| 1. |
- Chen, Deliang, 1961, et al.
(författare)
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Summary of a workshop on extreme weather events in a warming world organized by the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences
- 2020
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Ingår i: Tellus Series B-Chemical and Physical Meteorology. - : Stockholm University Press. - 1600-0889 .- 0280-6509. ; 72:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Climate change is not only about changes in means of climatic variables such as temperature, precipitation and wind, but also their extreme values which are of critical importance to human society and ecosystems. To inspire the Swedish climate research community and to promote assessments of international research on past and future changes in extreme weather events against the global climate change background, the Earth Science Class of the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences organized a workshop entitled 'Extreme weather events in a warming world' in 2019. This article summarizes and synthesizes the key points from the presentations and discussions of the workshop on changes in floods, droughts, heat waves, as well as on tropical cyclones and extratropical storms. In addition to reviewing past achievements in these research fields and identifying research gaps with a focus on Sweden, future challenges and opportunities for the Swedish climate research community are highlighted.
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| 2. |
- Christensen, Ole B., et al.
(författare)
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Partitioning uncertainty components of mean climate and climate change in a large ensemble of European regional climate model projections
- 2020
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Ingår i: Climate Dynamics. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0930-7575 .- 1432-0894. ; 54:9-10, s. 4293-4308
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A study of seasonal mean temperature, precipitation, and wind speed has been performed for a set of 19 global climate model (GCM) driven high-resolution regional climate model (RCM) simulations forming a complete 5 x 4 GCM x RCM matrix with only one missing simulation. Differences between single simulations and between groups of simulations forced by a specific GCM or a specific RCM are identified. With the help of an analysis of variance (ANOVA) we split the ensemble variance into linear GCM and RCM contributions and cross terms for both mean climate and climate change for the end of the current century according to the RCP8.5 emission scenario. The results document that the choice of GCM generally has a larger influence on the climate change signal than the choice of RCM, having a significant influence for roughly twice as many points in the area for the fields investigated (temperature, precipitation and wind speed). It is also clear that the RCM influence is generally concentrated close to the eastern and northern boundaries and in mountainous areas, i.e., in areas where the added surface detail of e.g. orography, snow and ice seen by the RCM is expected to have considerable influence on the climate, and in areas where the air in general has spent the most time within the regional domain. The analysis results in estimates of areas where the specific identity of either GCM or RCM is formally significant, hence obtaining an indication about regions, seasons, and fields where linear superpositions of GCM and RCM effects are good approximations to an actual simulation for both the mean fields analysed and their changes. In cases where linear superposition works well, the frequently encountered sparse GCM-RCM matrices may be filled with emulated results, leading to the possibility of giving more fair relative weight between model simulations than simple averaging of existing simulations. An important result of the present study is that properties of the specific GCM-RCM combination are generally important for the mean climate, but negligible for climate change for the seasonal-mean surface fields investigated here.
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| 3. |
- Hartman, Erik, et al.
(författare)
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Bioinformatic Analysis of the Wound Peptidome Reveals Potential Biomarkers and Antimicrobial Peptides
- 2021
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Ingår i: Frontiers in Immunology. - : Frontiers Media SA. - 1664-3224. ; 11
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Wound infection is a common and serious medical condition with an unmet need for improved diagnostic tools. A peptidomic approach, aided by mass spectrometry and bioinformatics, could provide novel means of identifying new peptide biomarkers for wound healing and infection assessment. Wound fluid is suitable for peptidomic analysis since it is both intimately tied to the wound environment and is readily available. In this study we investigate the peptidomes of wound fluids derived from surgical drainages following mastectomy and from wound dressings following facial skin grafting. By applying sorting algorithms and open source third party software to peptidomic label free tandem mass spectrometry data we provide an unbiased general methodology for analyzing and differentiating between peptidomes. We show that the wound fluid peptidomes of patients are highly individualized. However, differences emerge when grouping the patients depending on wound type. Furthermore, the abundance of peptides originating from documented antimicrobial regions of hemoglobin in infected wounds may contribute to an antimicrobial wound environment, as determined by in silico analysis. We validate our findings by compiling literature on peptide biomarkers and peptides of physiological significance and cross checking the results against our dataset, demonstrating that well-documented peptides of immunological significance are abundant in infected wounds, and originate from certain distinct regions in proteins such as hemoglobin and fibrinogen. Ultimately, we have demonstrated the power using sorting algorithms and open source software to help yield insights and visualize peptidomic data.
