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- Abbott, Benjamin W., et al.
(författare)
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Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire : an expert assessment
- 2016
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Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters. - : IOP Publishing. - 1748-9326. ; 11:3
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- As the permafrost region warms, its large organic carbon pool will be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition, combustion, and hydrologic export. Models predict that some portion of this release will be offset by increased production of Arctic and boreal biomass; however, the lack of robust estimates of net carbon balance increases the risk of further overshooting international emissions targets. Precise empirical or model-based assessments of the critical factors driving carbon balance are unlikely in the near future, so to address this gap, we present estimates from 98 permafrost-region experts of the response of biomass, wildfire, and hydrologic carbon flux to climate change. Results suggest that contrary to model projections, total permafrost-region biomass could decrease due to water stress and disturbance, factors that are not adequately incorporated in current models. Assessments indicate that end-of-the-century organic carbon release from Arctic rivers and collapsing coastlines could increase by 75% while carbon loss via burning could increase four-fold. Experts identified water balance, shifts in vegetation community, and permafrost degradation as the key sources of uncertainty in predicting future system response. In combination with previous findings, results suggest the permafrost region will become a carbon source to the atmosphere by 2100 regardless of warming scenario but that 65%-85% of permafrost carbon release can still be avoided if human emissions are actively reduced.
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| 2. |
- Wik, Martin, 1982-
(författare)
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Emission of methane from northern lakes and ponds
- 2016
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Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Northern lakes and ponds are abundant and emit large amounts of the potent climate forcer methane to the atmosphere at rates prone to change with amplified Arctic warming. In spite of being important, fluxes from surface waters are not well understood. Long-term measurements are lacking and the dominant and irregular transport mode ebullition (bubbling) is rarely quantified, which complicate the inclusion of lakes and ponds in the global methane budget. This thesis focuses on variations in emissions on both local and regional scales. A synthesis of methane fluxes from almost all studied sites constrains uncertainties and demonstrates that northern lakes and ponds are a dominant source at high latitudes. Per unit area variations in flux magnitudes among different types of water bodies are mainly linked to water depth and type of sediment. When extrapolated, total area is key and thus post-glacial lakes dominate emissions over water bodies formed by peat degradation or thermokarst processes. Further, consistent multiyear measurements in three post-glacial lakes in Stordalen, northern Sweden, reveal that seasonal ebullition, primarily driven by fermentation of acetate, can be predicted by easily measured parameters such as temperature and heat energy input over the ice-free season. Assuming that most water bodies respond similarly to warming, this thesis also suggests that northern lakes and ponds will release substantially more methane before the end of the century, primarily as a result of longer ice-free seasons. Improved uncertainty reductions of both current and future estimates rely on increased knowledge of landscape-level processes related to changes in aquatic systems and organic loading with permafrost thaw, as well as more high-quality measurements, seldom seen in contemporary data. Sampling distributed over entire ice-free seasons and across different depth zones is crucial for accurately quantifying methane emissions from northern lakes and ponds.
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