| 1. |
- Andersson, Lotta, 1958-, et al.
(författare)
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Assessment of climate change impact on water resources in the Pungwe river basin.
- 2011
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Ingår i: Tellus. Series A, Dynamic meteorology and oceanography. - : Stockholm University Press. - 0280-6495 .- 1600-0870. ; 63:1, s. 138-157
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Rossby Centre Regional Climate Model (RCA3) and the hydrological model HBV were linked to assess climate change impacts on water resources in the Pungwe basin until 2050. RCA3 was capable of simulating the most important aspects of the climate for a control period at the regional scale. At the subbasin scale, additional scalingwas needed. Three climate change experiments using ECHAM4-A2, B2 and CCSM3-B2 as input to RCA3 were carried out. According to the simulations annual rainfall in 2050 would be reduced by approximately 10% with increasing interannual variability of rainfall and dry season river flow and later onset of the rainy season. The ECHAM4-A2 driven experiment did also indicate a slight increase of high flows. If the results indeed reflect the future, they will worsen the already critical situation for water resources, regarding both floods and droughts. Uncertainties, however in the downscaled scenarios make it difficult to prioritize adaptation options. This calls for inclusion of more climate change experiments, in an ensemble of climate scenarios possibly by using a combination of dynamical and statistical downscaling of general circulation models, as well as extending the simulations to 2100 to further ensure robustness of the signal.
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| 2. |
- Björklund, Camilla, et al.
(författare)
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Matematikkundervisning
- 2013
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Bok (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Denna boken är skriven av en grupp erfarna norska och svenska lärarutbildare i matematik. Boken bygger på utprövad erfarenhet - såväl egen som andras - och på aktuell, relevant forskning i matematikdidaktik. Texten väver samman matematik och matematikdidaktik, det vill säga ämnet som det undervisas i och frågor om hur ämnet kan läras och undervisas. Boken innehåller det som är absolut viktigast att få med sig i den grundläggande lärarutbildningen i matmatik.
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| 3. |
- Forsberg, Anna M., et al.
(författare)
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Prevalence of colonic neoplasia and advanced lesions in the normal population : a prospective population-based colonoscopy study
- 2012
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Ingår i: Scandinavian journal of gastroenterology. - : Informa UK Limited. - 1502-7708 .- 0036-5521. ; 47:2, s. 184-90
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Objective. There are few prospective studies of the prevalence of colonic neoplasia in the normal population. In order to properly evaluate screening-protocols for colorectal cancer in risk groups (e.g., older subjects or those with a family history), it is essential to know the prevalence of adenomas and cancer in the normal population. Methods. A prospective population-based colonoscopy study on 745 individuals born in Sweden aged 19-70 years was conducted (mean age 51.1 years). All polyps seen were retrieved and examined. Results. Out of the 745 individuals 27% had polyps, regardless of kind. Adenomas were found in 10% of the individuals and finding of adenomas was positively correlated to higher age. Men had adenomas in 15% and women in 6% of the cases. Women had a right-sided dominance of adenomas. Hyperplastic polyps were seen in 21% of the individuals. The presence of hyperplastic polyps was significantly positively correlated to the presence of adenomas. Advanced adenomas were seen in 2.8% of the study participants, but no cancers were detected. Conclusion. One in 10 healthy subjects had an adenoma but advanced adenomas were uncommon. Men and women have a different adenoma prevalence and localization. The results provide baseline European data for evaluating colonoscopy screening-protocols for colorectal cancer risk groups, and the findings may have implications for colon cancer screening in the normal, otherwise-healthy population.
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| 4. |
- Grevholm, Barbro, et al.
(författare)
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Lära och undervisa matematik : från förskoleklass till åk 6
- 2012
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Bok (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Lära och undervisa matematik - från förskoleklass till åk 6 är en grundbok i matematik och matematikämnets didaktik. Den vänder sig till lärarstuderande och till verksamma lärare som vill aktualisera sina kunskaper och ta del av den senaste forskningen samt sätta sig in i de nya kursplanerna och kunskapskraven i matematik.
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| 5. |
- Hesselbjerg Christensen, Jens, et al.
(författare)
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Weight assignment in regional climate models
- 2010
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Ingår i: Climate Research. - : Inter-Research Science Center. - 1616-1572 .- 0936-577X. ; 44:2-3, s. 179-194
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- An important new development within the European ENSEMBLES project has been to explore performance-based weighting of regional climate models (RCMs). Until now, although no weighting has been applied in multi-RCM analyses, one could claim that an assumption of ‘equal weight’ was implicitly adopted. At the same time, different RCMs generate different results, e.g. for various types of extremes, and these results need to be combined when using the full RCM ensemble. The process of constructing, assigning and combining metrics of model performance is not straightforward. Rather, there is a considerable degree of subjectivity both in the choice of metrics and on how these may be combined into weights. We explore the applicability of combining a set of 6 specifically designed RCM performance metrics to produce one aggregated model weight with the purpose of combining climate change information from the range of RCMs used within ENSEMBLES. These metrics capture aspects of model performance in reproducing large-scale circulation patterns, meso-scale signals, daily temperature and precipitation distributions and extremes, trends and the annual cycle. We examine different aggregation procedures that generate different inter-model spreads of weights. The use of model weights is sensitive to the aggregation procedure and shows different sensitivities to the selected metrics. Generally, however, we do not find compelling evidence of an improved description of mean climate states using performance-based weights in comparison to the use of equal weights. We suggest that model weighting adds another level of uncertainty to the generation of ensemble-based climate projections, which should be suitably explored, although our results indicate that this uncertainty remains relatively small for the weighting procedures examined.