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| 4. |
- Hartman, Erik, et al.
(författare)
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Peptimetric : Quantifying and Visualizing Differences in Peptidomic Data
- 2021
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Ingår i: Frontiers in Bioinformatics. - : Frontiers Media SA. - 2673-7647. ; 1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Finding new sustainable means of diagnosing and treating diseases is one of the most pressing issues of our time. In recent years, several endogenous peptides have been found to be both excellent biomarkers for many diseases and to possess important physiological roles which may be utilized in treatments. The detection of peptides has been facilitated by the rapid development of biological mass spectrometry and now the combination of fast and sensitive high resolution MS instruments and stable nano HP-LC equipment sequences thousands of peptides in one single experiment. In most research conducted with these advanced systems, proteolytically cleaved proteins are analyzed and the specific peptides are identified by software dedicated for protein quantification using different proteomics workflows. Analysis of endogenous peptides with peptidomics workflows also benefit from the novel sensitive and advanced instrumentation, however, the generated peptidomic data is vast and subsequently laborious to visualize and examine, creating a bottleneck in the analysis. Therefore, we have created Peptimetric, an application designed to allow researchers to investigate and discover differences between peptidomic samples. Peptimetric allows the user to dynamically and interactively investigate the proteins, peptides, and some general characteristics of multiple samples, and is available as a web application at https://peptimetric.herokuapp.com. To illustrate the utility of Peptimetric, we’ve applied it to a peptidomic dataset of 15 urine samples from diabetic patients and corresponding data from healthy subjects.
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| 5. |
- Lind, Petter, 1979-, et al.
(författare)
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Benefits and added value of convection-permitting climate modeling over Fenno-Scandinavia
- 2020
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Ingår i: Climate Dynamics. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0930-7575 .- 1432-0894. ; 55:7-8, s. 1893-1912
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Convection-permitting climate models have shown superior performance in simulating important aspects of the precipitation climate including extremes and also to give partly different climate change signals compared to coarser-scale models. Here, we present the first long-term (1998–2018) simulation with a regional convection-permitting climate model for Fenno-Scandinavia. We use the HARMONIE-Climate (HCLIM) model on two nested grids; one covering Europe at 12 km resolution (HCLIM12) using parameterized convection, and one covering Fenno-Scandinavia with 3 km resolution (HCLIM3) with explicit deep convection. HCLIM12 uses lateral boundaries from ERA-Interim reanalysis. Model results are evaluated against reanalysis and various observational data sets, some at high resolutions. HCLIM3 strongly improves the representation of precipitation compared to HCLIM12, most evident through reduced “drizzle” and increased occurrence of higher intensity events as well as improved timing and amplitude of the diurnal cycle. This is the case even though the model exhibits a cold bias in near-surface temperature, particularly for daily maximum temperatures in summer. Simulated winter precipitation is biased high, primarily over complex terrain. Considerable undercatchment in observations may partly explain the wet bias. Examining instead the relative occurrence of snowfall versus rain, which is sensitive to variance in topographic heights it is shown that HCLIM3 provides added value compared to HCLIM12 also for winter precipitation. These results, indicating clear benefits of convection-permitting models, are encouraging motivating further exploration of added value in this region, and provide a valuable basis for impact studies.
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| 6. |
- Nasr, Amro, et al.
(författare)
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A review of the potential impacts of climate change on the safety and performance of bridges
- 2021
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Ingår i: Sustainable and Resilient Infrastructure. - : Informa UK Limited. - 2378-9689 .- 2378-9697. ; 6:3-4, s. 192-212
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- An overabundance of evidence, both observational and from model projections, indicate that changes to the climate system are taking place at unprecedented rates. Although the magnitudes of these changes involve large uncertainties, the fact that our climate is changing is unequivocal. To ensure an unimpaired functionality of our societies,it is therefore of crucial importance to study the potential climate change impacts on infrastructure. Taking into account that bridges have a considerably long service life, it is of direct relevance to ascertain their reliable performance against climate change risks. This paper synthesizes the findings of over 190 research articles to identify the potential risks climate change may pose on bridges. Over 30 potential risks, supported by pertinent previous bridge damage (or failure) cases, are identified, categorized, and linked to the projected future climate changes. The identified risks can be used as a basis for future risk prioritization by bridge managers.
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| 7. |
- Nasr, Amro, et al.
