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| 2. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 3. |
- Couch, Fergus J., et al.
(författare)
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Identification of four novel susceptibility loci for oestrogen receptor negative breast cancer
- 2016
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Ingår i: Nature Communications. - : NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP. - 2041-1723. ; 7:11375, s. 1-13
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Common variants in 94 loci have been associated with breast cancer including 15 loci with genome-wide significant associations (P<5 x 10(-8)) with oestrogen receptor (ER)-negative breast cancer and BRCA1-associated breast cancer risk. In this study, to identify new ER-negative susceptibility loci, we performed a meta-analysis of 11 genome-wide association studies (GWAS) consisting of 4,939 ER-negative cases and 14,352 controls, combined with 7,333 ER-negative cases and 42,468 controls and 15,252 BRCA1 mutation carriers genotyped on the iCOGS array. We identify four previously unidentified loci including two loci at 13q22 near KLF5, a 2p23.2 locus near WDR43 and a 2q33 locus near PPIL3 that display genome-wide significant associations with ER-negative breast cancer. In addition, 19 known breast cancer risk loci have genome-wide significant associations and 40 had moderate associations (P<0.05) with ER-negative disease. Using functional and eQTL studies we implicate TRMT61B and WDR43 at 2p23.2 and PPIL3 at 2q33 in ER-negative breast cancer aetiology. All ER-negative loci combined account for similar to 11% of familial relative risk for ER-negative disease and may contribute to improved ER-negative and BRCA1 breast cancer risk prediction.
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| 4. |
- Fanourgakis, George S., et al.
(författare)
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Evaluation of global simulations of aerosol particle and cloud condensation nuclei number, with implications for cloud droplet formation
- 2019
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Ingår i: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1680-7316 .- 1680-7324. ; 19:13, s. 8591-8617
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A total of 16 global chemistry transport models and general circulation models have participated in this study; 14 models have been evaluated with regard to their ability to reproduce the near-surface observed number concentration of aerosol particles and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), as well as derived cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC). Model results for the period 2011-2015 are compared with aerosol measurements (aerosol particle number, CCN and aerosol particle composition in the submicron fraction) from nine surface stations located in Europe and Japan. The evaluation focuses on the ability of models to simulate the average across time state in diverse environments and on the seasonal and short-term variability in the aerosol properties. There is no single model that systematically performs best across all environments represented by the observations. Models tend to underestimate the observed aerosol particle and CCN number concentrations, with average normalized mean bias (NMB) of all models and for all stations, where data are available, of -24% and -35% for particles with dry diameters >50 and >120nm, as well as -36% and -34% for CCN at supersaturations of 0.2% and 1.0%, respectively. However, they seem to behave differently for particles activating at very low supersaturations (<0.1%) than at higher ones. A total of 15 models have been used to produce ensemble annual median distributions of relevant parameters. The model diversity (defined as the ratio of standard deviation to mean) is up to about 3 for simulated N3 (number concentration of particles with dry diameters larger than 3nm) and up to about 1 for simulated CCN in the extra-polar regions. A global mean reduction of a factor of about 2 is found in the model diversity for CCN at a supersaturation of 0.2% (CCN0.2) compared to that for N3, maximizing over regions where new particle formation is important. An additional model has been used to investigate potential causes of model diversity in CCN and bias compared to the observations by performing a perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) accounting for uncertainties in 26 aerosol-related model input parameters. This PPE suggests that biogenic secondary organic aerosol formation and the hygroscopic properties of the organic material are likely to be the major sources of CCN uncertainty in summer, with dry deposition and cloud processing being dominant in winter. Models capture the relative amplitude of the seasonal variability of the aerosol particle number concentration for all studied particle sizes with available observations (dry diameters larger than 50, 80 and 120nm). The short-term persistence time (on the order of a few days) of CCN concentrations, which is a measure of aerosol dynamic behavior in the models, is underestimated on average by the models by 40% during winter and 20% in summer. In contrast to the large spread in simulated aerosol particle and CCN number concentrations, the CDNC derived from simulated CCN spectra is less diverse and in better agreement with CDNC estimates consistently derived from the observations (average NMB -13% and -22% for updraft velocities 0.3 and 0.6ms-1, respectively). In addition, simulated CDNC is in slightly better agreement with observationally derived values at lower than at higher updraft velocities (index of agreement 0.64 vs. 0.65). The reduced spread of CDNC compared to that of CCN is attributed to the sublinear response of CDNC to aerosol particle number variations and the negative correlation between the sensitivities of CDNC to aerosol particle number concentration (Nd=Na) and to updraft velocity (Nd=w). Overall, we find that while CCN is controlled by both aerosol particle number and composition, CDNC is sensitive to CCN at low and moderate CCN concentrations and to the updraft velocity when CCN levels are high. Discrepancies are found in sensitivities Nd=Na and Nd=w; models may be predisposed to be too "aerosol sensitive" or "aerosol insensitive" in aerosol-cloud-climate interaction studies, even if they may capture average droplet numbers well. This is a subtle but profound finding that only the sensitivities can clearly reveal and may explain intermodel biases on the aerosol indirect effect.
