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Sökning: WFRF:(Steffen Konrad)

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1.
  • Blunden, Jessica, et al. (författare)
  • State of the Climate in 2012
  • 2013
  • Ingår i: Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society - (BAMS). - 0003-0007 .- 1520-0477. ; 94:8, s. S1-S258
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • For the first time in serveral years, the El Nino-Southern Oscillation did not dominate regional climate conditions around the globe. A weak La Ni a dissipated to ENSOneutral conditions by spring, and while El Nino appeared to be emerging during summer, this phase never fully developed as sea surface temperatures in the eastern conditions. Nevertheless, other large-scale climate patterns and extreme weather events impacted various regions during the year. A negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation from mid-January to early February contributed to frigid conditions in parts of northern Africa, eastern Europe, and western Asia. A lack of rain during the 2012 wet season led to the worst drought in at least the past three decades for northeastern Brazil. Central North America also experienced one of its most severe droughts on record. The Caribbean observed a very wet dry season and it was the Sahel's wettest rainy season in 50 years. Overall, the 2012 average temperature across global land and ocean surfaces ranked among the 10 warmest years on record. The global land surface temperature alone was also among the 10 warmest on record. In the upper atmosphere, the average stratospheric temperature was record or near-record cold, depending on the dataset. After a 30-year warming trend from 1970 to 1999 for global sea surface temperatures, the period 2000-12 had little further trend. This may be linked to the prevalence of La Ni a-like conditions during the 21st century. Heat content in the upper 700 m of the ocean remained near record high levels in 2012. Net increases from 2011 to 2012 were observed at 700-m to 2000-m depth and even in the abyssal ocean below. Following sharp decreases in to the effects of La Ni a, sea levels rebounded to reach records highs in 2012. The increased hydrological cycle seen in recent years continued, with more evaporation in drier locations and more precipitation in rainy areas. In a pattern that has held since 2004, salty areas of the ocean surfaces and subsurfaces were anomalously salty on average, while fresher areas were anomalously fresh. Global tropical cyclone activity during 2012 was near average, with a total of 84 storms compared with the 1981-2010 average of 89. Similar to 2010 and 2011, the North Atlantic was the only hurricane basin that experienced above-normal activity. In this basin, Sandy brought devastation to Cuba and parts of the eastern North American seaboard. All other basins experienced either near-or below-normal tropical cyclone activity. Only three tropical cyclones reached Category 5 intensity-all in Bopha became the only storm in the historical record to produce winds greater than 130 kt south of 7 N. It was also the costliest storm to affect the Philippines and killed more than 1000 residents. Minimum Arctic sea ice extent in September and Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent in June both reached new record lows. June snow cover extent is now declining at a faster rate (-17.6% per decade) than September sea ice extent (-13.0% per decade). Permafrost temperatures reached record high values in northernmost Alaska. A new melt extent record occurred on 11-12 July on the Greenland ice sheet; 97% of the ice sheet showed some form of melt, four times greater than the average melt for this time of year. The climate in Antarctica was relatively stable overall. The largest maximum sea ice extent since records begain in 1978 was observed in September 2012. In the stratosphere, warm air led to the second smallest ozone hole in the past two decades. Even so, the springtime ozone layer above Antarctica likely will not return to its early 1980s state until about 2060. Following a slight decline associated with the global 2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production reached a record 9.5 +/- 0.5 Pg C in 2011 and a new record of 9.7 +/- 0.5 Pg C is estimated for 2012. Atmospheric CO2 concentrations increased by 2.1 ppm in 2012, to 392.6 ppm. In spring 2012, 2 concentration exceeded 400 ppm at 7 of the 13 Arctic observation sites. Globally, other greenhouse gases including methane and nitrous oxide also continued to rise in concentration and the combined effect now represents a 32% increase in radiative forcing over a 1990 baseline. Concentrations of most ozone depleting substances continued to fall.
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2.
