| 1. |
- Dahl-Jensen, D., et al.
(författare)
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Eemian interglacial reconstructed from a Greenland folded ice core
- 2013
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Ingår i: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 493:7433, s. 489-494
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Efforts to extract a Greenland ice core with a complete record of the Eemian interglacial (130,000 to 115,000 years ago) have until now been unsuccessful. The response of the Greenland ice sheet to the warmer-than-present climate of the Eemian has thus remained unclear. Here we present the new North Greenland Eemian Ice Drilling ('NEEM') ice core and show only a modest ice-sheet response to the strong warming in the early Eemian. We reconstructed the Eemian record from folded ice using globally homogeneous parameters known from dated Greenland and Antarctic ice-core records. On the basis of water stable isotopes, NEEM surface temperatures after the onset of the Eemian (126,000 years ago) peaked at 8 +/- 4 degrees Celsius above the mean of the past millennium, followed by a gradual cooling that was probably driven by the decreasing summer insolation. Between 128,000 and 122,000 years ago, the thickness of the northwest Greenland ice sheet decreased by 400 +/- 250 metres, reaching surface elevations 122,000 years ago of 130 +/- 300 metres lower than the present. Extensive surface melt occurred at the NEEM site during the Eemian, a phenomenon witnessed when melt layers formed again at NEEM during the exceptional heat of July 2012. With additional warming, surface melt might become more common in the future.
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| 2. |
- Steen-Larsen, H. C., et al.
(författare)
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Continuous monitoring of summer surface water vapor isotopic composition above the Greenland Ice Sheet
- 2013
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Ingår i: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1680-7324. ; 13:9, s. 4815-4828
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present here surface water vapor isotopic measurements conducted from June to August 2010 at the NEEM (North Greenland Eemian Drilling Project) camp, NW Greenland (77.45 degrees N, 51.05 degrees W, 2484 m a.s.l.). Measurements were conducted at 9 different heights from 0.1m to 13.5m above the snow surface using two different types of cavity-enhanced near-infrared absorption spectroscopy analyzers. For each instrument specific protocols were developed for calibration and drift corrections. The inter-comparison of corrected results from different instruments reveals excellent reproducibility, stability, and precision with a standard deviations of similar to 0.23 parts per thousand for delta O-18 and similar to 1.4 parts per thousand for delta D. Diurnal and intraseasonal variations show strong relationships between changes in local surface humidity and water vapor isotopic composition, and with local and synoptic weather conditions. This variability probably results from the interplay between local moisture fluxes, linked with firn-air exchanges, boundary layer dynamics, and large-scale moisture advection. Particularly remarkable are several episodes characterized by high (> 40 parts per thousand) surface water vapor deuterium excess. Air mass back-trajectory calculations from atmospheric analyses and water tagging in the LMDZiso (Laboratory of Meteorology Dynamics Zoom-isotopic) atmospheric model reveal that these events are associated with predominant Arctic air mass origin. The analysis suggests that high deuterium excess levels are a result of strong kinetic fractionation during evaporation at the sea-ice margin.
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| 3. |
- Fischer, Hubertus, et al.
(författare)
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Palaeoclimate constraints on the impact of 2 °C anthropogenic warming and beyond
- 2018
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Ingår i: Nature Geoscience. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1752-0894 .- 1752-0908. ; 11:7, s. 474-485
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Over the past 3.5 million years, there have been several intervals when climate conditions were warmer than during the pre-industrial Holocene. Although past intervals of warming were forced differently than future anthropogenic change, such periods can provide insights into potential future climate impacts and ecosystem feedbacks, especially over centennial-to-millennial timescales that are often not covered by climate model simulations. Our observation-based synthesis of the understanding of past intervals with temperatures within the range of projected future warming suggests that there is a low risk of runaway greenhouse gas feedbacks for global warming of no more than 2 °C. However, substantial regional environmental impacts can occur. A global average warming of 1–2 °C with strong polar amplification has, in the past, been accompanied by significant shifts in climate zones and the spatial distribution of land and ocean ecosystems. Sustained warming at this level has also led to substantial reductions of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, with sea-level increases of at least several metres on millennial timescales. Comparison of palaeo observations with climate model results suggests that, due to the lack of certain feedback processes, model-based climate projections may underestimate long-term warming in response to future radiative forcing by as much as a factor of two, and thus may also underestimate centennial-to-millennial-scale sea-level rise.
