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- Pennells, Lisa, et al.
(författare)
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Equalization of four cardiovascular risk algorithms after systematic recalibration : individual-participant meta-analysis of 86 prospective studies
- 2019
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Ingår i: European Heart Journal. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0195-668X .- 1522-9645. ; 40:7, s. 621-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Aims: There is debate about the optimum algorithm for cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk estimation. We conducted head-to-head comparisons of four algorithms recommended by primary prevention guidelines, before and after ‘recalibration’, a method that adapts risk algorithms to take account of differences in the risk characteristics of the populations being studied.Methods and results: Using individual-participant data on 360 737 participants without CVD at baseline in 86 prospective studies from 22 countries, we compared the Framingham risk score (FRS), Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE), pooled cohort equations (PCE), and Reynolds risk score (RRS). We calculated measures of risk discrimination and calibration, and modelled clinical implications of initiating statin therapy in people judged to be at ‘high’ 10 year CVD risk. Original risk algorithms were recalibrated using the risk factor profile and CVD incidence of target populations. The four algorithms had similar risk discrimination. Before recalibration, FRS, SCORE, and PCE over-predicted CVD risk on average by 10%, 52%, and 41%, respectively, whereas RRS under-predicted by 10%. Original versions of algorithms classified 29–39% of individuals aged ≥40 years as high risk. By contrast, recalibration reduced this proportion to 22–24% for every algorithm. We estimated that to prevent one CVD event, it would be necessary to initiate statin therapy in 44–51 such individuals using original algorithms, in contrast to 37–39 individuals with recalibrated algorithms.Conclusion: Before recalibration, the clinical performance of four widely used CVD risk algorithms varied substantially. By contrast, simple recalibration nearly equalized their performance and improved modelled targeting of preventive action to clinical need.
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| 2. |
- Merino, Jordi, et al.
(författare)
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Genome-wide meta-analysis of macronutrient intake of 91,114 European ancestry participants from the cohorts for heart and aging research in genomic epidemiology consortium
- 2019
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Ingår i: Molecular Psychiatry. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1359-4184 .- 1476-5578. ; 24:12, s. 1920-1932
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Macronutrient intake, the proportion of calories consumed from carbohydrate, fat, and protein, is an important risk factor for metabolic diseases with significant familial aggregation. Previous studies have identified two genetic loci for macronutrient intake, but incomplete coverage of genetic variation and modest sample sizes have hindered the discovery of additional loci. Here, we expanded the genetic landscape of macronutrient intake, identifying 12 suggestively significant loci (P < 1 × 10−6) associated with intake of any macronutrient in 91,114 European ancestry participants. Four loci replicated and reached genome-wide significance in a combined meta-analysis including 123,659 European descent participants, unraveling two novel loci; a common variant in RARB locus for carbohydrate intake and a rare variant in DRAM1 locus for protein intake, and corroborating earlier FGF21 and FTO findings. In additional analysis of 144,770 participants from the UK Biobank, all identified associations from the two-stage analysis were confirmed except for DRAM1. Identified loci might have implications in brain and adipose tissue biology and have clinical impact in obesity-related phenotypes. Our findings provide new insight into biological functions related to macronutrient intake.
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| 3. |
- Waelbroeck, Claire, et al.
(författare)
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Consistently dated Atlantic sediment cores over the last 40 thousand years
- 2019
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Ingår i: Scientific Data. - : NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP. - 2052-4463. ; 6
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Rapid changes in ocean circulation and climate have been observed in marine-sediment and ice cores over the last glacial period and deglaciation, highlighting the non-linear character of the climate system and underlining the possibility of rapid climate shifts in response to anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing. To date, these rapid changes in climate and ocean circulation are still not fully explained. One obstacle hindering progress in our understanding of the interactions between past ocean circulation and climate changes is the difficulty of accurately dating marine cores. Here, we present a set of 92 marine sediment cores from the Atlantic Ocean for which we have established age-depth models that are consistent with the Greenland GICC05 ice core chronology, and computed the associated dating uncertainties, using a new deposition modeling technique. This is the first set of consistently dated marine sediment cores enabling paleoclimate scientists to evaluate leads/lags between circulation and climate changes over vast regions of the Atlantic Ocean. Moreover, this data set is of direct use in paleoclimate modeling studies.
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