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- Lilja, Hans, et al.
(författare)
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Long-term prediction of prostate cancer up to 25 years before diagnosis of prostate cancer using prostate kallikreins measured at age 44 to 50 years.
- 2007
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Ingår i: Journal of Clinical Oncology. - 1527-7755. ; 25:4, s. 431-436
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Purpose We examined whether prostate-specific antigen (PSA) forms and human kallikrein 2 (hK2) measured at age 44 to 50 years predict long-term risk of incident prostate cancer. Methods From 1974 to 1986, 21,277 men age <= 50 years in Malmo, Sweden, enrolled onto a cardiovascular study (74% participation). The rate of PSA screening in this population is low. According to the Swedish Cancer Registry, 498 were later diagnosed with prostate cancer. We measured hK2, free PSA, and total PSA (tPSA) in archived blood plasma from 462 participants later diagnosed with prostate cancer and from 1,222 matched controls. Conditional logistic regression was used to test for association of prostate cancer with hK2 and PSA forms measured at baseline. Results Median delay between venipuncture and prostate cancer diagnosis was 18 years. hK2 and all PSA forms were strongly associated with prostate cancer (all P < .0005). None of the 90 anthropometric, lifestyle, biochemical, and medical history variables measured at baseline was importantly predictive. A tPSA increase of 1 ng/mL was associated with an increase in odds of cancer of 3.69 (95% CI, 2.99 to 4.56); addition of other PSA forms or hK2 did not add to the predictive value of tPSA. tPSA remained predictive for men diagnosed >= 20 years after venipuncture, and the predictive value remained unchanged in an analysis restricted to palpable disease. Conclusion A single PSA test at age 44 to 50 years predicts subsequent clinically diagnosed prostate cancer. This raises the possibility of risk stratification for prostate cancer screening programs.
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| 2. |
- Ulmert, David, et al.
(författare)
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Long-term prediction of prostate cancer: Prostate-specific antigen (PSA) velocity is predictive but does not improve the predictive accuracy of a single PSA measurement 15 years or more before cancer diagnosis in a large, representative, unscreened population
- 2008
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Ingår i: Journal of Clinical Oncology. - 1527-7755. ; 26:6, s. 835-841
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Purpose We tested whether total prostate-specific antigen velocity (tPSAv) improves accuracy of a model using PSA level to predict long-term risk of prostate cancer diagnosis. Methods During 1974 to 1986 in a preventive medicine study in Sweden, 5,722 men aged <= 50 gave two blood samples about 6 years apart. We measured free (fPSA) and total PSA (tPSA) in archived plasma samples from 4,907 participants. Prostate cancer was subsequently diagnosed in 443 (9%) men. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to evaluate tPSA and tPSAv as predictors of prostate cancer. Predictive accuracy was assessed by the concordance index. Results The median time from second blood draw to cancer diagnosis was 16 years; median follow-up for men without prostate cancer was 21 years. In univariate models, tPSA level at second assessment and tPSAv between first and second assessments were associated with prostate cancer (both P < .001). tPSAv was highly correlated with tPSA level (r = 0.93). Twenty-year probabilities of cancer for men at 50th, 90th, and 95th percentile of tPSA and tPSAv were 10.6%, 17.1%, and 21.2% for tPSA, and 9.1%, 11.8%, and 14.1% for tPSAv, respectively. The concordance index for tPSA level was 0.771. Adding tPSAv, fPSA, % fPSA or velocities of fPSA and % fPSA did not importantly increase accuracy of tPSA to predict prostate cancer. Results were unchanged if the analysis was restricted to patients with advanced cancer at diagnosis. Conclusion Although PSA velocity is significantly increased in men with prostate cancer up to two decades before diagnosis, it does not aid long-term prediction of prostate cancer.
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| 3. |
- Ulmert, David, et al.
(författare)
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Prostate-specific antigen at or before age 50 as a predictor of advanced prostate cancer diagnosed up to 25 years later: A case-control study
- 2008
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Ingår i: BMC Medicine. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1741-7015. ; 6
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Based on a large, representative unscreened cohort from Malmo, Sweden, we have recently reported that a single prostate-specific antigen (PSA) measurement at or before age 50 is a strong predictor of prostate cancer occurring up to 25 years subsequently. We aimed to determine whether this association holds for advanced cancers, defined as clinical stage T3 or higher, or skeletal metastasis at the time of the cancer diagnosis. Methods: In 1974-1986 blood samples were obtained from a cohort of 21,277 men aged up to 50. Through 1999, 498 men were diagnosed with prostate cancer, and of these 161 had locally advanced or metastatic prostate cancers. Three controls, matched for age and date of venipuncture, were selected for each case. Conditional logistic regression was used to test associations between molecular markers and advanced cancer. Results: Median time from venipuncture to diagnosis was 17 years. Levels of all PSA forms and hK2 were associated with case status. Total PSA was a strong and statistically significant predictor of subsequent advanced cancer ( area under the curve 0.791; p < 0.0005). Two-thirds of the advanced cancer cases occurred in men with the top 20% of PSA levels (0.9 ng/ml or higher). Conclusion: A single PSA test taken at or before age 50 is a very strong predictor of advanced prostate cancer diagnosed up to 25 years later. This suggests the possibility of using an early PSA test to risk-stratify patients so that men at highest risk are the focus of the most intensive screening efforts.
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| 4. |
- Vickers, Andrew J., et al.
(författare)
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The predictive value of prostate cancer biomarkers depends on age and time to diagnosis: Towards a biologically-based screening strategy
- 2007
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Ingår i: International Journal of Cancer. - : Wiley. - 0020-7136 .- 1097-0215. ; 121:10, s. 2212-2217
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Both benign and malignant prostate diseases elevate total prostate-specific antigen (tPSA), and the incidence of benign disease increases markedly with age. There is evidence, however, that free-to-total PSA ratio (%fPSA) and human kallikrein 2 (hK2) more closely reflect the malignant process. We tested the hypothesis that tPSA levels are more strongly predictive of cancer in younger when compared to older men, whereas %fPSA and hK2 are more strongly predictive in men tested closer to diagnosis. The study included 13,676 men age >= 44 in Sweden, where PSA screening was uncommon during the study period. fPSA, tPSA and hK2 were measured in archived plasma collected during 1974-1986 in 501 men subsequently diagnosed with prostate cancer up to 1999 and in 1,292 matched controls. The predictive value of tPSA was lower in older men (p = 0.003) but was not strongly affected by time to diagnosis (p = 0.3); the predictive value of hK2 was higher closer to diagnosis (p < 0.0005) but was not modified by age (p = 0.7). A model including tPSA, fPSA and hK2 was superior (p = 0.02) to tPSA alone in older (AUC 0.819 vs. 0.794), but not in younger men (0.758 vs. 0.759). Total PSA can be used as a single marker at early middle age to predict long-term risk of prostate cancer and thus to determine intensity of subsequent screening. In contrast, %fPSA and hK2 add important predictive value in older men and much closer to diagnosis. Strategies for prostate cancer screening should be based on thorough understanding of the interaction of kallikreinrelated biomarkers with prostate pathobiology.
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