| 1. |
- Chen, Deliang, 1961, et al.
(författare)
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Summary of a workshop on extreme weather events in a warming world organized by the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences
- 2020
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Ingår i: Tellus Series B-Chemical and Physical Meteorology. - : Stockholm University Press. - 1600-0889 .- 0280-6509. ; 72:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Climate change is not only about changes in means of climatic variables such as temperature, precipitation and wind, but also their extreme values which are of critical importance to human society and ecosystems. To inspire the Swedish climate research community and to promote assessments of international research on past and future changes in extreme weather events against the global climate change background, the Earth Science Class of the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences organized a workshop entitled 'Extreme weather events in a warming world' in 2019. This article summarizes and synthesizes the key points from the presentations and discussions of the workshop on changes in floods, droughts, heat waves, as well as on tropical cyclones and extratropical storms. In addition to reviewing past achievements in these research fields and identifying research gaps with a focus on Sweden, future challenges and opportunities for the Swedish climate research community are highlighted.
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| 2. |
- Cui, Qiao-Yu, et al.
(författare)
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Evaluating fossil charcoal representation in small peat bogs : Detailed Holocene fire records from southern Sweden
- 2020
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Ingår i: The Holocene. - : Sage Publications. - 0959-6836 .- 1477-0911. ; 30:11, s. 1540-1551
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In this study, we assess how representative a single charcoal record from a peat profile in small bogs (1.5-2 ha in area) is for the reconstruction of Holocene fire history. We use high-resolution macrocharcoal (>250 mu m) analysis of continuous series of 2 cm(3)samples from two small bogs in southern Sweden. We compare (1) duplicate charcoal records from the same core, (2) duplicate charcoal records from profiles in the same site (10 m apart), and (3) charcoal records from two sites within the same region (15 km apart). Comparisons are made for charcoal counts and area expressed as accumulation rates. The results suggest that (a) charcoal counts and area are highly correlated in all records; (b) duplicate charcoal records within the same core are very similar, although some charcoal peaks are found in only one of the two records; (c) although long-term trends in fire regimes are similar between duplicate charcoal records from nearby profiles within the same site and between charcoal records from sites within the same region, some individual charcoal peaks/fire events are asynchronous between records. The known historical fires of the town of Vaxjo (1570 and 1612 CE) are recorded at the two study sites, which indicates a macrocharcoal source area of minimum 15 km in diameter. The 2 cm(3)peat samples contained relatively low amounts of macrocharcoal; we therefore recommend to analyse larger samples from small peat bogs with comparable peat accumulation rates. This will improve the reliability of the macrocharcoal record and its interpretation.
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| 3. |
- Harrison, Sandy P., et al.
(författare)
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Development and testing scenarios for implementing land use and land cover changes during the Holocene in Earth system model experiments
- 2020
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Ingår i: Geoscientific Model Development. - : Copernicus Gesellschaft MBH. - 1991-959X .- 1991-9603. ; 13:2, s. 805-824
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Anthropogenic changes in land use and land cover (LULC) during the pre-industrial Holocene could have affected regional and global climate. Existing scenarios of LULC changes during the Holocene are based on relatively simple assumptions and highly uncertain estimates of population changes through time. Archaeological and palaeoenvironmental reconstructions have the potential to refine these assumptions and estimates. The Past Global Changes (PAGES) LandCover6k initiative is working towards improved reconstructions of LULC globally. In this paper, we document the types of archaeological data that are being collated and how they will be used to improve LULC reconstructions. Given the large methodological uncertainties involved, both in reconstructing LULC from the archaeological data and in implementing these reconstructions into global scenarios of LULC, we propose a protocol to evaluate the revised scenarios using independent pollen-based reconstructions of land cover and climate. Further evaluation of the revised scenarios involves carbon cycle model simulations to determine whether the LULC reconstructions are consistent with constraints provided by ice core records of CO2 evolution and modern-day LULC. Finally, the protocol outlines how the improved LULC reconstructions will be used in palaeoclimate simulations in the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project to quantify the magnitude of anthropogenic impacts on climate through time and ultimately to improve the realism of Holocene climate simulations.
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| 4. |
- Li, Furong, et al.
(författare)
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Towards quantification of Holocene anthropogenic land-cover change in temperate China : A review in the light of pollen-based REVEALS reconstructions of regional plant cover
- 2020
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Ingår i: Earth-Science Reviews. - : Elsevier. - 0012-8252 .- 1872-6828. ; 203, s. 1-25
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- In an attempt to quantify Holocene anthropogenic land-cover change in temperate China, we 1) applied the REVEALS model to estimate plant-cover change using 94 pollen records and relative pollen productivity for 27 plant taxa, 2) reviewed earlier interpretation of pollen studies in terms of climate- and human-induced vegetation change, and 3) reviewed information on past land use from archaeological studies. REVEALS achieved a more realistic reconstruction of plant-cover change than pollen percentages in terms of openland versus woodland. The study suggests successive human-induced changes in vegetation cover. The first signs of human-induced land-cover change (crop cultivation, otherwise specified) are found c. 7 ka BP in the temperate deciduous forest, and S and NE Tibetan Plateau (mainly grazing, possibly crop cultivation), 6.5-6 ka BP in the temperate steppe and temperate desert (grazing, uncertain), and 5.5-5 ka BP in the coniferous-deciduous mixed forest, NE subtropical region, and NW Tibetan Plateau (grazing). Further intensification of anthropogenic land-cover change is indicated 5-4.5 ka BP in the E temperate steppe, and S and NE Tibetan Plateau (grazing, cultivation uncertain), 3.5-3 ka BP in S and NE Tibetan Plateau, W temperate steppe, temperate desert (grazing), and NW Tibetan Plateau (probably grazing), and 2.5-2 ka BP in the temperate deciduous forest, N subtropical region, and temperate desert (grazing). These changes generally agree with increased human activity as documented by archaeological studies. REVEALS reconstructions have a stronger potential than biomization to evaluate scenarios of anthropogenic land-cover change such as HYDE, given they are combined with information from archaeological studies.
