| 1. |
- Feng, Ran, et al.
(författare)
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Past terrestrial hydroclimate sensitivity controlled by Earth system feedbacks
- 2022
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Ingår i: Nature Communications. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2041-1723. ; 13:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Despite tectonic conditions and atmospheric CO2 levels (pCO2) similar to those of present-day, geological reconstructions from the mid-Pliocene (3.3-3.0 Ma) document high lake levels in the Sahel and mesic conditions in subtropical Eurasia, suggesting drastic reorganizations of subtropical terrestrial hydroclimate during this interval. Here, using a compilation of proxy data and multi-model paleoclimate simulations, we show that the mid-Pliocene hydroclimate state is not driven by direct CO2 radiative forcing but by a loss of northern high-latitude ice sheets and continental greening. These ice sheet and vegetation changes are long-term Earth system feedbacks to elevated pCO2. Further, the moist conditions in the Sahel and subtropical Eurasia during the mid-Pliocene are a product of enhanced tropospheric humidity and a stationary wave response to the surface warming pattern, which varies strongly with land cover changes. These findings highlight the potential for amplified terrestrial hydroclimate responses over long timescales to a sustained CO2 forcing.
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| 2. |
- Han, Zixuan, et al.
(författare)
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Evaluating the large-scale hydrological cycle response within the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PlioMIP2) ensemble
- 2021
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Ingår i: Climate of the Past. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1814-9324 .- 1814-9332. ; 17:6, s. 2537-2558
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The mid-Pliocene (∼3 Ma) is one of the most recent warm periods with high CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere and resulting high temperatures, and it is often cited as an analog for near-term future climate change. Here, we apply a moisture budget analysis to investigate the response of the large-scale hydrological cycle at low latitudes within a 13-model ensemble from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PlioMIP2). The results show that increased atmospheric moisture content within the mid-Pliocene ensemble (due to the thermodynamic effect) results in wetter conditions over the deep tropics, i.e., the Pacific intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and the Maritime Continent, and drier conditions over the subtropics. Note that the dynamic effect plays a more important role than the thermodynamic effect in regional precipitation minus evaporation (PmE) changes (i.e., northward ITCZ shift and wetter northern Indian Ocean). The thermodynamic effect is offset to some extent by a dynamic effect involving a northward shift of the Hadley circulation that dries the deep tropics and moistens the subtropics in the Northern Hemisphere (i.e., the subtropical Pacific). From the perspective of Earth's energy budget, the enhanced southward cross-equatorial atmospheric transport (0.22 PW), induced by the hemispheric asymmetries of the atmospheric energy, favors an approximately 1∘ northward shift of the ITCZ. The shift of the ITCZ reorganizes atmospheric circulation, favoring a northward shift of the Hadley circulation. In addition, the Walker circulation consistently shifts westward within PlioMIP2 models, leading to wetter conditions over the northern Indian Ocean. The PlioMIP2 ensemble highlights that an imbalance of interhemispheric atmospheric energy during the mid-Pliocene could have led to changes in the dynamic effect, offsetting the thermodynamic effect and, hence, altering mid-Pliocene hydroclimate.
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| 3. |
- Han, Zixuan, et al.
(författare)
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The changes in ENSO-induced tropical Pacific precipitation variability in the past warm and cold climates from the EC-Earth simulations
- 2020
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Ingår i: Climate Dynamics. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0930-7575 .- 1432-0894. ; 55, s. 503-519
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is one of the most significant climate variability signals. Studying the changes in ENSO-induced precipitation variability (ENSO precipitation) in the past climate offers a possibility to a better understanding of how they may change under future climate conditions. This study uses simulations performed with the European community Earth-System Model (EC-Earth) to investigate the relative contributions of dynamic effect (the circulation anomalies together with the climatological specific humidity) and thermodynamic effect (the specific humidity anomalies together with the climatological circulation) on the changes in ENSO precipitation in the past warm and cold climates, represented by the Pliocene and the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), respectively. The results show that the changes in ENSO precipitation are intensified (weakened) over the tropical western Pacific but weakened (intensified) over the tropical central Pacific in Pliocene (LGM) compared with the pre-industrial (PI) simulation. Based on the decomposed moisture budget equation, these changes in ENSO precipitation patterns are highly related to the dynamic effect. The mechanism can be understood as follows: the zonal gradient of the mean sea surface temperature (SST) over the tropical Indo-Pacific is increased (reduced) during the Pliocene (LGM), leading to the strengthening (weakening) of Pacific Walker Circulation as well as a westward (eastward) shift. In the Pliocene, the westward shift of Walker Circulation results in an increased (decreased) ENSO-induced low-level vertical velocity variability in the tropical western Pacific (central Pacific), and, in turn, favoring convergent (divergent) moisture transport through a dynamic process, and then causing intensified (weakened) ENSO precipitation there. The opposite mechanism exists in LGM. These results suggest that changes in the zonal SST gradient over tropical Indo-Pacific under different climate conditions determine the changes in ENSO precipitation through a dynamic process.
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| 4. |
- Weiffenbach, Julia E., et al.
