| 1. |
- Einhauser, Sebastian, et al.
(författare)
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Time Trend in SARS-CoV-2 Seropositivity, Surveillance Detection- and Infection Fatality Ratio until Spring 2021 in the Tirschenreuth County-Results from a Population-Based Longitudinal Study in Germany
- 2022
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Ingår i: Viruses. - : MDPI AG. - 1999-4915. ; 14:6
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Herein, we provide results from a prospective population-based longitudinal follow-up (FU) SARS-CoV-2 serosurveillance study in Tirschenreuth, the county which was hit hardest in Germany in spring 2020 and early 2021. Of 4203 individuals aged 14 years or older enrolled at baseline (BL, June 2020), 3546 participated at FU1 (November 2020) and 3391 at FU2 (April 2021). Key metrics comprising standardized seroprevalence, surveillance detection ratio (SDR), infection fatality ratio (IFR) and success of the vaccination campaign were derived using the Roche N- and S-Elecsys anti-SARS-CoV-2 test together with a self-administered questionnaire. N-seropositivity at BL was 9.2% (1st wave). While we observed a low new seropositivity between BL and FU1 (0.9%), the combined 2nd and 3rd wave accounted for 6.1% new N-seropositives between FU1 and FU2 (ever seropositives at FU2: 15.4%). The SDR decreased from 5.4 (BL) to 1.1 (FU2) highlighting the success of massively increased testing in the population. The IFR based on a combination of serology and registration data resulted in 3.3% between November 2020 and April 2021 compared to 2.3% until June 2020. Although IFRs were consistently higher at FU2 compared to BL across age-groups, highest among individuals aged 70+ (18.3% versus 10.7%, respectively), observed differences were within statistical uncertainty bounds. While municipalities with senior care homes showed a higher IFR at BL (3.0% with senior care home vs. 0.7% w/o), this effect diminished at FU2 (3.4% vs. 2.9%). In April 2021 (FU2), vaccination rate in the elderly was high (>77.4%, age-group 80+).
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| 2. |
- Salmon, Maelle, et al.
(författare)
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Bayesian outbreak detection in the presence of reporting delays
- 2015
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Ingår i: Biometrical Journal. - : Wiley. - 0323-3847 .- 1521-4036. ; 57:6, s. 1051-1067
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- One use of infectious disease surveillance systems is the statistical aberration detection performed on time series of counts resulting from the aggregation of individual case reports. However, inherent reporting delays in such surveillance systems make the considered time series incomplete, which can be an impediment to the timely detection and thus to the containment of emerging outbreaks. In this work, we synthesize the outbreak detection algorithms of Noufaily etal.(2013) and Manitz and Hohle(2013) while additionally addressing right truncation caused by reporting delays. We do so by considering the resulting time series as an incomplete two-way contingency table which we model using negative binomial regression. Our approach is defined in a Bayesian setting allowing a direct inclusion of all sources of uncertainty in the derivation of whether an observed case count is to be considered an aberration. The proposed algorithm is evaluated both on simulated data and on the time series of Salmonella Newport cases in Germany in 2011. Altogether, our method aims at allowing timely aberration detection in the presence of reporting delays and hence underlines the need for statistical modeling to address complications of reporting systems. An implementation of the proposed method is made available in the R package surveillance as the function bodaDelay.
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| 3. |
- Aad, G., et al.
(författare)
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- 2013
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
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| 4. |
- Berndt, Sonja I., et al.
(författare)
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Genome-wide meta-analysis identifies 11 new loci for anthropometric traits and provides insights into genetic architecture
- 2013
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Ingår i: Nature Genetics. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1061-4036 .- 1546-1718. ; 45:5, s. 501-U69
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Approaches exploiting trait distribution extremes may be used to identify loci associated with common traits, but it is unknown whether these loci are generalizable to the broader population. In a genome-wide search for loci associated with the upper versus the lower 5th percentiles of body mass index, height and waist-to-hip ratio, as well as clinical classes of obesity, including up to 263,407 individuals of European ancestry, we identified 4 new loci (IGFBP4, H6PD, RSRC1 and PPP2R2A) influencing height detected in the distribution tails and 7 new loci (HNF4G, RPTOR, GNAT2, MRPS33P4, ADCY9, HS6ST3 and ZZZ3) for clinical classes of obesity. Further, we find a large overlap in genetic structure and the distribution of variants between traits based on extremes and the general population and little etiological heterogeneity between obesity subgroups.
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