| 1. |
- Stanaway, Jeffrey D., et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1923-1994
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk- outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.
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| 2. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 3. |
- Christakoudi, Sofia, et al.
(författare)
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Steroid regulation : An overlooked aspect of tolerance and chronic rejection in kidney transplantation
- 2018
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Ingår i: Molecular and Cellular Endocrinology. - : ELSEVIER IRELAND LTD. - 0303-7207 .- 1872-8057. ; 473, s. 205-216
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Steroid conversion (HSD11B1, HSD11B2, H6PD) and receptor genes (NR3C1, NR3C2) were examined in kidney-transplant recipients with "operational tolerance" and chronic rejection (CR), independently and within the context of 88 tolerance-associated genes. Associations with cellular types were explored. Peripheral whole-blood gene-expression levels (RT-qPCR-based) and cell counts were adjusted for immunosuppressant drug intake. Tolerant (n = 17), stable (n = 190) and CR patients (n = 37) were compared. Healthy controls (n= 14) were used as reference. The anti-inflammatory glucocorticoid receptor (NR3C1) and the cortisol-activating HSD11B1 and H6PD genes were up-regulated in CR and were lowest in tolerant patients. The pro-inflammatory mineralocorticoid gene (NR3C2) was downregulated in stable and CR patients. NR3C1 was associated with neutrophils and NR3C2 with T-cells. Steroid conversion and receptor genes, alone, enabled classification of tolerant patients and were major contributors to gene-expression signatures of both, tolerance and CR, alongside known tolerance-associated genes, revealing a key role of steroid regulation and response in kidney transplantation.
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| 4. |
- Myers, Regina M., et al.
(författare)
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Long-Term Outcomes Among 2-Year Survivors of Autologous Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation for Hodgkin and Diffuse Large B-Cell Lymphoma
- 2018
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Ingår i: Cancer. - : WILEY. - 0008-543X .- 1097-0142. ; 124:4, s. 816-825
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Autologous hematopoietic cell transplantation (auto-HCT) is a standard therapy for relapsed classic Hodgkin lymphoma (cHL) and diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL); however, long-term outcomes are not well described.METHODS: This study analyzed survival, nonrelapse mortality, late effects, and subsequent malignant neoplasms (SMNs) in 1617 patients who survived progression-free for >= 2 years after auto-HCT for cHL or DLBCL between 1990 and 2008. The median age at auto-HCT was 40 years; the median follow-up was 10.6 years.RESULTS: The 5-year overall survival rate was 90% (95% confidence interval [CI], 87%-92%) for patients with cHL and 89% (95% CI, 87%-91%) for patients with DLBCL. The risk of late mortality in comparison with the general population was 9.6-fold higher for patients with cHL (standardized mortality ratio [SMR], 9.6) and 3.4-fold higher for patients with DLBCL (SMR, 3.4). Relapse accounted for 44% of late deaths. At least 1 late effect was reported for 9% of the patients. A total of 105 SMNs were confirmed: 44 in the cHL group and 61 in the DLBCL group. According to a multivariate analysis, older age, male sex, a Karnofsky score < 90, total body irradiation (TBI) exposure, and a higher number of lines of chemotherapy before auto-HCT were risk factors for overall mortality in cHL. Risk factors in DLBCL were older age and TBI exposure. A subanalysis of 798 adolescent and young adult patients mirrored the outcomes of the overall study population.CONCLUSIONS: Despite generally favorable outcomes, 2-year survivors of auto-HCT for cHL or DLBCL have an excess late-mortality risk in comparison with the general population and experience an assortment of late complications.
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| 5. |
- Qayed, Muna, et al.
