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Sökning: WFRF:(Wareham Nick J.) > Panico Salvatore

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1.
  • Pennells, Lisa, et al. (författare)
  • Equalization of four cardiovascular risk algorithms after systematic recalibration : individual-participant meta-analysis of 86 prospective studies
  • 2019
  • Ingår i: European Heart Journal. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0195-668X .- 1522-9645. ; 40:7, s. 621-
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Aims: There is debate about the optimum algorithm for cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk estimation. We conducted head-to-head comparisons of four algorithms recommended by primary prevention guidelines, before and after ‘recalibration’, a method that adapts risk algorithms to take account of differences in the risk characteristics of the populations being studied.Methods and results: Using individual-participant data on 360 737 participants without CVD at baseline in 86 prospective studies from 22 countries, we compared the Framingham risk score (FRS), Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE), pooled cohort equations (PCE), and Reynolds risk score (RRS). We calculated measures of risk discrimination and calibration, and modelled clinical implications of initiating statin therapy in people judged to be at ‘high’ 10 year CVD risk. Original risk algorithms were recalibrated using the risk factor profile and CVD incidence of target populations. The four algorithms had similar risk discrimination. Before recalibration, FRS, SCORE, and PCE over-predicted CVD risk on average by 10%, 52%, and 41%, respectively, whereas RRS under-predicted by 10%. Original versions of algorithms classified 29–39% of individuals aged ≥40 years as high risk. By contrast, recalibration reduced this proportion to 22–24% for every algorithm. We estimated that to prevent one CVD event, it would be necessary to initiate statin therapy in 44–51 such individuals using original algorithms, in contrast to 37–39 individuals with recalibrated algorithms.Conclusion: Before recalibration, the clinical performance of four widely used CVD risk algorithms varied substantially. By contrast, simple recalibration nearly equalized their performance and improved modelled targeting of preventive action to clinical need.
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2.
  • Wood, Angela M., et al. (författare)
  • Risk thresholds for alcohol consumption : combined analysis of individual-participant data for 599 912 current drinkers in 83 prospective studies
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 391:10129, s. 1513-1523
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background: Low-risk limits recommended for alcohol consumption vary substantially across different national guidelines. To define thresholds associated with lowest risk for all-cause mortality and cardiovascular disease, we studied individual-participant data from 599 912 current drinkers without previous cardiovascular disease.Methods: We did a combined analysis of individual-participant data from three large-scale data sources in 19 high-income countries (the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration, EPIC-CVD, and the UK Biobank). We characterised dose-response associations and calculated hazard ratios (HRs) per 100 g per week of alcohol (12.5 units per week) across 83 prospective studies, adjusting at least for study or centre, age, sex, smoking, and diabetes. To be eligible for the analysis, participants had to have information recorded about their alcohol consumption amount and status (ie, non-drinker vs current drinker), plus age, sex, history of diabetes and smoking status, at least 1 year of follow-up after baseline, and no baseline history of cardiovascular disease. The main analyses focused on current drinkers, whose baseline alcohol consumption was categorised into eight predefined groups according to the amount in grams consumed per week. We assessed alcohol consumption in relation to all-cause mortality, total cardiovascular disease, and several cardiovascular disease subtypes. We corrected HRs for estimated long-term variability in alcohol consumption using 152 640 serial alcohol assessments obtained some years apart (median interval 5.6 years [5th-95th percentile 1.04-13.5]) from 71 011 participants from 37 studies.Findings: In the 599 912 current drinkers included in the analysis, we recorded 40 310 deaths and 39 018 incident cardiovascular disease events during 5.4 million person-years of follow-up. For all-cause mortality, we recorded a positive and curvilinear association with the level of alcohol consumption, with the minimum mortality risk around or below 100 g per week. Alcohol consumption was roughly linearly associated with a higher risk of stroke (HR per 100 g per week higher consumption 1.14, 95% CI, 1.10-1.17), coronary disease excluding myocardial infarction (1.06, 1.00-1.11), heart failure (1.09, 1.03-1.15), fatal hypertensive disease (1.24, 1.15-1.33); and fatal aortic aneurysm (1.15, 1.03-1.28). By contrast, increased alcohol consumption was loglinearly associated with a lower risk of myocardial infarction (HR 0.94, 0.91-0.97). In comparison to those who reported drinking >0-<= 100 g per week, those who reported drinking >100-<= 200 g per week, >200-<= 350 g per week, or >350 g per week had lower life expectancy at age 40 years of approximately 6 months, 1-2 years, or 4-5 years, respectively.Interpretation: In current drinkers of alcohol in high-income countries, the threshold for lowest risk of all-cause mortality was about 100 g/week. For cardiovascular disease subtypes other than myocardial infarction, there were no clear risk thresholds below which lower alcohol consumption stopped being associated with lower disease risk. These data support limits for alcohol consumption that are lower than those recommended in most current guidelines.
