| 1. |
- Hamilton, Douglas S., et al.
(författare)
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Impact of Changes to the Atmospheric Soluble Iron Deposition Flux on Ocean Biogeochemical Cycles in the Anthropocene
- 2020
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Ingår i: Global Biogeochemical Cycles. - 0886-6236. ; 34:3
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Iron can be a growth‐limiting nutrient for phytoplankton, modifying rates of net primary production, nitrogen fixation, and carbon export ‐ highlighting the importance of new iron inputs from the atmosphere. The bioavailable iron fraction depends on the emission source and the dissolution during transport. The impacts of anthropogenic combustion and land use change on emissions from industrial, domestic, shipping, desert, and wildfire sources suggest that Northern Hemisphere soluble iron deposition has likely been enhanced between 2% and 68% over the Industrial Era. If policy and climate follow the intermediate Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 trajectory, then results suggest that Southern Ocean (>30°S) soluble iron deposition would be enhanced between 63% and 95% by 2100. Marine net primary productivity and carbon export within the open ocean are most sensitive to changes in soluble iron deposition in the Southern Hemisphere; this is predominantly driven by fire rather than dust iron sources. Changes in iron deposition cause large perturbations to the marine nitrogen cycle, up to 70% increase in denitrification and 15% increase in nitrogen fixation, but only modestly impacts the carbon cycle and atmospheric CO2 concentrations (1–3 ppm). Regionally, primary productivity increases due to increased iron deposition are often compensated by offsetting decreases downstream corresponding to equivalent changes in the rate of phytoplankton macronutrient uptake, particularly in the equatorial Pacific. These effects are weaker in the Southern Ocean, suggesting that changes in iron deposition in this region dominates the global carbon cycle and climate response.
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| 2. |
- Kulmala, Markku, et al.
(författare)
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CO2-induced terrestrial climate feedback mechanism : From carbon sink to aerosol source and back
- 2014
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Ingår i: Boreal environment research. - 1239-6095 .- 1797-2469. ; 19, s. 122-131
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Feedbacks mechanisms are essential components of our climate system, as they either increase or decrease changes in climate-related quantities in the presence of external forcings. In this work, we provide the first quantitative estimate regarding the terrestrial climate feedback loop connecting the increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, changes in gross primary production (GPP) associated with the carbon uptake, organic aerosol formation in the atmosphere, and transfer of both diffuse and global radiation. Our approach was to combine process-level understanding with comprehensive, long-term field measurement data set collected from a boreal forest site in southern Finland. Our best estimate of the gain in GPP resulting from the feedback is 1.3 (range 1.02-1.5), which is larger than the gains of the few atmospheric chemistry-climate feedbacks estimated using large-scale models. Our analysis demonstrates the power of using comprehensive field measurements in investigating the complicated couplings between the biosphere and atmosphere on one hand, and the need for complementary approaches relying on the combination of field data, satellite observations model simulations on the other hand.
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| 3. |
- Hantson, Stijn, et al.
(författare)
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Quantitative assessment of fire and vegetation properties in simulations with fire-enabled vegetation models from the Fire Model Intercomparison Project
- 2020
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Ingår i: Geoscientific Model Development. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1991-959X .- 1991-9603. ; 13:7, s. 3299-3318
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Global fire-vegetation models are widely used to assess impacts of environmental change on fire regimes and the carbon cycle and to infer relationships between climate, land use and fire. However, differences in model structure and parameterizations, in both the vegetation and fire components of these models, could influence overall model performance, and to date there has been limited evaluation of how well different models represent various aspects of fire regimes. The Fire Model Intercomparison Project (FireMIP) is coordinating the evaluation of state-of-the-art global fire models, in order to improve projections of fire characteristics and fire impacts on ecosystems and human societies in the context of global environmental change. Here we perform a systematic evaluation of historical simulations made by nine FireMIP models to quantify their ability to reproduce a range of fire and vegetation benchmarks. The FireMIP models simulate a wide range in global annual total burnt area (39-536 Mha) and global annual fire carbon emission (0.91-4.75 Pg C yr-1) for modern conditions (2002-2012), but most of the range in burnt area is within observational uncertainty (345-468 Mha). Benchmarking scores indicate that seven out of nine FireMIP models are able to represent the spatial pattern in burnt area. The models also reproduce the seasonality in burnt area reasonably well but struggle to simulate fire season length and are largely unable to represent interannual variations in burnt area. However, models that represent cropland fires see improved simulation of fire seasonality in the Northern Hemisphere. The three FireMIP models which explicitly simulate individual fires are able to reproduce the spatial pattern in number of fires, but fire sizes are too small in key regions, and this results in an underestimation of burnt area. The correct representation of spatial and seasonal patterns in vegetation appears to correlate with a better representation of burnt area. The two older fire models included in the FireMIP ensemble (LPJ-GUESS-GlobFIRM, MC2) clearly perform less well globally than other models, but it is difficult to distinguish between the remaining ensemble members; some of these models are better at representing certain aspects of the fire regime; none clearly outperforms all other models across the full range of variables assessed.
