| 1. |
- Bentham, James, et al.
(författare)
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A century of trends in adult human height
- 2016
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Ingår i: eLIFE. - 2050-084X. ; 5
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Being taller is associated with enhanced longevity, and higher education and earnings. We reanalysed 1472 population-based studies, with measurement of height on more than 18.6 million participants to estimate mean height for people born between 1896 and 1996 in 200 countries. The largest gain in adult height over the past century has occurred in South Korean women and Iranian men, who became 20.2 cm (95% credible interval 17.522.7) and 16.5 cm (13.319.7) taller, respectively. In contrast, there was little change in adult height in some sub-Saharan African countries and in South Asia over the century of analysis. The tallest people over these 100 years are men born in the Netherlands in the last quarter of 20th century, whose average heights surpassed 182.5 cm, and the shortest were women born in Guatemala in 1896 (140.3 cm; 135.8144.8). The height differential between the tallest and shortest populations was 19-20 cm a century ago, and has remained the same for women and increased for men a century later despite substantial changes in the ranking of countries.
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| 2. |
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| 3. |
- Bentham, James, et al.
(författare)
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A century of trends in adult human height
- 2016
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Ingår i: eLIFE. - : eLife Sciences Publications Ltd. - 2050-084X. ; 5
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Being taller is associated with enhanced longevity, and higher education and earnings. We reanalysed 1472 population-based studies, with measurement of height on more than 18.6 million participants to estimate mean height for people born between 1896 and 1996 in 200 countries. The largest gain in adult height over the past century has occurred in South Korean women and Iranian men, who became 20.2 cm (95% credible interval 17.5–22.7) and 16.5 cm (13.3– 19.7) taller, respectively. In contrast, there was little change in adult height in some sub-Saharan African countries and in South Asia over the century of analysis. The tallest people over these 100 years are men born in the Netherlands in the last quarter of 20th century, whose average heights surpassed 182.5 cm, and the shortest were women born in Guatemala in 1896 (140.3 cm; 135.8– 144.8). The height differential between the tallest and shortest populations was 19-20 cm a century ago, and has remained the same for women and increased for men a century later despite substantial changes in the ranking of countries.
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| 4. |
- Zhou, Bin, et al.
(författare)
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Worldwide trends in diabetes since 1980: A pooled analysis of 751 population-based studies with 4.4 million participants
- 2016
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier B.V.. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 387:10027, s. 1513-1530
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: One of the global targets for non-communicable diseases is to halt, by 2025, the rise in the age standardised adult prevalence of diabetes at its 2010 levels. We aimed to estimate worldwide trends in diabetes, how likely it is for countries to achieve the global target, and how changes in prevalence, together with population growth and ageing, are aff ecting the number of adults with diabetes.Methods: We pooled data from population-based studies that had collected data on diabetes through measurement of its biomarkers. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in diabetes prevalence-defined as fasting plasma glucose of 7.0 mmol/L or higher, or history of diagnosis with diabetes, or use of insulin or oral hypoglycaemic drugs-in 200 countries and territories in 21 regions, by sex and from 1980 to 2014. We also calculated the posterior probability of meeting the global diabetes target if post-2000 trends continue.Findings: We used data from 751 studies including 4372000 adults from 146 of the 200 countries we make estimates for. Global age-standardised diabetes prevalence increased from 4.3% (95% credible interval 2.4-17.0) in 1980 to 9.0% (7.2-11.1) in 2014 in men, and from 5.0% (2.9-7.9) to 7.9% (6.4-9.7) in women. The number of adults with diabetes in the world increased from 108 million in 1980 to 422 million in 2014 (28.5% due to the rise in prevalence, 39.7% due to population growth and ageing, and 31.8% due to interaction of these two factors). Age-standardised adult diabetes prevalence in 2014 was lowest in northwestern Europe, and highest in Polynesia and Micronesia, at nearly 25%, followed by Melanesia and the Middle East and north Africa. Between 1980 and 2014 there was little change in age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adult women in continental western Europe, although crude prevalence rose because of ageing of the population. By contrast, age-standardised adult prevalence rose by 15 percentage points in men and women in Polynesia and Micronesia. In 2014, American Samoa had the highest national prevalence of diabetes (>30% in both sexes), with age-standardised adult prevalence also higher than 25% in some other islands in Polynesia and Micronesia. If post-2000 trends continue, the probability of meeting the global target of halting the rise in the prevalence of diabetes by 2025 at the 2010 level worldwide is lower than 1% for men and is 1% for women. Only nine countries for men and 29 countries for women, mostly in western Europe, have a 50% or higher probability of meeting the global target.Interpretation: Since 1980, age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adults has increased, or at best remained unchanged, in every country. Together with population growth and ageing, this rise has led to a near quadrupling of the number of adults with diabetes worldwide. The burden of diabetes, both in terms of prevalence and number of adults aff ected, has increased faster in low-income and middle-income countries than in high-income countries.