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3.
  • Ricci, Cristian, et al. (författare)
  • Alcohol intake in relation to non-fatal and fatal coronary heart disease and stroke: EPIC-CVD case-cohort study
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: BMJ (Clinical Research Edition). - : BMJ Publishing Group Ltd. - 0959-8138 .- 1756-1833. ; 361
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • AbstractObjective To investigate the association between alcohol consumption (at baseline and over lifetime) and non-fatal and fatal coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke.Design Multicentre case-cohort study.Setting A study of cardiovascular disease (CVD) determinants within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and nutrition cohort (EPIC-CVD) from eight European countries.Participants 32 549 participants without baseline CVD, comprised of incident CVD cases and a subcohort for comparison.Main outcome measures Non-fatal and fatal CHD and stroke (including ischaemic and haemorrhagic stroke).Results There were 9307 non-fatal CHD events, 1699 fatal CHD, 5855 non-fatal stroke, and 733 fatal stroke. Baseline alcohol intake was inversely associated with non-fatal CHD, with a hazard ratio of 0.94 (95% confidence interval 0.92 to 0.96) per 12 g/day higher intake. There was a J shaped association between baseline alcohol intake and risk of fatal CHD. The hazard ratios were 0.83 (0.70 to 0.98), 0.65 (0.53 to 0.81), and 0.82 (0.65 to 1.03) for categories 5.0-14.9 g/day, 15.0-29.9 g/day, and 30.0-59.9 g/day of total alcohol intake, respectively, compared with 0.1-4.9 g/day. In contrast, hazard ratios for non-fatal and fatal stroke risk were 1.04 (1.02 to 1.07), and 1.05 (0.98 to 1.13) per 12 g/day increase in baseline alcohol intake, respectively, including broadly similar findings for ischaemic and haemorrhagic stroke. Associations with cardiovascular outcomes were broadly similar with average lifetime alcohol consumption as for baseline alcohol intake, and across the eight countries studied. There was no strong evidence for interactions of alcohol consumption with smoking status on the risk of CVD events.Conclusions Alcohol intake was inversely associated with non-fatal CHD risk but positively associated with the risk of different stroke subtypes. This highlights the opposing associations of alcohol intake with different CVD types and strengthens the evidence for policies to reduce alcohol consumption.
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4.
  • Bamia, Christina, et al. (författare)
  • Mediterranean diet and colorectal cancer risk: results from a European cohort
  • 2013
  • Ingår i: European Journal of Epidemiology. - Dordrecht : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1573-7284 .- 0393-2990. ; 28:4, s. 317-328
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The authors investigated the association of adherence to Mediterranean diet with colorectal cancer (CRC) risk in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and nutrition study. Adherence to Mediterranean diet was expressed through two 10-unit scales, the Modified Mediterranean diet score (MMDS) and the Centre-Specific MMDS (CSMMDS). Both scales share the same dietary components but differ in the cut-off values that were used for these components in the construction of the scales. Adjusted hazard ratios (HR) for the associations of these scales with CRC incidence were estimated. After 5,296,617 person-years of follow-up, 4,355 incident CRC cases were identified. A decreased risk of CRC, of 8 and 11 % was estimated when comparing the highest (scores 6-9) with the lowest (scores 0-3) adherence to CSMMDS and MMDS respectively. For MMDS the HR was 0.89 (95 % confidence interval (CI): 0.80, 0.99). A 2-unit increment in either Mediterranean scale was associated with a borderline statistically significant 3 to 4 % reduction in CRC risk (HR for MMDS: 0.96; 95 % CI: 0.92, 1.00). These associations were somewhat more evident, among women, were mainly manifested for colon cancer risk and their magnitude was not altered when alcohol was excluded from MMDS. These findings suggest that following a Mediterranean diet may have a modest beneficial effect on CRC risk.
