| 1. |
- Brand, Judith, 1984-, et al.
(författare)
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Maternal smoking during pregnancy and fractures in offspring : national register based sibling comparison study
- 2020
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Ingår i: The BMJ. - : BMJ Publishing Group Ltd. - 1756-1833. ; 368
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- OBJECTIVE: To study the impact of maternal smoking during pregnancy on fractures in offspring during different developmental stages of life.DESIGN: National register based birth cohort study with a sibling comparison design.SETTING: Sweden.PARTICIPANTS: 1 680 307 people born in Sweden between 1983 and 2000 to women who smoked (n=377 367, 22.5%) and did not smoke (n=1 302 940) in early pregnancy. Follow-up was until 31 December 2014.MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Fractures by attained age up to 32 years.RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 21.1 years, 377 970 fractures were observed (the overall incidence rate for fracture standardised by calendar year of birth was 11.8 per 1000 person years). The association between maternal smoking during pregnancy and risk of fracture in offspring differed by attained age. Maternal smoking was associated with a higher rate of fractures in offspring before 1 year of age in the entire cohort (birth year standardised fracture rates in those exposed and unexposed to maternal smoking were 1.59 and 1.28 per 1000 person years, respectively). After adjustment for potential confounders the hazard ratio for maternal smoking compared with no smoking was 1.27 (95% confidence interval 1.12 to 1.45). This association followed a dose dependent pattern (compared with no smoking, hazard ratios for 1-9 cigarettes/day and >= 10 cigarettes/day were 1.20 (95% confidence interval 1.03 to 1.39) and 1.41 (1.18 to 1.69), respectively) and persisted in within-sibship comparisons although with wider confidence intervals (compared with no smoking, 1.58 (1.01 to 2.46)). Maternal smoking during pregnancy was also associated with an increased fracture incidence in offspring from age 5 to 32 years in whole cohort analyses, but these associations did not follow a dose dependent gradient. In within-sibship analyses, which controls for confounding by measured and unmeasured shared familial factors, corresponding point estimates were all close to null. Maternal smoking was not associated with risk of fracture in offspring between the ages of 1 and 5 years in any of the models.CONCLUSION: Prenatal exposure to maternal smoking is associated with an increased rate of fracture during the first year of life but does not seem to have a long lasting biological influence on fractures later in childhood and up to early adulthood.
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| 2. |
- Cao, Yang, Associate Professor, 1972-, et al.
(författare)
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COVID-19 case-fatality rate and demographic and socioeconomic influencers : worldwide spatial regression analysis based on country-level data
- 2020
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Ingår i: BMJ Open. - : BMJ Publishing Group Ltd. - 2044-6055. ; 10:11
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- OBJECTIVE: To investigate the influence of demographic and socioeconomic factors on the COVID-19 case-fatality rate (CFR) globally.DESIGN: Publicly available register-based ecological study.SETTING: Two hundred and nine countries/territories in the world.PARTICIPANTS: Aggregated data including 10 445 656 confirmed COVID-19 cases.PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: COVID-19 CFR and crude cause-specific death rate were calculated using country-level data from the Our World in Data website.RESULTS: The average of country/territory-specific COVID-19 CFR is about 2%-3% worldwide and higher than previously reported at 0.7%-1.3%. A doubling in size of a population is associated with a 0.48% (95% CI 0.25% to 0.70%) increase in COVID-19 CFR, and a doubling in the proportion of female smokers is associated with a 0.55% (95% CI 0.09% to 1.02%) increase in COVID-19 CFR. The open testing policies are associated with a 2.23% (95% CI 0.21% to 4.25%) decrease in CFR. The strictness of anti-COVID-19 measures was not statistically significantly associated with CFR overall, but the higher Stringency Index was associated with higher CFR in higher-income countries with active testing policies (regression coefficient beta=0.14, 95% CI 0.01 to 0.27). Inverse associations were found between cardiovascular disease death rate and diabetes prevalence and CFR.CONCLUSION: The association between population size and COVID-19 CFR may imply the healthcare strain and lower treatment efficiency in countries with large populations. The observed association between smoking in women and COVID-19 CFR might be due to the finding that the proportion of female smokers reflected broadly the income level of a country. When testing is warranted and healthcare resources are sufficient, strict quarantine and/or lockdown measures might result in excess deaths in underprivileged populations. Spatial dependence and temporal trends in the data should be taken into account in global joint strategy and/or policy making against the COVID-19 pandemic.
