1.
Teutschbein, Claudia, 1985-, et al.
(författare)
Future drought propagation through the water-energy-food-ecosystem nexus : A Nordic perspective
2023
Ingår i: Journal of Hydrology. - : Elsevier. - 0022-1694 .- 1879-2707. ; 617
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat) abstract
Droughts can affect a multitude of public and private sectors, with impacts developing slowly over time. While droughts are traditionally quantified in relation to the hydrological components of the water cycle that they affect, this manuscript demonstrates a novel approach to assess future drought conditions through the lens of the water-energy-food-ecosystem (WEFE) nexus concept. To this end, a set of standardized drought indices specifically designed to represent different nexus sectors across 50 catchments in Sweden was computed based on an ensemble of past and future climate model simulations. Different patterns in the response of the four nexus sectors water, energy, food and ecosystem services to future climate change emerged, with different response times and drought durations across the sectors. These results offer new insights into the propagation of drought through the WEFE nexus in cold climates. They further suggest that future drought projections can be better geared towards decision makers by basing them on standardized drought indices that were specifically tailored to represent particular nexus sectors.
2.
Teutschbein, Claudia, 1985-, et al.
(författare)
Streamflow droughts in Sweden : Spatiotemporal patterns emerging from six decades of observations
2022
Ingår i: Journal of Hydrology. - : Elsevier. - 2214-5818. ; 42
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat) abstract
Study Region: SwedenStudy focus: Although Sweden has historically been a country abundant with water, observed changes in temperature and precipitation patterns during the past century have perturbed regional hydrologic regimes, including the severity, frequency and duration of streamflow droughts. This study utilizes the standardized streamflow index (SSI) and the threshold-level method to provide an unprecedented overview of spatiotemporal patterns of streamflow droughts in 50 Swedish catchments over the past six decades. The study catchments were categorized into five clusters, of which each was analyzed for changes in various drought characteristics over the period 1961–2020.New hydrological insights for the region: Multiple severe streamflow drought events were detected over the past 60 years. Remarkably, droughts in 1976 and 1996 were identified as the most extreme and wide-spread events, also compared to the latest 2018 drought. Southern catchments were generally more often and more severely affected than northern catchments. Our results suggest a wetting tendency over the past six decades across the entire country. This occurs in conjunction with less severe, shorter and less frequent droughts, especially during colder winter months. Only in the southernmost regions, a slight drying trend in spring and summer was found. Thus, we argue that a better understanding and regional management of streamflow droughts is essential to secure the needs of the environment, society and economy now and in the future.
3.
Ruangpan, Laddaporn, et al.
(författare)
Incorporating stakeholders’ preferences into a multi-criteria framework for planning large-scale Nature-Based Solutions
2020
Ingår i: Ambio. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0044-7447 .- 1654-7209.
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat) abstract
Hydro-meteorological risks are a growing issue for societies, economies and environments around the world. An effective, sustainable response to such risks and their future uncertainty requires a paradigm shift in our research and practical efforts. In this respect, Nature-Based Solutions (NBSs) offer the potential to achieve a more effective and flexible response to hydro-meteorological risks while also enhancing human well-being and biodiversity. The present paper describes a new methodology that incorporates stakeholders’ preferences into a multi-criteria analysis framework, as part of a tool for selecting risk mitigation measures. The methodology has been applied to Tamnava river basin in Serbia and Nangang river basin in Taiwan within the EC-funded RECONECT project. The results highlight the importance of involving stakeholders in the early stages of projects in order to achieve successful implementation of NBSs. The methodology can assist decision-makers in formulating desirable benefits and co-benefits and can enable a systematic and transparent NBSs planning process.
4.
Biella, Riccardo, et al.
(författare)
The 2022 Drought Needs to be a Turning Point for European Drought Risk Management
2024
Ingår i: Natural hazards and earth system sciences. - 1561-8633 .- 1684-9981.
