| 1. |
- Kanis, J A, et al.
(författare)
-
The use of clinical risk factors enhances the performance of BMD in the prediction of hip and osteoporotic fractures in men and women.
- 2007
-
Ingår i: Osteoporosis international. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0937-941X .- 1433-2965. ; 18:8, s. 1033-46
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- SUMMARY: BMD and clinical risk factors predict hip and other osteoporotic fractures. The combination of clinical risk factors and BMD provide higher specificity and sensitivity than either alone. INTRODUCTION AND HYPOTHESES: To develop a risk assessment tool based on clinical risk factors (CRFs) with and without BMD. METHODS: Nine population-based studies were studied in which BMD and CRFs were documented at baseline. Poisson regression models were developed for hip fracture and other osteoporotic fractures, with and without hip BMD. Fracture risk was expressed as gradient of risk (GR, risk ratio/SD change in risk score). RESULTS: CRFs alone predicted hip fracture with a GR of 2.1/SD at the age of 50 years and decreased with age. The use of BMD alone provided a higher GR (3.7/SD), and was improved further with the combined use of CRFs and BMD (4.2/SD). For other osteoporotic fractures, the GRs were lower than for hip fracture. The GR with CRFs alone was 1.4/SD at the age of 50 years, similar to that provided by BMD (GR = 1.4/SD) and was not markedly increased by the combination (GR = 1.4/SD). The performance characteristics of clinical risk factors with and without BMD were validated in eleven independent population-based cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: The models developed provide the basis for the integrated use of validated clinical risk factors in men and women to aid in fracture risk prediction.
|
|
| 2. |
|
|
| 3. |
- Kaptoge, S., et al.
(författare)
-
Whom to treat? The contribution of vertebral X-rays to risk-based algorithms for fracture prediction. Results from the European Prospective Osteoporosis Study
- 2006
-
Ingår i: Osteoporosis International. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1433-2965 .- 0937-941X. ; 17:9, s. 1369-1381
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Introduction: Vertebral fracture is a strong risk factor for future spine and hip fractures; yet recent data suggest that only 5-20% of subjects with a spine fracture are identified in primary care. We aimed to develop easily applicable algorithms predicting a high risk of future spine fracture in men and women over 50 years of age. Methods: Data was analysed from 5,561 men and women aged 50+ years participating in the European Prospective Osteoporosis Study (EPOS). Lateral thoracic and lumbar spine radiographs were taken at baseline and at an average of 3.8 years later. These were evaluated by an experienced radiologist. The risk of a new (incident) vertebral fracture was modelled as a function of age, number of prevalent vertebral fractures, height loss, sex and other fracture history reported by the subject, including limb fractures occurring between X-rays. Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves were used to compare the predictive ability of models. Results: In a negative binomial regression model without baseline X-ray data, the risk of incident vertebral fracture significantly increased with age [RR 1.74, 95% CI (1.44, 2.10) per decade], height loss [1.08 (1.04, 1.12) per cm decrease], female sex [1.48 (1.05, 2.09)], and recalled fracture history; [1.65 (1.15, 2.38) to 3.03 (1.66, 5.54)] according to fracture site. Baseline radiological assessment of prevalent vertebral fracture significantly improved the areas subtended by ROC curves from 0.71 (0.67, 0.74) to 0.74 (0.70, 0.77) P=0.013 for predicting 1+ incident fracture; and from 0.74 (0.67, 0.81) to 0.83 (0.76, 0.90) P=0.001 for 2+ incident fractures. Age, sex and height loss remained independently predictive. The relative risk of a new vertebral fracture increased with the number of prevalent vertebral fractures present from 3.08 (2.10, 4.52) for 1 fracture to 9.36 (5.72, 15.32) for 3+. At a specificity of 90%, the model including X-ray data improved the sensitivity for predicting 2+ and 1+ incident fractures by 6 and 4 fold respectively compared with random guessing. At 75% specificity the improvements were 3.2 and 2.4 fold respectively. With the modelling restricted to the subjects who had BMD measurements (n=2,409), the AUC for predicting 1+ vs. 0 incident vertebral fractures improved from 0.72 (0.66, 0.79) to 0.76 (0.71, 0.82) upon adding femoral neck BMD (P=0.010). Conclusion: We conclude that for those with existing vertebral fractures, an accurately read spine X-ray will form a central component in future algorithms for targeting treatment, especially to the most vulnerable. The sensitivity of this approach to identifying vertebral fracture cases requiring anti-osteoporosis treatment, even when X-rays are ordered highly selectively, exceeds by a large margin the current standard of practice as recorded anywhere in the world.
|
|
| 4. |
- Kanis, J A, et al.
(författare)
-
Smoking and fracture risk: a meta-analysis.
