| 1. |
- Cong, Cong, et al.
(författare)
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Modeling place-based nature-based solutions to promote urban carbon neutrality
- 2023
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Ingår i: Ambio. - : Springer Nature. - 0044-7447 .- 1654-7209. ; :52, s. 1297-1313
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Nature-based solutions (NbS) are recognized as widely available and cost-effective mechanisms for sequestering carbon and offsetting carbon emissions. Realistic NbS implementations for carbon neutrality need to be effective at the global level and also appropriate for the socio-economic and physical conditions prevailing at the local level. This paper presents a framework that can help stakeholders identify demands, locations, and types of NbS interventions that could maximize NbS benefits at the local scale. Key processes in the framework include (1) interpolating carbon emissions data at larger spatial scales to high-resolution cells, using land use and socio-economic data; (2) assessing NbS effects on carbon reduction and their location-related suitability, through qualitative literature review, and (3) spatially allocating and coupling multiple NbS interventions to land use cells. The system was tested in Stockholm, Sweden. The findings show that the urban center should be allocated with combinations of improving access to green spaces and streetscapes, while the rural and suburban areas should prioritize preserving and utilizing natural areas. Our proposed method framework can help planners better select target locations for intended risk/hazard-mitigating interventions.
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| 2. |
- Kalantari, Zahra, et al.
(författare)
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Meeting sustainable development challenges in growing cities : Coupled social-ecological systems modeling of land use and water changes
- 2019
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Ingår i: Journal of Environmental Management. - : Elsevier BV. - 0301-4797 .- 1095-8630. ; 245, s. 471-480
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Ongoing urban expansion may degrade natural resources, ecosystems, and the services they provide to human societies, e.g., through land use and water changes and feedbacks. In order to control and minimize such negative impacts of urbanization, best practices for sustainable urban development must be identified, supported, and reinforced. To accomplish this, assessment methods and tools need to consider the couplings and feedbacks between social and ecological systems, as the basis for improving the planning and management of urban development. Collaborative efforts by academics, urban planners, and other relevant actors are also essential in this context. This will require relevant methods and tools for testing and projecting scenarios of coupled social-ecological system (CSES) behavior, changes, and feedbacks, in support of sustainable development of growing cities. This paper presents a CSES modeling approach that can provide such support, by coupling socio-economically driven land use changes and associated hydrological changes. The paper exemplifies and tests the applicability of this approach for a concrete case study with relevant data availability, the Tyresan catchment in Stockholm County, Sweden. Results show that model integration in the approach can reveal impacts of urbanization on hydrological and water resource, and the implications and feedbacks for urban societies and ecosystems. The CSES approach introduces new model challenges, but holds promise for improved model support towards sustainable urban development.
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| 3. |
- Kåresdotter, Elisie, et al.
(författare)
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First mile/last mile problems in smart and sustainable cities : A case study in Stockholm County
- 2022
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Ingår i: The Journal of urban technology. - : Informa UK Limited. - 1063-0732 .- 1466-1853. ; 29:2, s. 115-137
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The first mile/last mile (FM/LM) problem in public transport refers to the spatial accessibility of public transport and is the most important factor determining whether an individual will choose public transport. The FM/LM problem in Stockholm County, Sweden, was evaluated using a Geographic Information System estimating distances to public transport for the years 2019 and 2035. Overall, the population in Stockholm County, have good access to public transport. However, access varies with abilities, with elderly having 50 percent and elderly impaired 15 percent of their area within walking distance to public transport compared with the average citizen. Planned developments can provide good access to public transport, with extensive improvements for the elderly. However, inadequate planning for population increase will likely decrease the perceived public transport accessibility. Apartments and commercial buildings in the study area have high access to public transport. Elderly people have good access within city and regional centers, while access could be improved in other areas. Inclusion of FM/LM in the planning support system used in Stockholm could help mitigate FM/LM problems and extend access to public transport to all people of different abilities. This is vital in creating sustainable mobility networks and achieving sustainable development in smart cities.
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| 4. |
- Kåresdotter, Elisie, et al.
(författare)
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Navigating the Currents: Understanding Global Water Cooperation and Conflict Mitigation Dynamics
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Annan publikation (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- The demand for water is increasing rapidly due to growing populations and intensified human activities such as agriculture, industry, and energy production. This has led to increasing concerns about the availability and sustainable use of freshwater, as conflicts over water are reported to have increased while cooperation has declined over the past decade. Further research on water-related conflict and cooperation is needed to improve understanding of key factors and ways to mitigate the conflicts and counteract their escalating trend. This study investigates which main factors relate to and may have affected cooperation and conflict events worldwide in the last 70 years as a basis for understanding how to promote effective water-based cooperation and conflict reduction; investigated factors include, for example, hydro-climatic and socioeconomic ones, with the latter encompassing, e.g., wealth, export dependency, demographic, and water use factors. The study used panel data models and content analysis of reported event descriptions to achieve its aims of identifying main conflict-influencing factors and which of these may contribute to successful conflict mitigation. The results indicate that countries that cooperate experience significant subsequent decrease in conflicts. Cooperation is particularly effective in areas with low water stress, while in high-stress areas, diplomatic efforts combined with economic collaboration can boost resilience and increase conflict resolution effectiveness. Economic robustness and trade incentives to maintain peace are strongly correlated with fewer conflicts. Cooperation with less affluent countries also emerges as influential for fewer conflicts, and stability or even growth in GDP and exports. Cooperation efforts can thus be strategic investments for promoting diplomatic stability and improving a nation's economic standing. Understanding which measures can be successful for conflict mitigation can provide valuable insights to global policymakers and water management leaders, enabling them to avoid future conflicts based on current and projected water availability.
