1.
Akhter, Firoza, et al.
(författare)
Analysis of 220 Years of Floodplain Population Dynamics in the US at Different Spatial Scales
2021
Ingår i: Water. - : MDPI. - 2073-4441. ; 13:2
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat) abstract
In this study, we explore the long-term trends of floodplain population dynamics at different spatial scales in the contiguous United States (U.S.). We exploit different types of datasets from 1790-2010-i.e., decadal spatial distribution for the population density in the US, global floodplains dataset, large-scale data of flood occurrence and damage, and structural and nonstructural flood protection measures for the US. At the national level, we found that the population initially settled down within the floodplains and then spread across its territory over time. At the state level, we observed that flood damages and national protection measures might have contributed to a learning effect, which in turn, shaped the floodplain population dynamics over time. Finally, at the county level, other socio-economic factors such as local flood insurances, economic activities, and socio-political context may predominantly influence the dynamics. Our study shows that different influencing factors affect floodplain population dynamics at different spatial scales. These facts are crucial for a reliable development and implementation of flood risk management planning.
2.
Lindersson, Sara, et al.
(författare)
The wider the gap between rich and poor the higher the flood mortality
2023
Ingår i: Nature Sustainability. - : Springer Nature. - 2398-9629.
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat) abstract
Economic inequality is rising within many countries globally, and this can significantly influence the social vulnerability to natural hazards. We analysed income inequality and flood disasters in 67 middle- and high-income countries between 1990 and 2018 and found that unequal countries tend to suffer more flood fatalities. This study integrates geocoded mortality records from 573 major flood disasters with population and economic data to perform generalized linear mixed regression modelling. Our results show that the significant association between income inequality and flood mortality persists after accounting for the per-capita real gross domestic product, population size in flood-affected regions and other potentially confounding variables. The protective effect of increasing gross domestic product disappeared when accounting for income inequality and population size in flood-affected regions. On the basis of our results, we argue that the increasingly uneven distribution of wealth deserves more attention within international disaster-risk research and policy arenas.
3.
Ferdous, Md Ruknul, et al.
(författare)
Socio-hydrological spaces in the Jamuna River floodplain in Bangladesh
2018
Ingår i: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences. - : Copernicus Gesellschaft. - 1027-5606 .- 1607-7938. ; 22:10, s. 5159-5173
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat) abstract
Socio-hydrology aims to understand the dynamics and co-evolution of coupled human-water systems, with research consisting of generic models as well as specific case studies. In this paper, we propose a concept to help bridge the gap between these two types of socio-hydrological studies: socio-hydrological spaces (SHSs). A socio-hydrological space is a geographical area in a landscape. Its particular combination of hydrological and social features gives rise to the emergence of distinct interactions and dynamics (patterns) between society and water. Socio-hydrological research on human-flood interactions has found two generic responses, "fight" or "adapt". Distilling the patterns resulting from these responses in case studies provides a promising way to relate contextual specificities to the generic patterns described by conceptual models. Through the use of SHSs, different cases can be compared globally without aspiring to capturing them in a formal model. We illustrate the use of SHS for the Jamuna floodplain, Bangladesh. We use narratives and experiences of local experts and inhabitants to empirically describe and delimit SHS. We corroborated the resulting classification through the statistical analysis of primary data collected for the purpose (household surveys and focus group discussions) and secondary data (statistics, maps etc.). Our example of the use of SHSs shows that the concept draws attention to how historical patterns in the co-evolution of social behaviour, natural processes and technological interventions give rise to different landscapes, different styles of living and different ways of organising livelihoods. This provides a texture to the more generic patterns generated by socio-hydrological models, promising to make the resulting analysis more directly useful for decision makers. We propose that the usefulness of this concept in other floodplains, and for other socio-hydrological systems than floodplains, should be explored.
4.
Ferdous, Md Ruknul, et al.
(författare)
The interplay between structural flood protection, population density, and flood mortality along the Jamuna River, Bangladesh
2020
Ingår i: Regional Environmental Change. - : SPRINGER HEIDELBERG. - 1436-3798 .- 1436-378X. ; 20:1
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat) abstract
Levees protect floodplain areas from frequent flooding, but they can paradoxically contribute to more severe flood losses. The construction or reinforcement of levees can attract more assets and people in flood-prone area, thereby increasing the potential flood damage when levees eventually fail. Moreover, structural protection measures can generate a sense of complacency, which can reduce preparedness, thereby increasing flood mortality rates. We explore these phenomena in the Jamuna River floodplain in Bangladesh. In this study area, different levels of flood protection have co-existed alongside each other since the 1960s, with a levee being constructed only on the right bank and its maintenance being assured only in certain places. Primary and secondary data on population density, human settlements, and flood fatalities were collected to carry out a comparative analysis of two urban areas and two rural areas with different flood protection levels. We found that the higher the level of flood protection, the higher the increase of population density over the past decades as well as the number of assets exposed to flooding. Our results also show that flood mortality rates associated with the 2017 flooding in Bangladesh were lower in the areas with lower protection level. This empirical analysis of the unintended consequences of structural flood protection is relevant for the making of sustainable policies of disaster risk reduction and adaptation to climate change in rapidly changing environments.
