| 1. |
- Anandhi, Aavudai, et al.
(author)
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Evaluation of Climate Model Performance for Water Supply Studies : Case Study for New York City
- 2019
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In: Journal of water resources planning and management. - : ASCE-AMER SOC CIVIL ENGINEERS. - 0733-9496 .- 1943-5452. ; 145:8
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Evaluating the suitability of data from global climate models (GCMs) for use as input in water supply models is an important step in the larger task of evaluating the effects of climate change on water resources management such as that of water supply operations. The purpose of this paper is to present the process by which GCMs were evaluated and incorporated into the New York City (NYC) water supply's planning activities and to provide conclusions regarding the overall effectiveness of the ranking procedure used in the evaluation. A suite of GCMs participating in Phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) were evaluated for use in climate change projections in the watersheds of the NYC water supply that provide 90% of the water consumed by NYC. GCM data were aggregated using the seven land-grid points surrounding NYC watersheds, and these data with a daily timestep were evaluated seasonally using probability-based skill scores for various combinations of five meteorological variables (precipitation, average, maximum and minimum temperatures, and wind speed). These are the key variables for the NYC water supply because they affect the timing and magnitude of water, energy, sediment, and nutrient fluxes into the reservoirs as well as in simulating watershed hydrology and reservoir hydrodynamics. We attempted to choose a subset of GCMs based on the average of several skill metrics that compared baseline (20C3M) GCM results to observations. Skill metrics for the study indicate that the skill in simulating the frequency distributions of measured data is highest for temperature and lowest for wind. However, our attempts to identify the best model or subgroup of models were not successful because we found that no single model performs best when considering all of the variables and seasons.
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| 2. |
- Brentrup, Jennifer A., et al.
(author)
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The potential of high-frequency profiling to assess vertical and seasonal patterns of phytoplankton dynamics in lakes : an extension of the Plankton Ecology Group (PEG) model
- 2016
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In: Inland Waters. - 2044-2041 .- 2044-205X. ; 6:4, s. 565-580
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The use of high-frequency sensors on profiling buoys to investigate physical, chemical, and biological processes in lakes is increasing rapidly. Profiling buoys with automated winches and sensors that collect high-frequency chlorophyll fluorescence (ChlF) profiles in 11 lakes in the Global Lake Ecological Observatory Network (GLEON) allowed the study of the vertical and temporal distribution of ChlF, including the formation of subsurface chlorophyll maxima (SSCM). The effectiveness of 3 methods for sampling phytoplankton distributions in lakes, including (1) manual profiles, (2) single-depth buoys, and (3) profiling buoys were assessed. High-frequency ChlF surface data and profiles were compared to predictions from the Plankton Ecology Group (PEG) model. The depth-integrated ChlF dynamics measured by the profiling buoy data revealed a greater complexity that neither conventional sampling nor the generalized PEG model captured. Conventional sampling techniques would have missed SSCM in 7 of 11 study lakes. Although surface-only ChlF data underestimated average water column ChlF, at times by nearly 2-fold in 4 of the lakes, overall there was a remarkable similarity between surface and mean water column data. Contrary to the PEG model's proposed negligible role for physical control of phytoplankton during the growing season, thermal structure and light availability were closely associated with ChlF seasonal depth distribution. Thus, an extension of the PEG model is proposed, with a new conceptual framework that explicitly includes physical metrics to better predict SSCM formation in lakes and highlight when profiling buoys are especially informative.
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| 3. |
- Cremona, Fabien, et al.
(author)
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Numerical Exploration of the Planktonic to Benthic Primary Production Ratios in Lakes of the Baltic Sea Catchment
- 2016
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In: Ecosystems (New York. Print). - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1432-9840 .- 1435-0629. ; 19:8, s. 1386-1400
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Autotrophic structure refers to the partitioning of whole-ecosystem primary production between benthic and planktonic primary producers. Autotrophic structure remains poorly understood especially because of the paucity of estimates regarding benthic primary production. We used a conceptual model for numerically exploring the autotrophic structure of 13 hemiboreal lakes situated in the Baltic Sea catchment. We also used diel variations in primary production profiles to graphically evaluate levels of light and/or nutrient limitation in lakes. The input morphometric data, light extinction coefficients and dissolved carbon parameters were mostly obtained from in situ measurements. Results revealed that cross- and within-lake autotrophic structure varied greatly: one lake was clearly dominated by benthic production, and three lakes by phytoplankton production. In the rest, phytoplankton production was generally dominant but switch to benthic dominance was possible. The modelled primary production profiles varied according to lake water clarity and bathymetry. Our results clearly indicate that the relative contribution of benthic primary production to whole-lake primary production should be taken into account in studies about hemiboreal and boreal lakes.
