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Sökning: WFRF:(Tunstall Pedoe Hugh) > (2015-2019)

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1.
  • Gregson, J., et al. (författare)
  • Cardiovascular Risk Factors Associated With Venous Thromboembolism
  • 2019
  • Ingår i: JAMA Cardiology. - : AMER MEDICAL ASSOC. - 0965-2590 .- 2380-6583 .- 2380-6591. ; 4:2, s. 163-173
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • IMPORTANCE It is uncertain to what extent established cardiovascular risk factors are associated with venous thromboembolism (VTE). OBJECTIVE To estimate the associations of major cardiovascular risk factors with VTE, ie, deep vein thrombosis and pulmonary embolism. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS This study included individual participant data mostly from essentially population-based cohort studies from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration (ERFC; 731728 participants; 75 cohorts; years of baseline surveys, February 1960 to June 2008; latest date of follow-up, December 2015) and the UK Biobank (421537 participants; years of baseline surveys, March 2006 to September 2010; latest date of follow-up, February 2016). Participants without cardiovascular disease at baseline were included. Data were analyzed from June 2017 to September 2018. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Hazard ratios (HRs) per 1-SD higher usual risk factor levels (or presence/absence). Incident fatal outcomes in ERFC (VTE, 1041; coronary heart disease [CND], 25131) and incident fatal/nonfatal outcomes in UK Biobank (VTE, 2321; CHD, 3385). Hazard ratios were adjusted for age, sex, smoking status, diabetes, and body mass index (BMI). RESULTS Of the 731728 participants from the ERFC. 403 396 (55.1%) were female, and the mean (SD) age at the time of the survey was 51.9 (9.0) years; of the 421537 participants from the UK Biobank, 233 699 (55.4%) were female, and the mean (SD) age at the time of the survey was 56.4 (8.1) years. Risk factors for VTE included older age (ERFC: HR per decade, 2.67; 95% CI, 2.45-2.91; UK Biobank: HR, 1.81; 95% CI, 1.71-1.92), current smoking (ERFC: HR, 1.38; 95% CI, 1.20-1.58; UK Biobank: HR, 1.23; 95% CI, 1.08-1.40), and BMI (ERFC: HR per 1-SD higher BMI, 1.43; 95% CI, 1.35-1.50; UK Biobank: HR, 1.37; 95% CI, 1.32-1.41). For these factors, there were similar HRs for pulmonary embolism and deep vein thrombosis in UK Biobank (except adiposity was more strongly associated with pulmonary embolism) and similar HRs for unprovoked vs provoked VTE. Apart from adiposity, these risk factors were less strongly associated with VTE than CHD. There were inconsistent associations of VTEs with diabetes and blood pressure across ERFC and UK Biobank, and there was limited ability to study lipid and inflammation markers. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Older age, smoking, and adiposity were consistently associated with higher VTE risk.
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2.