(författare)
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Quantitative assessment of the impact of climate change on creep of concrete structures
- 2021
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Ingår i: Proceedings of the 31st European Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL 2021). - Singapore : Research Publishing Services. - 9789811820168 ; , s. 1318-1325
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Creep of concrete structures is in most cases regarded as a serviceability problem that may have impacts on maintenance and repair costs but cannot lead to structural collapse. However, several structural collapses during the past decades have been, at least partly, attributed to excessive creep deformations. Recent studies suggest that concrete creep may be further exacerbated by climate change. The current study demonstrates how this effect can be quantitatively assessed. For this purpose, six different creep models (i.e, Model Code 1999, Model Code 2010, MPF, B3, B4, and B4s models) are used under considerations of historical and future climatic conditions in southernmost Sweden as given by a regional climate model. Furthermore, two different simulations were performed as follows: 1) considering only climate uncertainty represented by the climate model, and 2) considering climate uncertainty, parameter uncertainty, and creep model uncertainty. The highest impact of climate change on end of century creep coefficient is observed using model B4 where the 75th percentile of the increase in creep coefficient is found to range from 8% to ∼14% depending on the climate scenario. The results of the assessment in this article show that the uncertainty related to climate change on creep of concrete structures (higher effect in RCP8.5 than in RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 which have very similar results) is much smaller than uncertainties resulting from creep modelling.
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| 8. |
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| 9. |
- Rana, Arun, et al.
(författare)
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Contrasting regional and global climate simulations over South Asia
- 2020
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Ingår i: Climate Dynamics. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0930-7575 .- 1432-0894. ; 54:5-6, s. 2883-2901
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Two ensembles of climate simulations, one global and one regional, are used to investigate model errors and projected climate change in seasonal mean temperature and precipitation over South Asia. The global ensemble includes ten global climate models (GCMs). In the regional ensemble all ten GCMs are downscaled by a regional climate model-RCA4 over South Asia at 50 km resolution. Our focus is on the Indian Summer Monsoon season (June-August) and we show that RCA4 can reproduce, reduce or amplify large-scale GCM biases depending on regions and GCMs. However, the RCA4 bias pattern in precipitation is similar across the simulations, regardless of forcing GCM, indicating a strong RCA4 imprint on the simulated precipitation. For climate change, the results indicate, that RCA4 can change the signal projected by the GCM ensemble and its individual members. There are a few RCA4 simulations with a substantial reduction of projected warming by RCA4 compared to the driving GCMs and with a large regional increase in precipitation absent in the GCMs. We also found that in a number of subregions warm RCA4 biases are related to stronger warming and vice versa, while there is no such dependency in the GCM ensemble. Neither the GCM nor the RCA4 ensemble shows any significant dependency between projected changes and biases for precipitation. Our results implicate that using only RCMs and excluding GCMs, a commonly established approach, can significantly change the message on future regional climate change.
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| 10. |
- Sandqvist, Anna, et al.
(författare)
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Risk stratification in chronic thromboembolic pulmonary hypertension predicts survival
- 2021
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Ingår i: Scandinavian Cardiovascular Journal. - : Taylor & Francis Group. - 1401-7431 .- 1651-2006. ; 55:1, s. 43-49
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Objectives: To investigate if the pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) risk assessment tool presented in the 2015 ESC/ERS guidelines is valid for patients with chronic thromboembolic pulmonary hypertension (CTEPH) when taking pulmonary endarterectomy (PEA) into account. Design. Incident CTEPH patients registered in the Swedish PAH Registry (SPAHR) between 2008 and 2016 were included. Risk stratification performed at baseline and follow-up classified the patients as low-, intermediate-, or high-risk using the proposed ESC/ERS risk algorithm. Results: There were 250 CTEPH patients with median age (interquartile range) 70 (14) years, and 53% were male. Thirty-two percent underwent PEA within 5 (6) months. In a multivariable model adjusting for age, sex, and pharmacological treatment, patients with intermediate-risk or high-risk profiles at baseline displayed an increased mortality risk (Hazard Ratio [95% confidence interval]: 1.64 [0.69–3.90] and 5.39 [2.13–13.59], respectively) compared to those with a low-risk profile, whereas PEA was associated with better survival (0.38 [0.18–0.82]). Similar impact of risk profile and PEA was seen at follow-up.Conclusion: The ESC/ERS risk assessment tool identifies CTEPH patients with reduced survival. Furthermore, PEA improves survival markedly independently of risk group and age.
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