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Träfflista för sökning "WFRF:(Stenseth Nils Chr.) "

Sökning: WFRF:(Stenseth Nils Chr.)

  • Resultat 1-10 av 18
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  • Stenseth, N. C., et al. (författare)
  • Attuning to a changing ocean
  • 2020
  • Ingår i: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. - 0027-8424 .- 1091-6490. ; 117:34, s. 20363-20371
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The ocean is a lifeline for human existence, but current practices risk severely undermining ocean sustainability. Present and future social-ecological challenges necessitate the maintenance and development of knowledge and action by stimulating collaboration among scientists and between science, policy, and practice. Here we explore not only how such collaborations have developed in the Nordic countries and adjacent seas but also how knowledge from these regions contributes to an understanding of how to obtain a sustainable ocean. Our collective experience may be summarized in three points: 1) In the absence of long-term observations, decision-making is subject to high risk arising from natural variability; 2) in the absence of established scientific organizations, advice to stakeholders often relies on a few advisors, making them prone to biased perceptions; and 3) in the absence of trust between policy makers and the science community, attuning to a changing ocean will be subject to arbitrary decision-making with unforeseen and negative ramifications. Underpinning these observations, we show that collaboration across scientific disciplines and stakeholders and between nations is a necessary condition for appropriate actions.
  • Barth, Julia M.I., et al. (författare)
  • Genome architecture enables local adaptation of Atlantic cod despite high connectivity
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Molecular Ecology. - 0962-1083 .- 1365-294X. ; 26:17
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Adaptation to local conditions is a fundamental process in evolution; however, mechanisms maintaining local adaptation despite high gene flow are still poorly understood. Marine ecosystems provide a wide array of diverse habitats that frequently promote ecological adaptation even in species characterized by strong levels of gene flow. As one example, populations of the marine fish Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) are highly connected due to immense dispersal capabilities but nevertheless show local adaptation in several key traits. By combining population genomic analyses based on 12K single nucleotide polymorphisms with larval dispersal patterns inferred using a biophysical ocean model, we show that Atlantic cod individuals residing in sheltered estuarine habitats of Scandinavian fjords mainly belong to offshore oceanic populations with considerable connectivity between these diverse ecosystems. Nevertheless, we also find evidence for discrete fjord populations that are genetically differentiated from offshore populations, indicative of local adaptation, the degree of which appears to be influenced by connectivity. Analyses of the genomic architecture reveal a significant overrepresentation of a large ~5 Mb chromosomal rearrangement in fjord cod, previously proposed to comprise genes critical for the survival at low salinities. This suggests that despite considerable connectivity with offshore populations, local adaptation to fjord environments may be enabled by suppression of recombination in the rearranged region. Our study provides new insights into the potential of local adaptation in high gene flow species within fine geographical scales and highlights the importance of genome architecture in analyses of ecological adaptation.
  • Björklund, Mats, et al. (författare)
  • Quantitative Trait Evolution and Environmental Change
  • 2009
  • Ingår i: PloS one. - 1932-6203. ; 4:2, s. e4521-
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background: Given the recent changes in climate, there is an urgent need to understand the evolutionary ability of populations to respond to these changes. Methodology/Principal Findings: We performed individual-based simulations with different shapes of the fitness curve, different heritabilities, different levels of density compensation, and different autocorrelation of environmental noise imposed on an environmental trend to study the ability of a population to adapt to changing conditions. The main finding is that when there is a positive autocorrelation of environmental noise, the outcome of the evolutionary process is much more unpredictable compared to when the noise has no autocorrelation. In addition, we found that strong selection resulted in a higher load, and more extinctions, and that this was most pronounced when heritability was low. The level of density-compensation was important in determining the variance in load when there was strong selection, and when genetic variance was lower when the level of density-compensation was low. Conclusions: The strong effect of the details of the environmental fluctuations makes predictions concerning the evolutionary future of populations very hard to make. In addition, to be able to make good predictions we need information on heritability, fitness functions and levels of density compensation. The results strongly suggest that patterns of environmental noise must be incorporated in future models of environmental change, such as global warming.