(författare)
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Unraveling the mechanisms and implications of a stronger mid-Pliocene Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in PlioMIP2
- 2023
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Ingår i: Climate of the Past. - : COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH. - 1814-9324 .- 1814-9332. ; 19:1, s. 61-85
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The mid-Pliocene warm period (3.264-3.025 Ma) is the most recent geological period in which the atmospheric CO2 concentration was approximately equal to the concentration we measure today (ca. 400 ppm). Sea surface temperature (SST) proxies indicate above-average warming over the North Atlantic in the mid-Pliocene with respect to the pre-industrial period, which may be linked to an intensified Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Earlier results from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PlioMIP2) show that the ensemble simulates a stronger AMOC in the mid-Pliocene than in the pre-industrial. However, no consistent relationship between the stronger mid-Pliocene AMOC and either the Atlantic northward ocean heat transport (OHT) or average North Atlantic SSTs has been found. In this study, we look further into the drivers and consequences of a stronger AMOC in mid-Pliocene compared to pre-industrial simulations in PlioMIP2. We find that all model simulations with a closed Bering Strait and Canadian Archipelago show reduced freshwater transport from the Arctic Ocean into the North Atlantic. This contributes to an increase in salinity in the subpolar North Atlantic and Labrador Sea that can be linked to the stronger AMOC in the mid-Pliocene. To investigate the dynamics behind the ensembles variable response of the total Atlantic OHT to the stronger AMOC, we separate the Atlantic OHT into two components associated with either the overturning circulation or the wind-driven gyre circulation. While the ensemble mean of the overturning component is increased significantly in magnitude in the mid-Pliocene, it is partly compensated by a reduction in the gyre component in the northern subtropical gyre region. This indicates that the lack of relationship between the total OHT and AMOC is due to changes in OHT by the subtropical gyre. The overturning and gyre components should therefore be considered separately to gain a more complete understanding of the OHT response to a stronger mid-Pliocene AMOC. In addition, we show that the AMOC exerts a stronger influence on North Atlantic SSTs in the mid-Pliocene than in the pre-industrial, providing a possible explanation for the improved agreement of the PlioMIP2 ensemble mean SSTs with reconstructions in the North Atlantic.
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| 5. |
- Zhang, Qiong, et al.
(författare)
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Simulating the mid-Holocene, last interglacial and mid-Pliocene climate with EC-Earth3-LR
- 2021
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Ingår i: Geoscientific Model Development. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1991-959X .- 1991-9603. ; 14:2, s. 1147-1169
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- As global warming is proceeding due to rising greenhouse gas concentrations, the Earth system moves towards climate states that challenge adaptation. Past Earth system states are offering possible modelling systems for the global warming of the coming decades. These include the climate of the mid-Pliocene (similar to 3 Ma), the last interglacial (similar to 129-116 ka) and the mid-Holocene (similar to 6 ka). The simulations for these past warm periods are the key experiments in the Paleoclimate Model Intercomparison Project (PMIP) phase 4, contributing to phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Paleoclimate modelling has long been regarded as a robust out-of-sample test bed of the climate models used to project future climate changes. Here, we document the model setup for PMIP4 experiments with EC-Earth3-LR and present the large-scale features from the simulations for the mid-Holocene, the last interglacial and the mid-Pliocene. Using the pre-industrial climate as a reference state, we show global temperature changes, large-scale Hadley circulation and Walker circulation, polar warming, global monsoons and the climate variability modes - El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). EC-Earth3-LR simulates reasonable climate responses during past warm periods, as shown in the other PMIP4-CMIP6 model ensemble. The systematic comparison of these climate changes in past three warm periods in an individual model demonstrates the model's ability to capture the climate response under different climate forcings, providing potential implications for confidence in future projections with the EC-Earth model.
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| 6. |
- Han, Zixuan, et al.
(författare)
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Changes in Sahel summer rainfall in a global warming climate : contrasting the mid-Pliocene and future regional hydrological cycles
- 2023
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Ingår i: Climate Dynamics. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0930-7575 .- 1432-0894. ; 61:3-4, s. 1353-1370
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The evolution of Sahel summer rainfall in the context of global warming is a severe socio-economic concern because of its widespread influences on local agriculture, water resource management, food security, infrastructure planning, and ecosystems. Based on the mid-Pliocene simulations from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 and the historical simulations and shared socio-economic pathway 5–8.5 experiments from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6, the present study contrasts the Sahel summer rainfall changes between the past mid-Pliocene and near future global warming climates. The results show that the Western African summer monsoon (WASM) circulation, closely linked with the Sahel summer rainfall change, tends to strengthen in both the past and future global warming climates, but the monsoonal circulation strengthening is much more intense in the past warm period than in the projected warm future. This causes that the multi-model ensemble (MME) mean increase ratio of Sahel summer rainfall in the past warming climate is about twice to three times larger than that in the future warming climate for the same increase of global mean surface temperature (the regional rainfall increase ratio in the MME mean: about 19.6% per one degree Celsius of global warming in the mid-Pliocene simulations versus about 7.7% per one degree Celsius of global warming in the SSP5-8.5 future projections). Such a striking discrepancy in the regional circulation and hydrological cycle changes is mainly attributed to a dramatically stronger warming over the Canadian Archipelago and Greenland during the mid-Pliocene warm period relative to the projected near future. The more significant northern high-latitude warming during the mid-Pliocene enhances the meridional temperature gradient between the extratropical and tropical regions, which could induce an excessive northward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and a stronger WASM, and thus result in a more intense hydrological cycle around the Sahel region. Our results highlight that besides the global mean temperature increase, meridional warming patterns are also essential for the changes of WASM and regional hydrological cycle in a warmer world. Implications for projecting the regional monsoon and hydrological cycle changes at longer time scales than in the near future are discussed.
