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- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 2. |
- Li, Xueying, et al.
(författare)
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Triple collocation-based merging of multi-source gridded evapotranspiration data in the Nordic Region
- 2023
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Ingår i: Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. - 1873-2240. ; 335
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Accurate evapotranspiration (ET) data are required for many hydro-meteorological applications. Compared with the traditional evaluation that requires in-situ measurements, the triple collocation (TC) technique estimates geophysical product errors without the need for ground truth, which is especially suitable over large areas lacking a dense in-situ network. However, violations of the zero-error cross-correlation (ECC) assumption are found to be the dominant sources of impairing the TC robustness. This study presents the first application of a TC-based merging framework that optimally considers ECC to merge multi-source gridded ET products in the Nordic Region during 2003–2018. The ECC estimates of each ET dataset pair calculated by the quadruple collocation approach are used to select the qualified triplets from four products, including FLUXCOM, Global Land Surface Satellite (GLASS), Global Land Evaporation and Amsterdam Model (GLEAM), and Penman-Monteith-Leuning Version 2 (PML-V2). Then the ET merged datasets are generated by weighting TC-based rescaled error variances of the parent datasets through least square merging. Finally, the accuracy of both the parent and the merged datasets are assessed with the Integrated Carbon Observation System (ICOS) flux data in the Nordic Region based on multiple statistical metrics. Results demonstrate that the ECC values provide intuitive evidence for filtering unqualified TC triplets. Both the absolute and relative error variances (signal-to-noise ratio) are considered for ET dataset evaluation. Overall PML-V2 has the best performance among the evaluated four products. Two merged ET datasets with the reference climatology of FLUXCOM outperform all parent products with the lowest errors by using ICOS data as reference among all sites – indicating the feasibility of TC technique for improving ET accuracy in the Nordic Region. This study also analyses the impacts of reference climatology selection on the TC merged results.
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| 3. |
- Speakman, John R., et al.
(författare)
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Total daily energy expenditure has declined over the past three decades due to declining basal expenditure, not reduced activity expenditure
- 2023
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Ingår i: Nature Metabolism. - : NATURE PORTFOLIO. - 2522-5812. ; 5:4, s. 579-588
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Tidskriftsartikel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Obesity is caused by a prolonged positive energy balance(1,2). Whether reduced energy expenditure stemming from reduced activity levels contributes is debated(3,4). Here we show that in both sexes, total energy expenditure (TEE) adjusted for body composition and age declined since the late 1980s, while adjusted activity energy expenditure increased over time. We use the International Atomic Energy Agency Doubly Labelled Water database on energy expenditure of adults in the United States and Europe (n = 4,799) to explore patterns in total (TEE: n = 4,799), basal (BEE: n = 1,432) and physical activity energy expenditure (n = 1,432) over time. In males, adjusted BEE decreased significantly, but in females this did not reach significance. A larger dataset of basal metabolic rate (equivalent to BEE) measurements of 9,912 adults across 163 studies spanning 100 years replicates the decline in BEE in both sexes. We conclude that increasing obesity in the United States/Europe has probably not been fuelled by reduced physical activity leading to lowered TEE. We identify here a decline in adjusted BEE as a previously unrecognized factor.
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| 4. |
- Zhou, Ping, et al.
(författare)
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Molecular characterization of transcriptome-wide interactions between highly pathogenic porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus and porcine alveolar macrophages in vivo
- 2011
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Ingår i: International Journal of Biological Sciences. - 1449-2288. ; 7:7, s. 947-959
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV) infects mainly the porcine alveolar macrophages (PAMs) and causes porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS). Previous studies have analyzed the global gene expression profiles of lung tissue in vivo and PAMs in vitro following infection with PRRSV, however, transcriptome-wide understanding of the interaction between highly pathogenic PRRSV (HP-PRRSV) and PAMs in vivo has not yet been established. In this study, we employed Affymetrix microarrays to investigate the gene expression patterns of PAMs isolated from Tongcheng piglets (a Chinese indigenous breed) after infection with HP-PRRSV. During the infection, Tongcheng piglets exhibited typical clinical signs, e.g. fever, asthma, coughing, anorexia, lethargy and convulsion, but displayed mild regional lung damage at 5 and 7 dpi. Microarray analysis revealed that HP-PRRSV infection has affected PAMs in expression of the important genes involved in cytoskeleton and exocytosis organization, protein degradation and folding, intracellular calcium and zinc homeostasis. Several potential antiviral strategies might be employed in PAMs, including upregulating IFN-induced genes and increasing intracellular zinc ion concentration. And inhibition of the complement system likely attenuated the lung damage during HP-PRRSV infection. Transcriptomic analysis of PAMs in vivo could lead to a better understanding of the HP-PRRSV-host interaction, and to the identification of novel antiviral therapies and genetic components of swine tolerance/susceptibility to HP-PRRS.
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