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| 4. |
- Divine, D. V., et al.
(författare)
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Modelling the regional climate and isotopic composition of Svalbard precipitation using REMOiso : a comparison with available GNIP and ice core data
- 2011
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Ingår i: Hydrological Processes. - : Wiley. - 0885-6087 .- 1099-1085. ; 25:24, s. 3748-3759
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Simulations of a regional (approx. 50 km resolution) circulation model REMOiso with embedded stable water isotope module covering the period 1958-2001 are compared with the two instrumental climate and four isotope series (d18O) from western Svalbard. We examine the data from ice cores drilled on Svalbard ice caps in 1997 (Lomonosovfonna, 1250 m asl) and 2005 (Holtedahlfonna, 1150 m asl) and the GNIP series from Ny-angstrom lesund and Isfjord Radio. The surface air temperature (SAT) and precipitation data from Longyearbyen and Ny-angstrom lesund are used to assess the skill of the model in reproducing the local climate. The model successfully captures the climate variations on the daily to multidecadal times scales although it tends to systematically underestimate the winter SAT. Analysis suggests that REMOiso performs better at simulating isotope compositions of precipitation in the winter than summer. The simulated and measured Holtedahlfonna d18O series agree reasonably well, whereas no significant correlation has been observed between the modelled and measured Lomonosovfonna ice core isotopic series. It is shown that sporadic nature as well as variability in the amount inherent in precipitation process potentially limits the accuracy of the past SAT reconstruction from the ice core data. This effect in the study area is, however, diminished by the role of other factors controlling d18O in precipitation, most likely sea ice extent, which is directly related with the SAT anomalies.
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| 5. |
- Klein, François, et al.
(författare)
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Assessing the robustness of Antarctic temperature reconstructions over the past 2 millennia using pseudoproxy and data assimilation experiments
- 2019
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Ingår i: Climate of the Past. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1814-9324 .- 1814-9332. ; 15:2, s. 661-684
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Antarctic temperature changes over the past millennia remain more uncertain than in many other continental regions. This has several origins: (1) the number of high-resolution ice cores is small, in particular on the East Antarctic plateau and in some coastal areas in East Antarctica; (2) the short and spatially sparse instrumental records limit the calibration period for reconstructions and the assessment of the methodologies; (3) the link between isotope records from ice cores and local climate is usually complex and dependent on the spatial scales and timescales investigated. Here, we use climate model results, pseudoproxy experiments and data assimilation experiments to assess the potential for reconstructing the Antarctic temperature over the last 2 millennia based on a new database of stable oxygen isotopes in ice cores compiled in the framework of Antarctica2k (Stenni et al.,). The well-known covariance between δ 18 O and temperature is reproduced in the two isotope-enabled models used (ECHAM5/MPI-OM and ECHAM5-wiso), but is generally weak over the different Antarctic regions, limiting the skill of the reconstructions. Furthermore, the strength of the link displays large variations over the past millennium, further affecting the potential skill of temperature reconstructions based on statistical methods which rely on the assumption that the last decades are a good estimate for longer temperature reconstructions. Using a data assimilation technique allows, in theory, for changes in the δ 18 O-temperature link through time and space to be taken into account. Pseudoproxy experiments confirm the benefits of using data assimilation methods instead of statistical methods that provide reconstructions with unrealistic variances in some Antarctic subregions. They also confirm that the relatively weak link between both variables leads to a limited potential for reconstructing temperature based on δ 18 O. However, the reconstruction skill is higher and more uniform among reconstruction methods when the reconstruction target is the Antarctic as a whole rather than smaller Antarctic subregions. This consistency between the methods at the large scale is also observed when reconstructing temperature based on the real δ 18 O regional composites of Stenni et al. (2017). In this case, temperature reconstructions based on data assimilation confirm the long-term cooling over Antarctica during the last millennium, and the later onset of anthropogenic warming compared with the simulations without data assimilation, which is especially visible in West Antarctica. Data assimilation also allows for models and direct observations to be reconciled by reproducing the east-west contrast in the recent temperature trends. This recent warming pattern is likely mostly driven by internal variability given the large spread of individual Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP)/Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) model realizations in simulating it. As in the pseudoproxy framework, the reconstruction methods perform differently at the subregional scale, especially in terms of the variance of the time series produced. While the potential benefits of using a data assimilation method instead of a statistical method have been highlighted in a pseudoproxy framework, the instrumental series are too short to confirm this in a realistic setup.
