| 1. |
- Folland, Chris K., et al.
(författare)
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Multi-annual droughts in the English Lowlands: a review of their characteristics and climate drivers in the winter half-year
- 2015
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Ingår i: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1027-5606 .- 1607-7938. ; 19:5, s. 2353-2375
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The English Lowlands is a relatively dry, densely populated region in the south-east of the UK in which water is used intensively. Consequently, parts of the region are water-stressed and face growing water resource pressures. The region is heavily dependent on groundwater and particularly vulnerable to long, multi-annual droughts primarily associated with dry winters. Despite this vulnerability, the atmospheric drivers of multi-annual droughts in the region are poorly understood, an obstacle to developing appropriate drought management strategies, including monitoring and early warning systems. To advance our understanding, we assess known key climate drivers in the winter half-year (October-March) and their likely relationships with multi-annual droughts in the region. We characterise historic multi-annual drought episodes back to 1910 for the English Lowlands using various meteorological and hydrological data sets. Multi-annual droughts are identified using a gridded precipitation series for the entire region, and refined using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Streamflow Index (SSI) and Standardized Groundwater level Index (SGI) applied to regional-scale river flow and groundwater time series. We explore linkages between a range of potential climatic driving factors and precipitation, river flow and groundwater level indicators in the English Lowlands for the winter half-year. The drivers or forcings include El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the North Atlantic tripole sea surface temperature (SST) pattern, the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), solar and volcanic forcing and the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO). As expected, no single driver convincingly explains the occurrence of any multi-annual drought in the historical record. However, we demonstrate, for the first time, an association between La Nina episodes and winter rainfall deficits in some major multi-annual drought episodes in the English Lowlands. We also show significant (albeit relatively weak) links between ENSO and drought indicators applied to river flow and groundwater levels. We also show that some of the other drivers listed above are likely to influence English Lowlands rainfall. We conclude by signposting a direction for this future research effort.
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| 2. |
- Hanly, John G., et al.
(författare)
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A Longitudinal Analysis of Outcomes of Lupus Nephritis in an International Inception Cohort Using a Multistate Model Approach
- 2016
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Ingår i: Arthritis & Rheumatology. - : Wiley. - 2326-5191 .- 2326-5205. ; 68:8, s. 1932-1944
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Objective: To study bidirectional change and predictors of change in estimated glomerular filtration rate (GFR) and proteinuria in lupus nephritis (LN) using a multistate modeling approach. Methods: Patients in the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics inception cohort were classified annually into estimated GFR state 1 (>60 ml/minute), state 2 (30–60 ml/minute), or state 3 (3.0 gm/day), or end-stage renal disease (ESRD) or death. Using multistate modeling, relative transition rates between states indicated improvement and deterioration. Results: Of 1,826 lupus patients, 700 (38.3%) developed LN. During a mean ± SD follow-up of 5.2 ± 3.5 years, the likelihood of improvement in estimated GFR and estimated proteinuria was greater than the likelihood of deterioration. After 5 years, 62% of patients initially in estimated GFR state 3 and 11% of patients initially in estimated proteinuria state 3 transitioned to ESRD. The probability of remaining in the initial states 1, 2, and 3 was 85%, 11%, and 3%, respectively, for estimated GFR and 62%, 29%, and 4%, respectively, for estimated proteinuria. Male sex predicted improvement in estimated GFR states; older age, race/ethnicity, higher estimated proteinuria state, and higher renal biopsy chronicity scores predicted deterioration. For estimated proteinuria, race/ethnicity, earlier calendar years, damage scores without renal variables, and higher renal biopsy chronicity scores predicted deterioration; male sex, presence of lupus anticoagulant, class V nephritis, and mycophenolic acid use predicted less improvement. Conclusion: In LN, the expected improvement or deterioration in renal outcomes can be estimated by multistate modeling and is preceded by identifiable risk factors. New therapeutic interventions for LN should meet or exceed these expectations.
