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- Kennedy, Beatrice, 1982-, et al.
(författare)
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App-based COVID-19 syndromic surveillance and prediction of hospital admissions in COVID Symptom Study Sweden
- 2022
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Ingår i: Nature Communications. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2041-1723. ; 13:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The app-based COVID Symptom Study was launched in Sweden in April 2020 to contribute to real-time COVID-19 surveillance. We enrolled 143,531 study participants (≥18 years) who contributed 10.6 million daily symptom reports between April 29, 2020 and February 10, 2021. Here, we include data from 19,161 self-reported PCR tests to create a symptom-based model to estimate the individual probability of symptomatic COVID-19, with an AUC of 0.78 (95% CI 0.74-0.83) in an external dataset. These individual probabilities are employed to estimate daily regional COVID-19 prevalence, which are in turn used together with current hospital data to predict next week COVID-19 hospital admissions. We show that this hospital prediction model demonstrates a lower median absolute percentage error (MdAPE: 25.9%) across the five most populated regions in Sweden during the first pandemic wave than a model based on case notifications (MdAPE: 30.3%). During the second wave, the error rates are similar. When we apply the same model to an English dataset, not including local COVID-19 test data, we observe MdAPEs of 22.3% and 19.0% during the first and second pandemic waves, respectively, highlighting the transferability of the prediction model.
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- Ludvigsson, Jonas F., 1969-, et al.
(författare)
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Anxiety after coeliac disease diagnosis predicts mucosal healing : a population-based study
- 2018
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Ingår i: Alimentary Pharmacology and Therapeutics. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 0269-2813 .- 1365-2036. ; 48:10, s. 1091-1098
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Coeliac disease has been linked to anxiety and depression. However, their association with mucosal healing is unknown.Aim: To examine the relationship between anxiety, depression and mucosal healing in coeliac disease.Methods: Between 1969 and 2008, we collected data on all small intestinal biopsies with villous atrophy from Sweden's 28 pathology departments. We restricted our cohort to individuals with data on follow-up biopsy (either persistent villous atrophy [n = 3317] or mucosal healing [n = 4331]). Through Cox regression, we estimated hazard ratios (HRs) for anxiety or depression.Results: Conclusion APPENDIX During follow-up, 123 (2.8/1000 person-years) individuals with mucosal healing had developed anxiety, compared to 94 (2.1/1000 person-years) with persistent villous atrophy. Mucosal healing was hence associated with a higher risk of future anxiety (HR = 1.49; 95% CI = 1.12-1.96). Similarly, 167 (3.8/1000 person-years) individuals with mucosal healing developed depression, compared to 148 (3.3/1000 person-years) with persistent villous atrophy, corresponding to a HR of 1.25 (95% CI = 0.99-1.59). Mucosal healing was more common in individuals with prior diagnoses of anxiety or depression before follow-up biopsy. Anxiety diagnosed between diagnostic and follow-up biopsy for coeliac disease was associated with an almost nine-fold increased chance of mucosal healing (odds ratio = 8.94; 95%CI = 2.03-39.27).Conclusion: Anxiety and depression are more common in coeliac disease patients with mucosal healing, both before and after follow-up biopsy, an association potentially mediated through more vigilant compliance with a gluten-free diet. This finding raises concern that achieving the goal of mucosal healing may come at a cost of an increased risk of mood disorders.
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