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5.
  • Bradbury, Kathryn E., et al. (författare)
  • Circulating insulin-like growth factor I in relation to melanoma risk in the European prospective investigation into cancer and nutrition
  • 2019
  • Ingår i: International Journal of Cancer. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 0020-7136 .- 1097-0215. ; 144:5, s. 957-966
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Insulin-like growth factor-I (IGF-I) regulates cell proliferation and apoptosis, and is thought to play a role in tumour development. Previous prospective studies have shown that higher circulating concentrations of IGF-I are associated with a higher risk of cancers at specific sites, including breast and prostate. No prospective study has examined the association between circulating IGF-I concentrations and melanoma risk. A nested case-control study of 1,221 melanoma cases and 1,221 controls was performed in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition cohort, a prospective cohort of 520,000 participants recruited from 10 European countries. Conditional logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) for incident melanoma in relation to circulating IGF-I concentrations, measured by immunoassay. Analyses were conditioned on the matching factors and further adjusted for age at blood collection, education, height, BMI, smoking status, alcohol intake, marital status, physical activity and in women only, use of menopausal hormone therapy. There was no significant association between circulating IGF-I concentration and melanoma risk (OR for highest vs lowest fifth = 0.93 [95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.71 to 1.22]). There was no significant heterogeneity in the association between IGF-I concentrations and melanoma risk when subdivided by gender, age at blood collection, BMI, height, age at diagnosis, time between blood collection and diagnosis, or by anatomical site or histological subtype of the tumour (Pheterogeneity≥0.078). We found no evidence for an association between circulating concentrations of IGF-I measured in adulthood and the risk of melanoma.
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6.
  • Imamura, Fumiaki, et al. (författare)
  • A combination of plasma phospholipid fatty acids and its association with incidence of type 2 diabetes : The EPIC-InterAct case-cohort study
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: PLoS Medicine. - : Public Library Science. - 1549-1277 .- 1549-1676. ; 14:10
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background Combinations of multiple fatty acids may influence cardiometabolic risk more than single fatty acids. The association of a combination of fatty acids with incident type 2 diabetes (T2D) has not been evaluated.Methods and findings We measured plasma phospholipid fatty acids by gas chromatography in 27,296 adults, including 12,132 incident cases of T2D, over the follow-up period between baseline (1991-1998) and 31 December 2007 in 8 European countries in EPIC-InterAct, a nested casecohort study. The first principal component derived by principal component analysis of 27 individual fatty acids (mole percentage) was the main exposure (subsequently called the fatty acid pattern score [FA-pattern score]). The FA-pattern score was partly characterised by high concentrations of linoleic acid, stearic acid, odd-chain fatty acids, and very-long-chain saturated fatty acids and low concentrations of.-linolenic acid, palmitic acid, and long-chain monounsaturated fatty acids, and it explained 16.1% of the overall variability of the 27 fatty acids. Based on country-specific Prentice-weighted Cox regression and random-effects meta-analysis, the FA-pattern score was associated with lower incident T2D. Comparing the top to the bottom fifth of the score, the hazard ratio of incident T2D was 0.23 (95% CI 0.19-0.29) adjusted for potential confounders and 0.37 (95% CI 0.27-0.50) further adjusted for metabolic risk factors. The association changed little after adjustment for individual fatty acids or fatty acid subclasses. In cross-sectional analyses relating the FA-pattern score to metabolic, genetic, and dietary factors, the FA-pattern score was inversely associated with adiposity, triglycerides, liver enzymes, C-reactive protein, a genetic score representing insulin resistance, and dietary intakes of soft drinks and alcohol and was positively associated with high-density-lipoprotein cholesterol and intakes of polyunsaturated fat, dietary fibre, and coffee (p < 0.05 each). Limitations include potential measurement error in the fatty acids and other model covariates and possible residual confounding.Conclusions A combination of individual fatty acids, characterised by high concentrations of linoleic acid, odd-chain fatty acids, and very long-chain fatty acids, was associated with lower incidence of T2D. The specific fatty acid pattern may be influenced by metabolic, genetic, and dietary factors.