5.
Michaelis, Tamara, et al.
(författare)
Capturing flood-risk dynamics with a coupled agent-based and hydraulic modelling framework
2020
Ingår i: Hydrological Sciences Journal. - : Taylor and Francis Ltd.. - 0262-6667 .- 2150-3435.
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat) abstract
Two-way interactions and feedback between hydrological and social processes in settled floodplains determine the complex human–flood system and change vulnerability over time. To focus on the dynamic role of individual and governmental decision making on flood-risk management, we developed and implemented a coupled agent-based and hydraulic modelling framework. Within this framework, household agents are located in a floodplain protected by a levee system. Individual behaviour is based on Protection Motivation Theory and includes the options to (1) not react to flood risk; (2) implement individual flood protection measures; or (3) file a complaint to the government. The government decides about reinforcing the levee system, compromising between a cost-benefit analysis and filed complaints from households. We found that individual decision making can significantly influence flood risk. In addition, the coupled agent-based and hydraulic modelling framework approach captures commonly observed socio-hydrological dynamics, namely levee and adaptation effects. It provides an explanatory tool for assessing spatial and temporal dynamics of flood risk in a socio-hydrological system.
6.
7.
Brandimarte, Luigia, et al.
(författare)
Relation Between the North-Atlantic Oscillation and Hydroclimatic Conditions in Mediterranean Areas
2011
Ingår i: Water Resources Management. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0920-4741 .- 1573-1650. ; 25:5, s. 1269-1279
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat) abstract
Mediterranean basins are known for their susceptibility to water stress conditions resulting from a reduction in winter-season precipitation. This region is also prone to the effects of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), a large-scale climatic pattern associated with a displacement of air mass between the arctic and the subtropical Atlantic. Even though previous studies have demonstrated the impact of the NAO on winter climate conditions in Europe and Northern Africa, it is still unclear to what extent the NAO is related to hydroclimatic patterns in Mediterranean areas and whether it can explain its recent drought history. To this end, this study investigates the interdependence between the NAO and winter precipitation, river flow and temperature in two Mediterranean regions: Southern Italy and Nile Delta (Egypt). The outcomes show the presence of significant connections between the NAO, winter rainfall and river discharge.
8.
Brandimarte, Luigia, et al.
(författare)
Uncertainty in design flood profiles derived by hydraulic modelling
2012
Ingår i: Hydrology Research. - : IWA Publishing. - 0029-1277 .- 2224-7955 .- 1998-9563. ; 43:6, s. 753-761
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat) abstract
The scientific literature has widely shown that hydraulic modelling is affected by many sources of uncertainty (e.g. model structure, input data, model parameters). However, when hydraulic models are used for engineering purposes (e.g. flood defense design), there is still a tendency to make a deterministic use of them. More specifically, the prediction of flood design profiles is often based on the outcomes of a calibrated hydraulic model. Despite the good results in model calibration, this prediction is affected by significant uncertainty, which is commonly considered by adding a freeboard to the simulated flood profile. A more accurate approach would require an explicit analysis of the sources of uncertainty affecting hydraulic modelling and design flood estimation. This paper proposes an alternative approach, which is based on the use of uncertain flood profiles, where the most significant sources of uncertainty are explicitly analyzed. An application to the Po river reach between Cremona and Borgoforte (Italy) is used to illustrate the proposed framework and compare it to the traditional approach. This paper shows that the deterministic approach underestimates the design flood profile and questions whether the freeboard, often arbitrarily defined, might lead to a false perception of additional safety levels.
9.
10.
Di Baldassarre, Giuliano, et al.
(författare)
Flood fatalities in Africa : From diagnosis to mitigation
2010
Ingår i: Geophysical Research Letters. - : American Geophysical Union (AGU). - 0094-8276 .- 1944-8007. ; 37:22
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat) abstract
Flood-related fatalities in Africa, as well as associated economic losses, have increased dramatically over the past half-century. There is a growing global concern about the need to identify the causes for such increased flood damages. To this end, we analyze a large, consistent and reliable dataset of floods in Africa. Identification of causes is not easy given the diverse economic settings, demographic distribution and hydro-climatic conditions of the African continent. On the other hand, many African river basins have a relatively low level of human disturbance and, therefore, provide a unique opportunity to analyze climatic effects on floods. We find that intensive and unplanned human settlements in flood-prone areas appears to be playing a major role in increasing flood risk. Timely and economically sustainable actions, such as the discouragement of human settlements in flood-prone areas and the introduction of early warning systems are, therefore, urgently needed.
