| 1. |
- Hay, S. I., et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 333 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2016 : A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
- 2017
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Lancet Publishing Group. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 390:10100, s. 1260-1344
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Measurement of changes in health across locations is useful to compare and contrast changing epidemiological patterns against health system performance and identify specific needs for resource allocation in research, policy development, and programme decision making. Using the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016, we drew from two widely used summary measures to monitor such changes in population health: disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE). We used these measures to track trends and benchmark progress compared with expected trends on the basis of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Methods: We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost and years of life lived with disability for each location, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using age-specific death rates and years of life lived with disability per capita. We explored how DALYs and HALE difered from expected trends when compared with the SDI: the geometric mean of income per person, educational attainment in the population older than age 15 years, and total fertility rate. Findings: The highest globally observed HALE at birth for both women and men was in Singapore, at 75·2 years (95% uncertainty interval 71·9-78·6) for females and 72·0 years (68·8-75·1) for males. The lowest for females was in the Central African Republic (45·6 years [42·0-49·5]) and for males was in Lesotho (41·5 years [39·0-44·0]). From 1990 to 2016, global HALE increased by an average of 6·24 years (5·97-6·48) for both sexes combined. Global HALE increased by 6·04 years (5·74-6·27) for males and 6·49 years (6·08-6·77) for females, whereas HALE at age 65 years increased by 1·78 years (1·61-1·93) for males and 1·96 years (1·69-2·13) for females. Total global DALYs remained largely unchanged from 1990 to 2016 (-2·3% [-5·9 to 0·9]), with decreases in communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) disease DALYs ofset by increased DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). The exemplars, calculated as the fve lowest ratios of observed to expected age-standardised DALY rates in 2016, were Nicaragua, Costa Rica, the Maldives, Peru, and Israel. The leading three causes of DALYs globally were ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, and lower respiratory infections, comprising 16·1% of all DALYs. Total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rates due to most CMNN causes decreased from 1990 to 2016. Conversely, the total DALY burden rose for most NCDs; however, age-standardised DALY rates due to NCDs declined globally. Interpretation: At a global level, DALYs and HALE continue to show improvements. At the same time, we observe that many populations are facing growing functional health loss. Rising SDI was associated with increases in cumulative years of life lived with disability and decreases in CMNN DALYs ofset by increased NCD DALYs. Relative compression of morbidity highlights the importance of continued health interventions, which has changed in most locations in pace with the gross domestic product per person, education, and family planning. The analysis of DALYs and HALE and their relationship to SDI represents a robust framework with which to benchmark location-specific health performance. Country-specific drivers of disease burden, particularly for causes with higher-than-expected DALYs, should inform health policies, health system improvement initiatives, targeted prevention eforts, and development assistance for health, including fnancial and research investments for all countries, regardless of their level of sociodemographic development. The presence of countries that substantially outperform others suggests the need for increased scrutiny for proven examples of best practices, which can help to extend gains, whereas the presence of underperforming countries suggests the need for devotion of extra attention to health systems that need more robust support. © The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.
