| 1. |
- Koenigk, Torben, et al.
(författare)
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Arctic climate change in 21st century CMIP5 simulations with EC-Earth
- 2012
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Ingår i: Climate Dynamics. - : Springer-Verlag New York. - 0930-7575 .- 1432-0894. ; 40:11-12
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Arctic climate change is analyzed in anensemble of future projection simulations performed withthe global coupled climate model EC-Earth2.3. EC-Earthsimulates the twentieth century Arctic climate relativelywell but the Arctic is about 2 K too cold and the sea icethickness and extent are overestimated. In the twenty-firstcentury, the results show a continuation and strengtheningof the Arctic trends observed over the recent decades,which leads to a dramatically changed Arctic climate,especially in the high emission scenario RCP8.5. Theannually averaged Arctic mean near-surface temperatureincreases by 12 K in RCP8.5, with largest warming in theBarents Sea region. The warming is most pronounced inwinter and autumn and in the lower atmosphere. The Arcticwinter temperature inversion is reduced in all scenarios anddisappears in RCP8.5. The Arctic becomes ice free inSeptember in all RCP8.5 simulations after a rapid reductionevent without recovery around year 2060. Taking intoaccount the overestimation of ice in the twentieth century,our model results indicate a likely ice-free Arctic inSeptember around 2040. Sea ice reductions are most pronouncedin the Barents Sea in all RCPs, which lead to themost dramatic changes in this region. Here, surface heatfluxes are strongly enhanced and the cloudiness is substantiallydecreased. The meridional heat flux into theArctic is reduced in the atmosphere but increases in theocean. This oceanic increase is dominated by an enhancedheat flux into the Barents Sea, which strongly contributes tothe large sea ice reduction and surface-air warming in thisregion. Increased precipitation and river runoff lead to morefreshwater input into the Arctic Ocean. However, most ofthe additional freshwater is stored in the Arctic Ocean whilethe total Arctic freshwater export only slightly increases.
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| 2. |
- Prytherch, John, 1980-, et al.
(författare)
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Central Arctic Ocean surface-atmosphere exchange of CO2 and CH4 constrained by direct measurements
- 2024
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Ingår i: Biogeosciences. - : Copernicus Publications. - 1726-4170 .- 1726-4189. ; 21:2, s. 671-688
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The central Arctic Ocean (CAO) plays an important role in the global carbon cycle, but the current and future exchange of the climate-forcing trace gases methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2) between the CAO and the atmosphere is highly uncertain. In particular, there are very few observations of near-surface gas concentrations or direct air-sea CO2 flux estimates and no previously reported direct air-sea CH4 flux estimates from the CAO. Furthermore, the effect of sea ice on the exchange is not well understood. We present direct measurements of the air-sea flux of CH4 and CO2, as well as air-snow fluxes of CO2 in the summertime CAO north of 82.5 N from the Synoptic Arctic Survey (SAS) expedition carried out on the Swedish icebreaker Oden in 2021. Measurements of air-sea CH4 and CO2 flux were made using floating chambers deployed in leads accessed from sea ice and from the side of Oden, and air-snow fluxes were determined from chambers deployed on sea ice. Gas transfer velocities determined from fluxes and surface-water-dissolved gas concentrations exhibited a weaker wind speed dependence than existing parameterisations, with a median sea-ice lead gas transfer rate of 2.5cmh-1 applicable over the observed 10m wind speed range (1-11ms-1). The average observed air-sea CO2 flux was -7.6mmolm-2d-1, and the average air-snow CO2 flux was -1.1mmolm-2d-1. Extrapolating these fluxes and the corresponding sea-ice concentrations gives an August and September flux for the CAO of -1.75mmolm-2d-1, within the range of previous indirect estimates. The average observed air-sea CH4 flux of 3.5μmolm-2d-1, accounting for sea-ice concentration, equates to an August and September CAO flux of 0.35μmolm-2d-1, lower than previous estimates and implying that the CAO is a very small (‰ 1%) contributor to the Arctic flux of CH4 to the atmosphere.
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| 3. |
- Achtert, P., et al.