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7.
  • Schmidt, Julie A, et al. (författare)
  • Insulin-like growth factor-I and risk of differentiated thyroid carcinoma in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition
  • 2014
  • Ingår i: Cancer Epidemiology, Biomarkers and Prevention. - 1055-9965 .- 1538-7755. ; 23:6, s. 976-985
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background: Little is known about the causes of thyroid cancer, but insulin-like growth factor-I (IGF-I) might play an important role in its development due to its mitogenic and anti-apoptotic properties. Methods: This study prospectively investigated the association between serum IGF-I concentrations and risk of differentiated thyroid carcinoma in a case-control study nested within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition. 345 incident cases of differentiated thyroid carcinoma were individually matched to 735 controls by study centre, sex, and age, date, time, and fasting status at blood collection, follow-up duration, and for women menopausal status, use of exogenous hormones, and phase of menstrual cycle at blood collection. Serum IGF-I concentrations were measured by immunoassay, and risk of differentiated thyroid cancer in relation to IGF-I concentration was estimated using conditional logistic regression. Results: There was a positive association between IGF-I concentrations and risk of differentiated thyroid carcinoma: the odds ratio for a doubling in IGF-I concentration was 1.48 (95% confidence interval: 1.06 - 2.08; ptrend = 0.02). The positive association with IGF-I was stable over time between blood collection and cancer diagnosis. Conclusion: These findings suggest that IGF-I concentrations may be positively associated with risk of differentiated thyroid carcinoma. Impact: This study provides the first prospective evidence of a potential association between circulating IGF-I concentrations and risk of differentiated thyroid carcinoma and may prompt the further investigations needed to confirm the association.
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8.
  • Bakker, Marije F., et al. (författare)
  • Plasma carotenoids, vitamin C, tocopherols, and retinol and the risk of breast cancer in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition cohort
  • 2016
  • Ingår i: American Journal of Clinical Nutrition. - : Elsevier BV. - 0002-9165 .- 1938-3207. ; 103:2, s. 454-464
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background: Carotenoids and vitamin C are thought to be associated with reduced cancer risk because of their antioxidative capacity.Objective: This study evaluated the associations of plasma carotenoid, retinol, tocopherol, and vitamin C concentrations and risk of breast cancer.Design: In a nested case-control study within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition cohort, 1502 female incident breast cancer cases were included, with an oversampling of premenopausal (n = 582) and estrogen receptor-negative (ER-) cases (n = 462). Controls (n = 1502) were individually matched to cases by using incidence density sampling. Prediagnostic samples were analyzed for alpha-carotene, beta-carotene, lycopene, lutein, zeaxanthin, beta-cryptoxanthin, retinol, alpha-tocopherol, gamma-tocopherol, and 454 vitamin C. Breast cancer risk was computed according to hormone receptor status and age at diagnosis (proxy for menopausal status) by using conditional logistic regression and was further stratified by smoking status, alcohol consumption, and body mass index (BMI). All statistical tests were 2-sided.Results: In quintile 5 compared with quintile 1, alpha-carotene (OR: 0.61; 95% CI: 0.39, 0.98) and beta-carotene (OR: 0.41; 95% CI: 0.26, 0.65) were inversely associated with risk of ER- breast tumors. The other analytes were not statistically associated with ER- breast cancer. For estrogen receptor-positive (ER+) tumors, no statistically significant associations were found. The test for heterogeneity between ER- and ER+ tumors was statistically significant only for beta-carotene (P-heterogeneity = 0.03). A higher risk of breast cancer was found for retinol in relation to ER-/progesterone receptor-negative tumors (OR: 2.37; 95% CI: 1.20, 4.67; P-heterogeneity with ER+/progesterone receptor positive = 0.06). We observed no statistically significant interaction between smoking, alcohol, or BMI and all investigated plasma analytes (based on tertile distribution).Conclusion: Our results indicate that higher concentrations of plasma beta-carotene and alpha-carotene are associated with lower breast cancer risk of ER tumors.
