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- Abbott, Benjamin W., et al.
(författare)
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Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire : an expert assessment
- 2016
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Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters. - : IOP Publishing. - 1748-9326. ; 11:3
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- As the permafrost region warms, its large organic carbon pool will be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition, combustion, and hydrologic export. Models predict that some portion of this release will be offset by increased production of Arctic and boreal biomass; however, the lack of robust estimates of net carbon balance increases the risk of further overshooting international emissions targets. Precise empirical or model-based assessments of the critical factors driving carbon balance are unlikely in the near future, so to address this gap, we present estimates from 98 permafrost-region experts of the response of biomass, wildfire, and hydrologic carbon flux to climate change. Results suggest that contrary to model projections, total permafrost-region biomass could decrease due to water stress and disturbance, factors that are not adequately incorporated in current models. Assessments indicate that end-of-the-century organic carbon release from Arctic rivers and collapsing coastlines could increase by 75% while carbon loss via burning could increase four-fold. Experts identified water balance, shifts in vegetation community, and permafrost degradation as the key sources of uncertainty in predicting future system response. In combination with previous findings, results suggest the permafrost region will become a carbon source to the atmosphere by 2100 regardless of warming scenario but that 65%-85% of permafrost carbon release can still be avoided if human emissions are actively reduced.
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| 2. |
- Bäckstrand, Kristina, 1979-
(författare)
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Carbon gas biogeochemistry of a northern peatland - in a dynamic permafrost landscape
- 2008
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Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- This thesis is about biogeochemical processes of a northern peatland and their importance as a link between the climate and the terrestrial system. Increased temperatures on a global level, and particularly in the Arctic, have led to melting permafrost and changes in hydrology. In turn, this affect the natural exchange of radiatively important trace gases between land and atmosphere that may reinforce climate change. The aim of this thesis is to increase the understanding about the exchange of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs) occurring in northern peatlands, to decrease uncertainty about their future carbon (C) balance. In order to pursue this aim, we designed a study that allowed measuring the C exchange at a subarctic peatland, accounting for spatial and temporal analysis at several levels. The field site was the Stordalen mire, northern Sweden. Exchange rates of CO2, and total hydrocarbons (THCs; CH4 and NMVOCs) were measured using an automatic chamber system for up to six years, at three different types of vegetation communities and permafrost regimes. The gas exchange was found to relate to different environmental and biological variables at different vegetation communities and at different temporal scales. Differences in flux rates and controls between sites could be explained with biological and environmental variables in a better way than the seasonal and interannual variability within a site.Snow season flux measurements were determined to be of high importance regarding the annual C budget. By excluding the snow season, the potential C source strength of a peatland is likely to be underestimated. The importance of combining the THCs with the CO2 to estimate the annual C balance was demonstrated as THC could be sufficient to shift the mire from a sink to a source of C to the atmosphere. Again, the C source strength may be significantly underestimated if only focusing on CO2 fluxes in wet peatland environments.
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