| 1. |
- Jaramillo, Fernando, 1977-, et al.
(author)
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Fewer Basins Will Follow Their Budyko Curves Under Global Warming and Fossil-Fueled Development
- 2022
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In: Water resources research. - 0043-1397 .- 1944-7973. ; 58:8
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The Budyko framework consists of a curvilinear relationship between the evaporative ratio (i.e., actual evaporation over precipitation) and the aridity index (i.e., potential evaporation over precipitation) and defines evaporation's water and energy limits. A basin's movement within the Budyko space illustrates its hydroclimatic change and helps identify the main drivers of change. On the one hand, long-term aridity changes drive evaporative ratio changes, moving basins along their Budyko curves. On the other hand, historical human development can cause river basins to deviate from their curves. The question is if basins will deviate or follow their Budyko curves under the future effects of global warming and related human developments. To answer this, we quantify the movement in the Budyko space of 405 river basins from 1901-1950 to 2051-2100 based on the outputs of seven models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project - Phase 6 (CMIP6). We account for the implications of using different potential evaporation models and study low- and high-emissions scenarios. We find considerable differences of movement in Budyko space regarding direction and intensity when using the two estimates of potential evaporation. However, regardless of the potential evaporation estimate and the scenario used, most river basins will not follow their reference Budyko curves (>72%). Furthermore, the number of basins not following their curves increases under high greenhouse gas emissions and fossil-fueled development SP585 and across dry and wet basin groups. We elaborate on the possible explanations for a large number of basins not following their Budyko curves.
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| 2. |
- Xi, Qiaojuan, et al.
(author)
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中国主要流域灰-绿-蓝蓄水能力时空演变 : [Spatio-temporal variation of gray-green-blue storage capacity in nine major basins of China]
- 2021
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In: Chinese Science Bulletin-Chinese. - 0023-074X .- 2095-9419. ; 66:34, s. 4437-4448
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Most of China's territory is influenced by the East Asia monsoon, and thus, the spatio-temporal distribution of surface water resources in China is extremely uneven, causing many water-related issues, e.g.. water scarcity and flooding. As the basis and essential condition of economic and social development, water-related infrastructures provide the material basis and guarantee for regulating and storing surface water resources and solving multi-dimensional water problems. The infrastructures that play an important role in surface water resource regulation and storage mainly include three types: Gray (such as dams), green (such as forests), and blue infrastructures (such as lakes). Gray infrastructures can reduce the flood peak and increase water supply during dry seasons by regulating and storing water so that the seasonal and inter-annual fluctuation of runoff is reduced, which plays an important role in water storage, water supply, flood control, and disaster mitigation. However, excessive gray infrastructures would have adverse effects on the social economy and environmental ecology. Unlike gray infrastructures, green and blue infrastructures can not only benefit water resource management but also have ecological functions, such as improving water quality and enhancing ecosystem services. Thus. it is significant to couple gray, green, and blue infrastructures to regulate the spatio-temporal distribution of water resources. However, research on the spatial distribution and temporal variation of water storage capacity is still lacking, which hinders the coordinated regulation and comprehensive management of surface water resources. Therefore, in the present study, the spatio-temporal distribution of the three aforementioned infrastructures was compared and analyzed on basin scale, based on the latest data of darns, root zone storage capacity, natural lakes, and so on. Results indicated the following: (1) Gray water storage capacity has exceeded that of the natural terrestrial surface ecosystem in the Yangtze River Basin and the Southeast Basins, where human activities are intense. (2) Gray water storage capacity has increased significantly in nine major basins from 1955 to 2020, but the timing of construction varies in different basins. (3) Green water storage capacity did not change much, the Songhua-Liaohe River Basin and the Huaihe River Basin increased slightly. (4) Blue water storage capacity shows a constantly increasing trend on the whole, in which the water storage capacity in the inland river basin (including the endorheic basin on the Tibetan Plateau) significantly increased. Our study revealed the basic information and spatio-temporal variation of gray-green-blue water storage capacities in nine major basins of China, which could lead to better coordination between natural and artificial water infrastructures and provide support for multidimensional optimization of water resource allocation.
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| 3. |
- Ahlström, Hanna, et al.
(author)
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An Earth system law perspective on governing social-hydrological systems in the Anthropocene
- 2021
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In: Earth System Governance. - : Elsevier BV. - 2589-8116. ; 10
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The global hydrological cycle is characterized by complex interdependencies and self-regulating feedbacks that keep water in an ever-evolving state of flux at local, regional, and global levels. Increasingly, the scale of human impacts in the Anthropocene is altering the dynamics of this cycle, which presents additional challenges for water governance. Earth system law provides an important approach for addressing gaps in governance that arise from the mismatch between the global hydrological cycle and dispersed regulatory architecture across institutions and geographic regions. In this article, we articulate the potential for Earth system law to account for core hydrological problems that complicate water governance, including delay, redistribution, intertwinements, permanence, and scale. Through merging concepts from Earth system law with existing policy and legal principles, we frame an approach for addressing hydrological problems in the Anthropocene and strengthening institutional fit between established governance systems and the global hydrological cycle. We discuss how such an approach can be applied, and the challenges and implications for governing water as a cycle and complex social-hydrological system, both in research and practice.