(författare)
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Influence of Age on Acute and Chronic GVHD in Children Undergoing HLA-Identical Sibling Bone Marrow Transplantation for Acute Leukemia : Implications for Prophylaxis
- 2018
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Ingår i: Biology of blood and marrow transplantation. - : Elsevier BV. - 1083-8791 .- 1523-6536. ; 24:3, s. 521-528
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Relapse remains the major cause of mortality after hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) for pediatric acute leukemia. Previous research has suggested that reducing the intensity of calcineurin inhibitor-based graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) prophylaxis may be an effective strategy for abrogating the risk of relapse in pediatric patients undergoing matched sibling donor (MSD) HCT. We reasoned that the benefits of this strategy could be maximized by selectively applying it to those patients least likely to develop GVHD. We conducted a study of risk factors for GVHD, to risk-stratify patients based on age. Patients age <18 years with leukemia who received myeloablative, T cell-replete MSD bone marrow transplantation and calcineurin inhibitor-based GVHD prophylaxis between 2000 and 2013 and were entered into the Center for International Blood and Marrow Transplant Research registry were included. The cumulative incidence of grade II-IV acute GVHD (aGVHD) was 19%, that of grade II-IV aGVHD 7%, and that of chronic GVHD (cGVHD) was 16%. Compared with age 13 to 18 years, age 2 to 12 years was associated with a lower risk of grade II-IV aGVHD (hazard ratio [HR], .42; 95% confidence interval [CI], .26 to .70; P = .0008), grade II-IV aGVHD (HR, .24; 95% CI, .10 to .56; P = .001), and cGVHD (HR, .32; 95% CI, .19 to .54; P < .001). Compared with 2000-2004, the risk of grade II-IV aGVHD was lower in children undergoing transplantation in 2005-2008 (HR, .36; 95% CI, .20 to .65; P = .0007) and in 2009-2013 (HR, .24; 95% CI. .11 to .53; P = .0004). Similarly, the risk of grade III-IV aGVHD was lower in children undergoing transplantation in 2005-2008 (HR, .23; 95% CI, .08 to .65; P = .0056) and 2009-2013 (HR, .16; 95% CI, .04 to .67; P = .0126) compared with those doing so in 2000-2004. We conclude that aGVHD rates have decreased significantly over time, and that children age 2 to 12 years are at very low risk for aGVHD and cGVHD. These results should be validated in an independent analysis, because these patients with high-risk malignancies may be good candidates for trials of reduced GVHD prophylaxis.
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| 6. |
- Radivoyevitch, Tomas, et al.
(författare)
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Risk of acute myeloid leukemia and myelodysplastic syndrome after autotransplants for lymphomas and plasma cell myeloma
- 2018
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Ingår i: Leukemia Research. - : Elsevier BV. - 0145-2126 .- 1873-5835. ; 74, s. 130-136
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Exposures to DNA-damaging drugs and ionizing radiations increase risks of acute myeloid leukemia (AML) and myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS).Methods: 9028 recipients of hematopoietic cell autotransplants (1995-2010) for Hodgkin lymphoma (HL; n=916), non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL; n=3546) and plasma cell myeloma (PCM; n=4566), reported to the CIBMTR, were analyzed for risk of subsequent AML or MDS.Results: 335 MDS/ AML cases were diagnosed posttransplant (3.7%). Variables associated with an increased risk for AML or MDS in multivariate analyses were: (1) conditioning with total body radiation versus chemotherapy alone for HL (HR=4.0; 95% confidence interval [1.4, 11.6]) and NHL (HR=2.5 [1.1, 2.5]); (2) >= 3 versus 1 line of chemotherapy for NHL (HR=1.9 [1.3, 2.8]); and (3) subjects with NHL transplanted in 2005-2010 versus 1995-1999 (HR=2.1 [1.5, 3.1]). Using Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) data, we found risks for AML/ MDS in HL, NHL and PCM to be 5-10 times the background rate. In contrast, relative risks were 10-50 for AML and approximately 100 for MDS in the autotransplant cohort.Conclusions: There are substantial risks of AML and MDS after autotransplants for HL, NHL and PCM.
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| 7. |
- Bejanyan, Nelli, et al.
(författare)
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Pretransplant Consolidation Is Not Beneficial for Adults with ALL Undergoing Myeloablative Allogeneic Transplantation
- 2018
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Ingår i: Biology of blood and marrow transplantation. - : Elsevier BV. - 1083-8791 .- 1523-6536. ; 24:5, s. 945-955
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (alloHCT) is curative for patients with acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) who achieve complete remission (CR1) with chemotherapy. However, the benefit of consolidation chemotherapy remains uncertain in patients undergoing alloHCT. We compared clinical outcomes of 524 adult patients with ALL in CR1 who received ≥2 (n = 109), 1 (n = 93), or 0 cycles (n = 322) of consolidation before myeloablative alloHCT from 2008 to 2012. As expected, time to alloHCT was longer with increasing cycles of consolidation. Patients receiving ≥2, 1, or 0 cycles of consolidation had an adjusted 3-year cumulative incidence of relapse of 20%, 27%, and 22%; 1-year transplant-related mortality (TRM) of 16%, 18%, and 23%; adjusted 3-year leukemia-free survival (LFS) of 54%, 48%, and 47%; and 3-year overall survival (OS) of 63%, 59%, and 54% (all P values >.40). Multivariable analysis confirmed that consolidation was not prognostic for LFS (relative risk, 1.20, 95% confidence interval, .86 to 1.67; P = .28 for no consolidation; RR, 1.18, 95% confidence interval, .79 to 1.76; P = .41 for 1 cycle versus ≥2 cycles = reference). Similarly, consolidation was not associated with OS, relapse, TRM, or graft-versus-host disease. We conclude that consolidation chemotherapy does not appear to provide added benefit in adult ALL patients with available donors who undergo myeloablative alloHCT in CR1.