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| 5. |
- Brunner, Fabian J., et al.
(författare)
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Application of non-HDL cholesterol for population-based cardiovascular risk stratification : results from the Multinational Cardiovascular Risk Consortium
- 2019
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 394:10215, s. 2173-2183
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: The relevance of blood lipid concentrations to long-term incidence of cardiovascular disease and the relevance of lipid-lowering therapy for cardiovascular disease outcomes is unclear. We investigated the cardiovascular disease risk associated with the full spectrum of bloodstream non-HDL cholesterol concentrations. We also created an easy-to-use tool to estimate the long-term probabilities for a cardiovascular disease event associated with non-HDL cholesterol and modelled its risk reduction by lipid-lowering treatment.Methods: In this risk-evaluation and risk-modelling study, we used Multinational Cardiovascular Risk Consortium data from 19 countries across Europe, Australia, and North America. Individuals without prevalent cardiovascular disease at baseline and with robust available data on cardiovascular disease outcomes were included. The primary composite endpoint of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease was defined as the occurrence of the coronary heart disease event or ischaemic stroke. Sex-specific multivariable analyses were computed using non-HDL cholesterol categories according to the European guideline thresholds, adjusted for age, sex, cohort, and classical modifiable cardiovascular risk factors. In a derivation and validation design, we created a tool to estimate the probabilities of a cardiovascular disease event by the age of 75 years, dependent on age, sex, and risk factors, and the associated modelled risk reduction, assuming a 50% reduction of non-HDL cholesterol.Findings: Of the 524 444 individuals in the 44 cohorts in the Consortium database, we identified 398 846 individuals belonging to 38 cohorts (184 055 [48·7%] women; median age 51·0 years [IQR 40·7–59·7]). 199 415 individuals were included in the derivation cohort (91 786 [48·4%] women) and 199 431 (92 269 [49·1%] women) in the validation cohort. During a maximum follow-up of 43·6 years (median 13·5 years, IQR 7·0–20·1), 54 542 cardiovascular endpoints occurred. Incidence curve analyses showed progressively higher 30-year cardiovascular disease event-rates for increasing non-HDL cholesterol categories (from 7·7% for non-HDL cholesterol <2·6 mmol/L to 33·7% for ≥5·7 mmol/L in women and from 12·8% to 43·6% in men; p<0·0001). Multivariable adjusted Cox models with non-HDL cholesterol lower than 2·6 mmol/L as reference showed an increase in the association between non-HDL cholesterol concentration and cardiovascular disease for both sexes (from hazard ratio 1·1, 95% CI 1·0–1·3 for non-HDL cholesterol 2·6 to <3·7 mmol/L to 1·9, 1·6–2·2 for ≥5·7 mmol/L in women and from 1·1, 1·0–1·3 to 2·3, 2·0–2·5 in men). The derived tool allowed the estimation of cardiovascular disease event probabilities specific for non-HDL cholesterol with high comparability between the derivation and validation cohorts as reflected by smooth calibration curves analyses and a root mean square error lower than 1% for the estimated probabilities of cardiovascular disease. A 50% reduction of non-HDL cholesterol concentrations was associated with reduced risk of a cardiovascular disease event by the age of 75 years, and this risk reduction was greater the earlier cholesterol concentrations were reduced.Interpretation: Non-HDL cholesterol concentrations in blood are strongly associated with long-term risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease. We provide a simple tool for individual long-term risk assessment and the potential benefit of early lipid-lowering intervention. These data could be useful for physician–patient communication about primary prevention strategies.
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| 6. |
- Magnussen, Christina, et al.