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| 5. |
- Shu, Xiang, et al.
(författare)
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Associations of obesity and circulating insulin and glucose with breast cancer risk : a Mendelian randomization analysis
- 2019
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Ingår i: International Journal of Epidemiology. - : OXFORD UNIV PRESS. - 0300-5771 .- 1464-3685. ; 48:3, s. 795-806
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: In addition to the established association between general obesity and breast cancer risk, central obesity and circulating fasting insulin and glucose have been linked to the development of this common malignancy. Findings from previous studies, however, have been inconsistent, and the nature of the associations is unclear. Methods: We conducted Mendelian randomization analyses to evaluate the association of breast cancer risk, using genetic instruments, with fasting insulin, fasting glucose, 2-h glucose, body mass index (BMI) and BMI-adjusted waist-hip-ratio (WHRadj BMI). We first confirmed the association of these instruments with type 2 diabetes risk in a large diabetes genome-wide association study consortium. We then investigated their associations with breast cancer risk using individual-level data obtained from 98 842 cases and 83 464 controls of European descent in the Breast Cancer Association Consortium. Results: All sets of instruments were associated with risk of type 2 diabetes. Associations with breast cancer risk were found for genetically predicted fasting insulin [odds ratio (OR) = 1.71 per standard deviation (SD) increase, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.26-2.31, p = 5.09 x 10(-4)], 2-h glucose (OR = 1.80 per SD increase, 95% CI = 1.3 0-2.49, p = 4.02 x 10(-4)), BMI (OR = 0.70 per 5-unit increase, 95% CI = 0.65-0.76, p = 5.05 x 10(-19)) and WHRadj BMI (OR = 0.85, 95% CI = 0.79-0.91, p = 9.22 x 10(-6)). Stratified analyses showed that genetically predicted fasting insulin was more closely related to risk of estrogen-receptor [ER]-positive cancer, whereas the associations with instruments of 2h glucose, BMI and WHRadj BMI were consistent regardless of age, menopausal status, estrogen receptor status and family history of breast cancer. Conclusions: We confirmed the previously reported inverse association of genetically predicted BMI with breast cancer risk, and showed a positive association of genetically predicted fasting insulin and 2-h glucose and an inverse association of WHRadj BMI with breast cancer risk. Our study suggests that genetically determined obesity and glucose/insulin-related traits have an important role in the aetiology of breast cancer.
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| 7. |
- Barrdahl, Myrto, et al.
(författare)
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A comprehensive analysis of polymorphic variants in steroid hormone and insulin-like growth factor-1 metabolism and risk of in situ breast cancer : Results from the Breast and Prostate Cancer Cohort Consortium
- 2018
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Ingår i: International Journal of Cancer. - : Wiley. - 0020-7136 .- 1097-0215. ; 142:6, s. 1182-1188
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We assessed the association between 1,414 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in genes involved in synthesis and metabolism of steroid hormones and insulin-like growth factor 1, and risk of breast cancer in situ (BCIS), with the aim of determining whether any of these were disease specific. This was carried out using 1,062 BCIS cases and 10,126 controls as well as 6,113 invasive breast cancer cases from the Breast and Prostate Cancer Cohort Consortium (BPC3). Three SNPs showed at least one nominally significant association in homozygous minor versus homozygous major models. ACVR2A-rs2382112 (ORhom=3.05, 95%CI=1.72-5.44, Phom=1.47 × 10-4), MAST2-rs12124649 (ORhom=1.73, 95% CI =1.18-2.54, Phom=5.24 × 10-3), and INSR-rs10500204 (ORhom=1.96, 95% CI=1.44-2.67, Phom=1.68 × 10-5) were associated with increased risk of BCIS; however, only the latter association was significant after correcting for multiple testing. Furthermore, INSR-rs10500204 was more strongly associated with the risk of BCIS than invasive disease in case-only analyses using the homozygous minor versus homozygous major model (ORhom=1.78, 95% CI=1.30-2.44, Phom=3.23 × 10-4). The SNP INSR-rs10500204 is located in an intron of the INSR gene and is likely to affect binding of the promyelocytic leukemia (PML) protein. The PML gene is known as a tumor suppressor and growth regulator in cancer. However, it is not clear on what pathway the A-allele of rs10500204 could operate to influence the binding of the protein. Hence, functional studies are warranted to investigate this further.
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| 8. |
- Gaudet, Mia M., et al.