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| 3. |
- Han, Hedong, et al.
(författare)
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Morbid obesity is adversely associated with perioperative outcomes inpatients undergoing robot-assisted laparoscopic radical prostatectomy
- 2020
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Ingår i: Canadian Urological Association Journal (CUAJ). - : Canadian Medical Association. - 1911-6470 .- 1920-1214. ; 14:11, s. E574-E581
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Introduction: Robot-assisted laparoscopic radical prostatectomy (RALRP) may be more challenging in obese individuals. This study aimed to evaluate whether obesity had an adverse effect on perioperative outcomes following RALRP.Methods: Hospitalized patients who underwent RAL-RP from 2008-2014 were identified using the National Inpatient Sample database. We grouped RALRP patients into non-obese, obesity class I-II, and obesity class III (morbid obesity). Rates of blood transfusion, intraoperative and postoperative complications, in-hospital mortality, prolonged length of stay, and total costs were compared among the three groups by univariate regression, multivariate regression, and propensity score weighting analysis.Results: Of 53 301 patients identified, 48 725 were non-obese, 3572 were diagnosed with obesity class I-II, and 1004 were diagnosed with morbid obesity. Compared to non-obesity (7.62%), overall postoperative complications were commonly observed in obesity class I-II (10.55%) and morbid obesity (17.11%). Multivariable analyses suggested that morbid obesity was associated with increased overall postoperative (odds ratio PRI 2.00, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.65-2.42), cardiac (OR 1.63, 95% CI 1.03-2.58), respiratory (OR 4.03, 95% CI 3.04-5.36), genitourinary (OR 1.77, 95% CI 1.08-2.90), miscellaneous medical (OR 1.94, 95% CI 1.58-2.39) complications, prolonged hospitalization (OR 1.86, 95% CI 1.57-2.21), arid 12% higher total cost. Propensity score weighting analysis yielded similar results. Adequate covariate balance was achieved for all variables after weighting.Conclusions: Morbid obesity is adversely associated with perioperative outcomes in RALRP Close management is required in patients undergoing RALRP with morbid obesity for potential worse prognosis.
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| 4. |
- Li, Hansen, et al.
(författare)
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The Effects of Green and Urban Walking in Different Time Frames on Physio-Psychological Responses of Middle-Aged and Older People in Chengdu, China
- 2020
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Ingår i: International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. - : MDPI. - 1661-7827 .- 1660-4601. ; 18:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Nighttime walking is becoming a popular exercise for many middle-aged and older people in Asian countries. However, the health benefits of nighttime walking in urban areas and green spaces are still unclear. This study evaluated the physiological and psychological responses of 48 middle-aged and older people who walked 1.6 km through a green space and an urban area during daytime and nighttime. The Positive and Negative Affect Schedule (PANAS), Profile of Mood States (POMS), Perceived Restorativeness Scale (PRS), and Restorative Outcome Scale (ROS) were employed to measure the psychological responses, and pulse rate and blood pressure (SBP, DBP and MAP) were measured to evaluate the physiological responses. The results showed that the daytime green walking induced psychological improvements and lowered blood pressure (p < 0.05), while the daytime urban walking resulted in slight deterioration of all the measured parameters (p > 0.05). On the other hand, the nighttime green walking induced lowered blood pressure (p < 0.05), whilst the nighttime urban walking resulted in psychological improvements and lowered blood pressure (p < 0.05), and no significant difference was found in any measured parameter between the two nighttime walking groups. In conclusion, urban areas are noisy and irritating in the daytime, and not suitable for walking, but may become pleasurable and attractive at night. The psychological benefits of green walking may decrease at night, and nighttime walking in either an urban area or a green space may achieve similar health benefits. Therefore, we recommend that urban citizens start nighttime walking in a green space or an urban area to keep fit when the air is less polluted.
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| 5. |
- Ahl, Rebecka, 1987-, et al.