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| 7. |
- Han, Zixuan, et al.
(författare)
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Impacts of Mid-Pliocene Ice Sheets and Vegetation on Afro-Asian Summer Monsoon Rainfall Revealed by EC-Earth Simulations
- 2024
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Ingår i: Geophysical Research Letters. - 0094-8276 .- 1944-8007. ; 51:2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The impact of mid-Pliocene boundary conditions on Afro-Asian summer monsoon (AfroASM) rainfall is examined using the fully coupled Earth System Model EC-Earth3-LR. Our focus lies on the effects of varying CO2 concentration, diminished ice sheets and vegetation dynamics. We find that the enhanced AfroASM rainfall is predominantly caused by the “warmer-gets-wetter” mechanism due to elevated CO2 levels. Additionally, the ice sheet, similar in size to that of the mid-Pliocene era, creates several indirect effects. These include sea ice-albedo feedback and inter-hemispheric atmosphere energy transport. Such influences result in the southward shift of Hadley circulation and formation of Pacific-Japan pattern, leading to reduced rainfall in North African and South Asian monsoon regions but increased rainfall in East Asian monsoon region. Interestingly, while dynamic vegetation feedback has a minimal direct effect on AfroASM rainfall, it significantly influences rainfall in the mid-high latitudes of the North Hemisphere by enhancing water vapor feedback.
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| 8. |
- Han, Zixuan, et al.
(författare)
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Thermodynamic and dynamic effects of increased moisture sources over the Tropical Indian Ocean in recent decades
- 2019
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Ingår i: Climate Dynamics. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0930-7575 .- 1432-0894. ; 53:11, s. 7081-7096
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In the present work, the mechanisms for the changes in moisture sources (evaporation minus precipitation; EmP) during boreal summer (May-September) are explored over the tropical Indian Ocean during 1979-2016. We apply a moisture budget analysis to quantify the thermodynamic and dynamic effects. Our results show that the EmP in the tropical central-eastern and southwestern Indian Oceans experienced significant increasing trends during boreal summer. The increased EmP in the tropical central-eastern Indian Ocean is due to the enhanced dynamic divergence (account for approximately 51%), while a stronger dynamic advection contributes more moisture supply to the southwestern Indian Ocean (account for approximately 34%). We find that during recent decades, the enhanced east-west thermal gradient in the Pacific strengthens the Walker Circulation, which leads to a westward shift in convection over the Indian Ocean warm pool, resulting in weakened convection and ascent over the tropical central-eastern Indian Ocean. The weakened convection leads to an anomalous low-level atmospheric divergent circulation, which intensifies the dynamic divergence contributing to the enhanced EmP over the tropical central-eastern Indian Ocean. Additionally, the warming climate during recent decades also increases the land-sea thermal contrast in the vicinity of the Indian Ocean, which enhances the southeastern wind in the low-level troposphere and leads to an enhanced EmP over the southwestern Indian Ocean.
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| 9. |
- Yang, Junhuai, et al.
(författare)
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Holocene forcing of aeolian dust activity over the Tibetan Plateau and its surroundings
- 2024
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Ingår i: Global and Planetary Change. - 0921-8181 .- 1872-6364. ; 235
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Aeolian deposits on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and its surroundings provide crucial source materials for the Asian dust cycle, which significantly affects Asian and global ecosystems and climate. However, it is unclear how the dust dynamics of the TP and its surroundings are linked to Earth's climate system. To address this issue, we examined the grain size and accumulation rate of six Holocene aeolian sections on the southern TP (a new, well-dated high-resolution section, two relatively low-resolution sections, and three published sections) and combined them with equivalent aeolian sedimentary records from eastern arid central Asia. The results suggest that dust activity in both regions decreased during the early to middle Holocene and then increased in the late Holocene. We hypothesize that the primary drivers of Holocene dust activity in both regions are similar. Cold-season insolation, as the primary driving factor, combined with ice volume and atmospheric CO2 concentration, collectively controlled the regional temperature, which determined the near-surface wind intensity via its influence on the TP High and Siberian High, respectively, thus ultimately controlling the regional dust activity. In this context, we project that dust activity on the TP and its neighboring areas will decrease under warm scenarios in the 21st century. Overall, our findings provide an extensive overview of the past, present, and future scenarios of Asian dust activity, especially of the TP dust.
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