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| 6. |
- Masson-Delmotte, V., et al.
(författare)
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Sensitivity of interglacial Greenland temperature and δ 18O : Ice core data, orbital and increased CO 2 climate simulations
- 2011
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Ingår i: Climate of the Past. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1814-9324 .- 1814-9332. ; 7:3, s. 1041-1059
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The sensitivity of interglacial Greenland temperature to orbital and CO 2 forcing is investigated using the NorthGRIP ice core data and coupled ocean-atmosphere IPSL-CM4 model simulations. These simulations were conducted in response to different interglacial orbital configurations, and to increased CO 2 concentrations. These different forcings cause very distinct simulated seasonal and latitudinal temperature and water cycle changes, limiting the analogies between the last interglacial and future climate. However, the IPSL-CM4 model shows similar magnitudes of Arctic summer warming and climate feedbacks in response to 2 × CO 2 and orbital forcing of the last interglacial period (126 000 years ago). The IPSL-CM4 model produces a remarkably linear relationship between TOA incoming summer solar radiation and simulated changes in summer and annual mean central Greenland temperature. This contrasts with the stable isotope record from the Greenland ice cores, showing a multi-millennial lagged response to summer insolation. During the early part of interglacials, the observed lags may be explained by ice sheet-ocean feedbacks linked with changes in ice sheet elevation and the impact of meltwater on ocean circulation, as investigated with sensitivity studies. A quantitative comparison between ice core data and climate simulations requires stability of the stable isotope - temperature relationship to be explored. Atmospheric simulations including water stable isotopes have been conducted with the LMDZiso model under different boundary conditions. This set of simulations allows calculation of a temporal Greenland isotope-temperature slope (0.3-0.4% per °C) during warmer-than-present Arctic climates, in response to increased CO 2, increased ocean temperature and orbital forcing. This temporal slope appears half as large as the modern spatial gradient and is consistent with other ice core estimates. It may, however, be model-dependent, as indicated by preliminary comparison with other models. This suggests that further simulations and detailed inter-model comparisons are also likely to be of benefit. Comparisons with Greenland ice core stable isotope data reveals that IPSL-CM4/LMDZiso simulations strongly underestimate the amplitude of the ice core signal during the last interglacial, which could reach +8-10 °C at fixed-elevation. While the model-data mismatch may result from missing positive feedbacks (e.g. vegetation), it could also be explained by a reduced elevation of the central Greenland ice sheet surface by 300-400 m.
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| 7. |
- Quiquet, A., et al.
(författare)
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Sensitivity of a Greenland ice sheet model to atmospheric forcing fields
- 2012
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Ingår i: The Cryosphere. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1994-0424. ; 6:5, s. 999-1018
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Predicting the climate for the future and how it will impact ice sheet evolution requires coupling ice sheet models with climate models. However, before we attempt to develop a realistic coupled setup, we propose, in this study, to first analyse the impact of a model simulated climate on an ice sheet. We undertake this exercise for a set of regional and global climate models. Modelled near surface air temperature and precipitation are provided as upper boundary conditions to the GRISLI (GRenoble Ice Shelf and Land Ice model) hybrid ice sheet model (ISM) in its Greenland configuration. After 20 kyrs of simulation, the resulting ice sheets highlight the differences between the climate models. While modelled ice sheet sizes are generally comparable to the observed one, there are considerable deviations among the ice sheets on regional scales. These deviations can be explained by biases in temperature and precipitation near the coast. This is especially true in the case of global models. But the deviations between the climate models are also due to the differences in the atmospheric general circulation. To account for these differences in the context of coupling ice sheet models with climate models, we conclude that appropriate downscaling methods will be needed. In some cases, systematic corrections of the climatic variables at the interface may be required to obtain realistic results for the Greenland ice sheet (GIS)
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| 8. |
- Sjolte, J., et al.