  • Blenckner, Thorsten, et al. (författare)
  • Climate and fishing steer ecosystem regeneration to uncertain economic futures
  • 2015
  • Ingår i: Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Biological Sciences. - : Royal Society, The. - 0962-8452 .- 1471-2954. ; 282:1803
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Overfishing of large predatory fish populations has resulted in lasting restructurings of entire marine food webs worldwide, with serious socioeconomic consequences. Fortunately, some degraded ecosystems show signs of recovery. A key challenge for ecosystem management is to anticipate the degree to which recovery is possible. By applying a statistical food-web model, using the Baltic Sea as a case study, we show that under current temperature and salinity conditions, complete recovery of this heavily altered ecosystem will be impossible. Instead, the ecosystem regenerates towards a new ecological baseline. This new baseline is characterized by lower and more variable biomass of cod, the commercially most important fish stock in the Baltic Sea, even under very low exploitation pressure. Furthermore, a socio-economic assessment shows that this signal is amplified at the level of societal costs, owing to increased uncertainty in biomass and reduced consumer surplus. Specifically, the combined economic losses amount to approximately 120 million E per year, which equals half of today's maximum economic yield for the Baltic cod fishery. Our analyses suggest that shifts in ecological and economic baselines can lead to higher economic uncertainty and costs for exploited ecosystems, in particular, under climate change.
  • Jonzén, Niclas, et al. (författare)
  • Bird migration and climate - Introduction
  • 2007
  • Ingår i: Climate Research. - : Inter-Research. - 1616-1572. ; 35:1-2, s. 1-3
  • Tidskriftsartikel (övrigt vetenskapligt)
  • Jonzén, Niclas, et al. (författare)
  • Rapid advance of spring arrival dates in long-distance migratory birds
  • 2006
  • Ingår i: Science. - : American Association for the Advancement of Science. - 1095-9203. ; 312:5782, s. 1959-1961
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Several bird species have advanced the timing of their spring migration in response to recent climate change. European short-distance migrants, wintering in temperate areas, have been assumed to be more affected by change in the European climate than long-distance migrants wintering in the tropics. However, we show that tong-distance migrants have advanced their spring arrival in Scandinavia more than short-distance migrants. By analyzing a long-term data set from southern Italy, we show that long-distance migrants also pass through the Mediterranean region earlier. We argue that this may reflect a climate-driven evolutionary change in the timing of spring migration.
  • Knudsen, Endre, et al. (författare)
  • Challenging claims in the study of migratory birds and climate change.
  • 2011
  • Ingår i: Biological Reviews. - : John Wiley and Sons. - 1469-185X. ; 86, s. 928-946
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Recent shifts in phenology in response to climate change are well established but often poorly understood. Many animals integrate climate change across a spatially and temporally dispersed annual life cycle, and effects are modulated by ecological interactions, evolutionary change and endogenous control mechanisms. Here we assess and discuss key statements emerging from the rapidly developing study of changing spring phenology in migratory birds. These well-studied organisms have been instrumental for understanding climate-change effects, but research is developing rapidly and there is a need to attack the big issues rather than risking affirmative science. Although we agree poorly on the support for most claims, agreement regarding the knowledge basis enables consensus regarding broad patterns and likely causes. Empirical data needed for disentangling mechanisms are still scarce, and consequences at a population level and on community composition remain unclear. With increasing knowledge, the overall support ('consensus view') for a claim increased and between-researcher variability in support ('expert opinions') decreased, indicating the importance of assessing and communicating the knowledge basis. A proper integration across biological disciplines seems essential for the field's transition from affirming patterns to understanding mechanisms and making robust predictions regarding future consequences of shifting phenologies.
  • Knudsen, Endre, et al. (författare)
  • Characterizing bird migration phenology using data from standardized monitoring at bird observatories
  • 2007
  • Ingår i: Climate Research. - : Inter-Research. - 1616-1572. ; 35:1-2, s. 59-77
  • Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Long-term data from standardized monitoring programmes at bird observatories are becoming increasingly available. These data are frequently used for detecting changes in the timing of bird migration that may relate to recent climate change. We present an overview of problematic issues in the analysis of these data, and review approaches to and methods for characterizing bird migration phenology and its change over time. Methods are illustrated and briefly compared using autumn data on garden warbler Sylvia borin from a standardized mist-netting programme at Lista bird observatory, southern Norway. Bird migration phenology is usually characterized rather coarsely using a small number of sample statistics such as mean, median and selected quantiles. We present 2 alternative approaches. Smoothing methods describe the within-season pattern in the data at an arbitrary level of detail, while fitting a parametric seasonal distribution curve offers a coarse description of migration phenology relatively robust to sampling effects. Various methods for analyzing linear trends in the timing of bird migration are reviewed and discussed. Exploratory studies using long-term data gathered at bird observatories can yield more detailed insight into the phenomenon of bird migration and how phenologies relate to climate. Methodological advances are needed, particularly in order to better characterize the shape of phenological distributions and separate between sampling effects and 'true' phenology.
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