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| 2. |
- Vos, T., et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 328 diseases and injuries for 195 countries, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
- 2017
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Ingår i: Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 390:10100, s. 1211-1259
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background As mortality rates decline, life expectancy increases, and populations age, non-fatal outcomes of diseases and injuries are becoming a larger component of the global burden of disease. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of prevalence, incidence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 328 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016. Methods We estimated prevalence and incidence for 328 diseases and injuries and 2982 sequelae, their non-fatal consequences. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death rates for each condition. For some causes, we used alternative modelling strategies if incidence or prevalence needed to be derived from other data. YLDs were estimated as the product of prevalence and a disability weight for all mutually exclusive sequelae, corrected for comorbidity and aggregated to cause level. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. GBD 2016 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER). Findings Globally, low back pain, migraine, age-related and other hearing loss, iron-deficiency anaemia, and major depressive disorder were the five leading causes of YLDs in 2016, contributing 57.6 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 40.8-75.9 million [7.2%, 6.0-8.3]), 45.1 million (29.0-62.8 million [5.6%, 4.0-7.2]), 36.3 million (25.3-50.9 million [4.5%, 3.8-5.3]), 34.7 million (23.0-49.6 million [4.3%, 3.5-5.2]), and 34.1 million (23.5-46.0 million [4.2%, 3.2-5.3]) of total YLDs, respectively. Age-standardised rates of YLDs for all causes combined decreased between 1990 and 2016 by 2.7% (95% UI 2.3-3.1). Despite mostly stagnant age-standardised rates, the absolute number of YLDs from non-communicable diseases has been growing rapidly across all SDI quintiles, partly because of population growth, but also the ageing of populations. The largest absolute increases in total numbers of YLDs globally were between the ages of 40 and 69 years. Age-standardised YLD rates for all conditions combined were 10.4% (95% UI 9.0-11.8) higher in women than in men. Iron-deficiency anaemia, migraine, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, major depressive disorder, anxiety, and all musculoskeletal disorders apart from gout were the main conditions contributing to higher YLD rates in women. Men had higher age-standardised rates of substance use disorders, diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, cancers, and all injuries apart from sexual violence. Globally, we noted much less geographical variation in disability than has been documented for premature mortality. In 2016, there was a less than two times difference in age-standardised YLD rates for all causes between the location with the lowest rate (China, 9201 YLDs per 100 000, 95% UI 6862-11943) and highest rate (Yemen, 14 774 YLDs per 100 000, 11 018-19 228). Interpretation The decrease in death rates since 1990 for most causes has not been matched by a similar decline in age-standardised YLD rates. For many large causes, YLD rates have either been stagnant or have increased for some causes, such as diabetes. As populations are ageing, and the prevalence of disabling disease generally increases steeply with age, health systems will face increasing demand for services that are generally costlier than the interventions that have led to declines in mortality in childhood or for the major causes of mortality in adults. Up-todate information about the trends of disease and how this varies between countries is essential to plan for an adequate health-system response. Copyright (C) The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.
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| 3. |
- Guo, J., et al.
(författare)
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Urinary bisphenol A concentrations and adiposity measures at age 7 years in a prospective birth cohort
- 2020
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Ingår i: Chemosphere. - : Pergamon Press. - 0045-6535 .- 1879-1298. ; 251
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Bisphenol A (BPA) exposure during early life may increase risk of childhood obesity, however, prospective evidence of birth cohort is limited and inconclusive. We aimed to explore the associations of maternal and childhood BPA exposure with child adiposity measures, including body mass index, waist circumference and skinfold thickness and waist to height ratio of children at 7 years. 430 mother-child pairs were examined from a population-based prospective cohort in a rural area of East China. BPA concentrations of spot urine samples were quantified in mothers and their children aged 3 and 7 years. Maternal urinary BPA concentration was significantly positively associated with waist circumference in children aged 7 years (β = 0.508 cm, 95% CI: 0.067, 0.950). These significant associations were not modified by child sex, but they were only observed among girls in sex-stratified analyses. Risk of central obesity related to prenatal BPA exposure was significantly higher in the second and the third tertile than those in the first tertile (odds ratio, OR = 2.510, 95% CI = 1.146, 5.499; OR = 2.584, 95% CI = 1.186, 5.631, respectively; p for trend = 0.022). The present findings suggested that prenatal exposure to BPA may enhance waist circumference of children and thereby increase risk of central obesity in school-age girls.
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| 4. |
- Barber, R. M., et al.