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| 4. |
- Bjørn, Anders, et al.
(author)
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Challenges and opportunities towards improved application of the planetary boundary for land-system change in life cycle assessment of products
- 2019
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In: Science of the Total Environment. - : Elsevier BV. - 0048-9697 .- 1879-1026. ; 696
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Life cycle assessment (LCA) can be used to translate the planetary boundaries (PBs) concept to the scale of decisions related to products. Existing PB-LCA methods convert quantified resource use and emissions to changes in the values of PB control variables. However, the control variable for the Land-system change PB, “area of forested land remaining”, is not suitable for use in LCA, since it is expressed at the beginning of an impact pathway and only covers forest biomes. At the same time, LCA approaches for modelling the biogeophysical impacts of land use and land-use change are immature and any interactions with other types of environmental impacts are lagging.Here, we propose how the assessment of Land-system change in PB-LCA can be improved. First, we introduce two control variables for application in LCA; surface air temperature and precipitation, and we identify corresponding provisional threshold values associated with state shifts in four comprehensive biome categories. Second, we propose simplified approaches suitable for modelling the impact of land use and land-use change in product life cycles on the values of these two control variables. Third, we propose how to quantify interactions between the PBs for Land-system change, Climate change and Freshwater use for a PB-LCA method. Finally, we identify several research needs to facilitate full implementation of our proposed approach.
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| 5. |
- Chrysafi, Anna, et al.
(author)
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Quantifying Earth system interactions for sustainable food production via expert elicitation
- 2022
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In: Nature Sustainability. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2398-9629. ; 5:10, s. 830-842
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Several safe boundaries of critical Earth system processes have already been crossed due to human perturbations; not accounting for their interactions may further narrow the safe operating space for humanity. Using expert knowledge elicitation, we explored interactions among seven variables representing Earth system processes relevant to food production, identifying many interactions little explored in Earth system literature. We found that green water and land system change affect other Earth system processes strongly, while land, freshwater and ocean components of biosphere integrity are the most impacted by other Earth system processes, most notably blue water and biogeochemical flows. We also mapped a complex network of mechanisms mediating these interactions and created a future research prioritization scheme based on interaction strengths and existing knowledge gaps. Our study improves the understanding of Earth system interactions, with sustainability implications including improved Earth system modelling and more explicit biophysical limits for future food production.
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| 6. |
- Fahrländer, Simon Felix, et al.
(author)
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Hydroclimatic Vulnerability of Wetlands to Upwind Land Use Changes
- 2024
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In: Earth's Future. - 2328-4277. ; 12:3
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Despite their importance, wetland ecosystems protected by the Ramsar Convention are under pressure from climate change and human activities. These drivers are altering water availability in these wetlands, changing water levels or surface water extent, in some cases, beyond historical variability. Attribution of the effects of human and climate activities is usually focused on changes within the wetlands or their upstream surface and groundwater inputs. However, the reliance of wetland water availability on upwind atmospheric moisture supply is less understood. Here, we assess the vulnerability of 40 Ramsar wetlands to precipitation changes caused by land use and hydroclimatic change occurring in their upwind moisture-supplying regions. We use moisture flows from a Lagrangian tracking model, atmospheric reanalysis data, and historical land use change (LUC) data to assess and quantify these changes. Our analyses show that historical LUC has decreased precipitation and terrestrial moisture recycling in most wetland hydrological basins, decreasing surface water availability (precipitation minus evaporation). The most substantial effects on wetland water availability occurred in the tropic subtropical regions of Central Europe and Asia. Overall, we found wetlands in Central Asia and South America to be the most vulnerable by a combination of LUC-driven effects on runoff, high terrestrial precipitation recycling, and recent decreases in surface water availability. This study stresses the need to incorporate upwind effects of land use changes in the restoration, management, and conservation of the world's wetlands.
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| 7. |
- Falkenmark, Malin, et al.
(author)
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A water-function-based framework for understanding and governing water resilience in the Anthropocene
- 2021
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In: One Earth. - : Elsevier BV. - 2590-3330 .- 2590-3322. ; 4:2, s. 213-225
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The freshwater cycle over land is fundamental for sustainability and resilience, yet is extensively modified and shaped by a vast range of human interventions in the land, water, and climate systems. The consequences of human water-cycle modifications can be non-linear, delayed, and distributed across boundaries, sectors, and scale. This complexity renders freshwater challenges difficult to govern and manage. We here propose a framework for understanding water's many functions for supporting, regulating, and stabilizing hydro-climatic, hydro-ecological, and hydro-social systems. This framework recognizes human impacts on major partitioning points, interactions among water functions, and stabilization and destabilization processes. A functional understanding of the freshwater cycle can integrate with social-ecological resilience-building principles, complement existing water sustainability governance approaches, and highlight the potential need for Earth-system-level governance of water. Recognizing water's diverse functional roles for resilience may promote a new generation of holistic and integrative water- land-climate governance.
