| 1. |
- Chen, Gongbo, et al.
(author)
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Mortality risk attributable to wildfire-related PM2·5 pollution : a global time series study in 749 locations
- 2021
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In: The Lancet Planetary Health. - : Elsevier. - 2542-5196. ; 5:9, s. e579-e587
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Many regions of the world are now facing more frequent and unprecedentedly large wildfires. However, the association between wildfire-related PM2·5 and mortality has not been well characterised. We aimed to comprehensively assess the association between short-term exposure to wildfire-related PM2·5 and mortality across various regions of the world.METHODS: For this time series study, data on daily counts of deaths for all causes, cardiovascular causes, and respiratory causes were collected from 749 cities in 43 countries and regions during 2000-16. Daily concentrations of wildfire-related PM2·5 were estimated using the three-dimensional chemical transport model GEOS-Chem at a 0·25° × 0·25° resolution. The association between wildfire-related PM2·5 exposure and mortality was examined using a quasi-Poisson time series model in each city considering both the current-day and lag effects, and the effect estimates were then pooled using a random-effects meta-analysis. Based on these pooled effect estimates, the population attributable fraction and relative risk (RR) of annual mortality due to acute wildfire-related PM2·5 exposure was calculated.FINDINGS: 65·6 million all-cause deaths, 15·1 million cardiovascular deaths, and 6·8 million respiratory deaths were included in our analyses. The pooled RRs of mortality associated with each 10 μg/m3 increase in the 3-day moving average (lag 0-2 days) of wildfire-related PM2·5 exposure were 1·019 (95% CI 1·016-1·022) for all-cause mortality, 1·017 (1·012-1·021) for cardiovascular mortality, and 1·019 (1·013-1·025) for respiratory mortality. Overall, 0·62% (95% CI 0·48-0·75) of all-cause deaths, 0·55% (0·43-0·67) of cardiovascular deaths, and 0·64% (0·50-0·78) of respiratory deaths were annually attributable to the acute impacts of wildfire-related PM2·5 exposure during the study period.INTERPRETATION: Short-term exposure to wildfire-related PM2·5 was associated with increased risk of mortality. Urgent action is needed to reduce health risks from the increasing wildfires.
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| 2. |
- Meng, Xia, et al.
(author)
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Short term associations of ambient nitrogen dioxide with daily total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality : multilocation analysis in 398 cities.
- 2021
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In: The BMJ. - : BMJ Publishing Group Ltd. - 1756-1833. ; 372
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the short term associations between nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality across multiple countries/regions worldwide, using a uniform analytical protocol.DESIGN: Two stage, time series approach, with overdispersed generalised linear models and multilevel meta-analysis.SETTING: 398 cities in 22 low to high income countries/regions.MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Daily deaths from total (62.8 million), cardiovascular (19.7 million), and respiratory (5.5 million) causes between 1973 and 2018.RESULTS: On average, a 10 μg/m3 increase in NO2 concentration on lag 1 day (previous day) was associated with 0.46% (95% confidence interval 0.36% to 0.57%), 0.37% (0.22% to 0.51%), and 0.47% (0.21% to 0.72%) increases in total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality, respectively. These associations remained robust after adjusting for co-pollutants (particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter ≤10 μm or ≤2.5 μm (PM10 and PM2.5, respectively), ozone, sulfur dioxide, and carbon monoxide). The pooled concentration-response curves for all three causes were almost linear without discernible thresholds. The proportion of deaths attributable to NO2 concentration above the counterfactual zero level was 1.23% (95% confidence interval 0.96% to 1.51%) across the 398 cities.CONCLUSIONS: This multilocation study provides key evidence on the independent and linear associations between short term exposure to NO2 and increased risk of total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality, suggesting that health benefits would be achieved by tightening the guidelines and regulatory limits of NO2.
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| 3. |
- Schrijver, Lieske H, et al.
