drug treatment policy. However, P. falciparum with reduced susceptibility to sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine is highly prevalent, highlighting the need for continuous surveillance of ASP efficacy in the study area.
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