(författare)
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Effects of beta-blocker therapy on mortality after elective colon cancer surgery : a Swedish nationwide cohort study
- 2020
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Ingår i: BMJ Open. - : BMJ Publishing Group Ltd. - 2044-6055. ; 10:7
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- OBJECTIVE: Colon cancer surgery remains associated with substantial postoperative morbidity and mortality despite advances in surgical techniques and care. The trauma of surgery triggers adrenergic hyperactivation which drives adverse stress responses. We hypothesised that outcome benefits are gained by reducing the effects of hyperadrenergic activity with beta-blocker therapy in patients undergoing colon cancer surgery. This study aims to test this hypothesis.DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study.SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: This is a nationwide study which includes all adult patients undergoing elective colon cancer surgery in Sweden over 10 years. Patient data were collected from the Swedish Colorectal Cancer Registry. The national drugs registry was used to obtain information about beta-blocker use. Patients were subdivided into exposed and unexposed groups. The association between beta-blockade, short-term and long-term mortality was evaluated using Poisson regression, Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox regression.PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOMES: Primary outcome of interest was 1-year all-cause mortality. Secondary outcomes included 90-day all-cause and 5-year cancer-specific mortality.RESULTS: The study included 22 337 patients of whom 36.1% were prescribed preoperative beta-blockers. Survival was higher in patients on beta-blockers up to 1 year after surgery despite this group being significantly older and of higher comorbidity. Regression analysis demonstrated significant reductions in 90-day deaths (IRR 0.29, 95% CI 0.24 to 0.35, p<0.001) and a 43% risk reduction in 1-year all-cause mortality (adjusted HR 0.57, 95% CI 0.52 to 0.63, p<0.001) in beta-blocked patients. In addition, cancer-specific mortality up to 5 years after surgery was reduced in beta-blocked patients (adjusted HR 0.80, 95% CI 0.73 to 0.88, p<0.001).CONCLUSION: Preoperative beta-blockade is associated with significant reductions in postoperative short-term and long-term mortality following elective colon cancer surgery. Its potential prophylactic effect warrants further interventional studies to determine whether beta-blockade can be used as a way of improving outcomes for this patient group.
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| 6. |
- Ahl, Rebecka, 1987-, et al.
(författare)
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β-Blockade in Rectal Cancer Surgery : A Simple Measure of Improving Outcomes
- 2020
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Ingår i: Annals of Surgery. - : Lippincott Williams & Wilkins. - 0003-4932 .- 1528-1140. ; 271:1, s. 140-146
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- OBJECTIVE: To ascertain whether regular β-blocker exposure can improve short- and long-term outcomes after rectal cancer surgery.BACKGROUND: Surgery for rectal cancer is associated with substantial morbidity and mortality. There is increasing evidence to suggest that there is a survival benefit in patients exposed to β-blockers undergoing non-cardiac surgery. Studies investigating the effects on outcomes in patients subjected to surgery for rectal cancer are lacking.METHODS: All adult patients undergoing elective abdominal resection for rectal cancer over a 10-year period were recruited from the prospectively collected Swedish Colorectal Cancer Registry. Patients were subdivided according to preoperative β-blocker exposure status. Outcomes of interest were 30-day complications, 30-day cause-specific mortality, and 1-year all-cause mortality. The association between β-blocker use and outcomes were analyzed using Poisson regression model with robust standard errors for 30-day complications and cause-specific mortality. One-year survival was assessed using Cox proportional hazards regression model.RESULTS: A total of 11,966 patients were included in the current study, of whom 3513 (29.36%) were exposed to regular preoperative β-blockers. A significant decrease in 30-day mortality was detected (incidence rate ratio = 0.06, 95% confidence interval: 0.03-0.13, P < 0.001). Deaths of cardiovascular nature, respiratory origin, sepsis, and multiorgan failure were significantly lower in β-blocker users, as were the incidences in postoperative infection and anastomotic failure. The β-blocker positive group had significantly better survival up to 1 year postoperatively with a risk reduction of 57% (hazard ratio = 0.43, 95% confidence interval: 0.37-0.52, P < 0.001).CONCLUSIONS: Preoperative β-blocker use is strongly associated with improved survival and morbidity after abdominal resection for rectal cancer.
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| 7. |
- Bass, G. A., 1979-, et al.