(författare)
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Interactions between breast cancer susceptibility loci and menopausal hormone therapy in relationship to breast cancer in the Breast and Prostate Cancer Cohort Consortium
- 2016
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Ingår i: Breast Cancer Research and Treatment. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0167-6806 .- 1573-7217. ; 155:3, s. 531-540
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Current use of menopausal hormone therapy (MHT) has important implications for postmenopausal breast cancer risk, and observed associations might be modified by known breast cancer susceptibility loci. To provide the most comprehensive assessment of interactions of prospectively collected data on MHT and 17 confirmed susceptibility loci with invasive breast cancer risk, a nested case-control design among eight cohorts within the NCI Breast and Prostate Cancer Cohort Consortium was used. Based on data from 13,304 cases and 15,622 controls, multivariable-adjusted logistic regression analyses were used to estimate odds ratios (OR) and 95 % confidence intervals (CI). Effect modification of current and past use was evaluated on the multiplicative scale. P values < 1.5 x 10(-3) were considered statistically significant. The strongest evidence of effect modification was observed for current MHT by 9q31-rs865686. Compared to never users of MHT with the rs865686 GG genotype, the association between current MHT use and breast cancer risk for the TT genotype (OR 1.79, 95 % CI 1.43-2.24; P (interaction) = 1.2 x 10(-4)) was less than expected on the multiplicative scale. There are no biological implications of the sub-multiplicative interaction between MHT and rs865686. Menopausal hormone therapy is unlikely to have a strong interaction with the common genetic variants associated with invasive breast cancer.
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| 9. |
- Helgadottir, Hildur, et al.
(författare)
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Phenocopies in melanoma-prone families with germ-line CDKN2A mutations
- 2018
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Ingår i: Genetics in Medicine. - : Elsevier BV. - 1098-3600. ; 20:9, s. 1087-1090
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Purpose: Carriers of CDKN2A mutations have high risks of melanoma and certain other cancers. In this study we examined the occurrence of tumors among CDKN2A wild type (wt) members of melanoma-prone families with CDKN2A mutations. Methods: Swedish and US melanoma-prone families with CDKN2A mutations were included. Data was collected on tumors diagnosed among family members. Among the CDKN2A mutated families, members with CDKN2A wt status who were diagnosed with melanoma were designated phenocopies. Results: Of patients with melanoma in the CDKN2A mutated families (n = 266), 7.1%, were seen among members with CDKN2A wt status (phenocopy rate). Among the CDKN2A wt family members of the CDKN2A mutated families (n = 256), 7.4% were diagnosed with melanoma. The prospective relative risk for melanomas was significantly higher among the CDKN2A wt subjects compared with population-based controls (7.4 (95% confidence interval 1.7–33.2)), while no elevated risks of nonmelanoma cancers were seen and their offspring did not have significantly elevated risks of melanoma or other cancers. Conclusion: Members of CDKN2A mutation carrying families who test negative for their family’s mutation have moderately increased risk for melanoma and should, in addition to being considered for continuing dermatologic surveillance, be encouraged to follow sun safety recommendations and practice skin self-exams.
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| 10. |
- Taylor, Nicholas J, et al.
(författare)
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Estimating CDKN2A mutation carrier probability among global familial melanoma cases using GenoMELPREDICT
- 2019
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Ingår i: Journal of the American Academy of Dermatology. - : Elsevier BV. - 0190-9622 .- 1097-6787. ; 81:2, s. 386-394
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Although rare in the general population, highly penetrant germline mutations in CDKN2A are responsible for 5-40% of melanoma cases reported in melanoma-prone families. We sought to determine whether MELPREDICT was generalizable to a global series of melanoma families and whether performance improvements can be achieved.METHODS: 2,116 familial melanoma cases were ascertained by the international GenoMEL Consortium. We recapitulated the MELPREDICT model within our data (GenoMELPREDICT) to assess performance improvements by adding phenotypic risk factors and history of pancreatic cancer. We report areas under the curve (AUC) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) along with net reclassification indices (NRI) as performance metrics.RESULTS: MELPREDICT performed well (AUC=0.752; 95%CI: 0.730, 0.775), and GenoMELPREDICT performance was similar (AUC=0.748; 95% CI: 0.726, 0.771). Adding a reported history of pancreatic cancer yielded discriminatory improvement (p<0.0001) in GenoMELPREDICT (AUC=0.772; 95%CI: 0.750, 0.793; NRI=0.40). Including phenotypic risk factors did not improve performance.CONCLUSION: The MELPREDICT model functioned well in a global dataset of familial melanoma cases. Adding pancreatic cancer history improved model prediction. GenoMELPREDICT is a simple tool for predicting CDKN2A mutational status among melanoma patients from melanoma-prone families and can aid in counselling these patients towards genetic testing or cancer risk counselling.
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