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| 4. |
- Wu, Minchao, et al.
(författare)
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Sensitivity of burned area in Europe to climate change, atmospheric CO2 levels, and demography: A comparison of two fire-vegetation models
- 2015
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Ingår i: Journal of Geophysical Research - Biogeosciences. - 2169-8953. ; 120:11, s. 2256-2272
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Global environmental changes and human activity influence wildland fires worldwide, but the relative importance of the individual factors varies regionally and their interplay can be difficult to disentangle. Here we evaluate projected future changes in burned area at the European and sub-European scale, and we investigate uncertainties in the relative importance of the determining factors. We simulated future burned area with LPJ-GUESS-SIMFIRE, a patch-dynamic global vegetation model with a semiempirical fire model, and LPJmL-SPITFIRE, a dynamic global vegetation model with a process-based fire model. Applying a range of future projections that combine different scenarios for climate changes, enhanced CO2 concentrations, and population growth, we investigated the individual and combined effects of these drivers on the total area and regions affected by fire in the 21st century. The two models differed notably with respect to the dominating drivers and underlying processes. Fire-vegetation interactions and socioeconomic effects emerged as important uncertainties for future burned area in some European regions. Burned area of eastern Europe increased in both models, pointing at an emerging new fire-prone region that should gain further attention for future fire management.
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| 5. |
- Simpson, David, 1961, et al.
(författare)
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Ozone - the persistent menace; interactions with the N cycle and climate change
- 2014
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Ingår i: Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability. - : Elsevier BV. - 1877-3435. ; 9-10, s. 9-19
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Tropospheric ozone is involved in a complex web of interactions with other atmospheric gases and particles, and through ecosystem interactions with the N-cycle and climate change. Ozone itself is a greenhouse gas, causing warming, and reductions in biomass and carbon sequestration caused by ozone provide a further indirect warming effect. Ozone also has cooling effects, however, for example, through impacts on aerosols and diffuse radiation. Ecosystems are both a source of ozone precursors (especially of hydrocarbons, but also nitrogen oxides), and a sink through deposition processes. The interactions with vegetation, atmospheric chemistry and aerosols are complex, and only partially understood. Levels and patterns of global exposure to ozone may change dramatically over the next 50 years, impacting global warming, air quality, global food production and ecosystem function.
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| 6. |
- Tchebakova, N. M., et al.
(författare)
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Energy and Mass Exchange and the Productivity of Main Siberian Ecosystems (from Eddy Covariance Measurements). 2. Carbon Exchange and Productivity
- 2015
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Ingår i: Biology Bulletin of the Russian Academy of Science. - 1062-3590. ; 42:6, s. 579-588
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Direct measurements of CO2 fluxes by the eddy covariance method have demonstrated that the examined middle-taiga pine forest, raised bog, true steppe, and southern tundra along the Yenisei meridian (similar to 90 degrees E) are carbon sinks of different capacities according to annual output. The tundra acts as a carbon sink starting from June; forest and bog, from May; and steppe, from the end of April. In transitional seasons and winter, the ecosystems are a weak source of carbon; this commences from September in the tundra, from October in the forest and bog, and from November in the steppe. The photosynthetic productivity of forest and steppe ecosystems, amounting to 480-530 g C/(m(2) year), exceeds by 2-2.5 times that of bogs and tundras, 200-220 g C/(m(2) year). The relationships between the heat balance structure and CO2 exchange are shown. Possible feedback of carbon exchange between the ecosystems and atmosphere as a result of climate warming in the region are assessed.
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| 7. |
- Wolf, Annett, et al.