Tidskriftsartikel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt) abstract
The 2022 European drought has underscored critical deficiencies in European water management. This paper explores these shortcomings and suggests a way forward for European drought risk management. Data for this study was gathered through a continent-wide survey of water managers involved in this event. The survey collected 481 responses from 30 European countries and is comprised of 19 questions concerning sectorial impact in the regions of the responders and drought risk management practices of their organizations. Information from the survey is enriched with climate-related information to offer a comprehensive overview of drought risk management in Europe. Our research focuses on four key aspects: the increasing risk of drought, its spatial and temporal impacts, current drought risk management approaches, and the evolution of drought risk management across the continent. Our findings reveal a consensus on the growing risk of drought, which is confounded by the rising frequency and intensity of droughts. While the 2022 event affected most of the continent, our findings show significant regional disparities in drought risk management capacity among the various countries. Our analysis indicates that current drought risk management measures often rely on short-term operational concerns, particularly in agriculture-dominated economies, leading to potentially maladaptive practices. An overall positive trend in drought risk management, with organizations showing increased awareness and preparedness, indicates how this crisis can be the ideal moment to mainstream European-wide drought risk management. Consequently, we advocate for a European Drought Directive, to harmonize and enforce drought risk management policies across the continent. This directive should promote a systemic, integrated, and long-term risk management perspective. The directive should also set clear guidelines for drought risk management at the national level and for cross-boundary drought collaboration.
5.
Biella, Riccardo, et al.
(författare)
The 2022 Drought Shows the Importance of Preparedness in European Drought Risk Management
2024
Ingår i: Natural hazards and earth system sciences. - 1561-8633 .- 1684-9981.
Tidskriftsartikel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt) abstract
Droughts in Europe are becoming increasingly frequent and severe, with the 2022 drought surpassing previous records and causing widespread socio-economic impacts. This study employs a Europe-wide survey that integrates data from 481 respondents from 30 European countries, involved in the management of the 2022 European drought, together with hydroclimatic data (i.e., Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index; SPEI), to provide a holistic assessment of the effect of drought preparedness on response effectiveness and timeliness during the 2022 drought through statistical methods. It specifically assesses the role of forecasting systems and Drought Management Plans (DMPs) in improving preparedness and in facilitating more effective and timely responses. Additionally, the study investigates how drought management practices and awareness have evolved as a consequence of the 2018 European drought and how recent experiences shape water managers’ perceptions. The findings emphasize the urgent need for a standardized, continent-wide drought risk management coordination to address the multifaceted nature of drought risk by integrating climatic and societal factors, and advocates for a Drought Directive as a means to achieve it. This research aims to inform policy development towards sustainable and holistic drought risk management, highlighting the crucial roles of preparedness, awareness, and adaptive strategies in mitigating future drought impacts.
6.
Erić, Ranka, et al.
(författare)
Rainfall-runoff simulations in the Lukovska River Basin with the HEC-HMS model
2019
Ingår i: Glasnik Sumarskog fakulteta. ; :119, s. 33-60
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat) abstract
Hydrologic models are important for effective water resources management at a basin level. This paper describes an application of the HEC-HMS hydrologic model for simulations of flood hydrographs in the Lukovska River basin. Five flood events observed at the Merćez stream gauge were available for modelling purposes. These events are from two distinct periods and two seasons with different prevailing runoff generation mechanisms. Hence the events are assigned to either “present†or “pastâ€, and “spring†or “summer†group. The optimal parameter sets of each group are obtained by averaging the optimal parameters for individual events within the group. To assess model transferability, its applicability for simulation of flood events which are not considered in the model calibration, a cross-validation is performed. The results indicate that model parameters vary across the events, and that parameter transfer generally leads to considerable errors in hydrograph peaks and volumes, with the exception of simulation of summer events with “spring†parameters. Based on these results, recommendations for event-based modeling are given.
7.
Ivković, Marija, et al.
(författare)
Improved input to distributed hydrologic model in areas with sparse subdaily rainfall data using multivariate daily rainfall disaggregation
2018
Ingår i: Journal of Hydroinformatics. - : IWA Publishing. - 1464-7141 .- 1465-1734.