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| 6. |
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| 7. |
- Kjellström, Erik, et al.
(författare)
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Emerging regional climate change signals for Europe under varying large-scale circulation conditions
- 2013
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Ingår i: Climate Research (CR). - : Inter-Research Science Center. - 0936-577X .- 1616-1572. ; 56:2, s. 103-119
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A large ensemble of regional climate model projections was investigated regarding if and when they show an emergence of significant climate change signals in seasonal temperature and precipitation within Europe. The influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), as simulated in the projections, was investigated. In most parts of Europe, the projections indicate robust emergence of temperature change in the first 2 decades of the 21st century, typically earlier for summer than for winter. For precipitation changes, signals generally emerge much later than for temperature. For Europe as a whole, the precipitation signals tend to emerge some 40 to 60 yr later than the temperature signals. In some sub-regions, robust signals for precipitation are not found within the studied period, i.e. until 2100. Some sub-regions, notably the Mediterranean area and Scandinavia, show different behaviour in some aspects compared to the ensemble-based results as a whole. NAO has some influence on the temperature change signals, which emerge earlier in winter for some models and regions if NAO is accounted for. For summer temperatures, the influence of NAO is less evident. Similarly, for precipitation, accounting for NAO leads to an earlier emergence in some regions and models. Here, we find an impact for both summer and winter.
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| 8. |
- Kjellström, Erik
(författare)
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Klimatscenarier för Sverige, beräkningar från SMHI
- 2014
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- För att öka kunskapen om vilka konsekvenser ett förändrat klimat eller miljö kan ge på kulturhistoriskt värdefull bebyggelse genomförde Riksantikvarieämbetet under 2013 projektet ”Klimat- och miljöeffekters påverkan på kulturhistoriskt värdefull bebyggelse”. Projektet har inventerat det nationella kunskapsläget och resultatet presenteras i fyra delrapporter, varav följande rapport, skriven av docent Erik Kjellström vid Rossby Centre, SMHI, är en av dessa.
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| 9. |
- Kjellström, Erik, et al.
(författare)
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Simulated climate conditions in Europe during the Marine Isotope Stage 3 stadial
- 2010
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Ingår i: Boreas. - : Wiley. - 0300-9483 .- 1502-3885. ; 39:2, s. 436-456
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- State-of-the-art climate models were used to simulate climate conditions in Europe during Greenland Stadial (GS) 12 at 44 ka BP. The models employed for these simulations were: (i) a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate model (AOGCM), and (ii) a regional atmospheric climate model (RCM) to dynamically downscale results from the global model for a more detailed investigation of European climate conditions. The vegetation was simulated off-line by a dynamic vegetation model forced by the climate from the RCM. The resulting vegetation was then compared with the a priori vegetation used in the first simulation. In a subsequent step, the RCM was rerun to yield a new climate more consistent with the simulated vegetation. Forcing conditions included orbital forcing, land-sea distribution, ice-sheet configuration, and atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations representative for 44 ka BP. The results show a cold climate on the global scale, with global annual mean surface temperatures 5 degrees C colder than the modern climate. This is still significantly warmer than temperatures derived from the same model system for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Regional, northern European climate is much colder than today, but still significantly warmer than during the LGM. Comparisons between the simulated climate and proxy-based sea-surface temperature reconstructions show that the results are in broad agreement, albeit with a possible cold bias in parts of the North Atlantic in summer. Given a prescribed restricted Marine Isotope Stage 3 ice-sheet configuration, with large ice-free regions in Sweden and Finland, the AOGCM and RCM model simulations produce a cold and dry climate in line with the restricted ice-sheet configuration during GS 12. The simulated temperature climate, with prescribed ice-free conditions in south-central Fennoscandia, is favourable for the development of permafrost, but does not allow local ice-sheet formation as all snow melts during summer.
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| 10. |
- Kjellström, Erik, et al.
(författare)
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Simulated climate conditions in Fennoscandia during a MIS 3 stadial
- 2010
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Ingår i: Boreas. - : Wiley. - 0300-9483 .- 1502-3885. ; 39:2, s. 436-456
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- State-of-the-art climate models were used to simulate climate conditions in Europe during Greenland Stadial (GS) 12 at 44 ka BP. The models employed for these simulations were: (i) a fully coupled atmosphere–ocean global climate model (AOGCM), and (ii) a regional atmospheric climate model (RCM) to dynamically downscale results from the global model for a more detailed investigation of European climate conditions. The vegetation was simulated off-line by a dynamic vegetation model forced by the climate from the RCM. The resulting vegetation was then compared with the a priori vegetation used in the first simulation. In a subsequent step, the RCM was rerun to yield a new climate more consistent with the simulated vegetation. Forcing conditions included orbital forcing, land–sea distribution, ice-sheet configuration, and atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations representative for 44 ka BP. The results show a cold climate on the global scale, with global annual mean surface temperatures 5 °C colder than the modern climate. This is still significantly warmer than temperatures derived from the same model system for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Regional, northern European climate is much colder than today, but still significantly warmer than during the LGM. Comparisons between the simulated climate and proxy-based sea-surface temperature reconstructions show that the results are in broad agreement, albeit with a possible cold bias in parts of the North Atlantic in summer. Given a prescribed restricted Marine Isotope Stage 3 ice-sheet configuration, with large ice-free regions in Sweden and Finland, the AOGCM and RCM model simulations produce a cold and dry climate in line with the restricted ice-sheet configuration during GS 12. The simulated temperature climate, with prescribed ice-free conditions in south-central Fennoscandia, is favourable for the development of permafrost, but does not allow local ice-sheet formation as all snow melts during summer.
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