(författare)
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Measurement of wind profiles by motion-stabilised ship-borne Doppler lidar
- 2015
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Ingår i: Atmospheric Measurement Techniques. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1867-1381 .- 1867-8548. ; 8:11, s. 4993-5007
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Three months of Doppler lidar wind measurements were obtained during the Arctic Cloud Summer Experiment on the icebreakerOden during the summer of 2014. Such ship-borne Doppler measurements require active stabilisation to remove the effects of ship motion. We demonstrate that the combination of a commercial Doppler lidar with a custom-made motion-stabilisation platform enables the retrieval of wind profiles in the Arctic atmospheric boundary layer during both cruising and ice-breaking with statistical uncertainties comparable to land-based measurements. This held true particularly within the atmospheric boundary layer even though the overall aerosol load was very low. Motion stabilisation was successful for high wind speeds in open water and the resulting wave conditions. It allows for the retrieval of vertical winds with a random error below 0.2 m s−1. The comparison of lidar-measured wind and radio soundings gives a mean bias of 0.3 m s−1 (2°) and a mean standard deviation of 1.1 m s−1 (12°) for wind speed (wind direction). The agreement for wind direction degrades with height. The combination of a motion-stabilised platform with a low-maintenance autonomous Doppler lidar has the potential to enable continuous long-term high-resolution ship-based wind profile measurements over the oceans.
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| 4. |
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| 5. |
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| 6. |
- Birch, C. E., et al.
(författare)
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Modelling atmospheric structure, cloud and their response to CCN in the central Arctic : ASCOS case studies
- 2012
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Ingår i: Atmospheric Chemistry And Physics. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1680-7316 .- 1680-7324. ; 12:7, s. 3419-3435
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Observations made during late summer in the central Arctic Ocean, as part of the Arctic Summer Cloud Ocean Study (ASCOS), are used to evaluate cloud and vertical temperature structure in the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM). The observation period can be split into 5 regimes; the first two regimes had a large number of frontal systems, which were associated with deep cloud. During the remainder of the campaign a layer of low-level cloud occurred, typical of central Arctic summer conditions, along with two periods of greatly reduced cloud cover. The short-range operational NWP forecasts could not accurately reproduce the observed variations in near-surface temperature. A major source of this error was found to be the temperature-dependant surface albedo parameterisation scheme. The model reproduced the low-level cloud layer, though it was too thin, too shallow, and in a boundary-layer that was too frequently well-mixed. The model was also unable to reproduce the observed periods of reduced cloud cover, which were associated with very low cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations (< 1 cm(-3)). As with most global NWP models, the MetUM does not have a prognostic aerosol/cloud scheme but uses a constant CCN concentration of 100 cm(-3) over all marine environments. It is therefore unable to represent the low CCN number concentrations and the rapid variations in concentration frequently observed in the central Arctic during late summer. Experiments with a single-column model configuration of the MetUM show that reducing model CCN number concentrations to observed values reduces the amount of cloud, increases the near-surface stability, and improves the representation of both the surface radiation fluxes and the surface temperature. The model is shown to be sensitive to CCN only when number concentrations are less than 10-20 cm(-3).
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| 7. |
- Birch, Cathryn, et al.
(författare)
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The performance of a global and mesoscale model over the central Arctic Ocean during the summer melt season
- 2009
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Ingår i: Journal of Geophysical Research : Atmospheres. ; 114, s. D13104-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Measurements of turbulent fluxes, clouds, radiation, and profiles of meanmeteorological parameters, obtained over an ice floe in the central Arctic Ocean during theArctic Ocean Experiment 2001, are used to evaluate the performance of U.K. Met OfficeUnified Model (MetUM) and Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System(COAMPS) in the lower atmosphere during late summer. Both the latest version of theMetUM and the version operational in 2001 are used in the comparison to gain aninsight as to whether updates to the model have improved its performance over the Arcticregion. As with previous model evaluations over the Arctic, the pressure, humidity,and wind fields are satisfactorily represented in all three models. The older version of theMetUM underpredicts the occurrence of low-level Arctic clouds, and the liquid and icecloud water partitioning is inaccurate compared to observations made during SHEBA.In the newer version, simulated ice and liquid water paths are improved, but theoccurrence of low-level clouds are overpredicted. Both versions overestimate the amountof radiative heat absorbed at the surface, leading to a significant feedback of errorsinvolving the surface albedo, which causes a large positive bias the surface temperature.Cloud forcing in COAMPS produces similar biases in the downwelling shortwave andlongwave radiation fluxes to those produced by UM(G25). The surface albedoparameterization is, however, more realistic, and thus, the total heat flux and surfacetemperature are more accurate for the majority of the observation period.
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| 8. |
- Bocquet, Florence, et al.