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| 8. |
- Ng-Kamstra, J. S., et al.
(författare)
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Perioperative mortality rates in low-income and middle-income countries: a systematic review and meta-analysis
- 2018
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Ingår i: Bmj Global Health. - : BMJ. - 2059-7908. ; 3:3
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Introduction The Lancet Commission on Global Surgery proposed the perioperative mortality rate (POMR) as one of the six key indicators of the strength of a country's surgical system. Despite its widespread use in high-income settings, few studies have described procedure-specific POMR across low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). We aimed to estimate POMR across a wide range of surgical procedures in LMICs. We also describe how POMR is defined and reported in the LMIC literature to provide recommendations for future monitoring in resource-constrained settings. Methods We did a systematic review of studies from LMICs published from 2009 to 2014 reporting POMR for any surgical procedure. We extracted select variables in duplicate from each included study and pooled estimates of POMR by type of procedure using random-effects meta-analysis of proportions and the Freeman-Tukey double arcsine transformation to stabilise variances. Results We included 985 studies conducted across 83 LMICs, covering 191 types of surgical procedures performed on 1 020 869 patients. Pooled POMR ranged from less than 0.1% for appendectomy, cholecystectomy and caesarean delivery to 20%-27% for typhoid intestinal perforation, intracranial haemorrhage and operative head injury. We found no consistent associations between procedure-specific POMR and Human Development Index (HDI) or income-group apart from emergency peripartum hysterectomy POMR, which appeared higher in low-income countries. Inpatient mortality was the most commonly used definition, though only 46.2% of studies explicitly defined the time frame during which deaths accrued. Conclusions Efforts to improve access to surgical care in LMICs should be accompanied by investment in improving the quality and safety of care. To improve the usefulness of POMR as a safety benchmark, standard reporting items should be included with any POMR estimate. Choosing a basket of procedures for which POMR is tracked may offer institutions and countries the standardisation required to meaningfully compare surgical outcomes across contexts and improve population health outcomes.
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| 9. |
- Nikiforow, Sarah, et al.
(författare)
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Upper gastrointestinal acute graft-versus-host disease adds minimal prognostic value in isolation or with other graft-versus-host disease symptoms as currently diagnosed and treated.
- 2018
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Ingår i: Haematologica. - : Ferrata Storti Foundation (Haematologica). - 0390-6078 .- 1592-8721. ; 103:10, s. 1708-1719
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Upper gastrointestinal acute graft-versus-host disease is reported in approximately 30% of hematopoietic stem cell transplant recipients developing acute graft-versus-host disease. Currently classified as Grade II in consensus criteria, upper gastrointestinal acute graft-versus-host disease is often treated with systemic immunosuppression. We reviewed the Center for International Blood and Marrow Transplant Research database to assess the prognostic implications of upper gastrointestinal acute graft-versus-host disease in isolation or with other acute graft-versus-host disease manifestations. 8567 adult recipients of myeloablative allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplant receiving T-cell replete grafts for acute leukemia, chronic myeloid leukemia or myelodysplastic syndrome between 2000 and 2012 were analyzed. 51% of transplants were from unrelated donors. Reported upper gastrointestinal acute graft-versus-host disease incidence was 12.1%; 2.7% of recipients had isolated upper gastrointestinal acute graft-versus-host disease, of whom 95% received systemic steroids. Patients with isolated upper gastrointestinal involvement had similar survival, disease-free survival, transplant-related mortality, and relapse as patients with Grades 0, I, or II acute graft-versus-host disease. Unrelated donor recipients with isolated upper gastrointestinal acute graft-versus-host disease had less subsequent chronic graft-versus-host disease than those with Grades I or II disease (P=0.016 and P=0.0004, respectively). Upper gastrointestinal involvement added no significant prognostic information when present in addition to other manifestations of Grades I or II acute graft-versus-host disease. If upper gastrointestinal symptoms were reclassified as Grade 0 or I, 425 of 2083 patients (20.4%) with Grade II disease would be downgraded, potentially impacting the interpretation of clinical trial outcomes. Defining upper gastrointestinal acute graft-versus-host disease as a Grade II entity, as it is currently diagnosed and treated, is not strongly supported by this analysis. The general approach to diagnosis, treatment and grading of upper gastrointestinal symptoms and their impact on subsequent acute graft-versus-host disease therapy warrants reevaluation.
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