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| 5. |
- Page, Jessica, et al.
(författare)
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A more complete accounting of greenhouse gas emissions and sequestration in urban landscapes
- 2021
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Ingår i: Anthropocene. - : Elsevier BV. - 2213-3054. ; 34
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Understanding interactions between complex human and natural systems involved in urban carbon cycling is important when balancing the dual goals of urban development to accommodate a growing population, while also achieving urban carbon neutrality. This study develops a systems breakdown accounting method to assess the urban carbon cycle. The method facilitates greater understanding of the complex interactions within and between systems involved in this cycle, in order to identify ways in which humans can adapt their interactions to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions from urban regions. Testing the systems breakdown accounting method in Stockholm County, Sweden, we find that it provides new insights into the carbon interactions with urban green-blue areas in the region. Results show how Stockholm County can reduce its emissions and achieve its goal of local carbon net-neutrality, if the green areas protect its carbon sequestration potential and maintain it to offset projected remaining active emissions. Results also show that the inland surface waters and inner archipelago waters within Stockholm County are a considerable source of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. A better understanding of these water emissions is necessary to formulate effective planning and policy measures that can reduce urban emissions. The insights gained from this study can also be applied in other regions. In particular, water bodies could play a significant role in the urban carbon cycle and using this knowledge for more complete carbon accounting, and a better understanding of green-blue interactions could help to reduce net urban emissions in many places.
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| 6. |
- Page, Jessica Faye, 1991-
(författare)
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Sustainable Urban and Regional Development and Related Ecosystem Services and Water-Climate Interactions
- 2023
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Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- To accommodate a growing global population while mitigating climate change, urban areas must grow while minimising environmental impacts. To achieve this, a city must be treated as a complex socio-ecological system in which many actors and subsystems act in unclear and unpredictable ways. This thesis explores the workings and interactions of this complex socio-ecological system by assessing how urban and regional planning and policy decisions affect the contributions of cities to climate change, and whether appropriate planning and policy tools can minimise these contributions. Computer models were developed to investigate and couple planning and policy decisions and their potential impacts on the environment, particularly in terms of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to the atmosphere. The models were then employed for generation of scientific knowledge and for converting this knowledge into practical planning tools and recommendations.Methods used in developing models that reflect complex urban systems included cooperation with experienced county planners to improve model accuracy; coupling of sub-system models in a socio-ecological framework for scenario analysis of the outcomes of planning and policy decisions in terms of GHG emissions; systems breakdown analysis of green-blue contributions to the urban carbon cycle; and modelling to identify how these contributions could be harnessed to reduce net urban emissions. The main study area was Stockholm County, Sweden, with later extension of the modelling approach to 54 major European cities. Cooperation with Stockholm County planners during model development resulted in an improved tool for scientific research that was also suited to practical planning, increasing the potential for knowledge developed through scientific research to be applied in reality. Scenario analysis of policies for Stockholm County revealed that zoning reduced the extra GHG emissions associated with necessary urban growth by 72% compared with a baseline scenario. Analysis of the urban carbon cycle in Stockholm County showed that vegetative carbon sequestration helped offset GHG emissions locally, but that re-emissions via surface waters compromised the potential to reach ‘net-zero’ emissions from Stockholm County. However, climate action goals for Stockholm could still be achieved if its ambitious emissions reduction plans are realised and if the current sequestration capacity of Stockholm County’s many green areas can be maintained in coming decades. Extensive modelling of urban emissions in multiple European cities showed potential for green-space sequestration and revealed that nature-based solutions (NbS) applied at city scale could help reduce urban emissions. Incorporation of NbS into climate action plans for these cities would maximise the associated GHG emissions reduction and increase the likelihood of the cities achieving their climate action goals. In conclusion, the climate change impacts of future urban expansion could be mitigated by incorporating planning and policy tools such as zoning, protection of green-blue spaces and NbS into whole-system urban and regional development plans. This could bring cities closer to achieving truly sustainable urban development.
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| 7. |
- Page, Jessica, et al.
