| 1. |
- Bett, Bernard, et al.
(författare)
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Spatiotemporal analysis of historical records (2001-2012) on dengue fever in Vietnam and development of a statistical model for forecasting risk
- 2019
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Ingår i: PLOS ONE. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1932-6203. ; 14:11
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Dengue fever is the most widespread infectious disease of humans transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes. It is the leading cause of hospitalization and death in children in the Southeast Asia and western Pacific regions. We analyzed surveillance records from health centers in Vietnam collected between 2001-2012 to determine seasonal trends, develop risk maps and an incidence forecasting model.METHODS: The data were analyzed using a hierarchical spatial Bayesian model that approximates its posterior parameter distributions using the integrated Laplace approximation algorithm (INLA). Meteorological, altitude and land cover (LC) data were used as predictors. The data were grouped by province (n = 63) and month (n = 144) and divided into training (2001-2009) and validation (2010-2012) sets. Thirteen meteorological variables, 7 land cover data and altitude were considered as predictors. Only significant predictors were kept in the final multivariable model. Eleven dummy variables representing month were also fitted to account for seasonal effects. Spatial and temporal effects were accounted for using Besag-York-Mollie (BYM) and autoregressive (1) models. Their levels of significance were analyzed using deviance information criterion (DIC). The model was validated based on the Theil's coefficient which compared predicted and observed incidence estimated using the validation data. Dengue incidence predictions for 2010-2012 were also used to generate risk maps.RESULTS: The mean monthly dengue incidence during the period was 6.94 cases (SD 14.49) per 100,000 people. Analyses on the temporal trends of the disease showed regular seasonal epidemics that were interrupted every 3 years (specifically in July 2004, July 2007 and September 2010) by major fluctuations in incidence. Monthly mean minimum temperature, rainfall, area under urban settlement/build-up areas and altitude were significant in the final model. Minimum temperature and rainfall had non-linear effects and lagging them by two months provided a better fitting model compared to using unlagged variables. Forecasts for the validation period closely mirrored the observed data and accurately captured the troughs and peaks of dengue incidence trajectories. A favorable Theil's coefficient of inequality of 0.22 was generated.CONCLUSIONS: The study identified temperature, rainfall, altitude and area under urban settlement as being significant predictors of dengue incidence. The statistical model fitted the data well based on Theil's coefficient of inequality, and risk maps generated from its predictions identified most of the high-risk provinces throughout the country.
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| 2. |
- Jakobsen, Frida, et al.
(författare)
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Urban livestock-keeping and dengue in urban and peri-urban Hanoi, Vietnam.
- 2019
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Ingår i: PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1935-2727 .- 1935-2735. ; 13:11
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Urban livestock provides an important source of food and income, but it may increase the risks for disease transmission. Vectors, such as mosquitoes, might increase and thereby cause an enhanced transmission of infectious diseases, such as dengue fever; considered the most important mosquito-borne viral disease globally. This cross-sectional study evaluated the awareness of dengue fever and investigated how the presence of dengue vectors is affected by the keeping of livestock in urban households in the city of Hanoi, Vietnam. From February to March 2018, during the season of lowest occurrence of dengue in Hanoi, 140 households were interviewed, of which 69 kept livestock. A general trend was observed; respondents living in the Dan Phuong district, a peri-urban district, had better knowledge and practice regarding dengue as compared to the urban Ha Dong district. In total, 3899 mosquitoes were collected and identified, of which 52 (1.33%) were Aedes species. A significant difference between the two districts was observed, with more households in Ha Dong having Aedes spp. mosquitoes (p = 0.02) and a higher incidence of dengue fever (p = 0.001). There was no significant association between livestock-rearing and the presence of Aedes spp. mosquitoes (p = 0.955), or between livestock-rearing and the incidence of dengue fever (p = 0.08). In conclusion, this study could not find any indication that households keeping livestock were at higher risk of dengue virus infections in Hanoi during the season of lowest occurrence of dengue, but clearly indicated the need of more information provided to urban inhabitants, particularly on personal protection.
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| 3. |
- Huu, Tung Pham, et al.
(författare)
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Secrecy Performance Analysis of Cooperative NOMA Networks With Active Protection under alpha - mu Fading
- 2019
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Ingår i: 2019 12TH INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON ADVANCED TECHNOLOGIES FOR COMMUNICATIONS (ATC 2019). - : IEEE. - 9781728123929 ; , s. 215-220
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- In this paper, we analyze the secrecy performance of a cooperative communication wireless system using non-orthogonal multiple access (NOMA) over alpha - mu fading channel. A new cooperative NOMA scheme is proposed to protect the confidential communication that is transmitted from a source to two users by the help of a relay under the monitoring of an eavesdropper (EAV). In particular, the legitimate user generates jamming signals to the EAV while the source transmits the signals to the relay and the source sends jamming signals to the EAV while the relay forwards the signals to the users. In order to evaluate the secrecy performance, the physical layer security (PLS) in term of the secrecy outage probability (SOP) for the active protection scheme (APS) is investigated and compared to that for a benchmark non-protection scheme (NPS). Simulation results show that the APS can effectively enhance the secrecy performance.
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