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| 5. |
- Marquer, Laurent, et al.
(författare)
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Pollen-based reconstruction of Holocene land-cover in mountain regions : Evaluation of the Landscape Reconstruction Algorithm in the Vicdessos valley, northern Pyrenees, France
- 2020
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Ingår i: Quaternary Science Reviews. - : Elsevier. - 0277-3791 .- 1873-457X. ; 228, s. 1-15
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Long-term perspectives on climate- and human-induced shifts in plant communities and tree line in mountains are often inferred from fossil pollen records. However, various factors, such as complex patterns of orographic wind fields and abundant insect-pollinated plants in higher altitudes, make pollen-based reconstruction in mountain regions difficult. Over the last decade the Landscape Reconstruction Algorithm (LRA) - a model-based approach in reconstruction of vegetation - has been successfully applied in various parts of the globe. However, evaluation of its effectiveness in mountain ranges is still limited. The present study assesses the extent to which the LRA approach helps quantify the local changes in vegetation cover at Vicdessos valley in northern French Pyrenees as a case study. In the study area well-dated sediment cores are available from eight bogs and ponds, 6-113 m in radius, located above the current tree line. We first use a simple simulation experiment to evaluate the way how pollen records from "landscape islands" (mountain tops and plateaus) would represent local vegetation and to clarify important factors affecting the LRA-based reconstruction in a mountainous region. This study then uses pollen records from these sites and vegetation and land-cover data both within a 50-km radius around the Vicdessos valley and within a 2-km radius from each site for evaluation of the REVEALS- and LOVE-based reconstruction of the regional and local plant cover, respectively, in the LRA approach. The land-cover data are complied for coniferous trees, broadleaved trees and non-forested areas from the CORINE and historical maps in three time windows: 1960-1970, 1990-2000 and 2000-2013. Major findings are as follows. (1) Accuracy of the regional vegetation estimates affects the reliability of the LRA-based reconstruction of vegetation within a 2-km radius; use of the CORINE data as input to the LOVE model improves reliability of the results over the use of the REVEALS-based estimates of regional vegetation. This implies that a systematic selection of pollen data only from sites above the tree line is problematic for estimating regional vegetation, and thus the entire LRA process. (2) Selection of the dispersal models for pollen transport (i.e. the Langrangian Stochastic Model vs. Gaussian Plume Model) does not affect significantly the LRA-based estimates at both the regional and local scales in the study area. (3) The LRA approach improves the pollen-based reconstruction of local vegetation compared to pollen percentage alone in northern Pyrenees. Although further empirical and simulation studies are necessary, our results emphasize the importance of site selection for the LRA-based reconstruction of vegetation in mountain regions. (C) 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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| 6. |
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| 7. |
- Wan, Qiuchi, et al.
(författare)
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Evaluating quantitative pollen representation of vegetation in the tropics : A case study on the Hainan Island, tropical China
- 2020
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Ingår i: Ecological Indicators. - : Elsevier. - 1470-160X .- 1872-7034. ; 114, s. 1-14
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Complex pollen-vegetation relationships in tropical environments have long been a challenge for the interpretation of pollen spectra in terms of vegetation cover. Here, we test the application of the widely-used Extended R-Value (ERV) model in the tropical secondary and planted woodlands of the Hainan Island (China) to estimate relative pollen productivities (RPPs) for common plant taxa occurring as pollen in surface and fossil samples of the region. We collected pollen (soil samples) and related vegetation data within 1500 m radius at 23 random distributed sites within an area of 50 km x 100 km. We found a large difference between the modern pollen assemblages and the related vegetation composition in terms of number and dominance of taxa. We tested the three existing ERV sub-models and three methods to distance-weight vegetation cover, i.e. 1/d, the Prentice's model (using a Gaussian Plume dispersal model, GPM), and the Lagrangian stochastic dispersal model (LSM). The LSM appears to be inappropriate for our dataset. The combination of ERV sub-model 2 and Prentice's model using nine anemophilous and zoophilous (or with "messy" pollination syndrome) taxa was found to provide the best results. The relevant source area of pollen (RSAP) of the soil samples was estimated to ca. 1000-1500 m. The ranking of RPPs is as follows: Castanopsis-Lithocarpus (19.44 +/- 0.17) Asteraceae (8.74 +/- 0.05) > Moraceae (6.52 +/- 0.08) > Euphorbiaceae (5.22 +/- 0.1) > Papilionaceae (2.66 +/- 0.05) > Mallotus-Macaranga (2.21 +/- 0.08) > Anacardiaceae (1.77 +/- 0.04) > Rubiaceae (1.29 +/- 0.02) > Poaceae (=1). Violation of the ERV model assumptions of anemophily and stationarity of vegetation composition influenced the performance of the ERV analysis in this study and implied careful evaluation of the results. Nevertheless, the obtained RPPs are considered reliable and will allow to quantify the relative cover of the nine plant taxa in the past. Further studies of this kind will be worthwhile to obtain additional RPP values for a larger number of tropical taxa, even though quantification of past plant cover in the tropics will remain a challenge. The numerous zoophilous taxa may either be absent of the pollen record, or exhibit pollen-vegetation relationships for which the ERV-model is not successful in estimating RPPs. These plant taxa will require other approaches for their quantification in the past.
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