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- Berhane, Yemane, et al.
(författare)
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A rural Ethiopian population undergoing epidemiological transition over a generation : Butajira from 1987 to 2004
- 2008
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Ingår i: Scandinavian Journal of Public Health. - : SAGE Publications. - 1403-4948 .- 1651-1905. ; 36:4, s. 436-441
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Aims: To describe the epidemiological development of a rural Ethiopian population from 1987 to 2004 in terms of mortality and associated sociodemographic factors. Methods: A rural population comprising 10 communities was defined in 1987 and has since been followed by means of regular household visits. After an initial census, births, deaths and migration events were recorded, together with key background factors, on an open cohort basis. Over 97,000 individuals were observed during a total of over 700,000 person years. Results: The initial population of 28,614 increased by an average of 3.64% annually to 54,426 from 1987 to 2004, and also grew older on average. Birth and mortality rates fell, but were still subject to short-term variation due to external factors. Overall mortality was 13.5 per 1000 person years. Increasing mortality in some adult age groups was consistent with increasing AIDS-related deaths, but a new local hospital in 2002 may have contributed to later falls in overall mortality. Sex, age group, time period, literacy, water source, house ownership and distance to town were all significantly associated with mortality differentials. Conclusions: This population has undergone a complex epidemiological transition during a generation. Detailed long-term surveillance of this kind is essential for describing such processes. Many factors that significantly affect mortality cannot be directly controlled by the health sector and will only improve with general development.
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- Byass, Peter, et al.
(författare)
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Assessing the repeatability of verbal autopsy for determining cause of death : two case studies among women of reproductive age in Burkina Faso and Indonesia
- 2009
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Ingår i: Population Health Metrics. - : BioMed Central (BMC). - 1478-7954. ; 7:1, s. 6-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Verbal autopsy (VA) is an established tool for assessing cause-specific mortality patterns in communities where deaths are not routinely medically certified, and is an important source of data on deaths among the poorer half of the world's population. However, the repeatability of the VA process has never been investigated, even though it is an important factor in its overall validity. This study analyses repeatability in terms of the overall VA process (from interview to cause-specific mortality fractions (CSMF)), as well as specifically for interview material and individual causes of death, using data from Burkina Faso and Indonesia.METHODS: Two series of repeated VA interviews relating to women of reproductive age in Burkina Faso (n = 91) and Indonesia (n = 116) were analysed for repeatability in terms of interview material, individual causes of death and CSMFs. All the VA data were interpreted using the InterVA-M model, which provides 100% intrinsic repeatability for interpretation, and thus eliminated the need to consider variations or repeatability in physician coding.RESULTS: The repeatability of the overall VA process from interview to CSMFs was good in both countries. Repeatability was moderate in the interview material, and lower in terms of individual causes of death. Burkinabé data were less repeatable than Indonesian, and repeatability also declined with longer recall periods between the death and interview, particularly after two years.CONCLUSION: While these analyses do not address the validity of the VA process in absolute terms, repeatability is a prerequisite for intrinsic validity. This study thus adds new understanding to the quest for reliable cause of death assessment in communities lacking routine medical certification of deaths, and confirms the status of VA as an important and reliable tool at the community level, but perhaps less so at the individual level.
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- Byass, Peter
(författare)
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Climate change and population health in Africa : where are the scientists?
- 2009
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Ingår i: Global Health Action. - : CoAction Publishing. - 1654-9716 .- 1654-9880. ; 2, s. 173-176
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Despite a growing awareness of Africans' vulnerability to climate change, there is relatively little empirical evidence published about the effects of climate on population health in Africa. This review brings together some of the generalised predictions about the potential continent-wide effects of climate change with examples of the relatively few locally documented population studies in which climate change and health interact. Although ecologically determined diseases such as malaria are obvious candidates for susceptibility to climate change, wider health effects also need to be considered, particularly among populations where adequacy of food and water supplies may already be marginal.
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- Byass, Peter, et al.
(författare)
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DSS and DHS : longitudinal and cross-sectional viewpoints on child and adolescent mortality in Ethiopia
- 2007
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Ingår i: Population Health Metrics. - : BioMed Central (BMC). - 1478-7954. ; 5:1, s. Article nr 12-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: In countries where routine vital registration data are scarce, Demographic Surveillance Sites (DSS: locally defined populations under longitudinal surveillance for vital events and other characteristics) and Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS: periodic national cluster samples responding to cross-sectional surveys) have become standard approaches for gathering at least some data. This paper aims to compare DSS and DHS approaches, seeing how they complement each other in the specific instance of child and adolescent mortality in Ethiopia.METHODS: Data from the Butajira DSS 1987-2004 and the Ethiopia DHS rounds for 2000 and 2005 formed the basis of comparative analyses of mortality rates among those aged under 20 years, using Poisson regression models for adjusted rate ratios.RESULTS: Patterns of mortality over time were broadly comparable using DSS and DHS approaches. DSS data were more susceptible to local epidemic variations, while DHS data tended to smooth out local variation, and be more subject to recall bias.CONCLUSION: Both DSS and DHS approaches to mortality surveillance gave similar overall results, but both showed method-dependent advantages and disadvantages. In many settings, this kind of joint-source data analysis could offer significant added value to results.
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- Byass, Peter
(författare)
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Epidemiology without borders : an anational view of global health
- 2009
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Ingår i: Global Health Action. - : CoAction Publishing. - 1654-9716 .- 1654-9880. ; 2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Most analyses of global health use country as a unit of observation, not least because countries are intrinsic to health services and to many international organisations. However, this can mask geographical influences on population health, which do not respect political boundaries.METHODS: A global anational database was constructed with one degree cells of latitude and longitude, and used to calculate densities for population and key health indicators. These data were aggregated into 240 15 degrees ansectors, 171 of which were populated. Differences in ansector rank orders between population density and health outcomes (infant, maternal and HIV-related deaths and income) were calculated and mapped as quintiles.FINDINGS: Individual ansectors contained parts of 1-21 countries. Mapping by ansector showed that the four outcomes analysed were strongly geographically correlated. Sub-Saharan Africa was consistently disadvantaged in terms of health outcomes, while the Indian sub-continent was at an advantage in terms of HIV mortality, despite poverty.INTERPRETATION: Although in most cases it makes sense to analyse health on a national basis, these findings highlight the often unquestioned assumptions involved in doing so. Even if global patterns of health do not turn out so differently when analysed anationally, some major effects on health, such as climate change, are not nationally based, and should not necessarily be nationally analysed. Progress towards Millennium Development Goals must be evaluated on a population basis, rather than by counting countries achieving targets. Data files are available in Excel format and attached as separate files to this paper (see Supplementary files under Reading Tools online).
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