| 1. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 2. |
- Sampson, Joshua N., et al.
(författare)
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Analysis of Heritability and Shared Heritability Based on Genome-Wide Association Studies for 13 Cancer Types
- 2015
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Ingår i: Journal of the National Cancer Institute. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0027-8874 .- 1460-2105. ; 107:12
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Studies of related individuals have consistently demonstrated notable familial aggregation of cancer. We aim to estimate the heritability and genetic correlation attributable to the additive effects of common single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) for cancer at 13 anatomical sites. Methods: Between 2007 and 2014, the US National Cancer Institute has generated data from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) for 49 492 cancer case patients and 34 131 control patients. We apply novel mixed model methodology (GCTA) to this GWAS data to estimate the heritability of individual cancers, as well as the proportion of heritability attributable to cigarette smoking in smoking-related cancers, and the genetic correlation between pairs of cancers. Results: GWAS heritability was statistically significant at nearly all sites, with the estimates of array-based heritability, h(l)(2), on the liability threshold (LT) scale ranging from 0.05 to 0.38. Estimating the combined heritability of multiple smoking characteristics, we calculate that at least 24% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 14% to 37%) and 7% (95% CI = 4% to 11%) of the heritability for lung and bladder cancer, respectively, can be attributed to genetic determinants of smoking. Most pairs of cancers studied did not show evidence of strong genetic correlation. We found only four pairs of cancers with marginally statistically significant correlations, specifically kidney and testes (rho = 0.73, SE = 0.28), diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) and pediatric osteosarcoma (rho = 0.53, SE = 0.21), DLBCL and chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) (rho = 0.51, SE = 0.18), and bladder and lung (rho = 0.35, SE = 0.14). Correlation analysis also indicates that the genetic architecture of lung cancer differs between a smoking population of European ancestry and a nonsmoking Asian population, allowing for the possibility that the genetic etiology for the same disease can vary by population and environmental exposures. Conclusion: Our results provide important insights into the genetic architecture of cancers and suggest new avenues for investigation.
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| 3. |
- Griswold, Max G., et al.
(författare)
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Alcohol use and burden for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2016 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 392:10152, s. 1015-1035
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for death and disability, but its overall association with health remains complex given the possible protective effects of moderate alcohol consumption on some conditions. With our comprehensive approach to health accounting within the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016, we generated improved estimates of alcohol use and alcohol-attributable deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 195 locations from 1990 to 2016, for both sexes and for 5-year age groups between the ages of 15 years and 95 years and older.Methods: Using 694 data sources of individual and population-level alcohol consumption, along with 592 prospective and retrospective studies on the risk of alcohol use, we produced estimates of the prevalence of current drinking, abstention, the distribution of alcohol consumption among current drinkers in standard drinks daily (defined as 10 g of pure ethyl alcohol), and alcohol-attributable deaths and DALYs. We made several methodological improvements compared with previous estimates: first, we adjusted alcohol sales estimates to take into account tourist and unrecorded consumption; second, we did a new meta-analysis of relative risks for 23 health outcomes associated with alcohol use; and third, we developed a new method to quantify the level of alcohol consumption that minimises the overall risk to individual health.Findings: Globally, alcohol use was the seventh leading risk factor for both deaths and DALYs in 2016, accounting for 2.2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1.5-3.0) of age-standardised female deaths and 6.8% (5.8-8.0) of age-standardised male deaths. Among the population aged 15-49 years, alcohol use was the leading risk factor globally in 2016, with 3.8% (95% UI 3.2-4-3) of female deaths and 12.2% (10.8-13-6) of male deaths attributable to alcohol use. For the population aged 15-49 years, female attributable DALYs were 2.3% (95% UI 2.0-2.6) and male attributable DALYs were 8.9% (7.8-9.9). The three leading causes of attributable deaths in this age group were tuberculosis (1.4% [95% UI 1. 0-1. 7] of total deaths), road injuries (1.2% [0.7-1.9]), and self-harm (1.1% [0.6-1.5]). For populations aged 50 years and older, cancers accounted for a large proportion of total alcohol-attributable deaths in 2016, constituting 27.1% (95% UI 21.2-33.3) of total alcohol-attributable female deaths and 18.9% (15.3-22.6) of male deaths. The level of alcohol consumption that minimised harm across health outcomes was zero (95% UI 0.0-0.8) standard drinks per week.Interpretation: Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for global disease burden and causes substantial health loss. We found that the risk of all-cause mortality, and of cancers specifically, rises with increasing levels of consumption, and the level of consumption that minimises health loss is zero. These results suggest that alcohol control policies might need to be revised worldwide, refocusing on efforts to lower overall population-level consumption.
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| 4. |
- Murray, Christopher J. L., et al.