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| 8. |
- Falkenmark, Malin, et al.
(author)
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Understanding of water resilience in the Anthropocene
- 2019
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In: Journal of Hydrology X. - : Elsevier BV. - 2589-9155. ; 2
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Water is indispensable for Earth resilience and sustainable development. The capacity of social-ecological systems to deal with shocks, adapting to changing conditions and transforming in situations of crisis are fundamentally dependent on the functions of water to e.g., regulate the Earth's climate, support biomass production, and supply water resources for human societies. However, massive, inter-connected, human interference involving climate forcing, water withdrawal, dam constructions, and land-use change have significantly disturbed these water functions and induced regime shifts in social-ecological systems. In many cases, changes in core water functions have pushed systems beyond tipping points and led to fundamental shifts in system feedback. Examples of such transgressions, where water has played a critical role, are collapse of aquatic systems beyond water quality and quantity thresholds, desertification due to soil and ecosystem degradation, and tropical forest dieback associated with self-amplifying moisture and carbon feedbacks. Here, we aggregate the volumes and flows of water involved in water functions globally, and review the evidence of freshwater related linear collapse and non-linear tipping points in ecological and social systems through the lens of resilience theory. Based on the literature review, we synthesize the role of water in mediating different types of ecosystem regime shifts, and generalize the process by which life support systems are at risk of collapsing due to loss of water functions. We conclude that water plays a fundamental role in providing social-ecological resilience, and suggest that further research is needed to understand how the erosion of water resilience at local and regional scale may potentially interact, cascade, or amplify through the complex, globally hyper-connected networks of the Anthropocene.
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| 9. |
- Gleeson, Tom, et al.
(author)
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Illuminating water cycle modifications and Earth system resilience in the Anthropocene
- 2020
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In: Water resources research. - 0043-1397 .- 1944-7973. ; 56:4
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Fresh water—the bloodstream of the biosphere—is at the center of the planetary drama of the Anthropocene. Water fluxes and stores regulate the Earth's climate and are essential for thriving aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems, as well as water, food, and energy security. But the water cycle is also being modified by humans at an unprecedented scale and rate. A holistic understanding of freshwater's role for Earth system resilience and the detection and monitoring of anthropogenic water cycle modifications across scales is urgent, yet existing methods and frameworks are not well suited for this. In this paper we highlight four core Earth system functions of water (hydroclimatic regulation, hydroecological regulation, storage, and transport) and key related processes. Building on systems and resilience theory, we review the evidence of regional‐scale regime shifts and disruptions of the Earth system functions of water. We then propose a framework for detecting, monitoring, and establishing safe limits to water cycle modifications and identify four possible spatially explicit methods for their quantification. In sum, this paper presents an ambitious scientific and policy grand challenge that could substantially improve our understanding of the role of water in the Earth system and cross‐scale management of water cycle modifications that would be a complementary approach to existing water management tools.
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| 10. |
- Jaramillo, Fernando, et al.
(author)
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Priorities and Interactions of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) with Focus on Wetlands
- 2019
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In: Water. - : MDPI. - 2073-4441. ; 11:3
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Wetlands are often vital physical and social components of a country’s natural capital, as well as providers of ecosystem services to local and national communities. We performed a network analysis to prioritize Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) targets for sustainable development in iconic wetlands and wetlandscapes around the world. The analysis was based on the information and perceptions on 45 wetlandscapes worldwide by 49 wetland researchers of the Global Wetland Ecohydrological Network (GWEN). We identified three 2030 Agenda targets of high priority across the wetlandscapes needed to achieve sustainable development: Target 6.3—“Improve water quality”; 2.4—“Sustainable food production”; and 12.2—“Sustainable management of resources”. Moreover, we found specific feedback mechanisms and synergies between SDG targets in the context of wetlands. The most consistent reinforcing interactions were the influence of Target 12.2 on 8.4—“Efficient resource consumption”; and that of Target 6.3 on 12.2. The wetlandscapes could be differentiated in four bundles of distinctive priority SDG-targets: “Basic human needs”, “Sustainable tourism”, “Environmental impact in urban wetlands”, and “Improving and conserving environment”. In general, we find that the SDG groups, targets, and interactions stress that maintaining good water quality and a “wise use” of wetlandscapes are vital to attaining sustainable development within these sensitive ecosystems.
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