(författare)
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Global effect of modifiable risk factors on cardiovascular disease and mortality
- 2023
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Ingår i: New England Journal of Medicine. - : Massachusetts Medical Society. - 0028-4793 .- 1533-4406. ; 389:14, s. 1273-1285
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Five modifiable risk factors are associated with cardiovascular disease and death from any cause. Studies using individual-level data to evaluate the regional and sex-specific prevalence of the risk factors and their effect on these outcomes are lacking.Methods: We pooled and harmonized individual-level data from 112 cohort studies conducted in 34 countries and 8 geographic regions participating in the Global Cardiovascular Risk Consortium. We examined associations between the risk factors (body-mass index, systolic blood pressure, non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, current smoking, and diabetes) and incident cardiovascular disease and death from any cause using Cox regression analyses, stratified according to geographic region, age, and sex. Population-attributable fractions were estimated for the 10-year incidence of cardiovascular disease and 10-year all-cause mortality.Results: Among 1,518,028 participants (54.1% of whom were women) with a median age of 54.4 years, regional variations in the prevalence of the five modifiable risk factors were noted. Incident cardiovascular disease occurred in 80,596 participants during a median follow-up of 7.3 years (maximum, 47.3), and 177,369 participants died during a median follow-up of 8.7 years (maximum, 47.6). For all five risk factors combined, the aggregate global population-attributable fraction of the 10-year incidence of cardiovascular disease was 57.2% (95% confidence interval [CI], 52.4 to 62.1) among women and 52.6% (95% CI, 49.0 to 56.1) among men, and the corresponding values for 10-year all-cause mortality were 22.2% (95% CI, 16.8 to 27.5) and 19.1% (95% CI, 14.6 to 23.6).Conclusions: Harmonized individual-level data from a global cohort showed that 57.2% and 52.6% of cases of incident cardiovascular disease among women and men, respectively, and 22.2% and 19.1% of deaths from any cause among women and men, respectively, may be attributable to five modifiable risk factors. (Funded by the German Center for Cardiovascular Research (DZHK); ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT05466825.)
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| 7. |
- Cameron, Adrian J, et al.
(författare)
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Central obesity as a precursor to the metabolic syndrome in the AusDiab study and Mauritius.
- 2008
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Ingår i: Obesity (Silver Spring, Md.). - : Wiley. - 1930-7381. ; 16:12, s. 2707-16
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Evidence from epidemiologic studies that central obesity precedes future metabolic change and does not occur concurrently with the appearance of the blood pressure, glucose, and lipid abnormalities that characterize the metabolic syndrome (MetS) has been lacking. Longitudinal surveys were conducted in Mauritius in 1987, 1992, and 1998, and in Australia in 2000 and 2005 (AusDiab). This analysis included men and women (aged > or = 25 years) in three cohorts: AusDiab 2000-2005 (n = 5,039), Mauritius 1987-1992 (n = 2,849), and Mauritius 1987-1998 (n = 1,999). MetS components included waist circumference, systolic blood pressure, fasting and 2-h postload plasma glucose, high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol, triglycerides, and homeostasis model assessment of insulin sensitivity (HOMA-S) (representing insulin sensitivity). Linear regression was used to determine which baseline components predicted deterioration in other MetS components over 5 years in AusDiab and 5 and 11 years in Mauritius, adjusted for age, sex, and ethnic group. Baseline waist circumference predicted deterioration (P < 0.01) in four of the other six MetS variables tested in AusDiab, five of six in Mauritius 1987-1992, and four of six in Mauritius 1987-1998. In contrast, an increase in waist circumference between baseline and follow-up was only predicted by insulin sensitivity (HOMA-S) at baseline, and only in one of the three cohorts. These results suggest that central obesity plays a central role in the development of the MetS and appears to precede the appearance of the other MetS components.
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| 8. |
- Cameron, Adrian J., et al.