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat) abstract
Flood forecasting relies on good quality of observed and forecasted rainfall. In Serbia, the recording rain gauge network is sparse and rainfall data mainly come from dense non-recording rain gauges. This is not beneficial for flood forecasting in smaller catchments and short-duration events, when hydrologic models operating on subdaily scale are applied. Moreover, differences in rainfall amounts from two types of gauges can be considerable, which is common in operational hydrological practice. This paper examines the possibility of including daily rainfall data from dense observation networks in flood forecasting based on subdaily data, using the extreme flood event in the Kolubara catchment in May 2014 as a case study. Daily rainfall from a dense observation network is disaggregated to hourly scale using the MuDRain multivariate disaggregation software. The disaggregation procedure results in well-reproduced rainfall dynamics and adjusts rainfall volume to the values from the non-recording gauges. The fully distributed wflow_hbv model, which is under development as a forecasting tool for the Kolubara catchment, is used for flood simulations with two alternative hourly rainfall data. The results show an improvement when the disaggregated rainfall from denser network is used, thus indicating the significance of better representation of rainfall temporal and spatial variability for flood forecasting.
8.
Jonsson, Elise, et al.
(författare)
An introduction to data-driven modelling of the Water-Energy-Food-Ecosystem nexus
2024
Ingår i: Environmental Modelling & Software. - : Elsevier. - 1364-8152 .- 1873-6726. ; 181
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat) abstract
Attaining resource security in the water, energy, food, and ecosystem (WEFE) sectors, the WEFE nexus, is paramount. This necessitates the use of quantitative modelling, which presents many challenges, as this is a complex system acting at the intersection of the physical- and social sciences. However, as WEFE data is becoming more widely available, data-driven methods of modelling this system are becoming increasingly viable. Here, we discuss two main problems in WEFE nexus modelling: system identification and control. System identification uses Machine Learning algorithms to obtain dynamical models from data and have shown promise in many disciplines with similar characteristics as the nexus. Meanwhile, control algorithms manipulate a system to achieve objectives and are becoming instrumental in shaping nexus policy. Despite the promise of these algorithms, data-driven modelling is a vast and daunting field, and so here we provide an introductory overview of this field, with emphasis on nexus applications.
9.
Jovanović, Miodrag, et al.
(författare)
Kartiranje rizika od poplava (Flood Risk Mapping)
2009
Ingår i: Vodoprivreda. ; 41:1-6, s. 31-45
Tidskriftsartikel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt) abstract
This article considers the methodology for mapping flood zones, flood damages and flood risk. The emphasis is on synthetic flood damage functions, used in determination of the expected annual damage, as the principal parameter for quantification of the flood risk. The methodogy is illustrated by two practical examples.
10.
Plavšić, Jasna, et al.
(författare)
Accuracy of Runoff Timing in Simulations with the Hydrologic Models
2018
Ingår i: Proc. 6th Int. Conf. Contemporary Achievements in Civil Engineering, 2018. - Subotica, Serbia.
Konferensbidrag (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt) abstract
Hydrological models are developed to simulate the catchment response from the meteorological data and have numerous practical applications. The hydrologic models are also frequently applied in the assessment of the climate change impacts to provide hydrologic simulations with projections of climate variables under some specified climate change scenario. To obtain reliable projections, robust hydrologic models are required. Model efficiency is usually quantified in terms of the performance measures or hydrologic signatures such as mean flows, flow duration curve or seasonal runoff distribution. The timing of runoff is rarely considered as a signature although it is of crucial importance when assessing the effects of climate change such as the earlier occurrence of floods. In this paper, we evaluate the performance of the hydrologic model for the Toplica River basin in reproducing different signatures including the runoff timing. The results show good model performance, which is, however, not supported by the agreement of the observed and simulated runoff timing indicators. We therefore strongly suggest enclosure of these timing indicators in a model evaluation procedure, especially for the models intended for assessment of climate change impacts.… Read more