(författare)
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Modeling the water isotopes in Greenland precipitation 1959-2001 with the meso-scale model REMO-iso
- 2011
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Ingår i: Journal of Geophysical Research. - 0148-0227 .- 2156-2202. ; 116, s. D18105-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Ice core studies have proved the delta(18)O in Greenland precipitation to be correlated to the phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). This subject has also been investigated in modeling studies. However, these studies have either had severe biases in the delta(18)O levels, or have not been designed to be compared directly with observations. In this study we nudge a meso-scale climate model fitted with stable water isotope diagnostics (REMO-iso) to follow the actual weather patterns for the period 1959-2001. We evaluate this simulation using meteorological observations from stations along the Greenland coast, and delta(18)O from several Greenland ice core stacks and Global Network In Precipitation (GNIP) data from Greenland, Iceland and Svalbard. The REMO-iso output explains up to 40% of the interannual delta(18)O variability observed in ice cores, which is comparable to the model performance for precipitation. In terms of reproducing the observed variability the global model, ECHAM4-iso performs on the same level as REMO-iso. However, REMO-iso has smaller biases in delta(18)O and improved representation of the observed spatial delta(18)O-temperature slope compared to ECHAM4-iso. Analysis of the main modes of winter variability of delta(18)O shows a coherent signal in Central and Western Greenland similar to results from ice cores. The NAO explains 20% of the leading delta(18)O pattern. Based on the model output we suggest that methods to reconstruct the NAO from Greenland ice cores employ both delta(18)O and accumulation records.
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| 9. |
- Chen, Deliang, 1961, et al.
(författare)
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Summary of a workshop on extreme weather events in a warming world organized by the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences
- 2020
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Ingår i: Tellus Series B-Chemical and Physical Meteorology. - : Stockholm University Press. - 1600-0889 .- 0280-6509. ; 72:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Climate change is not only about changes in means of climatic variables such as temperature, precipitation and wind, but also their extreme values which are of critical importance to human society and ecosystems. To inspire the Swedish climate research community and to promote assessments of international research on past and future changes in extreme weather events against the global climate change background, the Earth Science Class of the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences organized a workshop entitled 'Extreme weather events in a warming world' in 2019. This article summarizes and synthesizes the key points from the presentations and discussions of the workshop on changes in floods, droughts, heat waves, as well as on tropical cyclones and extratropical storms. In addition to reviewing past achievements in these research fields and identifying research gaps with a focus on Sweden, future challenges and opportunities for the Swedish climate research community are highlighted.
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| 10. |
- Guðlaugsdóttir, H., et al.
(författare)
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The influence of volcanic eruptions on weather regimes over the North Atlantic simulated by ECHAM5/MPI-OM ensemble runs from 800 to 2000 CE
- 2018
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Ingår i: Atmospheric Research. - : Elsevier BV. - 0169-8095. ; 213, s. 211-223
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The volcanic fingerprint on the winter North Atlantic atmospheric circulation and climate is analyzed in six ensemble runs of ECHAM5/MPI-OM covering 800–2000 CE, both for equatorial and Northern Hemisphere (NH) eruptions. Large volcanic eruptions influence climate on both annual and decadal time scales due to dynamic interactions of different climate components in the Earth's system. It is well known that the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) tends to shift towards its positive phase during winter in the first 1–2 years after large tropical volcanic eruptions, causing warming over Europe, but other North Atlantic weather regimes have received less attention. Here we investigate the four dominant weather regimes in the North Atlantic: The negative and positive phase of NAO as well as the Atlantic Ridge, Scandinavian blocking. The volcanic fingerprint is detected as a change in the frequency of occurrence and anomalies in the wind and temperature fields as well as in the sea ice cover. We observe a strong significant increase in the frequency of Atlantic Ridge in the second year after equatorial eruptions that precede the NAO+ detected in year 3–5 as a result of a strong zonal wind anomalies in year 1–2. Evidence for a stronger polar vortex is detected in years 12–14 where NAO+ is detected both as a frequency increase and in the wind and temperature fields. A short-term response is also detected 2–4 years after NH eruptions. The longterm signal after NH eruptions indicate a weak polar vortex around a decade after an eruption. Although the signal after NH eruptions is weaker our results stress the need for further studies. The simulated atmospheric response recorded in ECHAM5 after volcanic eruptions suggest a more dynamic response than previously thought. The methodology used can also be applied to other forcing scenario, for example for future climate projections where the aim is to search for a long-term climate signal.
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