- 2005
-
Ingår i: Osteoporosis international. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0937-941X .- 1433-2965. ; 16:2, s. 155-62
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Smoking is widely considered a risk factor for future fracture. The aim of this study was to quantify this risk on an international basis and to explore the relationship of this risk with age, sex and bone mineral density (BMD). We studied 59,232 men and women (74% female) from ten prospective cohorts comprising EVOS/EPOS, DOES, CaMos, Rochester, Sheffield, Rotterdam, Kuopio, Hiroshima and two cohorts from Gothenburg. Cohorts were followed for a total of 250,000 person-years. The effect of current or past smoking, on the risk of any fracture, any osteoporotic fracture and hip fracture alone was examined using a Poisson model for each sex from each cohort. Covariates examined were age, sex and BMD. The results of the different studies were merged using the weighted beta-coefficients. Current smoking was associated with a significantly increased risk of any fracture compared to non-smokers (RR=1.25; 95% Confidence Interval (CI)=1.15-1.36). Risk ratio (RR) was adjusted marginally downward when account was taken of BMD, but it remained significantly increased (RR=1.13). For an osteoporotic fracture, the risk was marginally higher (RR=1.29; 95% CI=1.13-1.28). The highest risk was observed for hip fracture (RR=1.84; 95% CI=1.52-2.22), but this was also somewhat lower after adjustment for BMD (RR=1.60; 95% CI=1.27-2.02). Risk ratios were significantly higher in men than in women for all fractures and for osteoporotic fractures, but not for hip fracture. Low BMD accounted for only 23% of the smoking-related risk of hip fracture. Adjustment for body mass index had a small downward effect on risk for all fracture outcomes. For osteoporotic fracture, the risk ratio increased with age, but decreased with age for hip fracture. A smoking history was associated with a significantly increased risk of fracture compared with individuals with no smoking history, but the risk ratios were lower than for current smoking. We conclude that a history of smoking results in fracture risk that is substantially greater than that explained by measurement of BMD. Its validation on an international basis permits the use of this risk factor in case finding strategies.
|
|
| 5. |
- Kanis, J A, et al.
(författare)
-
The use of multiple sites for the diagnosis of osteoporosis.
- 2006
-
Ingår i: Osteoporosis international. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0937-941X .- 1433-2965. ; 17:4, s. 527-34
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- INTRODUCTION: It has been suggested that bone mineral density (BMD) measurements should be made at multiple sites, and that the lowest T-score should be taken for the purpose of diagnosing osteoporosis. PURPOSE: The aim of this study was to examine the use of BMD measurements at the femoral neck and lumbar spine alone and in combination for fracture prediction. METHODS: We studied 19,071 individuals (68% women) from six prospective population-based cohorts in whom BMD was measured at both sites and fracture outcomes documented over 73,499 patient years. BMD values were converted to Z-scores, and the gradient of risk for any osteoporotic fracture and for hip fracture was examined by using a Poisson model in each cohort and each gender separately. Results of the different studies were merged using weighted beta-coefficients. RESULTS: The gradients of risk for osteoporotic fracture and for hip fracture were similar in men and women. In men and women combined, the risk of any osteoporotic fracture increased by 1.51 [95% confidence interval (CI)=1.42-1.61] per standard deviation (SD) decrease in femoral-neck BMD. For measurements made at the lumbar spine, the gradient of risk was 1.47 (95% CI=1.38-1.56). Where the minimum of the two values was used, the gradient of risk was similar (1.55; 95% CI=1.45-1.64). Higher gradients of risk were observed for hip fracture outcomes: with BMD at the femoral neck, the gradient of risk was 2.45 (95% CI=2.10-2.87), with lumbar BMD was 1.57 (95% CI=1.36-1.82), and with the minimum value of either femoral neck and lumbar spine was 2.11 (95% CI=1.81-2.45). Thus, selecting the lowest value for BMD at either the femoral neck or lumbar spine did not increase the predictive ability of BMD tests. By contrast, the sensitivity increased so that more individuals were identified but at the expense of specificity. Thus, the same effect could be achieved by using a less stringent T-score for the diagnosis of osteoporosis. CONCLUSIONS: Since taking the minimum value of the two measurements does not improve predictive ability, its clinical utility for the diagnosis of osteoporosis is low.
|
|
| 6. |
|
|
| 7. |
- Carville, S F, et al.
(författare)
-
EULAR evidence-based recommendations for the management of fibromyalgia syndrome
- 2008
-
Ingår i: Annals of the Rheumatic Diseases. - : BMJ. - 0003-4967 .- 1468-2060. ; 67:4, s. 536-541
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Objective: To develop evidence-based recommendations for the management of fibromyalgia syndrome. Methods: A multidisciplinary task force was formed representing 11 European countries. The design of the study, including search strategy, participants, interventions, outcome measures, data collection and analytical method, was defined at the outset. A systematic review was undertaken with the keywords "fibromyalgia", "treatment or management" and "trial". Studies were excluded if they did not utilise the American College of Rheumatology classification criteria, were not clinical trials, or included patients with chronic fatigue syndrome or myalgic encephalomyelitis. Primary outcome measures were change in pain assessed by visual analogue scale and fibromyalgia impact questionnaire. The quality of the studies was categorised based on randomisation, blinding and allocation concealment. Only the highest quality studies were used to base recommendations on. When there was insufficient evidence from the literature, a Delphi process was used to provide basis for recommendation. Results: 146 studies were eligible for the review. 39 pharmacological intervention studies and 59 non-pharmacological were included in the final recommendation summary tables once those of a lower quality or with insufficient data were separated. The categories of treatment identified were antidepressants, analgesics, and "other pharmacological" and exercise, cognitive behavioural therapy, education, dietary interventions and "other non-pharmacological". In many studies sample size was small and the quality of the study was insufficient for strong recommendations to be made. Conclusions: Nine recommendations for the management of fibromyalgia syndrome were developed using a systematic review and expert consensus.
|
|
| 8. |
- Johnell, Olof, et al.