(author)
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Oral contraceptive use and ovarian cancer risk for BRCA1/2 mutation carriers : an international cohort study
- 2021
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In: American Journal of Obstetrics and Gynecology. - : Elsevier BV. - 1097-6868 .- 0002-9378. ; 225:1, s. 1-51
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Ovarian cancer risk in BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers has been shown to decrease with longer duration of oral contraceptive preparations (OCPs) use. While the effects of OCPs in the general population are well established (∼50% reduction), the estimated risk reduction in mutation carriers is much less precise due to potential bias and small sample sizes. In addition, only a few studies have examined the associations between duration of use, time since last use, starting age, and calendar year of start with risk of ovarian cancer.OBJECTIVE(S): To investigate in more detail the associations between various characteristics of OCP use and risk of ovarian cancer, to provide health care providers and carriers with better risk estimates.STUDY DESIGN: In this international retrospective study, ovarian cancer risk associations were assessed using OCP data on 3,989 BRCA1 and 2,445 BRCA2 mutation carriers. Age-dependent weighted Cox regression analyses were stratified by study and birth cohort and included breast cancer diagnosis as covariate. To minimize survival bias, analyses were left-truncated at 5 years before baseline questionnaire. Separate analysis were conducted for each of the aspects of OCP use and in a multivariate analysis including all these aspects. In addition, the analysis of duration of OCP use was stratified by recency of use.RESULTS: OCPs were less often used by mutation carriers who were diagnosed with ovarian cancer (Ever use: BRCA1 58.6%, BRCA2 53.5%) than by unaffected carriers (Ever use: BRCA1 88.9%, BRCA2 80.7%. The median duration of use was 7 years for both BRCA1 and BRCA2 carriers who developed ovarian cancer, and 9 and 8 years for ovarian cancer unaffected BRCA1 and BRCA2 carriers, respectively. For BRCA1 mutation carriers univariate analyses showed that both a longer duration of OCP use and more recent use of OCPs were inversely associated with risk of ovarian cancer. However, in multivariate analyses including duration of use, age at first use and time since last use, duration of use proved to be the prominent protective factor (compared with <5 years, 5-9 years HR=0.67;95%CI 0.40-1.12, 10+ years HR=0.37;95%CI 0.19-0.73; ptrend=0.008). The inverse association between duration of use and ovarian cancer risk persisted for more than 15 years (Duration of ≥10 years; BRCA1: <15 years since last use: HR=0.24 95%CI 0.14-0.43, 15+ years since last use: HR 0.56 95%CI 0.18-0.59). Univariate results for BRCA2 mutation carriers were similar, but due to limit sample size inconclusive.CONCLUSION: For BRCA1 mutation carriers, a longer duration of OCP use is associated with a greater reduction of ovarian cancer risk and the protection is long term.
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| 4. |
- Tobías, Aurelio, et al.
(author)
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Geographical Variations of the Minimum Mortality Temperature at a Global Scale : A Multicountry Study
- 2021
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In: Environmental epidemiology. - : Wolters Kluwer. - 2474-7882. ; 5:5
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Minimum mortality temperature (MMT) is an important indicator to assess the temperature-mortality association, indicating long-term adaptation to local climate. Limited evidence about the geographical variability of the MMT is available at a global scale.Methods: We collected data from 658 communities in 43 countries under different climates. We estimated temperature-mortality associations to derive the MMT for each community using Poisson regression with distributed lag nonlinear models. We investigated the variation in MMT by climatic zone using a mixed-effects meta-analysis and explored the association with climatic and socioeconomic indicators.Results: The geographical distribution of MMTs varied considerably by country between 14.2 and 31.1 °C decreasing by latitude. For climatic zones, the MMTs increased from alpine (13.0 °C) to continental (19.3 °C), temperate (21.7 °C), arid (24.5 °C), and tropical (26.5 °C). The MMT percentiles (MMTPs) corresponding to the MMTs decreased from temperate (79.5th) to continental (75.4th), arid (68.0th), tropical (58.5th), and alpine (41.4th). The MMTs indreased by 0.8 °C for a 1 °C rise in a community's annual mean temperature, and by 1 °C for a 1 °C rise in its SD. While the MMTP decreased by 0.3 centile points for a 1 °C rise in a community's annual mean temperature and by 1.3 for a 1 °C rise in its SD.Conclusions: The geographical distribution of the MMTs and MMTPs is driven mainly by the mean annual temperature, which seems to be a valuable indicator of overall adaptation across populations. Our results suggest that populations have adapted to the average temperature, although there is still more room for adaptation.
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| 5. |
- Tobin, John J., et al.