(författare)
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Self-reported and actual adherence to the Tokyo guidelines in the European snapshot audit of complicated calculous biliary disease
- 2020
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Ingår i: BJS Open. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 2474-9842. ; 4:4, s. 622-629
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Complicated acute biliary calculous disease poses clinical challenges. The European Society of Trauma and Emergency Surgery (ESTES) snapshot audit of complicated biliary calculous disease aims to make novel comparisons between self-reported institutional adherence to the Tokyo guidelines (TG18) and 'real-world' contemporary practice across Europe.METHODS: A preplanned analysis of a prospective observational multicentre audit that captured patients undergoing emergency admission for complicated biliary calculous disease (complicated cholecystitis, biliary pancreatitis, or choledocholithiasis with or without cholangitis) between 1 and 31 October 2018 was performed. An anonymized survey was administered to participating sites.RESULTS: Following an open call for participation, 25 centres from nine countries enrolled 338 patients. All centres completed the anonymized survey. Fifteen centres (60 per cent) self-reported that a minority of patients were treated surgically on index admission, favouring interval cholecystectomy. This was replicated in the snapshot audit, in which 152 of 338 patients (45·0 per cent) underwent index admission cholecystectomy, 17 (5·0 per cent) had interval cholecystectomy, and the remaining 169 (50·0 per cent) had not undergone surgery by the end of the 60-day follow-up. Centres that employed a dedicated acute care surgery model of care were more likely to perform index admission cholecystectomy compared with a traditional general surgery 'on call' service (57 versus 38 per cent respectively; odds ratio 2·14 (95 per cent c.i. 1·37 to 3·35), P < 0·001). Six centres (24 per cent) self-reported routinely performing blood cultures in acute cholecystitis; patient-level audit data revealed that blood cultures were done in 47 of 154 patients (30·5 per cent). No centre self-reported omitting antibiotics in the management of acute cholecystitis, and 144 of 154 (93·5 per cent) of patients in the snapshot audit received antibiotics during their index admission.CONCLUSION: Awareness of TG18 recommendations was high, but self-reported adherence and objective snapshot audit data showed low compliance with TG18 in patients with complicated acute biliary calculous disease.
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| 8. |
- Cao, Yang, Associate Professor, 1972-, et al.
(författare)
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Deep Learning Neural Networks to Predict Serious Complications After Bariatric Surgery : Analysis of Scandinavian Obesity Surgery Registry Data
- 2020
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Ingår i: JMIR Medical Informatics. - : JMIR Publications. - 2291-9694. ; 8:5
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Obesity is one of today's most visible public health problems worldwide. Although modern bariatric surgery is ostensibly considered safe, serious complications and mortality still occur in some patients.OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to explore whether serious postoperative complications of bariatric surgery recorded in a national quality registry can be predicted preoperatively using deep learning methods.METHODS: Patients who were registered in the Scandinavian Obesity Surgery Registry (SOReg) between 2010 and 2015 were included in this study. The patients who underwent a bariatric procedure between 2010 and 2014 were used as training data, and those who underwent a bariatric procedure in 2015 were used as test data. Postoperative complications were graded according to the Clavien-Dindo classification, and complications requiring intervention under general anesthesia or resulting in organ failure or death were considered serious. Three supervised deep learning neural networks were applied and compared in our study: multilayer perceptron (MLP), convolutional neural network (CNN), and recurrent neural network (RNN). The synthetic minority oversampling technique (SMOTE) was used to artificially augment the patients with serious complications. The performances of the neural networks were evaluated using accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, Matthews correlation coefficient, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve.RESULTS: In total, 37,811 and 6250 patients were used as the training data and test data, with incidence rates of serious complication of 3.2% (1220/37,811) and 3.0% (188/6250), respectively. When trained using the SMOTE data, the MLP appeared to have a desirable performance, with an area under curve (AUC) of 0.84 (95% CI 0.83-0.85). However, its performance was low for the test data, with an AUC of 0.54 (95% CI 0.53-0.55). The performance of CNN was similar to that of MLP. It generated AUCs of 0.79 (95% CI 0.78-0.80) and 0.57 (95% CI 0.59-0.61) for the SMOTE data and test data, respectively. Compared with the MLP and CNN, the RNN showed worse performance, with AUCs of 0.65 (95% CI 0.64-0.66) and 0.55 (95% CI 0.53-0.57) for the SMOTE data and test data, respectively.CONCLUSIONS: MLP and CNN showed improved, but limited, ability for predicting the postoperative serious complications after bariatric surgery in the Scandinavian Obesity Surgery Registry data. However, the overfitting issue is still apparent and needs to be overcome by incorporating intra- and perioperative information.
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| 9. |
- Cao, Yang, Associate Professor, 1972-, et al.