  • Marklund, Matti, et al. (författare)
  • Biomarkers of Dietary Omega-6 Fatty Acids and Incident Cardiovascular Disease and Mortality : An Individual-Level Pooled Analysis of 30 Cohort Studies
  • 2019
  • Ingår i: Circulation. - : American Heart Association. - 0009-7322 .- 1524-4539. ; 139:21, s. 2422-2436
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background:Global dietary recommendations for and cardiovascular effects of linoleic acid, the major dietary omega-6 fatty acid, and its major metabolite, arachidonic acid, remain controversial. To address this uncertainty and inform international recommendations, we evaluated how in vivo circulating and tissue levels of linoleic acid (LA) and arachidonic acid (AA) relate to incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) across multiple international studies.Methods:We performed harmonized, de novo, individual-level analyses in a global consortium of 30 prospective observational studies from 13 countries. Multivariable-adjusted associations of circulating and adipose tissue LA and AA biomarkers with incident total CVD and subtypes (coronary heart disease, ischemic stroke, cardiovascular mortality) were investigated according to a prespecified analytic plan. Levels of LA and AA, measured as the percentage of total fatty acids, were evaluated linearly according to their interquintile range (ie, the range between the midpoint of the first and fifth quintiles), and categorically by quintiles. Study-specific results were pooled using inverse-variance-weighted meta-analysis. Heterogeneity was explored by age, sex, race, diabetes mellitus, statin use, aspirin use, omega-3 levels, and fatty acid desaturase 1 genotype (when available).Results:In 30 prospective studies with medians of follow-up ranging 2.5 to 31.9 years, 15198 incident cardiovascular events occurred among 68659 participants. Higher levels of LA were significantly associated with lower risks of total CVD, cardiovascular mortality, and ischemic stroke, with hazard ratios per interquintile range of 0.93 (95% CI, 0.88-0.99), 0.78 (0.70-0.85), and 0.88 (0.79-0.98), respectively, and nonsignificantly with lower coronary heart disease risk (0.94; 0.88-1.00). Relationships were similar for LA evaluated across quintiles. AA levels were not associated with higher risk of cardiovascular outcomes; in a comparison of extreme quintiles, higher levels were associated with lower risk of total CVD (0.92; 0.86-0.99). No consistent heterogeneity by population subgroups was identified in the observed relationships.Conclusions:In pooled global analyses, higher in vivo circulating and tissue levels of LA and possibly AA were associated with lower risk of major cardiovascular events. These results support a favorable role for LA in CVD prevention.
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3.
  • Brunner, Fabian J., et al. (författare)
  • Application of non-HDL cholesterol for population-based cardiovascular risk stratification : results from the Multinational Cardiovascular Risk Consortium
  • 2019
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - : ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 394:10215, s. 2173-2183
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background The relevance of blood lipid concentrations to long-term incidence of cardiovascular disease and the relevance of lipid-lowering therapy for cardiovascular disease outcomes is unclear. We investigated the cardiovascular disease risk associated with the full spectrum of bloodstream non-HDL cholesterol concentrations. We also created an easy-to-use tool to estimate the long-term probabilities for a cardiovascular disease event associated with non-HDL cholesterol and modelled its risk reduction by lipid-lowering treatment. Methods In this risk-evaluation and risk-modelling study, we used Multinational Cardiovascular Risk Consortium data from 19 countries across Europe, Australia, and North America. Individuals without prevalent cardiovascular disease at baseline and with robust available data on cardiovascular disease outcomes were included. The primary composite endpoint of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease was defined as the occurrence of the coronary heart disease event or ischaemic stroke. Sex-specific multivariable analyses were computed using non-HDL cholesterol categories according to the European guideline thresholds, adjusted for age, sex, cohort, and classical modifiable cardiovascular risk factors. In a derivation and validation design, we created a tool to estimate the probabilities of a cardiovascular disease event by the age of 75 years, dependent on age, sex, and risk factors, and the associated modelled risk reduction, assuming a 50% reduction of non-HDL cholesterol. Findings Of the 524 444 individuals in the 44 cohorts in the Consortium database, we identified 398 846 individuals belonging to 38 cohorts (184 055 [48.7%] women; median age 51.0 years [IQR 40.7-59.7]). 199 415 individuals were included in the derivation cohort (91 786 [48.4%] women) and 199 431 (92 269 [49.1%] women) in the validation cohort. During a maximum follow-up of 43.6 years (median 13.5 years, IQR 7.0-20.1), 54 542 cardiovascular endpoints occurred. Incidence curve analyses showed progressively higher 30-year cardiovascular disease eventrates for increasing non-HDL cholesterol categories (from 7.7% for non-HDL cholesterol <2.6 mmol/L to 33.7% for >= 5.7 mmol/L in women and from 12.8% to 43.6% in men; p<0.0001). Multivariable adjusted Cox models with non-HDL cholesterol lower than 2.6 mmol/L as reference showed an increase in the association between non-HDL cholesterol concentration and cardiovascular disease for both sexes (from hazard ratio 1.1, 95% CI 1.0-1.3 for nonHDL cholesterol 2.6 to <3.7 mmol/L to 1.9, 1.6-2.2 for >= 5.7 mmol/L in women and from 1.1, 1.0-1.3 to 2.3, 2.0-2.5 in men). The derived tool allowed the estimation of cardiovascular disease event probabilities specific for non-HDL cholesterol with high comparability between the derivation and validation cohorts as reflected by smooth calibration curves analyses and a root mean square error lower than 1% for the estimated probabilities of cardiovascular disease. A 50% reduction of non-HDL cholesterol concentrations was associated with reduced risk of a cardiovascular disease event by the age of 75 years, and this risk reduction was greater the earlier cholesterol concentrations were reduced. Interpretation Non-HDL cholesterol concentrations in blood are strongly associated with long-term risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease. We provide a simple tool for individual long-term risk assessment and the potential benefit of early lipid-lowering intervention. These data could be useful for physician-patient communication about primary prevention strategies.
