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- Cuijpers, P., et al.
(författare)
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The effects of blinding on the outcomes of psychotherapy and pharmacotherapy for adult depression: A meta-analysis
- 2015
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Ingår i: European psychiatry. - : ELSEVIER FRANCE-EDITIONS SCIENTIFIQUES MEDICALES ELSEVIER. - 0924-9338 .- 1778-3585. ; 30:6, s. 685-693
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Randomized trials with antidepressants are often run under double blind placebo-controlled conditions, whereas those with psychotherapies are mostly unblinded. This can introduce bias in favor of psychotherapy when the treatments are directly compared. In this meta-analysis, we examine this potential source of bias. Methods: We searched Pubmed, PsycInfo, Embase and the Cochrane database (1966 to January 2014) by combining terms indicative of psychological treatment and depression, and limited to randomized trials. We included 35 trials (with 3721 patients) in which psychotherapy and pharmacotherapy for adult depression were directly compared with each other. We calculated effect sizes for each study indicating the difference between psychotherapy and pharmacotherapy at post-test. Then, we examined the difference between studies with a placebo condition and those without in moderator analyses. Results: We did not find a significant difference between the studies with and those without a placebo condition. The studies in which a placebo condition was included indicated no significant difference between psychotherapy and pharmacotherapy (g = -0.07; NNT = 25). Studies in which no placebo condition was included (and patients and clinicians in both conditions were not blinded), resulted in a small, but significant difference between psychotherapy and pharmacotherapy in favor of pharmacotherapy (g = -0.13; NNT = 14). Conclusions: Studies comparing psychotherapy and pharmacotherapy in which both groups of patients (and therapists) are not blinded (no placebo condition is included) result in a very small, but significantly higher effect for pharmacotherapy. (C) 2015 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.
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- Luterbacher, J., et al.
(författare)
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European summer temperatures since Roman times
- 2016
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Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters. - : IOP Publishing. - 1748-9326. ; 11:2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The spatial context is criticalwhen assessing present-day climate anomalies, attributing them to potential forcings and making statements regarding their frequency and severity in a long-term perspective. Recent international initiatives have expanded the number of high-quality proxy-records and developed new statistical reconstruction methods. These advances allow more rigorous regional past temperature reconstructions and, in turn, the possibility of evaluating climate models on policy-relevant, spatiotemporal scales. Here we provide a new proxy-based, annually-resolved, spatial reconstruction of the European summer (June-August) temperature fields back to 755 CE based on Bayesian hierarchical modelling (BHM), together with estimates of the European mean temperature variation since 138 BCE based on BHM and composite-plus-scaling (CPS). Our reconstructions compare well with independent instrumental and proxy-based temperature estimates, but suggest a larger amplitude in summer temperature variability than previously reported. Both CPS and BHM reconstructions indicate that the mean 20th century European summer temperature was not significantly different from some earlier centuries, including the 1st, 2nd, 8th and 10th centuries CE. The 1st century (in BHM also the 10th century) may even have been slightly warmer than the 20th century, but the difference is not statistically significant. Comparing each 50 yr period with the 1951-2000 period reveals a similar pattern. Recent summers, however, have been unusually warm in the context of the last two millennia and there are no 30 yr periods in either reconstruction that exceed the mean average European summer temperature of the last 3 decades (1986-2015 CE). A comparison with an ensemble of climate model simulations suggests that the reconstructed European summer temperature variability over the period 850-2000 CE reflects changes in both internal variability and external forcing on multi-decadal time-scales. For pan-European temperatures we find slightly better agreement between the reconstruction and the model simulations with high-end estimates for total solar irradiance. Temperature differences between the medieval period, the recent period and the Little Ice Age are larger in the reconstructions than the simulations. This may indicate inflated variability of the reconstructions, a lack of sensitivity and processes to changes in external forcing on the simulated European climate and/or an underestimation of internal variability on centennial and longer time scales.
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