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9.
  • Campa, Daniele, et al. (författare)
  • Leukocyte telomere length in relation to pancreatic cancer risk: a prospective study.
  • 2014
  • Ingår i: Cancer Epidemiology Biomarkers & Prevention. - 1538-7755 .- 1055-9965. ; 23:11, s. 2447-2454
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background: Several studies have examined leukocyte telomere length (LTL) as a possible predictor for cancer at various organ sites. The hypothesis originally motivating many of these studies was that shorter telomeres would be associated with an increase in cancer risk, the results of epidemiologic studies have been inconsistent, however, and suggested positive, negative, or null associations. Two studies have addressed the association of LTL in relation to pancreatic cancer risk and the results are contrasting. Methods: we measured LTL in a prospective study of 331 pancreatic cancer cases and 331 controls in the context of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC). Results: We observed that the mean LTL was higher in cases (0.59±0.20) than in controls (0.57±0.17), although this difference was not statistically significant (p=0.07), and a basic logistic regression model showed no association of LTL with pancreas cancer risk. When adjusting for levels of HbA1c and C-Peptide, however, there was a weakly positive association between longer LTL and pancreatic cancer risk , OR=1.13 (1.01-1.27). Additional analyses by cubic spline regression suggested a possible non-linear relationship between RTL and pancreatic cancer risk (P=0.022), with a statistically non-significant increase in risk at very low LTL, as well as a significant increase at high LTL. Conclusion: Taken together, the results from our study do not support LTL as a uniform and strong predictor of pancreatic cancer. Impact: The results of this manuscript can provide insights into telomere dynamics and highlight the complex relationship between LTL and pancreatic cancer risk.
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10.
  • Fedirko, Veronika, et al. (författare)
  • Prediagnostic 25-Hydroxyvitamin D, VDR and CASR polymorphisms, and survival in patients with colorectal cancer in Western European populations
  • 2012
  • Ingår i: Cancer Epidemiology, Biomarkers and Prevention. - 1055-9965 .- 1538-7755. ; 21:4, s. 582-593
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background: Individuals with higher blood 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] levels have a lower risk of developing colorectal cancer (CRC), but the influence of 25(OH)D on mortality after CRC diagnosis is unknown.Methods: The association between prediagnostic 25(OH)D levels and CRC-specific (N ¼ 444) and overall mortality (N ¼ 541) was prospectively examined among 1,202 participants diagnosed with CRC between 1992 and 2003 in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort.Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used to calculate HRs and corresponding 95% CIs according to 25(OH)D quintiles and genetic variation within the VDR and CASR genes. Potential dietary, lifestyle, and metabolic effect modifiers were also investigated.Results: There were 541 deaths, 444 (82%) due to CRC. Mean follow-up was 73 months. In multivariable analysis, higher 25(OH)D levels were associated with a statistically significant reduction in CRC-specific (Ptrend ¼ 0.04) and overall mortality (Ptrend ¼ 0.01). Participants with 25(OH)D levels in the highest quintile had an adjusted HR of 0.69 (95% CI: 0.50–0.93) for CRC-specific mortality and 0.67 (95% CI: 0.50–0.88) for overall mortality, compared with the lowest quintile. Except for a possible interaction by prediagnostic dietary calcium intake (Pinteraction ¼ 0.01), no other potential modifying factors related to CRC survival were noted. The VDR (FokI and BsmI) and CASR (rs1801725) genotypes were not associated with survival.Conclusions: High prediagnostic 25(OH)D levels are associated with improved survival of patients with CRC. Impact: Our findings may stimulate further research directed at investigating the effects of blood vitamin D levels before, at, and after CRC diagnosis on outcomes in CRC patients.
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