(författare)
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Healthcare access and quality index based on mortality from causes amenable to personal health care in 195 countries and territories, 1990-2015 : A novel analysis from the global burden of disease study 2015
- 2017
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Lancet Publishing Group. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 390:10091, s. 231-266
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background National levels of personal health-care access and quality can be approximated by measuring mortality rates from causes that should not be fatal in the presence of effective medical care (ie, amenable mortality). Previous analyses of mortality amenable to health care only focused on high-income countries and faced several methodological challenges. In the present analysis, we use the highly standardised cause of death and risk factor estimates generated through the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) to improve and expand the quantification of personal health-care access and quality for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. Methods We mapped the most widely used list of causes amenable to personal health care developed by Nolte and McKee to 32 GBD causes. We accounted for variations in cause of death certification and misclassifications through the extensive data standardisation processes and redistribution algorithms developed for GBD. To isolate the effects of personal health-care access and quality, we risk-standardised cause-specific mortality rates for each geography-year by removing the joint effects of local environmental and behavioural risks, and adding back the global levels of risk exposure as estimated for GBD 2015. We employed principal component analysis to create a single, interpretable summary measure-the Healthcare Quality and Access (HAQ) Index-on a scale of 0 to 100. The HAQ Index showed strong convergence validity as compared with other health-system indicators, including health expenditure per capita (r=0·88), an index of 11 universal health coverage interventions (r=0·83), and human resources for health per 1000 (r=0·77). We used free disposal hull analysis with bootstrapping to produce a frontier based on the relationship between the HAQ Index and the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a measure of overall development consisting of income per capita, average years of education, and total fertility rates. This frontier allowed us to better quantify the maximum levels of personal health-care access and quality achieved across the development spectrum, and pinpoint geographies where gaps between observed and potential levels have narrowed or widened over time. Findings Between 1990 and 2015, nearly all countries and territories saw their HAQ Index values improve; nonetheless, the difference between the highest and lowest observed HAQ Index was larger in 2015 than in 1990, ranging from 28·6 to 94·6. Of 195 geographies, 167 had statistically significant increases in HAQ Index levels since 1990, with South Korea, Turkey, Peru, China, and the Maldives recording among the largest gains by 2015. Performance on the HAQ Index and individual causes showed distinct patterns by region and level of development, yet substantial heterogeneities emerged for several causes, including cancers in highest-SDI countries; chronic kidney disease, diabetes, diarrhoeal diseases, and lower respiratory infections among middle-SDI countries; and measles and tetanus among lowest-SDI countries. While the global HAQ Index average rose from 40·7 (95% uncertainty interval, 39·0-42·8) in 1990 to 53·7 (52·2-55·4) in 2015, far less progress occurred in narrowing the gap between observed HAQ Index values and maximum levels achieved; at the global level, the difference between the observed and frontier HAQ Index only decreased from 21·2 in 1990 to 20·1 in 2015. If every country and territory had achieved the highest observed HAQ Index by their corresponding level of SDI, the global average would have been 73·8 in 2015. Several countries, particularly in eastern and western sub-Saharan Africa, reached HAQ Index values similar to or beyond their development levels, whereas others, namely in southern sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, and south Asia, lagged behind what geographies of similar development attained between 1990 and 2015. Interpretation This novel extension of the GBD Study shows the untapped potential for personal health-care access and quality improvement across the development spectrum. Amid substantive advances in personal health care at the national level, heterogeneous patterns for individual causes in given countries or territories suggest that few places have consistently achieved optimal health-care access and quality across health-system functions and therapeutic areas. This is especially evident in middle-SDI countries, many of which have recently undergone or are currently experiencing epidemiological transitions. The HAQ Index, if paired with other measures of health-system characteristics such as intervention coverage, could provide a robust avenue for tracking progress on universal health coverage and identifying local priorities for strengthening personal health-care quality and access throughout the world. Copyright © The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.
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| 5. |
- Fang, X., et al.