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| 3. |
- Hanly, John G., et al.
(författare)
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Cerebrovascular Events in Systemic Lupus Erythematosus : Results From an International Inception Cohort Study
- 2018
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Ingår i: Arthritis Care and Research. - : Wiley. - 2151-464X .- 2151-4658. ; 70:10, s. 1478-1487
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Objective: To determine the frequency, characteristics, and outcomes of cerebrovascular events (CerVEs), as well as clinical and autoantibody associations in a multiethnic/racial inception cohort of patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). Methods: A total of 1,826 patients were assessed annually for 19 neuropsychiatric (NP) events, including 5 types of CerVEs: 1) stroke, 2) transient ischemia, 3) chronic multifocal ischemia, 4) subarachnoid/intracranial hemorrhage, and 5) sinus thrombosis. Global disease activity (Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Disease [SLE] Activity Index 2000), damage scores (SLE International Collaborating Clinics/American College of Rheumatology Damage Index), and Short Form 36 (SF-36) scores were collected. Time to event, linear and logistic regressions, and multistate models were used as appropriate. Results: CerVEs were the fourth most frequent NP event: 82 of 1,826 patients had 109 events; of these events, 103 were attributed to SLE, and 44 were identified at the time of enrollment. The predominant events were stroke (60 of 109 patients) and transient ischemia (28 of 109 patients). CerVEs were associated with other NP events attributed to SLE, non–SLE-attributed NP events, African ancestry (at US SLICC sites), and increased organ damage scores. Lupus anticoagulant increased the risk of first stroke and sinus thrombosis and transient ischemic attack. Physician assessment indicated resolution or improvement in the majority of patients, but patients reported sustained reduction in SF-36 summary and subscale scores following a CerVE. Conclusion: CerVEs, the fourth most frequent NP event in SLE, are usually attributable to lupus. In contrast to good physician-reported outcomes, patients reported a sustained reduction in health-related quality of life following a CerVE.
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| 4. |
- Hanly, John G., et al.
(författare)
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Mood Disorders in Systemic Lupus Erythematosus: Results From an International Inception Cohort Study
- 2015
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Ingår i: Arthritis & Rheumatology. - : Wiley. - 2326-5191 .- 2326-5205. ; 67:7, s. 1837-1847
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- ObjectiveTo examine the frequency, characteristics, and outcome of mood disorders, as well as clinical and autoantibody associations, in a multiethnic/racial, prospective inception cohort of patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). MethodsPatients were assessed annually for mood disorders (4 types, according to the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition) and 18 other neuropsychiatric events. Global disease activity scores (SLE Disease Activity Index 2000 [SLEDAI-2K]), damage scores (Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics/American College of Rheumatology Damage Index [SDI]), and Short Form 36 subscales, mental and physical component summary scores were collected. Time to event, linear and ordinal regressions, and multi-state models were used as appropriate. ResultsAmong the 1,827 patients with SLE, 88.9% were female, and 48.9% were Caucasian. The mean SD age of the patients was 35.1 +/- 13.3 years, disease duration was 5.6 +/- 4.8 months, and the length of followup was 4.7 +/- 3.5 years. During the course of the study, 863 (47.2%) of the 1,827 patients had 1,627 neuropsychiatric events. Mood disorders occurred in 232 (12.7%) of 1,827 patients, and 98 (38.3%) of 256 mood disorder events were attributed to SLE. The estimated cumulative incidence of any mood disorder after 10 years was 17.7% (95% confidence interval 15.1, 20.2%). A greater risk of mood disorder was associated with concurrent neuropsychiatric events (P0.01), and a lower risk was associated with Asian race/ethnicity (P=0.01) and treatment with immunosuppressive drugs (P=0.003). Mood disorders were associated with lower mental health and mental component summary scores but not with the SLEDAI-2K, SDI, or lupus autoantibodies. Among the 232 patients with depression, 168 (72.4%) were treated with antidepressants. One hundred twenty-six (49.2%) of 256 mood disorders resolved in 117 (50.4%) of 232 patients. ConclusionMood disorders, the second most frequent neuropsychiatric event in patients with SLE, have a negative impact on health-related quality of life and improve over time. The lack of association with global SLE disease activity, cumulative organ damage, and lupus autoantibodies emphasizes the multifactorial etiology of mood disorders and a role for non-lupus-specific therapies.