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| 4. |
- Engel, Fabian, et al.
(author)
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Phytoplankton gross primary production increases along cascading impoundments in a temperate, low-discharge river : Insights from high frequency water quality monitoring
- 2019
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In: Scientific Reports. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2045-2322. ; 9
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Damming alters carbon processing along river continua. Estimating carbon transport along rivers intersected by multiple dams requires an understanding of the effects of cascading impoundments on the riverine metabolism. We analyzed patterns of riverine metabolism and phytoplankton biomass (chlorophyll a; Chla) along a 74.4-km river reach intersected by six low-head navigation dams. Calculating gross primary production (GPP) from continuous measurements of dissolved oxygen concentration, we found a maximum increase in the mean GPP by a factor of 3.5 (absolute difference of 0.45 g C m−3 d−1) along the first 26.5 km of the study reach, while Chla increased over the entire reach by a factor of 2.9 (8.7 µg l−1). In the intermittently stratified section of the deepest impoundment the mean GPP between the 1 and 4 m water layer differed by a factor of 1.4 (0.31 g C m−3 d−1). Due to the strong increase in GPP, the river featured a wide range of conditions characteristic of low- to medium-production rivers. We suggest that cascading impoundments have the potential to stimulate riverine GPP, and conclude that phytoplankton CO2 uptake is an important carbon flux in the river Saar, where a considerable amount of organic matter is of autochthonous origin.
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| 5. |
- Frieler, K, et al.
(author)
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Assessing the impacts of 1.5° C global warming - simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b)
- 2017
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In: Geoscientific Model Development. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1991-959X .- 1991-9603. ; 10, s. 4321-4345
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- In Paris, France, December 2015, the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Con- vention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the Inter- governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to provide a “special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 â—ŠC above pre-industrial levels and related global green- house gas emission pathwaysâ€. In Nairobi, Kenya, April 2016, the IPCC panel accepted the invitation. Here we de- scribe the response devised within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) to provide tailored, cross-sectorally consistent impact projections to broaden the scientific basis for the report. The simulation protocol is de- signed to allow for (1) separation of the impacts of histori- cal warming starting from pre-industrial conditions from im- pacts of other drivers such as historical land-use changes (based on pre-industrial and historical impact model simula- tions); (2) quantification of the impacts of additional warm- ing up to 1.5 â—ŠC, including a potential overshoot and long- term impacts up to 2299, and comparison to higher lev- els of global mean temperature change (based on the low- emissions Representative Concentration Pathway RCP2.6 and a no-mitigation pathway RCP6.0) with socio-economic conditions fixed at 2005 levels; and (3) assessment of the cli- mate effects based on the same climate scenarios while ac- counting for simultaneous changes in socio-economic con- ditions following the middle-of-the-road Shared Socioeco- nomic Pathway (SSP2, Fricko et al., 2016) and in particu- lar differential bioenergy requirements associated with the transformation of the energy system to comply with RCP2.6 compared to RCP6.0.With the aim of providing the scientific basis for an aggregation of impacts across sectors and anal- ysis of cross-sectoral interactions that may dampen or am- plify sectoral impacts, the protocol is designed to facilitate consistent impact projections from a range of impact mod- els across different sectors (global and regional hydrology, lakes, global crops, global vegetation, regional forests, global and regional marine ecosystems and fisheries, global and regional coastal infrastructure, energy supply and demand, temperature-related mortality, and global terrestrial biodiver- sity).
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| 6. |
- Hampton, Stephanie E., et al.