(författare)
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A Two-Stage Method to Estimate the Contribution of Road Traffic to PM(2).(5) Concentrations in Beijing, China
- 2016
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Ingår i: International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. - Basel, Switzerland : MDPIAG. - 1661-7827 .- 1660-4601. ; 13:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Fine particulate matters with aerodynamic diameters smaller than 2.5 micrometers (PM2.5) have been a critical environmental problem in China due to the rapid road vehicle growth in recent years. To date, most methods available to estimate traffic contributions to ambient PM2.5 concentration are often hampered by the need for collecting data on traffic volume, vehicle type and emission profile.Objective: To develop a simplified and indirect method to estimate the contribution of traffic to PM2.5 concentration in Beijing, China.Methods: Hourly PM2.5 concentration data, daily meteorological data and geographic information were collected at 35 air quality monitoring (AQM) stations in Beijing between 2013 and 2014. Based on the PM2.5 concentrations of different AQM station types, a two-stage method comprising a dispersion model and generalized additive mixed model (GAMM) was developed to estimate separately the traffic and non-traffic contributions to daily PM2.5 concentration. The geographical trend of PM2.5 concentrations was investigated using generalized linear mixed model. The temporal trend of PM2.5 and non-linear relationship between PM2.5 and meteorological conditions were assessed using GAMM.Results: The medians of daily PM2.5 concentrations during 2013-2014 at 35 AQM stations in Beijing ranged from 40 to 92 mug/m(3). There was a significant increasing trend of PM2.5 concentration from north to south. The contributions of road traffic to daily PM2.5 concentrations ranged from 17.2% to 37.3% with an average 30%. The greatest contribution was found at AQM stations near busy roads. On average, the contribution of road traffic at urban stations was 14% higher than that at rural stations.Conclusions: Traffic emissions account for a substantial share of daily total PM2.5 concentrations in Beijing. Our two-stage method is a useful and convenient tool in ecological and epidemiological studies to estimate the traffic contribution to PM2.5 concentrations when there is limited information on vehicle number and types and emission profile.
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| 6. |
- Santoro, Aurelia, et al.
(författare)
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Combating inflammaging through a Mediterranean whole diet approach : The NU-AGE project's conceptual framework and design
- 2014
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Ingår i: Mechanisms of Ageing and Development. - Clare, Ireland : Elsevier BV. - 0047-6374 .- 1872-6216. ; 136-137, s. 3-13
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The development of a chronic, low grade, inflammatory status named "inflammaging" is a major characteristic of ageing, which plays a critical role in the pathogenesis of age-related diseases. Inflammaging is both local and systemic, and a variety of organs and systems contribute inflammatory stimuli that accumulate lifelong. The NU-AGE rationale is that a one year Mediterranean whole diet (considered by UNESCO a heritage of humanity), newly designed to meet the nutritional needs of the elderly, will reduce inflammaging in fully characterized subjects aged 65-79 years of age, and will have systemic beneficial effects on health status (physical and cognitive). Before and after the dietary intervention a comprehensive set of analyses, including omics (transcriptomics, epigenetics, metabolomics and metagenomics) will be performed to identify the underpinning molecular mechanisms. NU-AGE will set up a comprehensive database as a tool for a systems biology approach to inflammaging and nutrition. NU-AGE is highly interdisciplinary, includes leading research centres in Europe on nutrition and ageing, and is complemented by EU multinational food industries and SMEs, interested in the production of functional and enriched/advanced traditional food tailored for the elderly market, and European Federations targeting policy makers and major stakeholders, from consumers to EU Food & Drink Industries.
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| 7. |
- Shegai, Timur, 1982, et al.
(författare)
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Unidirectional Broadband Light Emission from Supported Plasmonic Nanowires
- 2011
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Ingår i: Nano Letters. - : American Chemical Society (ACS). - 1530-6992 .- 1530-6984. ; 11:2, s. 706-711
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Metal nanowires are thought to become key elements in future nanophotonics applications. Here we show that single crystal silver nanowires supported on a dielectric interface behave similar to broadband unidirectional antennas for visible, light. The degree of directionality can be controlled through the nanowire radius and its dielectric environment and the effect can be interpreted in terms of so-called leakage radiation from surface plasmons propagating in a single direction along a wire. We measure a forward-to-backward emission ratio exceeding 15 dB and an angular spread of 4 degrees for wires with radii of the order 150 nm on glass in air. These findings could pave the way for development of metal nanowires as subwavelength directors of light in solar, sensor, and spectroscopy applications.
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