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4.
  • Ferrario, Marco M., et al. (författare)
  • Determinants of social inequalities in stroke incidence across Europe : a collaborative analysis of 126 635 individuals from 48 cohort studies
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health. - : BMJ PUBLISHING GROUP. - 0143-005X .- 1470-2738. ; 71:12, s. 1210-1216
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background: Knowledge on the origins of the social gradient in stroke incidence in different populations is limited. This study aims to estimate the burden of educational class inequalities in stroke incidence and to assess the contribution of risk factors in determining these inequalities across Europe.Materials and methods: The MORGAM (MOnica Risk, Genetics, Archiving and Monograph) Study comprises 48 cohorts recruited mostly in the 1980s and 1990s in four European regions using standardised procedures for baseline risk factor assessment and fatal and non-fatal stroke ascertainment and adjudication during follow-up. Among the 126 635 middle-aged participants, initially free of cardiovascular diseases, generating 3788 first stroke events during a median follow-up of 10 years, we estimated differences in stroke rates and HRs for the least versus the most educated individuals.Results: Compared with their most educated counterparts, the overall age-adjusted excess hazard for stroke was 1.54 (95% CI 1.25 to 1.91) and 1.41 (95% CI 1.16 to 1.71) in least educated men and women, respectively, with little heterogeneity across populations. Educational class inequalities accounted for 86–413 and 78–156 additional stroke events per 100 000 person-years in the least compared with most educated men and women, respectively. The additional events were equivalent to 47%–130% and 40%–89% of the average incidence rates. Inequalities in risk factors accounted for 45%–70% of the social gap in incidence in the Nordic countries, the UK and Lithuania-Kaunas (men), but for no more than 17% in Central and South Europe. The major contributors were cigarette smoking, alcohol intake and body mass index.Conclusions: Social inequalities in stroke incidence contribute substantially to the disease rates in Europe. Healthier lifestyles in the most disadvantaged individuals should have a prominent impact in reducing both inequalities and the stroke burden.
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5.
  • Pennells, Lisa, et al. (författare)
  • Equalization of four cardiovascular risk algorithms after systematic recalibration : individual-participant meta-analysis of 86 prospective studies
  • 2019
  • Ingår i: European Heart Journal. - : Oxford University Press. - 0195-668X .- 1522-9645. ; 40:7, s. 621-
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Aims: There is debate about the optimum algorithm for cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk estimation. We conducted head-to-head comparisons of four algorithms recommended by primary prevention guidelines, before and after ‘recalibration’, a method that adapts risk algorithms to take account of differences in the risk characteristics of the populations being studied.Methods and results: Using individual-participant data on 360 737 participants without CVD at baseline in 86 prospective studies from 22 countries, we compared the Framingham risk score (FRS), Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE), pooled cohort equations (PCE), and Reynolds risk score (RRS). We calculated measures of risk discrimination and calibration, and modelled clinical implications of initiating statin therapy in people judged to be at ‘high’ 10 year CVD risk. Original risk algorithms were recalibrated using the risk factor profile and CVD incidence of target populations. The four algorithms had similar risk discrimination. Before recalibration, FRS, SCORE, and PCE over-predicted CVD risk on average by 10%, 52%, and 41%, respectively, whereas RRS under-predicted by 10%. Original versions of algorithms classified 29–39% of individuals aged ≥40 years as high risk. By contrast, recalibration reduced this proportion to 22–24% for every algorithm. We estimated that to prevent one CVD event, it would be necessary to initiate statin therapy in 44–51 such individuals using original algorithms, in contrast to 37–39 individuals with recalibrated algorithms.Conclusion: Before recalibration, the clinical performance of four widely used CVD risk algorithms varied substantially. By contrast, simple recalibration nearly equalized their performance and improved modelled targeting of preventive action to clinical need.