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| 5. |
- Hanly, John G., et al.
(författare)
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Psychosis in Systemic Lupus Erythematosus : Results From an International Inception Cohort Study
- 2019
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Ingår i: Arthritis and Rheumatology. - : Wiley. - 2326-5191 .- 2326-5205. ; 71:2, s. 281-289
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Objective: To determine, in a large, multiethnic/multiracial, prospective inception cohort of patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE), the frequency, attribution, clinical, and autoantibody associations with lupus psychosis and the short- and long-term outcomes as assessed by physicians and patients. Methods: Patients were evaluated annually for 19 neuropsychiatric (NP) events including psychosis. Scores on the Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Disease Activity Index 2000, the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics/American College of Rheumatology Damage Index, and the Short Form 36 (SF-36) were recorded. Time to event and linear regressions were used as appropriate. Results: Of 1,826 SLE patients, 88.8% were female and 48.8% were Caucasian. The mean ± SD age was 35.1 ± 13.3 years, the mean ± SD disease duration was 5.6 ± 4.2 months, and the mean ± SD follow-up period was 7.4 ± 4.5 years. There were 31 psychotic events in 28 of 1,826 patients (1.53%), and most patients had a single event (26 of 28 [93%]). In the majority of patients (20 of 25 [80%]) and events (28 of 31 [90%]), psychosis was attributed to SLE, usually either in the year prior to or within 3 years of SLE diagnosis. Positive associations (hazard ratios [HRs] and 95% confidence intervals [95% CIs]) with lupus psychosis were previous SLE NP events (HR 3.59 [95% CI 1.16–11.14]), male sex (HR 3.0 [95% CI 1.20–7.50]), younger age at SLE diagnosis (per 10 years) (HR 1.45 [95% CI 1.01–2.07]), and African ancestry (HR 4.59 [95% CI 1.79–11.76]). By physician assessment, most psychotic events resolved by the second annual visit following onset, in parallel with an improvement in patient-reported SF-36 summary and subscale scores. Conclusion: Psychosis is an infrequent manifestation of NPSLE. Generally, it occurs early after SLE onset and has a significant negative impact on health status. As determined by patient and physician report, the short- and long-term outlooks are good for most patients, although careful follow-up is required.
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| 6. |
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| 7. |
- Onengut-Gumuscu, Suna, et al.
(författare)
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Fine mapping of type 1 diabetes susceptibility loci and evidence for colocalization of causal variants with lymphoid gene enhancers.
- 2015
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Ingår i: Nature Genetics. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1061-4036 .- 1546-1718. ; 47:4, s. 381-386
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Genetic studies of type 1 diabetes (T1D) have identified 50 susceptibility regions, finding major pathways contributing to risk, with some loci shared across immune disorders. To make genetic comparisons across autoimmune disorders as informative as possible, a dense genotyping array, the Immunochip, was developed, from which we identified four new T1D-associated regions (P < 5 × 10(-8)). A comparative analysis with 15 immune diseases showed that T1D is more similar genetically to other autoantibody-positive diseases, significantly most similar to juvenile idiopathic arthritis and significantly least similar to ulcerative colitis, and provided support for three additional new T1D risk loci. Using a Bayesian approach, we defined credible sets for the T1D-associated SNPs. The associated SNPs localized to enhancer sequences active in thymus, T and B cells, and CD34(+) stem cells. Enhancer-promoter interactions can now be analyzed in these cell types to identify which particular genes and regulatory sequences are causal.
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