(författare)
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Comparing Estimates of Turbulence Based on Near-Surface Measurements in the Nocturnal Stable Boundary Layer
- 2011
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Ingår i: Boundary-layer Meteorology. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0006-8314 .- 1573-1472. ; 138:1, s. 43-60
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Tethered Lifting System (TLS) estimates of the dissipation rate of turbulent kinetic energy (epsilon) are reasonably well correlated with concurrent measurements of vertical velocity variance (sigma(2)(w)) obtained from sonic anemometers located on a nearby 60-m tower during the CASES-99 field experiment. Additional results in the first 100m of the nocturnal stable boundary layer confirm our earlier claim that the presence of weak but persistent background turbulence exists even during the most stable atmospheric conditions, where e can exhibit values as low as 10(-7) m(2) s(-3). We also present a set of empirical equations that incorporates TLS measurements of temperature, horizontal wind speed, and e to provide a proxy measurement for sigma(2)(w) at altitudes higher than tower heights.
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| 9. |
- Bulatovic, Ines, 1991-, et al.
(författare)
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Large-eddy simulation of a two-layer boundary-layer cloud system from the Arctic Ocean 2018 expedition
- 2023
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Ingår i: Atmospheric Chemistry And Physics. - 1680-7316 .- 1680-7324. ; 23:12, s. 7033-7055
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Climate change is particularly noticeable in the Arctic. The most common type of cloud at these latitudes is mixed-phase stratocumulus. These clouds occur frequently and persistently during all seasons and play a critical role in the Arctic energy budget. Previous observations in the central (north of 80∘ N) Arctic have shown a high occurrence of prolonged periods of a shallow, single-layer mixed-phase stratocumulus at the top of the boundary layer (BL; altitudes ∼ 300 to 400 m). However, recent observations from the summer of 2018 instead showed a prevalence of a two-layer boundary-layer cloud system. Here we use large-eddy simulation to examine the maintenance of one of the cloud systems observed in the summer of 2018 and the sensitivity of the cloud layers to different micro- and macro-scale parameters. We find that the model generally reproduces the observed thermodynamic structure well, with two near-neutrally stratified layers in the BL caused by a low cloud (located within the first few hundred meters) capped by a lower-altitude temperature inversion and an upper cloud layer (based around one kilometer or slightly higher) capped by the main temperature inversion of the BL. The simulated cloud structure is persistent unless there are low aerosol number concentrations (≤ 5 cm−3), which cause the upper cloud layer to dissipate, or high large-scale wind speeds (≥ 8.5 m s−1), which erode the lower inversion and the related cloud layer. The changes in cloud structure alter both the short- and longwave cloud radiative effect at the surface. This results in changes in the net radiative effect of the modeled cloud system, which can impact the surface melting or freezing. The findings highlight the importance of better understanding and representing aerosol sources and sinks over the central Arctic Ocean. Furthermore, they underline the significance of meteorological parameters, such as the large-scale wind speed, for maintaining the two-layer boundary-layer cloud structure encountered in the lower atmosphere of the central Arctic.
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| 10. |
- Chang, R. Y. -W, et al.
(författare)
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Aerosol composition and sources in the central Arctic Ocean during ASCOS
- 2011
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Ingår i: Atmospheric Chemistry And Physics. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1680-7316 .- 1680-7324. ; 11:20, s. 10619-10636
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Measurements of submicron aerosol chemical composition were made over the central Arctic Ocean from 5 August to 8 September 2008 as a part of the Arctic Summer Cloud Ocean Study (ASCOS) using an aerosol mass spectrometer (AMS). The median levels of sulphate and organics for the entire study were 0.051 and 0.055 mu gm(-3), respectively. Positive matrix factorisation was performed on the entire mass spectral time series and this enabled marine biogenic and continental sources of particles to be separated. These factors accounted for 33% and 36% of the sampled ambient aerosol mass, respectively, and they were both predominantly composed of sulphate, with 47% of the sulphate apportioned to marine biogenic sources and 48% to continental sources, by mass. Within the marine biogenic factor, the ratio of methane sulphonate to sulphate was 0.25+/-0.02, consistent with values reported in the literature. The organic component of the continental factor was more oxidised than that of the marine biogenic factor, suggesting that it had a longer photochemical lifetime than the organics in the marine biogenic factor. The remaining ambient aerosol mass was apportioned to an organic-rich factor that could have arisen from a combination of marine and continental sources. In particular, given that the factor does not correlate with common tracers of continental influence, we cannot rule out that the organic factor arises from a primary marine source.
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