(author)
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Ecology under lake ice
- 2017
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In: Ecology Letters. - : Wiley. - 1461-023X .- 1461-0248. ; 20:1, s. 98-111
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Research review (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Winter conditions are rapidly changing in temperate ecosystems, particularly for those that experience periods of snow and ice cover. Relatively little is known of winter ecology in these systems, due to a historical research focus on summer ‘growing seasons’. We executed the first global quantitative synthesis on under-ice lake ecology, including 36 abiotic and biotic variables from 42 research groups and 101 lakes, examining seasonal differences and connections as well as how seasonal differences vary with geophysical factors. Plankton were more abundant under ice than expected; mean winter values were 43.2% of summer values for chlorophyll a, 15.8% of summer phytoplankton biovolume and 25.3% of summer zooplankton density. Dissolved nitrogen concentrations were typically higher during winter, and these differences were exaggerated in smaller lakes. Lake size also influenced winter-summer patterns for dissolved organic carbon (DOC), with higher winter DOC in smaller lakes. At coarse levels of taxonomic aggregation, phytoplankton and zooplankton community composition showed few systematic differences between seasons, although literature suggests that seasonal differences are frequently lake-specific, species-specific, or occur at the level of functional group. Within the subset of lakes that had longer time series, winter influenced the subsequent summer for some nutrient variables and zooplankton biomass.
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| 7. |
- Mantzouki, Evanthia, et al.
(author)
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A European Multi Lake Survey dataset of environmental variables , phytoplankton pigments and cyanotoxins
- 2018
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In: Scientific Data. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2052-4463. ; 5:October, s. 1-13
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Under ongoing climate change and increasing anthropogenic activity, which continuously challenge ecosystem resilience, an in-depth understanding of ecological processes is urgently needed. Lakes, as providers of numerous ecosystem services, face multiple stressors that threaten their functioning. Harmful cyanobacterial blooms are a persistent problem resulting from nutrient pollution and climate-change induced stressors, like poor transparency, increased water temperature and enhanced stratification. Consistency in data collection and analysis methods is necessary to achieve fully comparable datasets and for statistical validity, avoiding issues linked to disparate data sources. The European Multi Lake Survey (EMLS) in summer 2015 was an initiative among scientists from 27 countries to collect and analyse lake physical, chemical and biological variables in a fully standardized manner. This database includes in-situ lake variables along with nutrient, pigment and cyanotoxin data of 369 lakes in Europe, which were centrally analysed in dedicated laboratories. Publishing the EMLS methods and dataset might inspire similar initiatives to study across large geographic areas that will contribute to better understanding lake responses in a changing environment.
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| 8. |
- Mantzouki, Evanthia, et al.
(author)
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Temperature Effects Explain Continental Scale Distribution of Cyanobacterial Toxins
- 2018
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In: Toxins. - : MDPI. - 2072-6651. ; 10:4
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Insight into how environmental change determines the production and distribution of cyanobacterial toxins is necessary for risk assessment. Management guidelines currently focus on hepatotoxins (microcystins). Increasing attention is given to other classes, such as neurotoxins (e.g., anatoxin-a) and cytotoxins (e.g., cylindrospermopsin) due to their potency. Most studies examine the relationship between individual toxin variants and environmental factors, such as nutrients, temperature and light. In summer 2015, we collected samples across Europe to investigate the effect of nutrient and temperature gradients on the variability of toxin production at a continental scale. Direct and indirect effects of temperature were the main drivers of the spatial distribution in the toxins produced by the cyanobacterial community, the toxin concentrations and toxin quota. Generalized linear models showed that a Toxin Diversity Index (TDI) increased with latitude, while it decreased with water stability. Increases in TDI were explained through a significant increase in toxin variants such as MC-YR, anatoxin and cylindrospermopsin, accompanied by a decreasing presence of MC-LR. While global warming continues, the direct and indirect effects of increased lake temperatures will drive changes in the distribution of cyanobacterial toxins in Europe, potentially promoting selection of a few highly toxic species or strains.
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| 9. |
- Marcé, Rafael, et al.
