| 1. |
- Naghavi, Mohsen, et al.
(författare)
-
Global, regional, and national age-sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
- 2015
-
Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 385:9963, s. 117-171
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specifi c all-cause and cause-specifi c mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specifi c all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specifi c causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65.3 years (UI 65.0-65.6) in 1990, to 71.5 years (UI 71.0-71.9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47.5 million (UI 46.8-48.2) to 54.9 million (UI 53.6-56.3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute diff erences between countries decreased but relative diff erences increased. For women aged 25-39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20-49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative diff erences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10.7%, from 4.3 million deaths in 1990 to 4.8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specifi c mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade.
|
|
| 2. |
- Zhang, Sheng, et al.
(författare)
-
Response-surface-model-based system sizing for Nearly/Net zero energy buildings under uncertainty
- 2018
-
Ingår i: Applied Energy. - : Elsevier BV. - 0306-2619 .- 1872-9118. ; 228, s. 1020-1031
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Properly treating uncertainty is critical for robust system sizing of nearly/net zero energy buildings (ZEBs). To treat uncertainty, the conventional method conducts Monte Carlo simulations for thousands of possible design options, which inevitably leads to computation load that is heavy or even impossible to handle. In order to reduce the number of Monte Carlo simulations, this study proposes a response-surface-model-based system sizing method. The response surface models of design criteria (i.e., the annual energy match ratio, self-consumption ratio and initial investment) are established based on Monte Carlo simulations for 29 specific design points which are determined by Box-Behnken design. With the response surface models, the overall performances (i.e., the weighted performance of the design criteria) of all design options (i.e., sizing combinations of photovoltaic, wind turbine and electric storage) are evaluated, and the design option with the maximal overall performance is finally selected. Cases studies with 1331 design options have validated the proposed method for 10,000 randomly produced decision scenarios (i.e., users’ preferences to the design criteria). The results show that the established response surface models reasonably predict the design criteria with errors no greater than 3.5% at a cumulative probability of 95%. The proposed method reduces the number of Monte Carlos simulations by 97.8%, and robustly sorts out top 1.1% design options in expectation. With the largely reduced Monte Carlo simulations and high overall performance of the selected design option, the proposed method provides a practical and efficient means for system sizing of nearly/net ZEBs under uncertainty.
|
|
| 3. |
- Abbafati, Cristiana, et al.
(författare)
-
- 2020
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
|
|
| 4. |
- Pan, Song, et al.
(författare)
-
Cluster analysis for occupant-behavior based electricity load patterns in buildings : a case study in Shanghai residences
- 2017
-
Ingår i: Building Simulation. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1996-3599 .- 1996-8744. ; 10:6, s. 889-898
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In building performance simulation, occupant behavior contributes to large uncertainties, which often lead to considerable discrepancies between actual energy consumption and simulation results. This paper aims to extract occupant-behavior related electricity load patterns using classical K-means clustering approach at the initial investigation stage. Smart-metering data from a case study in Shanghai, China, was used for the load pattern analysis. The electricity load patterns of occupants were examined on a daily/weekly/seasonal basis. According to their load patterns, occupants were categorized as (a) white-collar workers, (b) poor or older families and (c) rich or young families. The daily patterns indicated that electricity use was much more random and fluctuated over a wide range. Most households of the monitored communities consumed relatively-low electricity; the characteristic double peak with higher level of consumption in the morning and evening were only apparent in a relatively small subset of residents (mostly white-collar workers). The weekly analysis found that significant load shifting towards weekend days occurred in the poor or old family group. The electricity saving potential was greatest in the white-collar workers and the rich or young family groups. This study concludes with recommendations to stakeholders utilizing our load profiling results. The research provides a rare insight into the electricity-use-related occupant behaviors of Shanghai residents through the case study of two communities. The findings of the study are also presented in a meaningful way so that they can directly aid the decision-making of governments and other stakeholders interested in energy efficiency. The research results are also relevant to the building energy simulation community as they are derived from observations, and thus can have the potential to improve the efficiency and accuracy of numerical simulation results.
|
|
| 5. |
|
|
| 6. |
- Wang, Haidong, et al.
(författare)
-
Estimates of global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980-2015 : the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015.