(författare)
-
Predictive value of BMD for hip and other fractures.
- 2005
-
Ingår i: Journal of bone and mineral research. - 0884-0431 .- 1523-4681. ; 20:7, s. 1185-94
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The relationship between BMD and fracture risk was estimated in a meta-analysis of data from 12 cohort studies of approximately 39,000 men and women. Low hip BMD was an important predictor of fracture risk. The prediction of hip fracture with hip BMD also depended on age and z score. INTRODUCTION: The aim of this study was to quantify the relationship between BMD and fracture risk and examine the effect of age, sex, time since measurement, and initial BMD value. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We studied 9891 men and 29,082 women from 12 cohorts comprising EVOS/EPOS, EPIDOS, OFELY, CaMos, Rochester, Sheffield, Rotterdam, Kuopio, DOES, Hiroshima, and 2 cohorts from Gothenburg. Cohorts were followed for up to 16.3 years and a total of 168,366 person-years. The effect of BMD on fracture risk was examined using a Poisson model in each cohort and each sex separately. Results of the different studies were then merged using weighted coefficients. RESULTS: BMD measurement at the femoral neck with DXA was a strong predictor of hip fractures both in men and women with a similar predictive ability. At the age of 65 years, risk ratio increased by 2.94 (95% CI = 2.02-4.27) in men and by 2.88 (95% CI = 2.31-3.59) in women for each SD decrease in BMD. However, the effect was dependent on age, with a significantly higher gradient of risk at age 50 years than at age 80 years. Although the gradient of hip fracture risk decreased with age, the absolute risk still rose markedly with age. For any fracture and for any osteoporotic fracture, the gradient of risk was lower than for hip fractures. At the age of 65 years, the risk of osteoporotic fractures increased in men by 1.41 per SD decrease in BMD (95% CI = 1.33-1.51) and in women by 1.38 per SD (95% CI = 1.28-1.48). In contrast with hip fracture risk, the gradient of risk increased with age. For the prediction of any osteoporotic fracture (and any fracture), there was a higher gradient of risk the lower the BMD. At a z score of -4 SD, the risk gradient was 2.10 per SD (95% CI = 1.63-2.71) and at a z score of -1 SD, the risk was 1.73 per SD (95% CI = 1.59-1.89) in men and women combined. A similar but less pronounced and nonsignificant effect was observed for hip fractures. Data for ultrasound and peripheral measurements were available from three cohorts. The predictive ability of these devices was somewhat less than that of DXA measurements at the femoral neck by age, sex, and BMD value. CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that BMD is a risk factor for fracture of substantial importance and is similar in both sexes. Its validation on an international basis permits its use in case finding strategies. Its use should, however, take account of the variations in predictive value with age and BMD.
|
|
| 9. |
- Kanis, John A, et al.
(författare)
-
A meta-analysis of milk intake and fracture risk: low utility for case finding.
- 2005
-
Ingår i: Osteoporosis international. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0937-941X .- 1433-2965. ; 16:7, s. 799-804
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A low intake of calcium is widely considered to be a risk factor for future fracture. The aim of this study was to quantify this risk on an international basis and to explore the effect of age, gender and bone mineral density (BMD) on this risk. We studied 39,563 men and women (69% female) from six prospectively studied cohorts comprising EVOS/EPOS, CaMos, DOES, the Rotterdam study, the Sheffield study and a cohort from Gothenburg. Cohorts were followed for 152,000 person-years. The effect of calcium intake as judged by the intake of milk on the risk of any fracture, any osteoporotic fracture and hip fracture alone was examined using a Poisson model for each sex from each cohort. Covariates examined were age and BMD. The results of the different studies were merged by using the weighted beta-coefficients. A low intake of calcium (less than 1 glass of milk daily) was not associated with a significantly increased risk of any fracture, osteoporotic fracture or hip fracture. There was no difference in risk ratio between men and women. When both sexes were combined there was a small but non-significant increase in the risk of osteoporotic and of hip fracture. There was also a small increase in the risk of an osteoporotic fracture with age which was significant at the age of 80 years (RR = 1.15; 95% CI = 1.02-1.30) and above. The association was no longer significant after adjustment for BMD. No significant relationship was observed by age for low milk intake and hip fracture risk. We conclude that a self-reported low intake of milk is not associated with any marked increase in fracture risk and that the use of this risk indicator is of little or no value in case-finding strategies.
|
|
| 10. |
|
|