(author)
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Automatic High Frequency Monitoring for Improved Lake and Reservoir Management
- 2016
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In: Environmental Science and Technology. - : American Chemical Society (ACS). - 0013-936X .- 1520-5851. ; 50:20, s. 10780-10794
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Research review (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Recent technological developments have increased the number of variables being monitored in lakes and reservoirs using automatic high frequency monitoring (AHFM). However, design of AHFM systems and posterior data handling and interpretation are currently being developed on a site-by-site and issue-by-issue basis with minimal standardization of protocols or knowledge sharing. As a result, many deployments become short-lived or underutilized, and many new scientific developments that are potentially useful for water management and environmental legislation remain underexplored. This Critical Review bridges scientific uses of AHFM with their applications by providing an overview of the current AHFM capabilities, together with examples of successful applications. We review the use of AHFM for maximizing the provision of ecosystem services supplied by lakes and reservoirs (consumptive and non consumptive uses, food production, and recreation), and for reporting lake status in the EU Water Framework Directive. We also highlight critical issues to enhance the application of AHFM, and suggest the establishment of appropriate networks to facilitate knowledge sharing and technological transfer between potential users. Finally, we give advice on how modern sensor technology can successfully be applied on a larger scale to the management of lakes and reservoirs and maximize the ecosystem services they provide.
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| 10. |
- Moras, Simone, et al.
(author)
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Historical modelling of changes in Lake Erken thermal conditions
- 2019
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In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences. - : COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH. - 1027-5606 .- 1607-7938. ; 23:12, s. 5001-5016
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Historical lake water temperature records are a valuable source of information to assess the influence of climate change on lake thermal structure. However, in most cases such records span a short period of time and/or are incomplete, providing a less credible assessment of change. In this study, the hydrodynamic GOTM (General Ocean Turbulence Model, a hydrodynamic model configured in lake mode) was used to reconstruct daily profiles of water temperature in Lake Erken (Sweden) over the period 1961-2017 using seven climatic parameters as forcing data: wind speed (WS), air temperature (Air T), atmospheric pressure (Air P), relative humidity (RH), cloud cover (CC), precipitation (DP), and shortwave radiation (SWR). The model was calibrated against observed water temperature data collected during the study interval, and the calibrated model revealed a good match between modelled and observed temperature (RMSE = 1.089 degrees C). From the long-term simulations of water temperature, this study focused on detecting possible trends in water temperature over the entire study interval 1961-2017 and in the sub-intervals 1961-1988 and 1989-2017, since an abrupt change in air temperature was detected in 1988. The analysis of the simulated temperature showed that epilimnetic temperature increased on average by 0.444 and 0.792 degrees C per decade in spring and autumn in the sub-interval 1989-2017 Summer epilimnetic temperature increased by 0.351 degrees C per decade over the entire interval 1961-2017. Hypolimnetic temperature increased significantly in spring over the entire interval 1961-2017, by 0.148 and by 0.816 degrees C per decade in autumn in the subinterval 1989-2016. Whole-lake temperature showed a significant increasing trend in the sub-interval 1989-2017 during spring (0.404 degrees C per decade) and autumn (0.789 degrees C per decade, interval 1989-2016), while a significant trend was detected in summer over the entire study interval 1961-2017 (0.239 degrees C per decade). Moreover, this study showed that that changes in the phenology of thermal stratification have occurred over the 57-year period of study. Since 1961, the stability of stratification (Schmidt stability) has increased by 5.365 J M-2 per decade. The duration of thermal stratification has increased by 7.297 d per decade, corresponding to an earlier onset of stratification of similar to 16 d and to a delay of stratification termination of similar to 26 d. The average thermocline depth during stratification became shallower by similar to 1.345 m, and surface-bottom temperature difference increased over time by 0.249 degrees C per decade. The creation of a daily time step water temperature dataset not only provided evidence of changes in Erken thermal structure over the last decades, but is also a valuable resource of information that can help in future research on the ecology of Lake Erken. The use of readily available meteorological data to reconstruct Lake Erken's past water temperature is shown to be a useful method to evaluate long-term changes in lake thermal structure, and it is a method that can be extended to other lakes.
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