(författare)
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Open-source planning support system for sustainable regional planning : A case study of Stockholm County, Sweden
- 2020
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Ingår i: Environment and planning B. - : SAGE Publications Ltd. - 2399-8083 .- 2399-8091. ; 47:8, s. 1508-1523
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Population increases and environmental degradation are challenges for urban sustainability. Planning support systems are available to assist local authorities in developing strategies toward sustainability and resilience of urban areas, but are not always used in practice. We adapted an open-source planning support system to the case of Stockholm County, Sweden, where there is a productive working relationship between researchers, city planners, and regional planners. We employed a collaborative approach in extending and updating the planning support system and analyzed the outcomes, in order to both improve the planning support system and to investigate the process of planner engagement in planning support system development. The approach involved systematic interactions with local planning authorities and e.g. additional data processing, integrating scientific knowledge, policy, and engagement by planners in the complex process of planning for sustainable urban development. This made the planning support system more user-friendly for local planners, facilitating adoption by planning authorities through overcoming common quality and acceptance barriers to the use of planning support system in practice. Involving planners in planning support system development thus increases (i) planning support system quality, producing relevant and up-to-date outputs, and (ii) acceptance for planning support system by regional planners. Further assessment is required to determine whether planners can operate the adapted planning support system unaided.
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| 8. |
- Pan, Haozhi, et al.
(författare)
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Contribution of prioritized urban nature-based solutions allocation to carbon neutrality
- 2023
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Ingår i: Nature Climate Change. - : Springer Nature. - 1758-678X .- 1758-6798. ; 13:8, s. 862-870
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Nature-based solutions (NBS) are essential for carbon-neutral cities, yet how to effectively allocate them remains a question. Carbon neutrality requires city-led climate action plans that incorporate both indirect and direct contributions of NBS. Here we assessed the carbon emissions mitigation potential of NBS in European cities, focusing particularly on commonly overlooked indirect pathways, for example, human behavioural interventions and resource savings. Assuming maximum theoretical implementation, NBS in the residential, transport and industrial sectors could reduce urban carbon emissions by up to 25%. Spatially prioritizing different types of NBS in 54 major European Union cities could reduce anthropogenic carbon emissions by on average 17.4%. Coupling NBS with other existing measures in Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios could reduce total carbon emissions by 57.3% in 2030, with both indirect pathways and sequestration. Our results indicate that carbon neutrality will be near for some pioneering cities by 2030, while three can achieve it completely.
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| 9. |
- Pan, Haozhi, et al.
(författare)
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How ecosystems services drive urban growth : Integrating nature-based solutions
- 2021
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Ingår i: Anthropocene. - : Elsevier. - 2213-3054. ; 35
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Addressing urban challenges with nature-based approaches can improve and protect ecosystem services. Yet, urban planning has not efficiently integrated such approaches to manage land use. This paper examines interactions between human and natural systems that result in ecosystem services and changes in land use and land cover in urban areas. It develops a social-ecological model for land use and land cover change, and for ecosystems services that integrates nature-based solutions in urban planning. The model treats spatial variations in ecosystems services as both drivers and consequences of human decision-making in choosing commercial and residential locations that drive land use and land cover change. We tested the social-ecological model in Stockholm County, Sweden, on a 30 × 30 m grid. Results show that accessibility in ecosystem services drives urban residential and commercial development, characterized by non-linearity. Areas around existing urban centers show high accessibility in ecosystem services and high development probabilities, whereas smaller population centers in large areas enjoy high accessibility to ecosystem services and low urban development probabilities. Model results suggest place-specific nature-based strategies for addressing the heterogeneous spatial relationships between ecosystem services and urban development.
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| 10. |
- Pan, Haozhi, et al.
(författare)
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Potential contribution of prioritized spatial allocation of nature-based solutions to climate neutrality in major EU cities
- 2024
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Annan publikation (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- We assessed the mitigation potential of nature-based solutions (NbS) within commonly overlooked pathways, including human behavioral interventions and resource savings, in addition to the well-understood carbon sequestration area. We found that general NbS implementation in the residential, transport, and industrial sectors of European cities can reduce urban carbon emissions by up to 25%. Based on spatial patterns of carbon emissions and the local context of each city, we then prioritized spatial allocation of different types of NbS implementations within 54 major EU cities, in order to maximize the carbon emissions reduction potential. We found that prioritized NbS could reduce human activity-related carbon emissions by on average 17.4% for all cities, with 8.1%, 14.0%, and 9.6% reduction in the residential, industrial, and transport sector, respectively, while 5.6% of the remaining carbon emissions could be captured by carbon sequestration. Projections to 2030 showed that prioritized NbS implementations on all available land parcels in the RCP 1.9 scenario would reduce total carbon emissions by on average 62.5% (95% CI: 47.9–66.7%) compared with the baseline scenario, with NbS capturing 22.0% marginal emissions and sequestration capturing 13.3%. Some pioneering cities climate action are projected to be very close to achieve carbon neutrality by 2030 while 3 cities can realize the goal. For carbon neutrality, cities therefore need to co-integrate indirect (human behaviors and resource saving) and direct (sequestration) contributions of NbS into aggressive climate action plans.
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