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1.
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
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2.
  • Gakidou, E., et al. (författare)
  • Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 390:10100, s. 1345-1422
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of risk factor exposure and attributable burden of disease. By providing estimates over a long time series, this study can monitor risk exposure trends critical to health surveillance and inform policy debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2016. This study included 481 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk (RR) and exposure estimates from 22 717 randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources, according to the GBD 2016 source counting methods. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. Finally, we explored four drivers of trends in attributable burden: population growth, population ageing, trends in risk exposure, and all other factors combined. Findings Since 1990, exposure increased significantly for 30 risks, did not change significantly for four risks, and decreased significantly for 31 risks. Among risks that are leading causes of burden of disease, child growth failure and household air pollution showed the most significant declines, while metabolic risks, such as body-mass index and high fasting plasma glucose, showed significant increases. In 2016, at Level 3 of the hierarchy, the three leading risk factors in terms of attributable DALYs at the global level for men were smoking (124.1 million DALYs [95% UI 111.2 million to 137.0 million]), high systolic blood pressure (122.2 million DALYs [110.3 million to 133.3 million], and low birthweight and short gestation (83.0 million DALYs [78.3 million to 87.7 million]), and for women, were high systolic blood pressure (89.9 million DALYs [80.9 million to 98.2 million]), high body-mass index (64.8 million DALYs [44.4 million to 87.6 million]), and high fasting plasma glucose (63.8 million DALYs [53.2 million to 76.3 million]). In 2016 in 113 countries, the leading risk factor in terms of attributable DALYs was a metabolic risk factor. Smoking remained among the leading five risk factors for DALYs for 109 countries, while low birthweight and short gestation was the leading risk factor for DALYs in 38 countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. In terms of important drivers of change in trends of burden attributable to risk factors, between 2006 and 2016 exposure to risks explains an 9.3% (6.9-11.6) decline in deaths and a 10.8% (8.3-13.1) decrease in DALYs at the global level, while population ageing accounts for 14.9% (12.7-17.5) of deaths and 6.2% (3.9-8.7) of DALYs, and population growth for 12.4% (10.1-14.9) of deaths and 12.4% (10.1-14.9) of DALYs. The largest contribution of trends in risk exposure to disease burden is seen between ages 1 year and 4 years, where a decline of 27.3% (24.9-29.7) of the change in DALYs between 2006 and 2016 can be attributed to declines in exposure to risks. Interpretation Increasingly detailed understanding of the trends in risk exposure and the RRs for each risk-outcome pair provide insights into both the magnitude of health loss attributable to risks and how modification of risk exposure has contributed to health trends. Metabolic risks warrant particular policy attention, due to their large contribution to global disease burden, increasing trends, and variable patterns across countries at the same level of development. GBD 2016 findings show that, while it has huge potential to improve health, risk modification has played a relatively small part in the past decade. Copyright (C) The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.
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  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
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  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
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  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
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  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
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  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
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  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
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9.
  • Kassebaum, Nicholas J, et al. (författare)
  • Global, regional, and national levels and causes of maternal mortality during 1990-2013 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
  • 2014
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 384:9947, s. 980-1004
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • BACKGROUND: The fifth Millennium Development Goal (MDG 5) established the goal of a 75% reduction in the maternal mortality ratio (MMR; number of maternal deaths per 100 000 livebirths) between 1990 and 2015. We aimed to measure levels and track trends in maternal mortality, the key causes contributing to maternal death, and timing of maternal death with respect to delivery.METHODS: We used robust statistical methods including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) to analyse a database of data for 7065 site-years and estimate the number of maternal deaths from all causes in 188 countries between 1990 and 2013. We estimated the number of pregnancy-related deaths caused by HIV on the basis of a systematic review of the relative risk of dying during pregnancy for HIV-positive women compared with HIV-negative women. We also estimated the fraction of these deaths aggravated by pregnancy on the basis of a systematic review. To estimate the numbers of maternal deaths due to nine different causes, we identified 61 sources from a systematic review and 943 site-years of vital registration data. We also did a systematic review of reports about the timing of maternal death, identifying 142 sources to use in our analysis. We developed estimates for each country for 1990-2013 using Bayesian meta-regression. We estimated 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for all values.FINDINGS: 292 982 (95% UI 261 017-327 792) maternal deaths occurred in 2013, compared with 376 034 (343 483-407 574) in 1990. The global annual rate of change in the MMR was -0·3% (-1·1 to 0·6) from 1990 to 2003, and -2·7% (-3·9 to -1·5) from 2003 to 2013, with evidence of continued acceleration. MMRs reduced consistently in south, east, and southeast Asia between 1990 and 2013, but maternal deaths increased in much of sub-Saharan Africa during the 1990s. 2070 (1290-2866) maternal deaths were related to HIV in 2013, 0·4% (0·2-0·6) of the global total. MMR was highest in the oldest age groups in both 1990 and 2013. In 2013, most deaths occurred intrapartum or postpartum. Causes varied by region and between 1990 and 2013. We recorded substantial variation in the MMR by country in 2013, from 956·8 (685·1-1262·8) in South Sudan to 2·4 (1·6-3·6) in Iceland.INTERPRETATION: Global rates of change suggest that only 16 countries will achieve the MDG 5 target by 2015. Accelerated reductions since the Millennium Declaration in 2000 coincide with increased development assistance for maternal, newborn, and child health. Setting of targets and associated interventions for after 2015 will need careful consideration of regions that are making slow progress, such as west and central Africa.
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10.
  • Langefeld, Carl D., et al. (författare)
  • Transancestral mapping and genetic load in systemic lupus erythematosus
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Nature Communications. - : NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP. - 2041-1723 .- 2041-1723. ; 8
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) is an autoimmune disease with marked gender and ethnic disparities. We report a large transancestral association study of SLE using Immunochip genotype data from 27,574 individuals of European (EA), African (AA) and Hispanic Amerindian (HA) ancestry. We identify 58 distinct non-HLA regions in EA, 9 in AA and 16 in HA (similar to 50% of these regions have multiple independent associations); these include 24 novel SLE regions (P amp;lt; 5 x 10(-8)), refined association signals in established regions, extended associations to additional ancestries, and a disentangled complex HLA multigenic effect. The risk allele count (genetic load) exhibits an accelerating pattern of SLE risk, leading us to posit a cumulative hit hypothesis for autoimmune disease. Comparing results across the three ancestries identifies both ancestry-dependent and ancestry-independent contributions to SLE risk. Our results are consistent with the unique and complex histories of the populations sampled, and collectively help clarify the genetic architecture and ethnic disparities in SLE.
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