(författare)
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The statistical importance of P-POSSUM scores for predicting mortality after emergency laparotomy in geriatric patients
- 2020
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Ingår i: BMC Medical Informatics and Decision Making. - : BioMed Central. - 1472-6947. ; 20:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Geriatric patients frequently undergo emergency general surgery and accrue a greater risk of postoperative complications and fatal outcomes than the general population. It is highly relevant to develop the most appropriate care measures and to guide patient-centered decision-making around end-of-life care. Portsmouth - Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enumeration of Mortality and morbidity (P-POSSUM) has been used to predict mortality in patients undergoing different types of surgery. In the present study, we aimed to evaluate the relative importance of the P-POSSUM score for predicting 90-day mortality in the elderly subjected to emergency laparotomy from statistical aspects.METHODS: One hundred and fifty-seven geriatric patients aged ≥65 years undergoing emergency laparotomy between January 1st, 2015 and December 31st, 2016 were included in the study. Mortality and 27 other patient characteristics were retrieved from the computerized records of Örebro University Hospital in Örebro, Sweden. Two supervised classification machine methods (logistic regression and random forest) were used to predict the 90-day mortality risk. Three scalers (Standard scaler, Robust scaler and Min-Max scaler) were used for variable engineering. The performance of the models was evaluated using accuracy, sensitivity, specificity and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Importance of the predictors were evaluated using permutation variable importance and Gini importance.RESULTS: The mean age of the included patients was 75.4 years (standard deviation =7.3 years) and the 90-day mortality rate was 29.3%. The most common indication for surgery was bowel obstruction occurring in 92 (58.6%) patients. Types of post-operative complications ranged between 7.0-36.9% with infection being the most common type. Both the logistic regression and random forest models showed satisfactory performance for predicting 90-day mortality risk in geriatric patients after emergency laparotomy, with AUCs of 0.88 and 0.93, respectively. Both models had an accuracy > 0.8 and a specificity ≥0.9. P-POSSUM had the greatest relative importance for predicting 90-day mortality in the logistic regression model and was the fifth important predictor in the random forest model. No notable change was found in sensitivity analysis using different variable engineering methods with P-POSSUM being among the five most accurate variables for mortality prediction.CONCLUSION: P-POSSUM is important for predicting 90-day mortality after emergency laparotomy in geriatric patients. The logistic regression model and random forest model may have an accuracy of > 0.8 and an AUC around 0.9 for predicting 90-day mortality. Further validation of the variables' importance and the models' robustness is needed by use of larger dataset.
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| 10. |
- Cao, Yang, Associate Professor, 1972-, et al.
(författare)
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Using Bayesian Networks to Predict Long-Term Health-Related Quality of Life and Comorbidity after Bariatric Surgery : A Study Based on the Scandinavian Obesity Surgery Registry
- 2020
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Ingår i: Journal of Clinical Medicine. - : MDPI. - 2077-0383. ; 9:6
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Previously published literature has identified a few predictors of health-related quality of life (HRQoL) after bariatric surgery. However, performance of the predictive models was not evaluated rigorously using real world data. To find better methods for predicting prognosis in patients after bariatric surgery, we examined performance of the Bayesian networks (BN) method in predicting long-term postoperative HRQoL and compared it with the convolution neural network (CNN) and multivariable logistic regression (MLR). The patients registered in the Scandinavian Obesity Surgery Registry (SOReg) were used for the current study. In total, 6542 patients registered in the SOReg between 2008 and 2012 with complete demographic and preoperative comorbidity information, and preoperative and postoperative 5-year HROoL scores and comorbidities were included in the study. HRQoL was measured using the RAND-SF-36 and the obesity-related problems scale. Thirty-five variables were used for analyses, including 19 predictors and 16 outcome variables. The Gaussian BN (GBN), CNN, and a traditional linear regression model were used for predicting 5-year HRQoL scores, and multinomial discrete BN (DBN) and MLR were used for 5-year comorbidities. Eighty percent of the patients were randomly selected as a training dataset and 20% as a validation dataset. The GBN presented a better performance than the CNN and the linear regression model; it had smaller mean squared errors (MSEs) than those from the CNN and the linear regression model. The MSE of the summary physical scale was only 0.0196 for GBN compared to the 0.0333 seen in the CNN. The DBN showed excellent predictive ability for 5-year type 2 diabetes and dyslipidemia (area under curve (AUC) = 0.942 and 0.917, respectively), good ability for 5-year hypertension and sleep apnea syndrome (AUC = 0.891 and 0.834, respectively), and fair ability for 5-year depression (AUC = 0.750). Bayesian networks provide useful tools for predicting long-term HRQoL and comorbidities in patients after bariatric surgery. The hybrid network that may involve variables from different probability distribution families deserves investigation in the future.
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