- 2016
-
Ingår i: The lancet. HIV. - : Elsevier. - 2352-3018. ; 3:8, s. e361-e387
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Timely assessment of the burden of HIV/AIDS is essential for policy setting and programme evaluation. In this report from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we provide national estimates of levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART), and mortality for 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015.METHODS: For countries without high-quality vital registration data, we estimated prevalence and incidence with data from antenatal care clinics and population-based seroprevalence surveys, and with assumptions by age and sex on initial CD4 distribution at infection, CD4 progression rates (probability of progression from higher to lower CD4 cell-count category), on and off antiretroviral therapy (ART) mortality, and mortality from all other causes. Our estimation strategy links the GBD 2015 assessment of all-cause mortality and estimation of incidence and prevalence so that for each draw from the uncertainty distribution all assumptions used in each step are internally consistent. We estimated incidence, prevalence, and death with GBD versions of the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) and Spectrum software originally developed by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS). We used an open-source version of EPP and recoded Spectrum for speed, and used updated assumptions from systematic reviews of the literature and GBD demographic data. For countries with high-quality vital registration data, we developed the cohort incidence bias adjustment model to estimate HIV incidence and prevalence largely from the number of deaths caused by HIV recorded in cause-of-death statistics. We corrected these statistics for garbage coding and HIV misclassification.FINDINGS: Global HIV incidence reached its peak in 1997, at 3·3 million new infections (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1-3·4 million). Annual incidence has stayed relatively constant at about 2·6 million per year (range 2·5-2·8 million) since 2005, after a period of fast decline between 1997 and 2005. The number of people living with HIV/AIDS has been steadily increasing and reached 38·8 million (95% UI 37·6-40·4 million) in 2015. At the same time, HIV/AIDS mortality has been declining at a steady pace, from a peak of 1·8 million deaths (95% UI 1·7-1·9 million) in 2005, to 1·2 million deaths (1·1-1·3 million) in 2015. We recorded substantial heterogeneity in the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS across countries. Although many countries have experienced decreases in HIV/AIDS mortality and in annual new infections, other countries have had slowdowns or increases in rates of change in annual new infections.INTERPRETATION: Scale-up of ART and prevention of mother-to-child transmission has been one of the great successes of global health in the past two decades. However, in the past decade, progress in reducing new infections has been slow, development assistance for health devoted to HIV has stagnated, and resources for health in low-income countries have grown slowly. Achievement of the new ambitious goals for HIV enshrined in Sustainable Development Goal 3 and the 90-90-90 UNAIDS targets will be challenging, and will need continued efforts from governments and international agencies in the next 15 years to end AIDS by 2030.
|
|
| 7. |
- Wei, Yixuan, et al.
(författare)
-
A review of data-driven approaches for prediction and classification of building energy consumption
- 2018
-
Ingår i: Renewable & sustainable energy reviews. - : Elsevier. - 1364-0321 .- 1879-0690. ; 82:1, s. 1027-1047
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A recent surge of interest in building energy consumption has generated a tremendous amount of energy data, which boosts the data-driven algorithms for broad application throughout the building industry. This article reviews the prevailing data-driven approaches used in building energy analysis under different archetypes and granularities, including those methods for prediction (artificial neural networks, support vector machines, statistical regression, decision tree and genetic algorithm) and those methods for classification (K-mean clustering, self-organizing map and hierarchy clustering). The review results demonstrate that the data-driven approaches have well addressed a large variety of building energy related applications, such as load forecasting and prediction, energy pattern profiling, regional energy-consumption mapping, benchmarking for building stocks, global retrofit strategies and guideline making etc. Significantly, this review refines a few key tasks for modification of the data-driven approaches in the context of application to building energy analysis. The conclusions drawn in this review could facilitate future micro-scale changes of energy use for a particular building through the appropriate retrofit and the inclusion of renewable energy technologies. It also paves an avenue to explore potential in macro-scale energy-reduction with consideration of customer demands. All these will be useful to establish a better long-term strategy for urban sustainability.
|
|
| 8. |
- Wuttke, Matthias, et al.
(författare)
-
A catalog of genetic loci associated with kidney function from analyses of a million individuals
- 2019
-
Ingår i: Nature Genetics. - : NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP. - 1061-4036 .- 1546-1718. ; 51:6, s. 957-972
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is responsible for a public health burden with multi-systemic complications. Through transancestry meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and independent replication (n = 1,046,070), we identified 264 associated loci (166 new). Of these,147 were likely to be relevant for kidney function on the basis of associations with the alternative kidney function marker blood urea nitrogen (n = 416,178). Pathway and enrichment analyses, including mouse models with renal phenotypes, support the kidney as the main target organ. A genetic risk score for lower eGFR was associated with clinically diagnosed CKD in 452,264 independent individuals. Colocalization analyses of associations with eGFR among 783,978 European-ancestry individuals and gene expression across 46 human tissues, including tubulo-interstitial and glomerular kidney compartments, identified 17 genes differentially expressed in kidney. Fine-mapping highlighted missense driver variants in 11 genes and kidney-specific regulatory variants. These results provide a comprehensive priority list of molecular targets for translational research.
|
|
| 9. |
- Zhang, Xingxing, et al.
(författare)
-
Building integrated solar thermal (BIST) technologies and their applications : A review of structural design and architectural integration
- 2015
-
Ingår i: Journal of Fundamentals of Renewable Energy and Applications. - : OMICS Publishing Group. - 2090-4533 .- 2090-4541. ; 5:5, s. 1-21
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Solar energy has enormous potential to meet the majority of present world energy demand by effective integration with local building components. One of the most promising technologies is building integrated solar thermal (BIST) technology. This paper presents a review of the available literature covering various types of BIST technologies and their applications in terms of structural design and architectural integration. The review covers detailed description of BIST systems using air, hydraulic (water/heat pipe/refrigerant) and phase changing materials (PCM) as the working medium. The fundamental structure of BIST and the various specific structures of available BIST in the literature are described. Design criteria and practical operation conditions of BIST systems are illustrated. The state of pilot projects is also fully depicted. Current barriers and future development opportunities are therefore concluded. Based on the thorough review, it is clear that BIST is very promising devices with considerable energy saving prospective and building integration feasibility. This review shall facilitate the development of solar driven service for buildings and help the corresponding saving in fossil fuel consumption and the reduction in carbon emission.
|
|