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6.
  • Veronesi, Giovanni, et al. (författare)
  • Combined effect of educational status and cardiovascular risk factors on the incidence of coronary heart disease and stroke in European cohorts : implications for prevention
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: European Journal of Preventive Cardiology. - 2047-4873 .- 2047-4881. ; 24:4, s. 437-445
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background: The combined effect of social status and risk factors on the absolute risk of cardiovascular disease has been insufficiently investigated, but results provide guidance on who could benefit most through prevention.Methods: We followed 77,918 cardiovascular disease-free individuals aged 35-74 years at baseline, from 38 cohorts covering Nordic and Baltic countries, the UK and Central Europe, for a median of 12 years. Using Fine-Gray models in a competing-risks framework we estimated the effect of the interaction of education with smoking, blood pressure and body weight on the cumulative risk of incident acute coronary heart disease and stroke.Results: Compared with more educated smokers, the less educated had an added increase in absolute risk of cardiovascular disease of 3.1% ( 95% confidence interval+0.1%, +6.2%) in men and of 1.5% ( = 1.9%, +5.0%) in women, consistent across smoking categories. Conversely, the interaction was negative for overweight: -2.6% ( 95% CI: -5.6%, +0.3%) and obese: -3.6% ( -7.6%, +0.4%) men, suggesting that the more educated would benefit more from the same reduction in body weight. A weaker interaction was observed for body weight in women, and for blood pressure in both genders. Less educated men and women with a cluster of two or more risk factors had an added cardiovascular disease risk of 3.6% ( +0.1%, +7.0%) and of 2.6% ( - 0.5%, +5.6%), respectively, compared with their more educated counterparts.Conclusions: Socially disadvantaged subjects have more to gain from lifestyle and blood pressure modification, hopefully reducing both their risk and also social inequality in disease.
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7.
  • Veronesi, Giovanni, et al. (författare)
  • Educational class inequalities in the incidence of coronary heart disease in Europe
  • 2016
  • Ingår i: Heart. - 1355-6037 .- 1468-201X. ; 102:12, s. 958-965
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Objective: To estimate the burden of social inequalities in coronary heart disease (CHD) and to identify their major determinants in 15 European populations.Methods: The MORGAM (MOnica Risk, Genetics, Archiving and Monograph) study comprised 49 cohorts of middle-aged European adults free of CHD (110 928 individuals) recruited mostly in the mid-1980s and 1990s, with comparable assessment of baseline risk and follow-up procedures. We derived three educational classes accounting for birth cohorts and used regression-based inequality measures of absolute differences in CHD rates and HRs (ie, Relative Index of Inequality, RII) for the least versus the most educated individuals.Results: N=6522 first CHD events occurred during a median follow-up of 12 years. Educational class inequalities accounted for 343 and 170 additional CHD events per 100 000 person-years in the least educated men and women compared with the most educated, respectively. These figures corresponded to 48% and 71% of the average event rates in each gender group. Inequalities in CHD mortality were mainly driven by incidence in the Nordic countries, Scotland and Lithuania, and by 28-day case-fatality in the remaining central/South European populations. The pooled RIIs were 1.6 (95% CI 1.4 to 1.8) in men and 2.0 (1.7 to 2.4) in women, consistently across population. Risk factors accounted for a third of inequalities in CHD incidence; smoking was the major mediator in men, and High-Density-Lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol in women.Conclusions: Social inequalities in CHD are still widespread in Europe. Since the major determinants of inequalities followed geographical and gender-specific patterns, European-level interventions should be tailored across different European regions.
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