(författare)
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Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1995-2051
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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| 5. |
- Shi, Wenming, et al.
(författare)
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Urinary phthalate metabolites in relation to childhood asthmatic and allergic symptoms in Shanghai
- 2018
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Ingår i: Environment International. - : PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD. - 0160-4120 .- 1873-6750. ; 121, s. 276-286
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Few studies can be found on phthalate exposure in relation to childhood asthma and allergic symptoms from Mainland China, where a persistent increase in prevalence of childhood asthma and allergic disease has been observed. Objectives: This study aimed to assess the exposure levels to phthalates and its relationship with asthmatic and allergic symptoms among children in Shanghai, which has the highest prevalence of childhood asthma in Mainland China. Methods: A follow-up study (2013-2014) of 434 children aged 5-10 years was conducted, based on the China, Children, Homes, Health (CCHH) study (2011-2012) in Shanghai, China. Information on asthmatic and allergic symptoms (wheeze, rhinitis, and eczema) were collected using validated questionnaires. Ten phthalate metabolites in morning urine samples were analyzed by high-performance liquid chromatography with triple quadrupole tandem mass spectrometry (HPLC-MS/MS). Multivariable logistic regression was used to estimate the associations between symptoms and urinary phthalate metabolites controlling for demographics, family history of allergic diseases and other covariates. Results: Nine out of 10 phthalate metabolites were detected in all subjects (average detection rate of 93.2%). By multivariable logistic regression analyses, the 4th quartile of Mono-n-butyl phthalate (MnBP) (reference: 1st quartile) had adjusted prevalence odds ratios (aPORs) and 95% confidence intervals (95%CIs) of 2.27(1.06-4.88), 2.14(1.02-4.46) and 2.98(1.19-7.50) for wheeze, rhinitis and eczema, respectively, while those of Mono-isobutyl phthalate (MiBP) were 2.23(1.08-4.62) and 2.96(1.02-8.60) for rhinitis and eczema, respectively. The highest quartile of mono-2-ethyl-5-hydroxyhexyl phthalate(MEHHP) and mono 2 ethyl 5 ox ohexyl phthalate(MEOHP) had aPORs and 95%CIs of 3.10(1.10-8.74) and 2.63(1.02-6.80) for eczema, respectively. By summing up the 4 low molecular weight metabolites (Sigma 4LMWP) and all 9 metabolites (Sigma(9)Total), the highest quartiles of Sigma 4LMWP and Sigma(9)Total were significantly associated with all symptoms. In most of the above associations, a significantly increasing trend from the 1st to the 4th quartile was observed. Subjects with 2 or 3 concomitant symptoms (reference: no symptoms) had significant positive associations with a higher level (the 4th quartile) of phthalate metabolites. Conclusions: Low MW metabolites such as MnBP and MiBP, high MW DEHP and the total amount of phthalate metabolites might have adverse health effects on asthma and allergic symptoms in Chinese children.
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| 6. |
- Yang, Xiaoliu, et al.
(författare)
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Institutional Arrangement for Integrated River Basin Management
- 2016
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Bok (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- This study concerns the management functions, institutional and legal frameworks to foster IRBM in the Yangtze River Basin. It is implemented as part of the EU China River Basin Management Programme funded by the EU.The overall objective of the study is to contribute to an enabling framework of policies, legislation and institutions that will promote IRBM in China and assist the government to harmonise social and economic development and water and environmental protection within the Yangtze River Basin. Specifically, the study will provide the CWRC with a better basis for informed decisions on adjustment of its organization, responsibilities and management functions to be incorporated in the Yangtze River Master Plan. Based on stakeholder mapping an assessment has been made to characterise the present situation of water resources management in China and provide direction for future changes. The assessment found that 1) China has established a legal framework supporting water management in a river basin context, 2) plans embodying IRBM are drafted at national, river basin and provincial levels, and 3) the existing funding of water management is dominated by government investment. A diagnosis and evaluation of the management functions of the CWRC is presented with focus on gaps and overlaps providing recommendations for a more effective governance structure in accordance with internationally accepted principles that have emerged during the past 10 years. The diagnosis is based on key informant interviews and questionnaires and indicated that 1) Chinese legislation enables decentralized river basin management, 2) river basin, regional and provincial management functions are not clearly defined, 3) some management functions of the CWRC are difficult to implement due to discrepancies between authority and responsibilities 4) there are no efficient consultation and coordination mechanisms among stakeholders within the river basin, 5) the implementation of IRBM lacks support of provincial and local authorities, and 6) the CWRC sees stakeholder participation as the key to better river basin governance. Water management in the Yangtze River Basin has been analysed with the Rhine River, Danube River, France and the European Union as reference. The