(author)
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The VLA/ALMA Nascent Disk and Multiplicity (VANDAM) Survey of Orion Protostars. II. A Statistical Characterization of Class 0 and Class i Protostellar Disks
- 2020
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In: Astrophysical Journal. - : American Astronomical Society. - 1538-4357 .- 0004-637X. ; 890:2
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We have conducted a survey of 328 protostars in the Orion molecular clouds with the Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array at 0.87 mm at a resolution of ∼0.″1 (40 au), including observations with the Very Large Array at 9 mm toward 148 protostars at a resolution of ∼0.″08 (32 au). This is the largest multiwavelength survey of protostars at this resolution by an order of magnitude. We use the dust continuum emission at 0.87 and 9 mm to measure the dust disk radii and masses toward the Class 0, Class I, and flat-spectrum protostars, characterizing the evolution of these disk properties in the protostellar phase. The mean dust disk radii for the Class 0, Class I, and flat-spectrum protostars are 44.9-3.4+5.8, 37.0-3.0+4.9, and 28.5-2.3+3.7 au, respectively, and the mean protostellar dust disk masses are 25.9-4.0+7.7, 14.9-2.2+3.8, 11.6-1.9+3.5 M⊙, respectively. The decrease in dust disk masses is expected from disk evolution and accretion, but the decrease in disk radii may point to the initial conditions of star formation not leading to the systematic growth of disk radii or that radial drift is keeping the dust disk sizes small. At least 146 protostellar disks (35% of 379 detected 0.87 mm continuum sources plus 42 nondetections) have disk radii greater than 50 au in our sample. These properties are not found to vary significantly between different regions within Orion. The protostellar dust disk mass distributions are systematically larger than those of Class II disks by a factor of >4, providing evidence that the cores of giant planets may need to at least begin their formation during the protostellar phase.
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| 6. |
- Zhao, Qi, et al.
(author)
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Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with non-optimal ambient temperatures from 2000 to 2019 : a three-stage modelling study
- 2021
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In: The Lancet Planetary Health. - : Elsevier. - 2542-5196. ; 5:7, s. e415-e425
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Exposure to cold or hot temperatures is associated with premature deaths. We aimed to evaluate the global, regional, and national mortality burden associated with non-optimal ambient temperatures.METHODS: In this modelling study, we collected time-series data on mortality and ambient temperatures from 750 locations in 43 countries and five meta-predictors at a grid size of 0·5° × 0·5° across the globe. A three-stage analysis strategy was used. First, the temperature-mortality association was fitted for each location by use of a time-series regression. Second, a multivariate meta-regression model was built between location-specific estimates and meta-predictors. Finally, the grid-specific temperature-mortality association between 2000 and 2019 was predicted by use of the fitted meta-regression and the grid-specific meta-predictors. Excess deaths due to non-optimal temperatures, the ratio between annual excess deaths and all deaths of a year (the excess death ratio), and the death rate per 100 000 residents were then calculated for each grid across the world. Grids were divided according to regional groupings of the UN Statistics Division.FINDINGS: Globally, 5 083 173 deaths (95% empirical CI [eCI] 4 087 967-5 965 520) were associated with non-optimal temperatures per year, accounting for 9·43% (95% eCI 7·58-11·07) of all deaths (8·52% [6·19-10·47] were cold-related and 0·91% [0·56-1·36] were heat-related). There were 74 temperature-related excess deaths per 100 000 residents (95% eCI 60-87). The mortality burden varied geographically. Of all excess deaths, 2 617 322 (51·49%) occurred in Asia. Eastern Europe had the highest heat-related excess death rate and Sub-Saharan Africa had the highest cold-related excess death rate. From 2000-03 to 2016-19, the global cold-related excess death ratio changed by -0·51 percentage points (95% eCI -0·61 to -0·42) and the global heat-related excess death ratio increased by 0·21 percentage points (0·13-0·31), leading to a net reduction in the overall ratio. The largest decline in overall excess death ratio occurred in South-eastern Asia, whereas excess death ratio fluctuated in Southern Asia and Europe.INTERPRETATION: Non-optimal temperatures are associated with a substantial mortality burden, which varies spatiotemporally. Our findings will benefit international, national, and local communities in developing preparedness and prevention strategies to reduce weather-related impacts immediately and under climate change scenarios.
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