  • Hansen, James, et al. (författare)
  • Assessing Dangerous Climate Change : Required Reduction of Carbon Emissions to Protect Young People, Future Generations and Nature
  • 2013
  • Ingår i: PLOS ONE. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1932-6203. ; 8:12, s. e81648-
  • Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
    • We assess climate impacts of global warming using ongoing observations and paleoclimate data. We use Earth's measured energy imbalance, paleoclimate data, and simple representations of the global carbon cycle and temperature to define emission reductions needed to stabilize climate and avoid potentially disastrous impacts on today's young people, future generations, and nature. A cumulative industrial-era limit of similar to 500 GtC fossil fuel emissions and 100 GtC storage in the biosphere and soil would keep climate close to the Holocene range to which humanity and other species are adapted. Cumulative emissions of similar to 1000 GtC, sometimes associated with 2 degrees C global warming, would spur slow feedbacks and eventual warming of 3-4 degrees C with disastrous consequences. Rapid emissions reduction is required to restore Earth's energy balance and avoid ocean heat uptake that would practically guarantee irreversible effects. Continuation of high fossil fuel emissions, given current knowledge of the consequences, would be an act of extraordinary witting intergenerational injustice. Responsible policymaking requires a rising price on carbon emissions that would preclude emissions from most remaining coal and unconventional fossil fuels and phase down emissions from conventional fossil fuels.
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3.
  • Oehri, Jacqueline, et al. (författare)
  • Vegetation type is an important predictor of the arctic summer land surface energy budget
  • 2022
  • Ingår i: Nature Communications. - : Springer Nature. - 2041-1723. ; 13
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Despite the importance of high-latitude surface energy budgets (SEBs) for land-climate interactions in the rapidly changing Arctic, uncertainties in their prediction persist. Here, we harmonize SEB observations across a network of vegetated and glaciated sites at circumpolar scale (1994–2021). Our variance-partitioning analysis identifies vegetation type as an important predictor for SEB-components during Arctic summer (June-August), compared to other SEB-drivers including climate, latitude and permafrost characteristics. Differences among vegetation types can be of similar magnitude as between vegetation and glacier surfaces and are especially high for summer sensible and latent heat fluxes. The timing of SEB-flux summer-regimes (when daily mean values exceed 0 Wm−2) relative to snow-free and -onset dates varies substantially depending on vegetation type, implying vegetation controls on snow-cover and SEB-flux seasonality. Our results indicate complex shifts in surface energy fluxes with land-cover transitions and a lengthening summer season, and highlight the potential for improving future Earth system models via a refined representation of Arctic vegetation types.
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4.
  • van As, Dirk, et al. (författare)
  • Katabatic winds and piteraq storms : observations from the Greenland ice sheet
  • 2014
  • Ingår i: Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland Bulletin. - 1811-4598 .- 1604-8156. ; 31, s. 83-86
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • In 2007 the Programme for Monitoring the Greenland Ice Sheet (PROMICE) was initiated to observe and gain insight into the mass budget of Greenland ice masses. By means of in situ observations and remote sensing, PROMICE assesses how much mass is gained as snow accumulation on the surface versus how much is lost by iceberg calving and surface ablation (Ahlstrøm et al. 2008). A key element of PROMICE is a network of automatic weather stations (AWSs) designed to quantify components of the surface mass balance, including the energy exchanges contributing to surface ablation (Van As et al. 2013).The use of these AWS observations is not limited to studies of ice-sheet mass balance. PROMICE contributes to CryoNet (www.globalcryospherewatch.org/cryonet), the core network of surface measurement sites of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Global Cryosphere Watch. By real-time delivery through WMO, PROMICE observations contribute to improve both operational forecasting and climate analysis in the data-sparse Arctic. The Greenlandic population, highly dependent on accurate forecasting of weather conditions, benefits directly from these real-time observations. For instance, extreme surface wind speeds are a high-risk element in Greenland. The third-highest wind speed observed at the surface of the Earth (93 m/s or 333 km/h), was recorded in a 8–9 March 1972 storm at Thule in North-West Greenland (Stansfield 1972).In this paper, we discuss the extent to which the Greenland ice sheet generates its own near-surface wind field. We use PROMICE data to gain insight into the interaction between air temperature, radiation and gravity-driven katabatic winds. We focus on a particularly powerful spring storm in 2013 that contributed to a fatality on an ice-sheet ski traverse attempt (Linden 2013).
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