(författare)
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Process-based estimates of terrestrial ecosystem isoprene emissions : incorporating the effects of a direct CO2-isoprene interaction
- 2007
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Ingår i: Atmospheric Chemistry And Physics. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1680-7316 .- 1680-7324. ; 7:1, s. 31-53
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In recent years evidence has emerged that the amount of isoprene emitted from a leaf is affected by the CO2 growth environment. Many - though not all - laboratory experiments indicate that emissions increase significantly at below-ambient CO2 concentrations and decrease when concentrations are raised to above-ambient. A small number of process-based leaf isoprene emission models can reproduce this CO2 stimulation and inhibition. These models are briefly reviewed, and their performance in standard conditions compared with each other and to an empirical algorithm. One of the models was judged particularly useful for incorporation into a dynamic vegetation model framework, LPJ-GUESS, yielding a tool that allows the interactive effects of climate and increasing CO2 concentration on vegetation distribution, productivity, and leaf and ecosystem isoprene emissions to be explored. The coupled vegetation dynamics-isoprene model is described and used here in a mode particularly suited for the ecosystem scale, but it can be employed at the global level as well. Annual and/or daily isoprene emissions simulated by the model were evaluated against flux measurements ( or model estimates that had previously been evaluated with flux data) from a wide range of environments, and agreement between modelled and simulated values was generally good. By using a dynamic vegetation model, effects of canopy composition, disturbance history, or trends in CO2 concentration can be assessed. We show here for five model test sites that the suggested CO2-inhibition of leaf-isoprene metabolism can be large enough to offset increases in emissions due to CO2-stimulation of vegetation productivity and leaf area growth. When effects of climate change are considered atop the effects of atmospheric composition the interactions between the relevant processes will become even more complex. The CO2-isoprene inhibition may have the potential to significantly dampen the expected steep increase of ecosystem isoprene emission in a future, warmer atmosphere with higher CO2 levels; this effect raises important questions for projections of future atmospheric chemistry, and its connection to the terrestrial vegetation and carbon cycle.
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| 8. |
- Li, Wei, et al.
(författare)
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Land-use and land-cover change carbon emissions between 1901 and 2012 constrained by biomass observations
- 2017
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Ingår i: Biogeosciences. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1726-4170 .- 1726-4189. ; 14:22, s. 5053-5067
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The use of dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) to estimate CO2 emissions from land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) offers a new window to account for spatial and temporal details of emissions and for ecosystem processes affected by LULCC. One drawback of LULCC emissions from DGVMs, however, is lack of observation constraint. Here, we propose a new method of using satellite-and inventory-based biomass observations to constrain historical cumulative LULCC emissions (E-LUC(c)) from an ensemble of nine DGVMs based on emerging relationships between simulated vegetation biomass and E-LUC(c). This method is applicable on the global and regional scale. The original DGVM estimates of E-LUC(c) range from 94 to 273 PgC during 1901-2012. After constraining by current biomass observations, we derive a best estimate of 155 +/- 50 PgC (1 sigma Gaussian error). The constrained LULCC emissions are higher than prior DGVM values in tropical regions but significantly lower in North America. Our emergent constraint approach independently verifies the median model estimate by biomass observations, giving support to the use of this estimate in carbon budget assessments. The uncertainty in the constrained Ec LUC is still relatively large because of the uncertainty in the biomass observations, and thus reduced uncertainty in addition to increased accuracy in biomass observations in the future will help improve the constraint. This constraint method can also be applied to evaluate the impact of land-based mitigation activities.
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| 9. |
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| 10. |
- Oberpriller, Johannes, et al.
(författare)
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Climate and parameter sensitivity and induced uncertainties in carbon stock projections for European forests (using LPJ-GUESS 4.0)
- 2022
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Ingår i: Geoscientific Model Development. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1991-959X .- 1991-9603. ; 15:16, s. 6495-6519
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Understanding uncertainties and sensitivities of projected ecosystem dynamics under environmental change is of immense value for research and climate change policy. Here, we analyze sensitivities (change in model outputs per unit change in inputs) and uncertainties (changes in model outputs scaled to uncertainty in inputs) of vegetation dynamics under climate change, projected by a state-of-the-art dynamic vegetation model (LPJ-GUESS v4.0) across European forests (the species Picea abies, Fagus sylvatica and Pinus sylvestris), considering uncertainties of both model parameters and environmental drivers. We find that projected forest carbon fluxes are most sensitive to photosynthesis-, water-, and mortality-related parameters, while predictive uncertainties are dominantly induced by environmental drivers and parameters related to water and mortality. The importance of environmental drivers for predictive uncertainty increases with increasing temperature. Moreover, most of the interactions of model inputs (environmental drivers and parameters) are between environmental drivers themselves or between parameters and environmental drivers. In conclusion, our study highlights the importance of environmental drivers not only as contributors to predictive uncertainty in their own right but also as modifiers of sensitivities and thus uncertainties in other ecosystem processes. Reducing uncertainty in mortality-related processes and accounting for environmental influence on processes should therefore be a focus in further model development.
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