comparisons indicate that 1) legislation or formal agreements between different administrative units, nations or provinces, are required for efficient cooperation, 2) an inter-provincial river basin organization is an ideal platform to promote IRBM and resolve conflicts between nations or provinces within a river basin, 3) political governance and technical support should be separated, 4) stakeholder participation is imperative for efficient IRBM, and 5) pollution of the Yangtze River is at risk of increasing while the Rhine River and to some extent the Danube River have passed a turning point (top of Kuznet’s curve), where pollution is effectively managed and declining.Strategically institutional arrangements for IRBM will be conditional on central government initiative. At the national level four initiatives are proposed as umbrella for basin level action, 1) a national water framework plan to be inspired by the EU Water Framework Directive (WFD), 2) an assessment of basin institutional arrangements inspired by the Rhine and Danube rivers, 3) an assessment of provincial institutions inspired by France and 4) an assessment of legal efficiency taking the EU WFD as benchmark.In close consultation with the CWRC an action plan to foster IRBM in the Yangtze River Basin has been formulated in terms of legislation, institutions, capacity building, financing, information disclosure and stakeholder participation.The principal recommendations of the study are:1) Water Law to be amended or supplemented with legislation, which clearly defines the division of responsibilities between the national, river basin and provincial level authorities.2) A National Water Resource Commission to be established to strengthen cross-sectorial coordination and cooperation and mitigate the current fragmentation of responsibilities, especially the overlapping responsibilities of the Ministry of Water Resources (MWR) and Ministry of Environmental Protection (MEP) in water pollution management and of the Ministry of Water Resources and Ministry of Land and Resources in groundwater management.3) Reform of the CWRC may take one of three basic models: Unified management as branch of central government, essentially the current structure; Coordinated management governed by stakeholders, including central government; Autonomous enterprise authorised by central government.4) Institutions and responsibilities for water resources management and water service delivery to be separated and clearly defined.5) River basin commissions to be assigned responsibility for coordination of water resources management at basin scale and provinces for implementation in accordance with overall management objectives.6) River basin commissions to be responsible for operation of multipurpose infrastructure and bulk water supply.7) Provinces and municipalities to be the responsible for management and delivery of water supply and sanitation services in both rural and urban areas.8) Cost recovery for water resources management, bulk water supply, water supply and sanitation services to be scaled up and serve as water demand management tool as well as a significant source of funding for infrastructure development.9) National Water Resources Council to be set up at national level to supervise and regulate water resources management and services delivery by benchmarking of river basin commissions, provincial administrations and water utility companies using clear and well defined performance indicators.
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| 7. |
- Zhao, Juan, et al.
(författare)
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A cross-sectional study on upright heart rate and BP changing characteristics: basic data for establishing diagnosis of postural orthostatic tachycardia syndrome and orthostatic hypertension
- 2015
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Ingår i: BMJ Open. - : BMJ Publishing Group: Open Access / BMJ Journals. - 2044-6055. ; 5:6
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Objective: We aimed to determine upright heart rate and blood pressure (BP) changes to suggest diagnostic criteria for postural orthostatic tachycardia syndrome (POTS) and orthostatic hypertension (OHT) in Chinese children. Methods: In this cross-sectional study, 1449 children and adolescents aged 6-18 years were randomly recruited from two cities in China, Kaifeng in Henan province and Anguo in Hebei province. They were divided into two groups: 844 children aged 6-12 years (group I) and 605 adolescents aged 13-18 years (group II). Heart rate and BP were recorded during an active standing test. Results: 95th percentile (P-95) of delta heart rate from supine to upright was 38 bpm, with a maximum upright heart rate of 130 and 124 bpm in group I and group II, respectively. P-95 of delta systolic blood pressure (SBP) increase was 18 mm Hg and P-95 of upright SBP was 132 mm Hg in group I and 138 mm Hg in group II. P-95 of delta diastolic blood pressure (DBP) increase was 24 mm Hg in group I and 21 mm Hg in group II, and P-95 of upright DBP was 89 mm Hg in group I and 91 mm Hg in group II. Conclusions: POTS is suggested when delta heart rate is greater than= 38 bpm (for easy memory, greater than= 40 bpm) from supine to upright, or maximum heart rate greater than= 130 bpm (children aged 6-12 years) and greater than= 125 bpm (adolescents aged 13-18 years), associated with orthostatic symptoms. OHT is suggested when delta SBP (increase) is greater than= 20 mm Hg, and/or delta DBP (increase) greater than= 25 mm Hg (in children aged 6-12 years) or greater than= 20 mm Hg (in adolescents aged 13-18 years) from supine to upright; or upright BP greater than= 130/90 mm Hg (in children aged 6-12 years) or greater than= 140/90 mm Hg (in adolescents aged 13-18 years).
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