(författare)
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The influence of hip circumference on the relationship between abdominal obesity and mortality
- 2012
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Ingår i: International Journal of Epidemiology. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0300-5771 .- 1464-3685. ; 41:2, s. 484-494
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Higher waist circumference and lower hip circumference are both associated with increased cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk, despite being directly correlated. The real effects of visceral obesity may therefore be underestimated when hip circumference is not fully taken into account. We hypothesized that adding waist and hip circumference to traditional risk factors would significantly improve CVD risk prediction. Methods In a population-based survey among South Asian and African Mauritians (n = 7978), 1241 deaths occurred during 15 years of follow-up. In a model that included variables used in previous CVD risk calculations (a Framingham-type model), the association between waist circumference and mortality was examined before and after adjustment for hip circumference. The percentage with an increase in estimated 10-year cumulative mortality of > 25% and a decrease of > 20% after waist and hip circumference were added to the model was calculated. Results Waist circumference was strongly related to mortality only after adjustment for hip circumference and vice versa. Adding waist and hip circumference to a Framingham-type model increased estimated 10-year cumulative CVD mortality by > 25% for 23.7% of those who died and 15.7% of those censored. Cumulative mortality decreased by > 20% for 4.5% of those who died and 14.8% of those censored. Conclusions The effect of central obesity on mortality risk is seriously underestimated without adjustment for hip circumference. Adding waist and hip circumference to a Framingham-type model for CVD mortality substantially increased predictive power. Both may be important inclusions in CVD risk prediction models.
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| 9. |
- Harding, Jessica L., et al.
(författare)
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All-cause cancer mortality over 15 years in multi-ethnic Mauritius : The impact of diabetes and intermediate forms of glucose tolerance
- 2012
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Ingår i: International Journal of Cancer. - : Wiley. - 0020-7136 .- 1097-0215. ; 131:10, s. 2385-2393
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- There are accumulating data describing the association between diabetes and cancer mortality from Westernised populations. There are no data describing the relationship between diabetes and cancer mortality in African or South Asian populations from developing countries. We explored the relationship of abnormal glucose tolerance and diabetes on cancer mortality risk in a large, multi-ethnic cohort from the developing nation of Mauritius. Population-based surveys were undertaken in 1987, 1992 and 1998. The 9559 participants comprised 66% of South Asian (Indian), 27% of African (Creole), and 7% of Chinese descent. Cox's proportional hazards model with time varying covariates was used to obtain hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) for risk of cancer mortality, after adjustment for confounding factors. In men, but not women, cancer mortality risk increased with rising 2h-PG levels with HR for the top versus bottom quintile of 2.77 (95%CI: 1.28 to 5.98). South Asian men with known diabetes had a significantly greater risk of cancer mortality than those with normal glucose tolerance (NGT) HR: 2.74 (95%CI: 1.00-7.56). Overall, impaired glucose tolerance was associated with an elevated risk of cancer mortality compared to NGT (HR: 1.47, 95% CI: 0.982.19), though this was not significant. We have shown that the association between abnormal glucose tolerance and cancer extends to those of African and South Asian descent. These results highlight the importance of understanding this relationship in a global context to direct future health policy given the rapid increase in type 2 diabetes, especially in developing nations.
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| 10. |
- Hare, Matthew JL, et al.
(författare)
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Glucose-independent ethnic differences in HbA(1c), in people without known diabetes
- 2013
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Ingår i: Diabetes Care. - : American Diabetes Association. - 0149-5992 .- 1935-5548. ; 36:6, s. 1534-1540
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- OBJECTIVE To determine whether glucose-independent differences in HbA(1c) exist between people of African, South Asian, and Chinese ethnicities.RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS Data from 6,701 people aged 19-78 years, without known diabetes, from Mauritius, and participating in the population-based Non-Communicable Disease Surveys of the main island and the island of Rodrigues were included. Participants were African (n = 1,219 from main island, n = 1,505 from Rodrigues), South Asian (n = 3,820), and Chinese (n = 157). Survey data included HbA(1c), plasma glucose during oral glucose tolerance testing (OGTT), anthropometry, demographics, and medical and lifestyle history.RESULTS Mean HbA(1c), after adjustment for fasting and 2-h plasma glucose and other factors known to influence HbA(1c), was higher in Africans from Rodrigues (6.1%) than in South Asians (5.7%, P < 0.001), Chinese (5.7%, P < 0.001), or Africans from the main island of Mauritius (5.7%, P < 0.001). The age-standardized prevalence of diabetes among Africans from Rodrigues differed substantially depending on the diagnostic criteria used [OGTT 7.9% (95% CI 5.8-10.0); HbA(1c) 17.3% (15.3-19.2)]. Changing diagnostic criteria resulted in no significant change in the prevalence of diabetes within the other ethnic groups.CONCLUSIONS People of African ethnicity from Rodrigues have higher HbA(1c) than those of South Asian or African ethnicity from the main island of Mauritius for reasons not explained by plasma glucose during an OGTT or traditional factors known to affect glycemia. Further research should be directed at determining the mechanism behind this disparity and its relevance to clinical outcomes.
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