| 1. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 2. |
- Sumaila, U. Rashid, et al.
(författare)
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WTO must ban harmful fisheries subsidies
- 2021
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Ingår i: Science. - : American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). - 0036-8075 .- 1095-9203. ; 374:6567, s. 544-544
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Tidskriftsartikel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)
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| 3. |
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| 4. |
- Field, Christopher B., et al.
(författare)
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Summary for Policymakers
- 2014
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Ingår i: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and SectoralAspects.. - 9781107415379 ; , s. 1-32
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Bokkapitel (refereegranskat)
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| 5. |
- de la Barre, Suzanne, et al.
(författare)
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Tourism and Arctic Observation Systems : exploring the relationships
- 2016
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Ingår i: Polar Research. - Tromsö : Co-Action Publishing. - 0800-0395 .- 1751-8369. ; 35
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Arctic is affected by global environmental change and also by diverseinterests from many economic sectors and industries. Over the last decade,various actors have attempted to explore the options for setting up integratedand comprehensive trans-boundary systems for monitoring and observing theseimpacts. These Arctic Observation Systems (AOS) contribute to the planning,implementation, monitoring and evaluation of environmental change andresponsible social and economic development in the Arctic. The aim of thisarticle is to identify the two-way relationship between AOS and tourism. On theone hand, tourism activities account for diverse changes across a broad spectrumof impact fields.Onthe other hand, due to its multiple and diverse agents and farreachingactivities, tourism is also well-positioned to collect observational dataand participate as an actor in monitoring activities. To accomplish our goals, weprovide an inventory of tourism-embedded issues and concerns of interest toAOS from a range of destinations in the circumpolar Arctic region, includingAlaska, Arctic Canada, Iceland, Svalbard, the mainland European Arctic andRussia. The article also draws comparisons with the situation in Antarctica. Onthe basis of a collective analysis provided by members of the International PolarTourism Research Network from across the polar regions, we conclude that thepotential role for tourism in the development and implementation of AOS issignificant and has been overlooked.
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| 6. |
- Hagström, Emil, et al.
(författare)
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Psychosocial stress and major cardiovascular events in patients with stable coronary heart disease
- 2018
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Ingår i: Journal of Internal Medicine. - : Wiley. - 0954-6820 .- 1365-2796. ; 283:1, s. 83-92
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- OBJECTIVES: Assess the risk of ischaemic events associated with psychosocial stress in patients with stable coronary heart disease (CHD).METHODS: Psychosocial stress was assessed by a questionnaire in 14 577 patients (median age 65.0, IQR 59, 71; 81.6% males) with stable CHD on optimal secondary preventive therapy in the prospective randomized STABILITY clinical trial. Adjusted Cox regression models were used to assess associations between individual stressors, baseline cardiovascular risk factors and outcomes.RESULTS: After 3.7 years of follow-up, depressive symptoms, loss of interest and financial stress were associated with increased risk (hazard ratio, 95% confidence interval) of CV death (1.21, 1.09-1.34; 1.15, 1.05-1.27; and 1.19, 1.08-1.30, respectively) and the primary composite end-point of CV death, nonfatal MI or nonfatal stroke (1.21, 1.13-1.30; 1.19, 1.11-1.27; and 1.17, 1.10-1.24, respectively). Living alone was related to higher risk of CV death (1.68, 1.38-2.05) and the primary composite end-point (1.28, 1.11-1.48), whereas being married as compared with being widowed, was associated with lower risk of CV death (0.64, 0.49-0.82) and the primary composite end-point (0.81, 0.67-0.97).CONCLUSIONS: Psychosocial stress, such as depressive symptoms, loss of interest, living alone and financial stress, were associated with increased CV mortality in patients with stable CHD despite optimal medical secondary prevention treatment. Secondary prevention of CHD should therefore focus also on psychosocial issues both in clinical management and in future clinical trials.
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| 7. |
- Mohamed, Awaz, et al.
(författare)
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Securing Nature's Contributions to People requires at least 20%-25% (semi-)natural habitat in human-modified landscapes
- 2024
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Ingår i: One Earth. - 2590-3330 .- 2590-3322. ; 7:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The cascading effects of biodiversity decline on human well-being present a pressing challenge for sustainable development. Conservation efforts often prioritize safeguarding specific species, habitats, or intact ecosystems but overlook biodiversity's fundamental role in providing Nature's Contributions to People (NCP) in human -modified landscapes. Here, we systematically review 154 peer -reviewed studies to estimate the minimum levels of (semi -)natural habitat quantity, quality, and spatial configuration needed in human -modified landscapes to secure functional integrity essential for sustaining NCP provision. We find that the provision of multiple NCP is threatened when (semi -)natural habitat in the landscape falls below an area of 20%- 25% for each km2. Five NCP almost completely disappear below a level of 10% habitat. The exact quantity, quality, and spatial configuration of habitat required depends on local context and specific NCP. Today, about two-thirds of human -modified lands have insufficient (semi -)natural habitat, requiring action for NCP regeneration. Our findings serve as a generic guideline to target conservation actions outside natural areas.
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| 8. |
- Nohlberg, Marcus, et al.
(författare)
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Ask and you shall know : Using interviews and the SBC model for social-engineering penetration testing
- 2008
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Ingår i: IMETI - Int. Multi-Conf. Eng. Technol. Innov., Proc.. - Orlando : International Institute of Informatics and Systemics. - 1934272434 - 9781934272435 ; , s. 121-128
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper presents the result of a case study where the SBC model was used as a foundation to perform semi-structured interviews to test the security in a medical establishment. The answers were analyzed and presented in an uncomplicated graph. The purpose was to study the feasibility of letting the users participate, instead of exploiting their weaknesses. It was found that the approach of interviewing the subjects rendered interesting, and relevant, results, making it an approach that should be studied further due to its apparent gains: less ethically troublesome penetration testing, increased awareness, improved coverage and novel information as added bonuses.
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| 9. |
- Caretta, Martina Angela, et al.
(författare)
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Water
- 2022
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Ingår i: Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability : Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change - Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
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Bokkapitel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)
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