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Träfflista för sökning "WFRF:(Stenseth Nils Chr.) srt2:(2006-2009)"

Sökning: WFRF:(Stenseth Nils Chr.) > (2006-2009)

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1.
  • Björklund, Mats, et al. (författare)
  • Quantitative Trait Evolution and Environmental Change
  • 2009
  • Ingår i: PloS one. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1932-6203. ; 4:2, s. e4521-
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background: Given the recent changes in climate, there is an urgent need to understand the evolutionary ability of populations to respond to these changes. Methodology/Principal Findings: We performed individual-based simulations with different shapes of the fitness curve, different heritabilities, different levels of density compensation, and different autocorrelation of environmental noise imposed on an environmental trend to study the ability of a population to adapt to changing conditions. The main finding is that when there is a positive autocorrelation of environmental noise, the outcome of the evolutionary process is much more unpredictable compared to when the noise has no autocorrelation. In addition, we found that strong selection resulted in a higher load, and more extinctions, and that this was most pronounced when heritability was low. The level of density-compensation was important in determining the variance in load when there was strong selection, and when genetic variance was lower when the level of density-compensation was low. Conclusions: The strong effect of the details of the environmental fluctuations makes predictions concerning the evolutionary future of populations very hard to make. In addition, to be able to make good predictions we need information on heritability, fitness functions and levels of density compensation. The results strongly suggest that patterns of environmental noise must be incorporated in future models of environmental change, such as global warming.
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2.
  • Jonzén, Niclas, et al. (författare)
  • Bird migration and climate - Introduction
  • 2007
  • Ingår i: Climate Research. - : Inter-Research Science Center. - 1616-1572 .- 0936-577X. ; 35:1-2, s. 1-3
  • Tidskriftsartikel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)
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4.
  • Jonzén, Niclas, et al. (författare)
  • Rapid advance of spring arrival dates in long-distance migratory birds
  • 2006
  • Ingår i: Science. - : American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). - 1095-9203 .- 0036-8075. ; 312:5782, s. 1959-1961
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Several bird species have advanced the timing of their spring migration in response to recent climate change. European short-distance migrants, wintering in temperate areas, have been assumed to be more affected by change in the European climate than long-distance migrants wintering in the tropics. However, we show that tong-distance migrants have advanced their spring arrival in Scandinavia more than short-distance migrants. By analyzing a long-term data set from southern Italy, we show that long-distance migrants also pass through the Mediterranean region earlier. We argue that this may reflect a climate-driven evolutionary change in the timing of spring migration.
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5.
  • Jonzén, Niclas, et al. (författare)
  • Response to comment on "Rapid advance of spring arrival dates in long-distance migratory birds"
  • 2007
  • Ingår i: Science. - : American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). - 1095-9203 .- 0036-8075. ; 315:5812, s. 598-598
  • Tidskriftsartikel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
    • Both's comment questions our suggestion that the advanced spring arrival time of long-distance migratory birds in Scandinavia and the Mediterranean may reflect a climate-driven evolutionary change. We present additional arguments to support our hypothesis but underscore the importance of additional studies involving direct tests of evolutionary change.
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6.
  • Knudsen, Endre, et al. (författare)
  • Characterizing bird migration phenology using data from standardized monitoring at bird observatories
  • 2007
  • Ingår i: Climate Research. - : Inter-Research Science Center. - 1616-1572 .- 0936-577X. ; 35:1-2, s. 59-77
  • Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Long-term data from standardized monitoring programmes at bird observatories are becoming increasingly available. These data are frequently used for detecting changes in the timing of bird migration that may relate to recent climate change. We present an overview of problematic issues in the analysis of these data, and review approaches to and methods for characterizing bird migration phenology and its change over time. Methods are illustrated and briefly compared using autumn data on garden warbler Sylvia borin from a standardized mist-netting programme at Lista bird observatory, southern Norway. Bird migration phenology is usually characterized rather coarsely using a small number of sample statistics such as mean, median and selected quantiles. We present 2 alternative approaches. Smoothing methods describe the within-season pattern in the data at an arbitrary level of detail, while fitting a parametric seasonal distribution curve offers a coarse description of migration phenology relatively robust to sampling effects. Various methods for analyzing linear trends in the timing of bird migration are reviewed and discussed. Exploratory studies using long-term data gathered at bird observatories can yield more detailed insight into the phenomenon of bird migration and how phenologies relate to climate. Methodological advances are needed, particularly in order to better characterize the shape of phenological distributions and separate between sampling effects and 'true' phenology.
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7.
  • Ranta, Esa, et al. (författare)
  • Environmental forcing and genetic differentiation in subdivided populations
  • 2008
  • Ingår i: Evolutionary Ecology Research. - 1522-0613 .- 1937-3791. ; 10:1, s. 1-9
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Questions: How will genetic differentiation and genetic drift in spatially structured populations be affected by different classes of autocorrelated environmental noise? How does dispersal interact with fluctuations generated from the demographic and environmental forcing in shaping the neutral genetic patterns? Model and key assumptions: Populations are regulated locally by density-dependent feedback including demographic stochasticity but they are also here forced by environmental noise (white, red, and blue noise corresponding to random, positive, and negative autocorrelation respectively). Spatial structure consists of a looped string of populations connected by dispersal and each with a predefined carrying capacity (one-dimensional stepping stone structure). Method: Simulations initialized by randomly distributing individuals, and thus genotypes, in space (no fitness differences, no mutation, no recombination, no selection). Conclusions: In an unpredictable way, red noise reinforces the genetic differentiation among populations more than white or blue noise. Dispersal appears unable to dilute the differentiation effect of positively autocorrelated forcing. In modelling the effect of environmental stochasticity, details about the type of environmental noise are of paramount importance for the results and their biological and management implications.
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8.
  • Saino, Nicola, et al. (författare)
  • Temperature and rainfall anomalies in Africa predict timing of spring migration in trans-Saharan migratory birds
  • 2007
  • Ingår i: Climate Research. - : Inter-Research Science Center. - 1616-1572 .- 0936-577X. ; 35:1-2, s. 123-134
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The long-term advance in the timing of bird spring migration in the Northern Hemisphere is associated with global climate change. The extent to which changes in bird phenology reflect responses to weather conditions in the wintering or breeding areas, or during migration, however, remains to be elucidated. We analyse the relationships between the timing of spring migration of 9 species of trans-Saharan migratory birds across the, Mediterranean, and thermal and precipitation anomalies in the main wintering areas south of the Sahara Desert and in North African stopover areas. Median migration dates were collected on the island of Capri (southern Italy) by standardized mist-netting during 1981 to 2004. High temperatures in sub-Saharan Africa (Sahel and Gulf of Guinea) prior to northward migration (February and March) were associated with advanced migration. Moreover, birds migrated earlier when winter rainfall in North Africa was more abundant. The relationships between relevant meteorological variables and timing of migration were remarkably consistent among species, suggesting a coherent response to the same extrinsic stimuli. All these results were obtained while statistically controlling for the long-term trend towards the earlier timing of spring migration across the Mediterranean that has been documented in previous analyses of the same dataset, a trend that was confirmed by the present analyses. In conclusion, our results suggest that thermal conditions in the wintering quarters, as well as rainfall in North African stopover areas, can influence interannual variation in migration phenology of trans-Saharan migratory birds, although the ecological mechanisms that causally link meteorological conditions to the timing of migration remain a matter of speculation.
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